VPEL Results

What do u think about VPEL results?

Disappointing. Drop in Revenue & Profits

Are you looking at this quarter VPEL group resutls. I see both revenue and profits marginally up !

Hawk Eye wrote:Disappointing. Drop in Revenue & Profits

Annualized EPS above Rs 1.00
  

Hawk Eye wrote:Disappointing. Drop in Revenue & Profits

What I see,

Group -Net profit for the period

Quarter-31 Dec 2013-  141 mn -15 % increase.
9 mths -31 Dec 2013 -  662 mn - 135% increase

Disappointing ?  ( or are we looking at the same Report)

We are looking at the same report, but i take a different view.

Please explain.

Hawk Eye wrote:We are looking at the same report, but i take a different view.

Hawk Eye wrote:Disappointing. Drop in Revenue & Profits

Had a hard look , tend to agree with you.
Any idea , what constitute cost of sales? Why it has not declined with turnover ?

If you compare Q to Q

Revenue-->Jun-13-->355Mn
Revenue-->Jun-12-->150Mn
136% increase

Revenue-->Sep-13-->371Mn
Revenue-->Sep-12-->216Mn
72% increase

Revenue-->Dec-13-->232Mn
Revenue-->Dec-12-->219Mn
Only 6 % increase

I believe the cumulative good results are due to abnormal weather patterns in first 2 qtrs. Therefore it cannot sustain the momentum, unless its justified with current cumulative earnings. march is normally a dry period

If they normally do above 250Mn it will also improve the GP margins and net

My qty /my price/my strategy says December could have been something better with a Profit of 170Mn for a good run  

further Elnino is feared in winter. and expected to last for 02 years from 2014-2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/el-nino-may-develop-as-most-models-predict-pacific-ocean-warming.html?cmpid=yhoo

.............An El Nino weather pattern, which can parch Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America, may occur in the coming months as the Pacific Ocean warms, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.............

............Depending on the size of the El Nino, it may push 2014 and, more likely, 2015 up the rankings of warmest years on record, the Goddard Institute’s Schmidt said on a conference call. The Earth’s warmest years, 2010 and 2005, were associated with the weather pattern........

I see how you are looking at his now.  
I don't know the Dec situation for VPEL.  Was there continous water supply to VPEL .  

If you look at some Htdro shares last quarter when VPEL had high revenue, the relative performace of them were much lesser.

So in essense ,  I treat Hydro power and Plantation shares  is a different way.  Thing can change a lot quickly as there are factors beyond human control at times.

A market run can trigger this sector. Atleast the NAVs are growing slowly. VPEL gives huge dividneds so NAV doesn't jump much . But atleast those who held VPEL got above savings rates through dividends.

Hawk Eye wrote:If you compare Q to Q

Revenue-->Jun-13-->355Mn
Revenue-->Jun-12-->150Mn
136% increase

Revenue-->Sep-13-->371Mn
Revenue-->Sep-12-->216Mn
72% increase

Revenue-->Dec-13-->232Mn
Revenue-->Dec-12-->219Mn
Only 6 % increase

I believe the cumulative good results are due to abnormal weather patterns in first 2 qtrs. Therefore it cannot sustain the momentum, unless its justified with current cumulative earnings. march is normally a dry period

My qty /my price/my strategy says December could have been something better with a Profit of 170Mn for a good run  

further Elnino is feared in winter. and expected to last for 02 years from 2014-2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/el-nino-may-develop-as-most-models-predict-pacific-ocean-warming.html?cmpid=yhoo

.............An El Nino weather pattern, which can parch Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America, may occur in the coming months as the Pacific Ocean warms, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.............

............Depending on the size of the El Nino, it may push 2014 and, more likely, 2015 up the rankings of warmest years on record, the Goddard Institute’s Schmidt said on a conference call. The Earth’s warmest years, 2010 and 2005, were associated with the weather pattern........

slstock wrote:I see how you are looking at his now.  
I don't know the Dec situation for VPEL.  Was there continous water supply to VPEL .  

If you look at some Htdro shares last quarter when VPEL had high revenue, the relative performace of them were much lesser.

So in essense ,  I treat Hydro power and Plantation shares  is a different way.  Thing can change a lot quickly as there are factors beyond human control at times.

A market run  can trigger this sector.  Atleast the NAVs are growing slowly.  VPEL gives huge dividneds so NAV doesn't jump much . But atleast  those who held VPEL  got above savings rates through dividends.

Hawk Eye wrote:If you compare Q to Q

Revenue-->Jun-13-->355Mn
Revenue-->Jun-12-->150Mn
136% increase

Revenue-->Sep-13-->371Mn
Revenue-->Sep-12-->216Mn
72% increase

Revenue-->Dec-13-->232Mn
Revenue-->Dec-12-->219Mn
Only 6 % increase

I believe the cumulative good results are due to abnormal weather patterns in first 2 qtrs. Therefore it cannot sustain the momentum, unless its justified with current cumulative earnings. march is normally a dry period

My qty /my price/my strategy says December could have been something better with a Profit of 170Mn for a good run  

further Elnino is feared in winter. and expected to last for 02 years from 2014-2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/el-nino-may-develop-as-most-models-predict-pacific-ocean-warming.html?cmpid=yhoo

.............An El Nino weather pattern, which can parch Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America, may occur in the coming months as the Pacific Ocean warms, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.............

............Depending on the size of the El Nino, it may push 2014 and, more likely, 2015 up the rankings of warmest years on record, the Goddard Institute’s Schmidt said on a conference call. The Earth’s warmest years, 2010 and 2005, were associated with the weather pattern........

I am adjusting my exposure to the majority view..  

knockknobbler wrote:

Hawk Eye wrote:Disappointing. Drop in Revenue & Profits

What I see,

Group -Net profit for the period

Quarter-31 Dec 2013-  141 mn -15 % increase.
9 mths -31 Dec 2013 -  662 mn - 135% increase

Disappointing ?  ( or are we looking at the same Report)

They earned during the wet season and distribute the profits. We had seen good dividends in last year. Still they can declare some dividends, but now we are into the dry weather. January 2014 was a bad month for hydro. 

http://research.srilankaequity.com/t858-valuation-guide-to-power-sector-2nd-q-2013-14

I can see the many points of view of the expert of this forum regarding VPEL.
It seems... its a counter with lots of potential and good to view.....
But I may have to keep little longer period to drop them with some gain.....
I am experting above 7/- within 2-3 months..... but Alnino may destroy my dream..... but dividend may keep me cool.....!!!