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Have anybody analysed what has happened during last quarter compared to corresponding quarter of last year. Since still I feel that I must contribute to this forum I am going to produce another small analysis for the betterment of anybody of interest.
The below is how the top 10 have performed in the last quarter YoY basis.
9/10 have reported encouraging gains. Only SLT lags behind. Overall the profits have soared by 3.1bn or 15% which is quite significant. Why? Is it the macro environment was so business friendly. Just look at below facts.
12M T Bill rate has gone up by more than 3 basis points which means risk free returns have gone up, a direct demotivator of risky stock market investments.
12M SLIBOR has gone up by more than 4 basis points which means cost of capital of entities or business have gone up tremendously YoY.
Rupee was depreciated by more than 7 rupees which means imported raw materials as well as capital goods have gone up significantly.
But still our top 10 manages to deliver a growth of 15% in earnings YoY. Doesn't it sounds like remarkable.
But ASPI 523 points or 7.4% YoY. Isn't any body feeling that this drop should be artificial. Or if I say what are the possibilities to move T Bill rate by another 3 basis points after another one year. What are the possibilities to move the SLIBOR to move by another 4 basis points by next August or what are the possibilities for LKR to depreciate by another 7 rupees. Are those possibilities High, Medium or Low. What are the possibilities for the above top 10 to record another 10%-15% growth by next quarter.
Then the golden question is how many of you thinking that ASPI will be at this level or reach 6000 by next August. Think very deeply and decide the next action now. Don't expect the market PE will remain at 13 or settle down at 12 or 11 by August.
Think, think and again think and take the appropriate action in this September.
Thanks and good luck
The below is how the top 10 have performed in the last quarter YoY basis.
| Rs Mn | Q2 15 | Q2 16 | YoY | |
| JKH | 2,178 | 2,371 | 193 | 9% |
| CTC | 2,928 | 3,178 | 250 | 9% |
| COMB | 2,646 | 3,256 | 610 | 23% |
| NEST | 2,458 | 2,466 | 8 | 0% |
| DIAL | 3,888 | 4,958 | 1,070 | 28% |
| DIST | 1,755 | 1,923 | 168 | 10% |
| HNB | 2,386 | 3,359 | 973 | 41% |
| SLT | 1,797 | 1,098 | - 699 | -39% |
| CCS | 550 | 855 | 305 | 55% |
| HHL | 415 | 696 | 281 | 68% |
| Total | 21,001 | 24,160 | 3,159 | 15% |
| Aug-15 | Aug-16 | |
| 364 day T bill rate | 7.18% | 10.73% |
| 12 month SLIBOR | 7.65% | 11.98% |
| ASPI | 7050.9 | 6528 |
| Rs/USD | 138.9 | 145.6 |
12M SLIBOR has gone up by more than 4 basis points which means cost of capital of entities or business have gone up tremendously YoY.
Rupee was depreciated by more than 7 rupees which means imported raw materials as well as capital goods have gone up significantly.
But still our top 10 manages to deliver a growth of 15% in earnings YoY. Doesn't it sounds like remarkable.
But ASPI 523 points or 7.4% YoY. Isn't any body feeling that this drop should be artificial. Or if I say what are the possibilities to move T Bill rate by another 3 basis points after another one year. What are the possibilities to move the SLIBOR to move by another 4 basis points by next August or what are the possibilities for LKR to depreciate by another 7 rupees. Are those possibilities High, Medium or Low. What are the possibilities for the above top 10 to record another 10%-15% growth by next quarter.
Then the golden question is how many of you thinking that ASPI will be at this level or reach 6000 by next August. Think very deeply and decide the next action now. Don't expect the market PE will remain at 13 or settle down at 12 or 11 by August.
Think, think and again think and take the appropriate action in this September.
Thanks and good luck
