Bull Vs Bear Market historical view

This seems second worse stock market crash. Crash is still not over.

Quibit wrote:This seems second worse stock market crash. Crash is still not over.

Quibit, even Sumane couldn't predict the outcome on 8th Jan 2015 so how come you or me can predict when the fall in share price can be end. But definitely I can say CSE will go to 7300 again in the future because it has fallen 1000 points from their for the reasons known to all of us. I don't think the same reasons can take the market down for another 1000 points unless there are new information. So better come out of your ideologies removing the coloured glasses and look at what's there. There are plenty of value stocks that have fallen 10-20% from their 52 week high. I invite you and all other value investors to collect these and to be among the 1% fearless investors who are always won in the stock market. GL

ABSOLUTELY RIGHT EC. NOW THE MARKET IS IN THE POST TSUNAMI PHASE AND THERE IS A PROBABLE CONTINUATION OF THE RECOVERY.

Onna okkoma UP except CSE...

http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

Eight stocks has hit 52 week low already. Look like another seat for JVP

BvsB wrote:Onna okkoma UP except CSE...

http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

Api mee wenasata garu karanna one.
BTW no panic selling low volumes.

prabath wrote:

BvsB wrote:Onna okkoma UP except CSE...

http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

Api mee wenasata garu karanna one.
BTW no panic selling low volumes.

Should see after 12.30 to watch how our investors are panicked.

EquityChamp wrote:

prabath wrote:

BvsB wrote:Onna okkoma UP except CSE...

http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

Api mee wenasata garu karanna one.
BTW no panic selling low volumes.

Should see after 12.30 to watch how our investors are panicked.

may be panic buying

prabath wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:

prabath wrote:

BvsB wrote:Onna okkoma UP except CSE...

http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

Api mee wenasata garu karanna one.
BTW no panic selling low volumes.

Should see after 12.30 to watch how our investors are panicked.

may be panic buying

Don't panic to buy or sell. Ha ha ha the most persuaded statement of words by some God like person...

Quibit wrote:This seems second worse stock market crash. Crash is still not over.

Recently some predicted 6000 and now some are predicting 6500?
 
Can we believe predictions? Following were some of the predictions made my some market participants globally.
 
Gold will hit $10,000 and oil will hit $200
 
Gold is about to drop below $1000? Oil has dropped more than we thought and it should average around $37 in 2016/17.
 
Invest in Asia Ex-Japan.
 
So many avoided Japan. It had one of the strongest bull markets and still it has more legs.
 
Dump USD. It has no future and AUD will become reserve currency.
 
Now those who wanted to dump also have fallen love with USD.
 
Buy emerging markets more
 
Some missed opportunity in frontier markets and still they are going to have more opportunities in the coming years as they are in the initial stage of their growth.
 
Don’t invest in countries such as Pakistan due to political and macro economic problems
 
It is also having one of the longest bull markets in the world while having sell off, correction and pullback etc.
 
Greece, Spain, Italy and other credit problems will send Europe in to depression
 
They are also having bull markets while having volatility and selloff etc. Analysts are still bullish on European stocks especially on consumer staples, health care and
Banking stocks.
 
Avoid stocks in market such as Malaysia and China
 
Investors are making attractive capital gains from boring stuff there. Malaysian market is more resilient than other markets now.
 
Subprime crisis will bankrupt entire banking system
 
Investors and traders made bundle of money in stocks in the USA and still some stocks have more legs.
 
Avoid stocks due to end of bond purchasing programme
 
Those who became panic lost money and other investors made bundle of money by picking stocks.
 
The latest one is speculation on Fed interests rates
 
In the past also Fed did this and still investors made bundle of money by picking stocks though they had volatility and some sell off in stocks initially.
 
Another one is china drama
 
It is slowing down but not contracting. This is good news for some countries. Extremely overvalued real estate markets such as Australia and New Zealand could have some sort of strong correction in their housing market. China is one of the reasons for higher commodity prices. Other countries will benefit lot thanks to lower commodity prices. Global consumers will have more money in their pockets.

Dear Valuepick,
Thank you for your information.
To be honest that none of the mentioned factors below are supporting CSE in any way. So I would only recommend the current CSE is good only for long term only or you will see in the coming months. Think and ask yourself about some of the points below. Don't just listen and believe.
Depreciation of rupees
local interest rate rise
federal interest rate hike
huge oil production when demands are low
decrease in exports and increase in imports ( trade deficit)
foreign reserve in the central bank including depreciation and volatility
China's economic conditions
Russia plans to privatise some of its government sector
political instability in Srilanka with complicated corruption and arrests which they find hard to charge on them,
Demand for safe haven increasing after long long time with reasonable prices.

Agree with valuepick we have to choose selective sectors/counters which will outperform the mkt,by looking at the financials commodity users(grain,copper)are the winners and will continue do well in the future,some sectors in SL are doing extremely well and will continue to thrive through prudent expansions,and I believe mkt has factored to the negative elements,

Thank you for some valuable ideas. We have to develop some good strategy.


TOP-DOWN, BOTTOM-UP, OR SOMETHING IN-BETWEEN?


by TIM SEYMOUR on FEBRUARY 4, 2016 · LEAVE A COMMENT
 
 
 
 
 
The Return of Orthodox Policy
 
In 2013 a large number of political analysts had forecast a hung parliament in the run-up to Pakistan’s legislative elections. This came despite a highly unsuccessful stint at the helm of government by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Widespread corruption allegations, an inability to exercise economic reforms demanded by the IMF and high inflation, due to printing large amounts of money to finance the country’s deficits, all lead to a decided lack of popularity. Despite this dynamic, the party was perceived to be entrenched.
The election results surprised most everyone as the conservative Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) consolidated enough seats to form an independent government. The new government moved swiftly and entered a new IMF program to avoid a balance of payments crisis, injected liquidity into an energy sector burdened with circular debt and realigned towards orthodox economic policies overall. Unsurprisingly, stock market returns from the election date till end of 2014 were a massive 68% in local currency terms.

End of War
 
Sri Lanka experienced a major inflection point in 2009. In May of that year Sri Lanka’s civil war ended after a 26 year conflict. The war had led to massive expenditures by the government, with the bulk of the funds allocated to financing the fighting. The result was high levels of debt, a high fiscal deficit, lots of money printing and severe inflation. The end of the war was a watershed moment as the government could finally shift wasteful military expenditure and refocus on the development of the country, bringing large infrastructure projects to formerly war torn areas. The outcome was an immediate reduction in inflation as supply chains improved, a declining fiscal deficit and a big jump in GDP growth. Between the end of 2008 and early 2011, the equity market returned 381%. It’s worth mentioning that there was definitely an overreaction in equity prices, as the index is yet to exceed its 2011 high. Nevertheless, the structural change in the Sri Lankan economy caused by the end of the war transformed the fortunes of the country.

Structural Change
 
After two years of rule by an interim government backed by the army, Bangladesh held an election in December 2008 which resulted in the Awami League’s return to power with a massive majority, winning 76% of the electoral seats. On the new government’s immediate agenda was to increase power generation. But instead of building large, long-duration fixed asset power plants, they relied on oil-fueled rental power plants. The end result was a large change in the energy mix towards oil instead of natural gas. Meanwhile, oil prices which had hit $44 per barrel in early 2009 rose rapidly and exceeded $100 by the same time in 2011. This resulted in a deteriorating current account position and lead to currency depreciation of about 18% in 2011. In addition, the government couldn’t pass through the increased costs resulting in high subsidies financed by bank borrowing (crowding out the private sector). High double digit inflation coupled with this crowding out lead to a massive liquidity crunch as banks had to take time deposits at 14%. The country was forced to take IMF support and implement reforms such as energy price hikes and tight monetary policy to get the economy back on track. By 2013, the situation started to normalize, and from late 2013 to the end of 2014 the MSCI Bangladesh index returned an impressive 36%.

As these examples illustrate, economic conditions can change quite rapidly in developing markets. And these changes directly impact company fundamentals through cash flows or discount rates (i.e. risk free rates and risk premiums). Having a means of filtering the effects of global movements in interest rates, currencies and commodities can avoid costly investment errors.

Different types of predictions
 
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-forecast-2016-010720163
 
Gold 'Below $1000' by April: Top Forecaster


http://www.barrons.com/articles/bob-dolls-predictions-for-markets-in-2016-1452176145
 
2016 TEN PREDICTIONS
 
1. U.S. real GDP remains below 3% and nominal GDP below 5% for an unprecedented tenth year in a row.
 
2. U.S. Treasury rates rise for a second year, but high yield spreads fall.
 
3. S&P 500 earnings make limited headway as consumer spending advances are partially offset by oil, the dollar and wage rates.
 
4. For the first time in almost 40 years, U.S. equities experience a single-digit percentage change for the second year in a row.
 
5. Stocks outperform bonds for the fifth consecutive year.
 
6. Non-U.S. equities outperform domestic equities, while non-U.S. fixed income outperforms domestic fixed income.
 
Generally speaking, U.S. equities and fixed income have outperformed their non-U.S. counterparts over the last few years. Assuming global growth improves, the United States will likely surrender its years-long market leadership. Today, we think the United States is growing more robustly than the rest of the world, but we may be near the peak of U.S./global divergence. Additionally, with the Fed raising rates and many other regions remaining in easing mode, U.S. fixed income may struggle on a relative basis. On a related note, we believe the mantle for fastest growing emerging country has been passed from China to India.


7. Information technology, financials and telecommunication services outperform energy, materials and utilities.
 
As we saw in 2015, we think free cash flow and unit growth will be keys to success in 2016. From a sector standpoint, we favor technology, (a sector with growth and value, domestic and international, and cyclical and defensive choices), financials (which should benefit from rising interest rates) and telecommunications services (a cheap, defensive sector). We remain cautious on the deeper cyclical areas, and low energy prices should weigh on the energy and materials sectors. As for utilities, this proxy for the bond market will likely struggle as rates rise. We also have a modest preference for large caps over small caps and growth styles over value (our style preferences may shift if global economic growth broadens).


8. Geopolitics, terrorism and cyberattacks continue to haunt investors but have little market impact.
 
9. The federal budget deficit rises in dollars and as a percentage of GDP for the first time in seven years.
 
10. Republicans retain the House and the Senate and capture the White House.
 
BOB DOLL SCORES HIS 2015 PREDICTIONS
 
1 U.S. GDP grows 3% for the first time since 2005.
Wrong
2 Core inflation remains contained, but wage growth begins to increase.
Correct
3 The Federal Reserve raises interest rates, as short-term rates rise more than long-term rates.
Correct
4 The European Central Bank institutes a large-scale quantitative easing program.
Correct
5 The U.S. contributes more to global GDP growth than China for the first time since 2006.
Correct
6 U.S. equities enjoy another good yet volatile year, as corporate earnings and the U.S. dollar rise.
Half-Correct
7 The technology, health care and telecom sectors outperform utilities, energy and materials.
Correct
8 Oil prices fall further before ending the year higher than where they began.
Half-Correct
9 U.S. equity mutual funds show their first significant inflows since 2004.
Wrong
10 The Republican and Democratic presidential nominations remain wide open.
Correct
Score: 7.0 out of 10
Outlook 2016: Investors May Struggle, but Opportunities Exist