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Why Asi will not fall to 5800

+3
Chinwi
chamil1
Maharaja
7 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Why Asi will not fall to 5800  Empty Why Asi will not fall to 5800 Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:49 pm

Maharaja


Expert
Expert

1.) SL accepted by World

PM Ranil at Davos ( there were many investors willing to invest in SL including Richard Branson )
Don't think international investors do work like we buy items from Sunday market.
They need Currency stability (Government know they need to create this ), political stability ( we now have ) etc. for their investments.

President visits Germany. ( first president who was invited after 43 years ) A trade and investment delegation has gone with president and they will discuss with German investors for opportunities & Joint ventures in SL. Germany is the most strongest country economically in Europe. Also a delegation from Germany will visit to SL in May 2016. German president also has told they will help SL.

UK investments - A UK investment leader told we must reduce corruption and increase transparency to boost investments. They will move SL to a more transparent and corruption free nation then they will invest.

Volkswagen wanted to start a plant here but failed (they had problems on emissions in vehicles, and now have to pay fines also.) The important part here is they wanted to invest in SL.

New Zealand Prime Minister will visit SL next week to grow commercial and political ties.

Our president will visit Austria after Germany also to promote opportunities in SL.

Now think why SL is accepted by the world and after such investments what will happen to our economy. ( Investments = new jobs = country grows )



2.) World economy 

How many people spread news about world markets falling !!! Think why now you don't hear news about world economy. Because these big people don't want to tell you.

World markets were positive for the last weeks. US markets are good now. China markets stable now. For example today all major markets Up. Yesterday (or Tuesday ) Japan market went up by more than 1000 points in one day.


3.) Crude oil

Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia are discussing for a production cut in oil. This is the reason why crude oil went up. So as crude oil markets stabilise and slowly go up during end of 2016, world markets will not crash.

4.) SL T-Bills

91 day T-bills are rising ( at a two year high ) this is negative. But what many people don't see is Government had rejected all bids for 182 day and 364 day. Why they rejected 182&364 bids ?
The reason is because government know they will get money ( sometimes foreign inflows) in the future.

5.) Today's market CSE

Cash Map now is 80 %. Today and this week turnover about 500 Mn in red markets. So someone is buying. Also foreign buyers coming into JKH and banks at these levels. We have good support at 6150, so don't talk about 6000 or 5800 even before we cross 6200. Selling pressure is reducing, yesterday there was some forced selling. 

Many research analysts from broker firms don't talk about the positive now, but later when all the things I told here will happen, after that these analysts will tell you positive news.

But then market will have moved again.

So invest now on strong companies at discount prices. Think about the long term view.


Goodluck 
Maharaja

2Why Asi will not fall to 5800  Empty Re: Why Asi will not fall to 5800 Thu Feb 18, 2016 1:12 pm

chamil1


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Good post as usual Maharaja !

On the negative side we have the Dollar under threat in ST-MT . That would delay foreign investors entering . However the silver lining is the IMF loan - with that foreigners will enter.

TK factor also affecting big time...

3Why Asi will not fall to 5800  Empty Re: Why Asi will not fall to 5800 Thu Feb 18, 2016 2:05 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

SL accepted by World
President visits Germany.
A UK investment leader told  they will invest.
Our president will visit Austria
New Zealand Prime Minister will visit SL
Volkswagen wanted to invest
political stability ( we now have ) - really ?


All those are nice images to watch and enjoy.  A stock market need action to get activated.


Now think why SL is accepted by the world and after such investments what will happen to our economy. ( Investments = new jobs = country grows )  


Yes , very good for next generation, but no reason for a stock market boom in this year or next year.

4Why Asi will not fall to 5800  Empty Re: Why Asi will not fall to 5800 Thu Feb 18, 2016 3:06 pm

Joe007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics


I also strongly believe that there is no stock market boom this year or next year.

Also facing massive losses within a week. Eg - CIND,ACL,......bought a week ago today more than 10% loss.

So I am confident whatever news comes, market will fall further without doubt. There is no confidence in the market also most investors are exhausted continuously near a year.

5Why Asi will not fall to 5800  Empty Re: Why Asi will not fall to 5800 Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:04 pm

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

i don't think market will fall below 6000 mark but i wont rule it out completely. I wont rule out market recovering to 6700 mark within this yr also. 

This why i can see market recovering;

getting GSP+ by june/July

Recommencement of Port city (even though we disrespected china by suspending all china funded ongoing project but now we're begging them. Hopeful current govt amend our relations and managed to recommence these project)

IMF bailout releasing much needed pressure off on interest rates. 

Cooperate tax rate cut from 28% to 15%. Even though i don't expect top-line growth from most of the companies but i see companies managing to maintain 10%+ bottom line growth by tax saving and by improving margins. 

Granting Gaming license for few megs projects. (at least allowing one of the existing gaming license to used on waterfront project) 

These are reasons i can see why market might fall;

Continuing BOP issues.

Devaluation of the rupee

if a Rate hike happens

If the lack of FDI continues 

is there is any additional reasons you might think market will fall or rise during this year?

6Why Asi will not fall to 5800  Empty Re: Why Asi will not fall to 5800 Thu Feb 18, 2016 7:10 pm

Pac-man

Pac-man
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Maharaja

Sir very good post Sir. you give good knowledge for us Thankyou

Chinwi

Anae palayan yanna. ubata government eka monawa karath madi.
Ubata Mahindaya toilet giyath ewa thama news .. nikan kunuharapa kiyanna epa oii... 

Jayathu 

Mchn BOP issue eka IMF loan eka hambunahama hariyai da ?

7Why Asi will not fall to 5800  Empty Re: Why Asi will not fall to 5800 Thu Feb 18, 2016 7:37 pm

Brinthan

Brinthan
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

We can't separate our market from world..US FED RATE HIKE is the most important factor for world share markets...
US FED expected to rise interest rate twice this year...last year Dec they increaed there intrest rate after 1 decade....China market is most affected from us intrest rates...

8Why Asi will not fall to 5800  Empty Re: Why Asi will not fall to 5800 Thu Feb 18, 2016 8:00 pm

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Pac-man BOP issue won't be resolved by getting IMF loan but usually when any country gets IMF bail out it comes with lot of strings attach to it. IMF bail out comes in stages, we have to satisfy there requirements to get the 2nd part of the bail out. Strict IMF measures imposed usually helps the country to overcome BOP issues.

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