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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » ? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend

? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend

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1? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend  Empty ? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:55 pm

Chanuque

Chanuque
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
First factor is that the US economy recovers earlier than the US Federal Reserve thought and US fund managers are more confident of re-investing their funds back on US companies. Thus, they are pulling out their investments from all the emerging economies including from Sri Lanka. While profit taking, they are disposing our blue chip equities as COMB | JKH and so on to re-invest in the US.
As the hard currencies ( mainly USD ) outflow, LKR will be more volatile in coming days and I can be sure CBSL will do the needful for that.
The only thing agonizes me as an investor is that the minority interests at CSE are easily getting panicked and following the mass. ( which is not that intelligent thing to do )
Yet, we have to get ready for the regional poll related smoke and the UNHRC talks related set backs. If we think wisely, collect at the right level and think of keeping them at least as medium term investments. I assure you then the market trajectory will be an obvious uptrend with cyclic drops.
PS. DIAL is in the red territory because of the buyout of Hutch by Mobitel. ( M will be the market leader )

2? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend  Empty Re: ? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:56 pm

sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chanuque wrote:
PS. DIAL is in the red territory because of the buyout of Hutch by Mobitel. ( M will be the market leader )

Dial will continue to be the Market Leader in Mobile and small screen broadband markets.

Hutch acquisition will give GSM 900 frequency to Mobitel - which will give them an advantage in the broadband sphere as their current frequency has issues/limitations.

However it may not come cheap for M  Twisted Evil 

3? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend  Empty Re: ? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:55 am

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
*Most wall street funds are investing in emerging markets, so they may be considering arbitrage opportunities. (Same risk, different ER), so they will sell low ER assets in our market and will buy high ER assets in another market which have same risk levels.

*In srilanka reduced interest means increase of money supply and increase the liquidity, but in USA, the interest rate is powerless and they using quantitative easing to control economy. Federal buying assets/bonds from banks if they want to increase the liquidity and inturn it expand the credit to the banking system which increase the economic growth.

*If the federal reduce the buying of assets/bonds, it means if they tapering, then the liquidity falls and interest rates going up.


*Now what is happening is federal reduce the buying of assets/bonds from the markets, so liquidity falls and lead to less credit. So investors anticipating interest rates to go up, so they will sell off our risky equities and will invest in fixed income securities in USA.


hope i elaborate clearly Smile

4? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend  Empty Re: ? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:21 am

Chanuque

Chanuque
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote: .. *Most wall street funds are investing in emerging markets, so they may be considering arbitrage opportunities. ..
Mark, many thanks for your clarification. Yes, the USFR is attempting to raise the interest rates in the US as they are confident on their economy. Now, Sri Lanka makes sure the momentum of its exports and reduction of its imports to reposition itself with the US move. Do not let Sri Lanka depend on heavily import oriented market economy. ( let USD inflow with SLCB reserve in order to slash the inflation ) Encourage the local HNWIs to keep the market running as many of Sri Lankan equities are becoming undervalued.

5? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend  Empty Re: ? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:44 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
I think kabba may try to stop this downtrend using EPF, ETF by buying over valued counters for long term.

6? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend  Empty Re: ? Why CSE Is Having This Downtrend Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:20 am

anjelo

anjelo
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
even though what ever said and done. EPF and ETF might be live savers for the small trader

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