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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » The Forum

The Forum

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1The Forum  Empty The Forum Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:06 pm

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi Fellow Forum members,

I thought I should pen a few words during these turbulent times i.e Bear Run and Forum change. The FED taper was coming months ago and as a result we see foreign funds exiting the market, we can't say we were blind sided, we were optimistic in thinking that the locals will take the baton and take the bull by it's horn. It might change tomorrow for the better or might go down further depending on how much more foreign sales are there.

I remember during the credit bubble (when brokers had extended credit to all and sundry sometime upto 500% and more ) everyone was speculating saying "this much more to go and that much more to go etc" some new the true picture and sold some decided to hold on and still have huge losses in their PF's , some played the market very well bought during ASPI 6000 days and sold when it hit 7500 exited and re entered when market crashed.

Even the biggest players burned their fingers, of course big players have money to burn, it was the poor retailers who were contemplating suicide and were kicked out from their homes for pawning jewellery and land to play the market that was predicted to hit 10000.

Fast forward and we are now talking about foreign sales. What trajectory the market will take no one can really say, some say because low interest rates the market looks attractive and locals should invest now. couple of days later and CSE has dropped continuously due to foreigners exiting. In the past too, people have said invest in fundamental shares, well if your a trader and bought JKH based on that, you will kicking your heels and thinking what's the difference between a JKH and a blue diamond during a severe bear ? it's all to do with timing some retailers would have already sold at a loss which might be a good thing as they can't take the pressure. some might be playing the bear and selling at a loss and buying again at lower prices. some might be hoping for JKH to drop to 150 to collect large quantities, what ever the reason it's our personal choice.

I sold LIOC on Friday at a great profit and entered JKH w23 at Rs.60. why did I do this and how could I afford to sell during such a bear very simple, I bought LIOC at lower levels and I was comfortable to sell , even though I had a lesser profit ( sold at 37 when I could have sold before, at 38, 39 or 40 when bull was prevailing) why did i buy JKH w 23 well I felt it was a good buy , I might be wrong heck it might go to 55, or 50 or better market might turn around and it might go to 70. other than LIOC which I sold my portfolio too is in the red. If I sell all my shares and get out now it's my personal choice. I know relatives who burned their fingers during the 7500 rise in the cse but who were full of praise when they were making thumping profits, the moment it crashed some lost millions, some still hold at a considerable loss, some have been forced to leave the CSE and never ever play the market because of their wives.

Think about your next move carefully, it all depends on your personal ability to manage your finances.

As for the forum, I remember there was some other forum that was closed down some years ago and I Happened to read comments on that and everyone was sad and it was as if there would not be another forum ever. Lo and behold this one pops up and now no one ever even talks about that forum. people sympathised with the owner of the shut down site and pledged their loyalty and like a lot of things in Lanka he was for gotten.

As much as I admired what a tireless and voluntary job the admins and mods did I personally felt that they sometimes probably got too carried away when implementing rules and sometimes acted as if the forum was their property . I have had a few arguments on this as well. Sometimes they might have had a right to act as if it was their property due to the sheer number of posts and time spent on nurturing the baby that is this forum, But in actual fact the owners were always independent and could do what ever when ever they pleased. The marriage of owners and mods/admins worked very well I guess for the previous owners, but nothing lasts forever and we have a new set of owners with a different set of management objectives and different management style. if this style will take this forum from strength to strength or bury it is left to be seen. Remember in that old forum that closed there were people who were worshipping the chicken guru MW, some hated his guts, again it's your opinion.

We need to move on and change accordingly and discuss worthwhile topics. Someone posted a very interesting para on forum personalities, after all we are just forum personalities aren't we. We can't trust anyone here , just hope that you learn something good and it benefits you.It would be different if we met personally and knew each other inside out even then there are numerous times that we are mis lead and stop trusting people. My point been is that there might be hidden agendas even behind the most genuine of posts and that's the best method of attracting the most gullible i.e MW he had bombarded the forum ( please google there are still some of his posts online) with facts, chicken sales and what not , I personally think he saw a good stock bought at lower prices got together with others and got the share going and exited all based on sound financials according to him. I know a friend who made millions of the chicken run and sadly I know people who lost as well. But hey this is the world we live in .

My car my patrol so all the best and I hope slstock and everyone else can soon bury the hatchet and let's all get down to taking investment. If you guys do open another forum i will gladly join as well, competition is good after all.

Good luck




2The Forum  Empty Re: The Forum Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:46 pm

thighrokker


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Just as when you are investing in stock you need to know the background and tips of the ice burg, when you volunteer to moderate a forum too, you need to know who owns it, what are their motives etc.
Moral here is that while its good to volunteer, its better know WHAT you are volunteering for.
Also this is not the only forum on Planet Earth where mods and admins volunteer. And no one volunteer out of the goodness of the Heart. There is a psychological reasoning for what motivates such a role.

3The Forum  Empty Re: The Forum Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:59 pm

ADP

ADP
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
very well said Aubrey, I too remember the forum you wrote about, Funny thing is was thinking on the same lines as you. The so called new managements only intention I feel is to ensure they spread enough panic and negativity and make maximum use of the down trend.

GMNet said in one of his posts that he is here for a reason and once that is achieved we will never see him again. Just look at what he has done thus far speaks volumes as to what his mission is.

I don't know for sure if we are heading for a bear market in the long run, I'm still very optimistic on the market.

I have just two thoughts I like add to what you have said. If you are optimistic there are plenty of shares to pick from. If you are pessimistic get through your selling fast so the rest of us can start to see some progress.

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