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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/-

UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/-

+2
Meman
sirimevan
6 posters

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1UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:49 pm

sirimevan

sirimevan
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Dear all, UBC share holders,

TPG will increase the stake from 68% to 70% percent trough a mandatory offer and the offer price would be at Rs.25/-

TPG will acquire 2% of shares from the retailers and it would be around ( 742 million shares X 2%) = 14.84 million shares trough the mandatory offfer

they don't have so much of shares to be collected between 23 to 25 from the market,

What they are trying to do is fix the market price at 25 so that they know that they are no more shares below Rs.25 in the market and the entire quantity below Rs.25/- is with them.

TPG knows that they have brought for 15 and there are no more shares below 25.


2UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:07 pm

Meman


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Another shithead

3UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:13 pm

Top Trader


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Soo much desperate to sell the holding what to do, when u fellow the promotions blindly, these things happen

4UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:45 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

sirimevan wrote:Dear all, UBC share holders,

TPG will increase the stake from 68% to 70% percent trough a mandatory offer and the offer price would be at Rs.25/-

TPG will acquire 2% of shares from the retailers and it would be around ( 742 million shares X 2%) = 14.84 million shares trough the mandatory offfer

they don't have so much of shares to be collected between 23 to 25 from the market,

What they are trying to do is fix the market price at 25 so that they know that they are no more shares below Rs.25 in the market and the entire quantity below Rs.25/- is with them.

TPG knows that they have brought for 15 and there are no more shares below 25.


Dear Siri,

thanks for giving us your opinion on this whole take.....
The problem is the 2% general mandatory offer at what price ? that should work out to be 38,520,220 shares know (2%)

5UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:49 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

The warrants 218281250 shares is equivalent to 20% to be bought @ 16 (so they will excercise 1/4 of warrants) am i correct

So initial 68% + 2% General Mandatory +5% Through warrants= 75% Max cap

6UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:54 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

68% is calculated as follows

Private Placement = 742,156,949 (68%)
Existing Share Capital = 349,250,000 (32%)
Total = 1,091,406,949 (100%)

Right Very Happy

7UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:56 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

question is 2% General Mandatory to be triggered at what price ?  study 

8UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:58 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

2nd Question is why issue warrants to the Investor to the tune of 218,281,250 which 29.41% of the private placement.

But can exercise only a portion of the above quota  scratch 

9UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:06 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

The 2% would be equivalent to 21,828,146 Very Happy thats to match the GAP 68%---> 70%

742,156,949 /68*2 =21,828,146

so from
349,250,000 existing shares only 6.25%
(21828146/349250000)

Am i missing something Very Happy



10UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:08 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

Dear Siri
I think there is something is missing in your calculation to start with  scratch 

See my calculation to arrive 68%

11UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:09 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

In my opinion this is a bad deal, perhaps CBSL looking for FDIs

12UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:12 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

The New Fund Block of shares should be blocked and not allowed to change hands, CBSL should make sure real money flowing into the country Very Happy
Otherwise this would be another ADAM in the making Very Happy

SHARK

13UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:14 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

Another point is public holding 63.8% as at announcement date has now become 32% effectively Very Happy

14UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:19 pm

Top Trader


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Shark

Appreciate ur effects on this, hope the person, will answer, for his post, with the adequate explanation

15UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:19 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

UBC should be around 10Rs perhaps after this whole drama valuation wise,

Raw Deal for the ShareHolders
Good for the UBC (Because 5Rs premium compares to NAV 15.63 and valuation by SHARK as at 31.12.13

16UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:22 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

Top Trader wrote:Shark

Appreciate ur effects on this, hope the person, will answer, for his post, with the adequate explanation
I may be wrong ... lets wait for further insight on this from top members in SLEF Very Happy

17UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 9:32 am

sirimevan

sirimevan
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Shark you are correct,
Let’s assume like this

Private Placement = 742,156,949 (68%)
Existing Share Capital = 349,250,000 (32%)
Total = 1,091,406,949 (100%)
Cost for the Pvt Placement for TPG = 742,156,949 X Rs.15.30 =11.3 Billion
Assume the Cost for the Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- =21,828,138 X Rs.25 = 545 million
Lost or the price gap for offering at 25/-=21,828,138 X Rs.9 = 196 million
Do you think that they assume that they could acquire 21 million shares if they offer at the price of Rs.16/- No isn’t it?
So why did they want to come up with a mandatory offer then? At rs.25/- and lose 196 million upfront?
It’s like this they are very smart, what they are trying to do is “ urage maalu urage age thiyalama kapanna hadanne”
It’s like you spend 11,300 million to acquire a company at dirt cheap price (rs.16/- below the market price) and another just 200 million to satisfy the other shareholders of the company and to keep the price in the market above for another Rs.10/-
So by spending Rs.200/- million extra they have indirectly earned 742 million shares times Rs.10/- that is 7.4 billion
So simply they invest 11.5 billion and make another 7.4 billion by spending 200 million extra

18UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:42 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

sirimevan wrote:Shark you are correct,
Let’s assume like this

Private Placement = 742,156,949 (68%)
Existing Share Capital = 349,250,000 (32%)
Total = 1,091,406,949 (100%)
Cost for the Pvt Placement for TPG = 742,156,949 X Rs.15.30 =11.3 Billion
Assume the Cost for the Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- =21,828,138 X Rs.25 = 545 million
Lost or the price gap for offering at 25/-=21,828,138 X Rs.9 = 196 million
Do you think that they assume that they could acquire 21 million shares if they offer at the price of Rs.16/- No isn’t it?
So why did they want to come up with a mandatory offer then? At rs.25/- and lose 196 million upfront?
It’s like this they are very smart, what they are trying to do is “ urage maalu urage age thiyalama kapanna hadanne”
It’s like you spend 11,300 million to acquire a company at dirt cheap price (rs.16/- below the market price) and another just 200 million to satisfy the other shareholders of the company and to keep the price in the market above for another Rs.10/-
So by spending Rs.200/- million extra they have indirectly earned 742 million shares times Rs.10/- that is 7.4 billion
So simply they invest 11.5 billion and make another 7.4 billion by spending 200 million extra
Well there is an issue regarding this GMO @25/- Assumption for remaining 2% to make upto 70% it is not very clear for me whether its safer to assume.We should not assume this or that but why did not the disclosure paper indicate the price as 25Rs instead leaving all of us to assume.

Its only 6.25% of the whole existing shares will be eligible for the GMO as stated by previous post. Do you think its a fair deal. Its like giving candies to child crying in hunger. So the remaining will be holding above current price.

TPG will then go for the warrants..... why on earth so many no of warrants if its for the 5% to fill the gap 70%--->75%.
Here there is another catch 22 situation. I will discuss this in the next thread.


In my opinion the real game will start after the warrants

The UBC.NOOO suppose to start trading this morning, but still on Halt pending further Announcement.

19UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:54 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

The warrants through which these guys will make more money.....
How
The disclosure paper or announcement does not indicate clearly whether this is a one time or several time issue within 6 year period.

Lets assume several years or 1 time does not matter to me ..... TPG will issue the warrants and they will successfully convert around its excercise price 16Rs.
At this point TPG will exceed the thresh-hold 75% cap. what will they do ? put to the market and sell above market their cost @ 25Rs.

Since we are assuming ..... assumptions have no limits then... thats why the disclosure has been drafted carefully....

These are points to consider carefully .... what do you say members ?

Very Happy

Yet again i may be wrong but possible in hindsight Very Happy

20UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:04 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

I am not trying to draw a gloomy picture on TPG. They may do a good job, but the approach has been dealt with a severe blow to the existing public share holders in its entirety.

yes things do change since IPO price.... but if this deal go through CSE and SEC there is an opportunity for all of us to @15-16 or even 10Rs in the future and make some money from UBC .... what do you say Very Happy

SHARK

21UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:08 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

sirimevan wrote:
So by spending Rs.200/- million extra they have indirectly earned 742 million shares times Rs.10/- that is 7.4 billion
So simply they invest 11.5 billion and make another 7.4 billion by spending 200 million extra
They will recover it through Warrant Issue  tongue 

22UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:45 am

sirimevan

sirimevan
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

check the announcement guys is this not what is said

23UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:47 am

SuGi

SuGi
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

sirimevan wrote:check the announcement guys is this not what is said

Mokakda lokka eke thiyenne....? plz tell me

24UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:50 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

SHARK wrote:The 2% would be equivalent to 21,828,146 Very Happy thats to match the GAP 68%---> 70%

742,156,949 /68*2 =21,828,146

so from
349,250,000 existing shares only 6.25%
(21828146/349250000)

Am i missing something Very Happy



This is what i said yesterday so nothing has changed apart from GMO @25/-

25UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Empty Re: UBC- Mandatory offer at Rs.25/- Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:52 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

SuGi wrote:
sirimevan wrote:check the announcement guys is this not what is said

Mokakda lokka eke thiyenne....? plz tell me
Sugi same thing what we said yesterday Very Happy lokka UBC down to 19

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