why vpel is silent yet?

SHARK aka TAH · 26 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:45 am

SHARK aka TAH

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But Octo, do you believe VPEL will hit between 8-9 Min when Bartleet say 11+

Octopus · 27 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:54 am

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GroundedKestrel wrote:Well Octopus, please try to see past emotion and only at the facts and figures in this instance .

VPEL has given good div every year its just not this year. Please see the history and the Graphs.
It could not sustain and go pass 7.
Unless otherwise there is a big player or institute, it is unlikely and doubtful will go pass 7 and will sustain.
having said that, there is no need to history to repeat.
If it wasn't that experience, I'd trust.

I am basically a trader before and I have traded this counter few times and got good profits just close to the DIV time.Once div was given, I disposed it.What I mean to our friends that they'd have chance to buy the counter for @6 in future.
so why buy @ 6.40/50?
I don't want to demote this share. this is just my opinion only.
Good luck.

Nitro 7 · 28 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:19 pm

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NP or some big investor has to get involved to take it to DD

GroundedKestrel · 29 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:15 pm

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Shark, did you manage to read the entire report? What do you think? Smile

SHARK aka TAH · 30 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:23 pm

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Not Yet i did not get the time, will surely do it tomorrow Very Happy

SHARK aka TAH · 31 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:24 pm

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I really like when Funda supports Tech

SHARK aka TAH · 32 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:31 pm

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It has never failed me when both directs to one target Very Happy

Market will provide ample opportunities hopefully .... if this RED continues for few more weeks .....

RoomGirl · 33 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:38 pm

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silent wela inna eka kochchara hodada hithenawa cfvf dekkama... Very Happy

s.lalith · 34 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:20 pm

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vpel please go to 10...... king

RPPA · 35 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:56 pm

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kabba wrote:silent wela inna eka kochchara hodada hithenawa cfvf dekkama...

Kabba

Have you sold CFVF.

SHARK aka TAH · 36 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:16 pm

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Quote From BRR

Higher net profit backed by declining finance cost

In FY 2014, bottom line increased by a staggering 127.1% YoY to LKR 667.10mn owing to the exceptional rainfall of 89mn/kWh and thus higher revenue generation. Finance cost would have a direct impact on bottom

line going forward. However, during the forecast period (FY 2015E - FY 2017E) we believe the net finance cost would gradually decline; with the reasoning that no major loan is required unless VPEL acquires or moves in to new projects. All long term loans are currently taken for the construction of Denawaka Ganga and Kiriwaneliya Mini Hydro project. The company is liable to pay income tax at 12% from FY 2014.

We expect net profit margins to improve from 63% in FY 2015E to 66% in FY 2017E on the back of higher tariff rates, higher expected power generation and lower finance cost.

SHARK aka TAH · 37 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:18 pm

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Valuation
Based on our forecast the stock has a potential value of LKR 11.55 on a WACC of ~12.4% and terminal growth rate of 2.0%. The cost of equity is based on a beta of 0.86 (based on ASPI vs. VPEL stock price movements), risk free rate of 7.29% and an equity risk premium of 6.0%. For FY 2015E, FY 2016E and FY 2017E the stock has a forward PE multiple of 7.2x, 5.8x, 5.5x respectively on a forward EPS of LKR 0.84, LKR 1.05 and LKR 1.11 at the cur-rent price of LKR 6.10. The power sector PE and PBV stands at 7.26x and

1.6x as at 17th September 2014.

We expect capex to range at LKR 15mn- LKR 20mn (each year) during FY

2015E- FY 2017E, which is utilized for plant and machinery maintenance. We have not forecasted for any acquisitions or investments in new plants or projects.

SHARK aka TAH · 38 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:24 pm

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With a Forward valuation on BRR for 2015E i will give a valuation around 8.20Rs With Technical Target 8.80Rs

SHARK aka TAH · 39 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:47 pm

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SHARK aka TAH wrote:With a Forward valuation on BRR for 2015E i will give a valuation around 8.20Rs With Technical Target 8.80Rs

If BRR 2017E is in line with actuals the valuation for me is 11.90 on Forward Earnings.

Basketball

This is correctly recognised by our members, VPEL is now getting the much awaited recognition ...... With continues DY above industry/sector we should be patient enough to accumulate and HOLD.

The only disadvantage is the unpredictable weather .... bounce

GroundedKestrel · 40 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:53 pm

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Hopefully, our forecasts and valuations are correct dear Shark. It's interesting how things are panning out.

gayanath1983 · 41 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:56 pm

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i told VPEL will be the next superstar after CFVF

GroundedKestrel · 42 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:58 pm

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How much do you think it will go to Gayanath?

RPPA · 43 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:11 pm

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SHARK aka TAH wrote:Valuation
Based on our forecast the stock has a potential value of LKR 11.55 on a WACC of ~12.4% and terminal growth rate of 2.0%. The cost of equity is based on a beta of 0.86 (based on ASPI vs. VPEL stock price movements), risk free rate of 7.29% and an equity risk premium of 6.0%. For FY 2015E, FY 2016E and FY 2017E the stock has a forward PE multiple of 7.2x, 5.8x, 5.5x respectively on a forward EPS of LKR 0.84, LKR 1.05 and LKR 1.11 at the cur-rent price of LKR 6.10. The power sector PE and PBV stands at 7.26x and

1.6x as at 17th September 2014.

We expect capex to range at LKR 15mn- LKR 20mn (each year) during FY

2015E- FY 2017E, which is utilized for plant and machinery maintenance. We have not forecasted for any acquisitions or investments in new plants or projects.

Shark

For the valuation you derived what is the growth rate applied & for how many years or for perpetuity. What is the price when the cash flows are discounted @ WACC 12.40% AND what is the value if the cash flows are discounted at risk free rate.

piras · 44 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:37 pm

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Should hit 10+ soon.

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why vpel is silent yet?

26 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:45 am

SHARK aka TAH

27 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:54 am

Octopus

28 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:19 pm

Nitro 7

29 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:15 pm

GroundedKestrel

30 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:23 pm

SHARK aka TAH

31 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:24 pm

SHARK aka TAH

32 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:31 pm

SHARK aka TAH

33 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:38 pm

RoomGirl

34 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:20 pm

s.lalith

35 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:56 pm

RPPA

36 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:16 pm

SHARK aka TAH

37 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:18 pm

SHARK aka TAH

38 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:24 pm

SHARK aka TAH

39 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:47 pm

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42 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:58 pm

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43 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:11 pm

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44 Re: why vpel is silent yet? Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:37 pm

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45 Re: why vpel is silent yet?

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