I'm just trying to analysis whether the latest right issue "MAL N & X" is attractive, when compare with some of the recent right issues, using its impact to the NAPS. (May be I'm completely wrong here)
My observations; it is rare that a company fix a "right issue price" below the NAPS (specially where the stock is trading above the NAPS), as such rights issues dilutes NAPS which leads lower valuations. I noticed only CSD, OSEA (please note both of these are trading below the NAPS) & MAL have been offered VOTING right shares at a discount to the NAPS. Also MAL, SEYB & HNB have been offered NON-VOTING right shares at a discounted to their NAPS by 30.38%, 28.82% & 4.43% respectively. (see below table/attached worksheet).
Most of times "Right Shares" has been offered at a discounted to the market price, but premium to the NAPS; e.g. ALUF & LDEV offered at a extremely premium price. The only plantation counter in the sample - KAHA was offered its rights at over 90% premium to its NAPS.
Stock Right Issue Issue Price Pre-BVPS (% of -Discount / + Premium to BVPS)
MAL 01 V & 03 NV for 10 V-6.75, NV-5.50 Rs. 7.90 (V -14.55%), (NV -30.38%)
KAHA 1 for 3 V-15 Rs. 7.87 (V +90.6%)
SEYB 1 for 3 V-75, NV-35 Rs. 49.17 (V +52.53%), (NV -28.82%)
COMB 1 for 14 V-181.65, NV-130.13 Rs. 91.04 (V +99.53%), (NV +42.93%)
HNB 1 for 10 V-219.50, NV-119.50 Rs. 125.57 (V +74.80%), (NV -4.83%)
LDEV 15 for 1 V-25 RS. 1.76 (V +1320.45%)
CSD 1 for 1 V-11 Rs. 45.56 (V -75.86)
ALUF 2 for 1 V-38 Rs. -12.02 premium Rs. 50.20
SMLL 1 for 2 V-25 Rs. 11.28 (V +121.63%)
HASU 1 for 7 V-62.50 Rs. 27.10 (V +130.63%)
CTHR 1 for 55 V-210 Rs. 51.38 (V +308.72%)
CCS 1 for 10 V-300 Rs. 205 (V +46.34%)
ATL 1 for 1 V-1.50 Rs. 0.22 (V +581.82%)
MARA 1 for 4 V-10 Rs. 6.39 (V +56.49%)
OSEA 1 for 2 V-15 Rs. 21.92 (V -31.56)
When it comes to the latest MAL right issue; MAL NAPS - 7.90 (pre-right issue) and it will diluted to 7.30 after the rights issue (whem fully-subcribed). VOTING shares are offered at 14.55% discounted to the NAPS while NON-VOTING offered at over 30%. When it compare with market price the right issue (offer price) is discounted about 30%. Also noted that MAL is trading at PER 4.3x which also very attrective.
In the resent past I accepted CSD rights, but ignored OSEA rights, and now have to decide on MAL as well (MAL represent about 7% of my PF).
CSE is now extremly unpredictable in terms of the fundermental analysis and "Right Issues" are not always attrective in terms of "market price movements".
Therefore I invite fellow members of this forum to discuss, "pricing - right issues" and "predicting-XR Price" in general as well as latest right issue of MAL in specifivally
please refer the attached worksheet for more details...
- Attachments
- Right Issues.xls
- 02 worksheets - Comparison of Recent Rights & Latest MAL Right Issue
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Last edited by factFINDER on Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:43 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : to attach a worksheet)