Ray of hope

hotstock · 1 Ray of hope Thu Mar 03, 2016 7:15 pm

hotstock

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This is NOT a buy recommendation, but just a feeling

- Global markets are settling
- All negative factors seem reflected in the price
- Buying pressure is slowly mouting (E.g. TJL Buying order today > 1 Mil )
- RSI is around 20 for most of the shares
- Most of the shares PE are at low

Considering all aspects, feel like it can rebound soon..Share your thoughts...

samaritan · 2 Re: Ray of hope Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:05 pm

samaritan

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Certainly i agree with you hotstock.

Basically the present Govt wasted precious time lacking in policy decisions. They failed to realize that China had to play a lead role as partner in our progress. China's ambitious 'Silk Road' project together with their quest to finance mega investments here should have been welcomed with both hands. However, they are moving in the correct direction as at now. Better late than never!

The Govt failed in their expectations of large scale assistance from the West, being the reason for the postponement of Chinese funded projects.

As it is, as you have stated the Global markets are settling down and share prices have reacted and readjusted to the adverse news and overall the market is expected to move upwards with great momentum once the infrastructure development project takes off with funds flowing in. The delay can only be at our end as what took place in the past.

I recall at this juncture the PM prior to the Presidential election abruptly stated at a press conference that was televised that the Port City project will be HALTED (api eka nathara karanawa) without an iota of diplomacy. Instead he could have stated that we will REVIEW the project stating our concerns. The only reason that can be attributed to this is to score a point over the opponent. But at what cost??

But, as it is like the sergeant at the Police training school in the movie 'Police Academy' they must resort to the chorus "MOVE IT", "MOVE IT"," MOVE IT"........and ensure moving it. Otherwise we will not be smart enough to see a smart nation as what PM envisages in 5 years. Do or Depart, as there is no time for Learning now!

Finally, i strongly share your sentiment that the market in all probabilities can rebound.

VALUEPICK · 3 Re: Ray of hope Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:46 am

VALUEPICK

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It is time to stay away from the crowd.

There are lot of opinions in the market.Only by gathering objective data by ourselves can form an opinion.

As Ben Graham said in chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor: The market is there to serve you, not instruct you. If it does something silly, it gives you a chance to do something. It just sets prices. If it doesn't give you an opportunity, go play bridge and come back the next day. And the nice thing is that the prices will be different."

Don’t pay too much attention to the media as well.

There is plenty of noise on the internet, the newspapers or on television. Every day someone will have an opinion as to where the market will go next or tell you that the market is not going to do well or will do well etc.Overall, I think most investors spend too much time reading unnecessary commentary which could lead to poor investment decisions.

Last month I saw following news on the internet

Avoid trading Nifty till global markets carnage settles

After one month, both The Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest gains in more than two years and the rupee also rallied.

As I said before, Asian currencies which include Sri-Lankan rupee should have some strength in 2016.

I saw following news as well on the internet at the end of February 2016

South Africa economy is in crisis

Growth forecast for 2016 to 0.9%, down from 1.7%.
South African finance minister also admitted that the country is in an economic crisis.

Now we are seeing some surprise news.

http://www.dailynewsx.com/news/business-news/south-african-stocks-set-for-best-week-of-2016-as-foreigners-buy-55338.html

South African Stocks Set for Best Week of 2016 as Foreigners Buy

Stock market has its own cycles and personality as well. We cannot predict the trend in advance. Stock markets create some surprises as well.

VALUEPICK · 4 Re: Ray of hope Sun Mar 06, 2016 9:19 am

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How about following Peter Lynch’s Principle? It is a golden statement.

You can't see the future through a rear-view mirror.

Chapter 2 of the book talks about "weekend worriers", those pundits that always have a thousand reasons why the economy is bad and it is not a good time to invest in stocks. He points out that even he is guilty of this, appearing on the prestigious Barren's panel on the state of the economy to prognosticate and outdo the other panelists on why the market is about to crash. He also notes that none of the people on the Barren's portfolio are anything less than the top experts on investment, managers of the biggest and best funds and all highly respected, obviously even with all the doom-saying they still find some time to invest. Lynch advocates looking at stocks for their own value, not to go in for top-down analysis in some futile attempt to predict the state of the economy and their effects on stock prices. The market crashes when stocks are way over valued, and doesn't usually crash again until stocks have become over valued again. His point comes down to the old saying, "buy in gloom, sell in boom". When the experts are bearish is the time to buy.