Aitken Spence 3Q results

salt · 1 Aitken Spence 3Q results Fri Feb 04, 2011 2:39 am

salt

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Aitken Spence results out. Nothing fabulios... as expected. Its highly overvalued. It's trading more than 30 PER. Their IPPs are expiring within next couple of years...

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/501_1296727847607.pdf

Last edited by Quibit on Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:58 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : format condensed)

econ · 2 Re: Aitken Spence 3Q results Fri Feb 04, 2011 2:43 am

econ

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yeah it had massive run last year..so still prices are over valued with PER over 30.but I do not think prices come further below..

wmdcf · 3 Re: Aitken Spence 3Q results Fri Feb 04, 2011 8:11 am

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http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/34835.html

Gaja · 4 Re: Aitken Spence 3Q results Fri Feb 04, 2011 8:57 am

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http://www.ft.lk/2011/02/04/aitken-spence-results-boosted-by-strong-tourism-performance/

watch · 5 Re: Aitken Spence 3Q results Fri Feb 04, 2011 11:16 am

watch

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comparatively AHUN, SPEN PER IS LOW.THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY TO UP.THIS IS MY VIEW ONLY.IT MAY BE WRONG

Slstock · 6 Re: Aitken Spence 3Q results Fri Feb 04, 2011 11:34 am

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salt wrote:Aitken Spence results out. Nothing fabulios... as expected. Its highly overvalued. It's trading more than 30 PER. Their IPPs are expiring within next couple of years...

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/501_1296727847607.pdf

Their profits are not super but does show some YoY growth. SPENS is under good management and they usually venture in different avenues when they find issue. If I recall right they did win a major tender to construct a Terminal at Colombo Port and then AHUN started a partner ship with Sixth Sense Hotels. This is a share which usually trade at a higher PE like JKH due to it personality. It is not a short term options but a medium to long term investment. Just look at their top 20 shareholder list. Most are coorporates and big funds.

This is not a basd share to hold in your portfolio for long term. The current prices are actually at reduced rated. I do recall a major crossing happned around Rs 230 if I am not mistaken. So price of this dropping over time is very less as it has already dropped a lot after the split. Just my thoughts.

Share Holder Shares percentage
Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka Limited 113,542,425 27.97
Rubicond Enterprises Limited 65,990,145 16.25
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation Ltd-General Fund 26,032,575 6.41
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation Ltd-Life Fund 18,000,000 4.43
HSBC International Nominees Limited –BPSS LDN- Aberdeen Asia Pacific Fund 17,331,000 4.27
Employees Provident Fund 14,443,835 3.56
HSBC International
Nominees Limited-BPSS LUXAberdeen Global-Asian Smaller Companies 12,397,500 3.05
HSBC International Nominees Limited-SSBTAberdeen Delaware Business Trust 10,543,500 2.60
Mr. G. C. Wickremasinghe 7,308,240 1.80
Ceylon Guardian Investment Trust PLC A/C # 01 6,919,500 1.70
Placidrange Holdings Limited 5,521,500 1.36
HSBC International Nominees Limited -SSBTLAberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust XCC6 4,503,555 1.11
HSBC International Nominees Limited -BPSS LDNAberdeen Investment Fund - ICVC Aberdeen Emerging Markets Fund 4,342,500 1.07
Milford Exports (Ceylon) Limited 4,321,500 1.06
HSBC International Nominees Ltd -BPSS LUXAberdeen Global-Emerging Markets Equity Fund 4,311,000 1.06
Mellon Bank N.A.-Florida Retirement System 4,164,200 1.03
HSBC International Nominees Limited –SSBT-Janus Overseas Fund 3,768,000 0.93
Stassen Exports Limited 3,244,500 0.80
Ms. A. T. Wickremasinghe 3,141,975 0.77
Ms. K. Fernando 3,065,070 0.76

salt · 7 Re: Aitken Spence 3Q results Fri Feb 04, 2011 2:28 pm

salt

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Spence will face difficulty in maintaining its prifitability when existing Power Contracts expire. Their new investment & hotel sector existing portfolio is not enough to cover the shortfall. They are a monority shareholder of the port terminal to be built in South Port- like JKH.

The new port terminal is not a fabulous one,like SAGT. That's one reason many people pull out from the second round bidding. Chinese guys have put exorbitant royalty just to get the business.. as you aware China Merchant Holdings, state owned company has different reason to be in Colombo

Yes, key is the tourism sector.. Yet a big shortfall is there to cover. SPEN should report lower profits in the medium term before they kickoff. It should be aggrevated by their huge borrowings and interest cost due to new investments. Belive me, they are not very transparent. I prefer avoid this share in the current market and buy it may be in 2-3 years later....when things are visible. Share price should suffer in the medium term.

The list consists of 2-3 institutinal investors who bought a long ago when Spence trading at 100 and 150.00... etc. Others are/were related parties. You can not follow (as an individual) EPF's investment stratergy, as they are buying equity to fund 20-30 years liability.

There are ample of opprtunities in the market than expensive conmglamorate- SPEN. I would buy AHUN instead SPEN if valuetaion right, as it is direct beneficiary of growing operations n SPEN. But, i have not looked at valuation of AHUN, consult your advisors before any decision.

I have no position in SPEN or AHUN

Slstock · 8 Re: Aitken Spence 3Q results Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:30 pm

Slstock

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salt wrote:Spence will face difficulty in maintaining its prifitability when existing Power Contracts expire. Their new investment & hotel sector existing portfolio is not enough to cover the shortfall. They are a monority shareholder of the port terminal to be built in South Port- like JKH.

The new port terminal is not a fabulous one,like SAGT. That's one reason many people pull out from the second round bidding. Chinese guys have put exorbitant royalty just to get the business.. as you aware China Merchant Holdings, state owned company has different reason to be in Colombo

Yes, key is the tourism sector.. Yet a big shortfall is there to cover. SPEN should report lower profits in the medium term before they kickoff. It should be aggrevated by their huge borrowings and interest cost due to new investments. Belive me, they are not very transparent. I prefer avoid this share in the current market and buy it may be in 2-3 years later....when things are visible. Share price should suffer in the medium term.

Salt I am still sticking to the gact that this is strong diversified stock due to investor mentality and backing.
However as you saidwe cannot expect massive return like after the war rise. Also the suggestion of AHUN might be something to ponder.
The list consists of 2-3 institutinal investors who bought a long ago when Spence trading at 100 and 150.00... etc. Others are/were related parties. You can not follow (as an individual) EPF's investment stratergy, as they are buying equity to fund 20-30 years liability.

There are ample of opprtunities in the market than expensive conmglamorate- SPEN. I would buy AHUN instead SPEN if valuetaion right, as it is direct beneficiary of growing operations n SPEN. But, i have not looked at valuation of AHUN, consult your advisors before any decision.

I have no position in SPEN or AHUN