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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Sri Lanka aims at stable rupee, forex reserves, IMF engagement: Governor Lakshman

Sri Lanka aims at stable rupee, forex reserves, IMF engagement: Governor Lakshman

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fireshelter

fireshelter
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka will aim for forex reserve collection and exchange rate stability and will engage with the International Monetary Fund based on the current policy framework, the island’s newly appointed Central Bank Governor W D Lakshman said.
Sri Lanka has depended on debt in the absence of foreign direct investments, he said.
Sri Lanka is at the moment in an IMF program after the central bank’s soft-pegged exchange rate regime got into a crisis in 2015/2016 due to liquidity injections to keep rates down.
“In the external sector, sluggish export performance, large trade deficits, persistent current account deficits, dependence on debt inflows in the absence of alternative levels of FDI inflows, as well as high foreign financing needs are major concerns,” Governor Lakshman said.
“In addition, we need to be watchful of developments in the global economy and financial markets as well.
“In this context, we hope to engage with the IMF, and other multilateral agencies while remaining within the framework of national policy to ensure that the country reverts to a sustainable path of reserve accumulation a prerequisite for exchange rate stability as well.”
The IMF program advocated higher taxes in a strategy called ‘revenue based fiscal consolidation’ dropping a classical liberal view of spending restraint to narrow deficits.
The current administration has cut taxes, and has said it will curtail spending until the economy recovered, but raising some concerns over deficits which had led to an outlook downgrade.
Spokesmen for the administration had also spoken in favour of a strong exchange rate, which requires a floating overnight rate to enforce.
Analysts have pointed out that the current IMF program had multiple anchor conflicts as Sri Lanka targeted a range of domestic and external anchors and goals both de facto and within the program.
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The program had a wide domestic anchor in the form of a performance criteria which analysts warned would leave the door open for loose enough monetary policy to get the rupee into trouble again.
There was also forex reserves target, which involved pegging, as well as a de facto Real Effective Exchange Rate targeting to keep an index below 100, but no ceiling on domestic assets or a floating overnight to provide the ability to enforce either targets.
In addition a perceived output gap was also targeted with excess liquidity and rate cuts with the IMF itself providing tool to calculate it
As result in 2018 just as the economy recovered from the previous crisis liquidity injections were made triggering another fall in the currency, requiring corrective policy generating an negative output shock and higher inflation and bad loans. (Colombo/Dec28/2019)

ResearchMan


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Trisha Peiris, at Frontier Research, a Colombo-based research house said, “The recent changes to taxation can provide room for increased consumption as it increases disposable income, in addition to the public sector salary raise to be implemented from January 1.  They also forecast increased economic activity and growth in the coming year”.Economists and analysts have said,”Sri Lanka’s main challenge in 2020 will be to maintain economic stability with tax cuts expected to boost demand and drive growth higher with more lasting reforms as the country recovers from a currency collapse in 2018”.
After policy statement, investors are looking forward to see the upcoming Roadmap of Monetary and Financial Sector Policies for 2020 to be presented by the CBSL on Monday.
Research, Research & Research!

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Its not an easy task


_________________




Teller said is said..

Eng Krishantha

Eng Krishantha
Expert
Expert
@Teller wrote:Its not an easy task
හොද leadership එකක් තියනවනම් කරන්න බැරි දෙයක් නැ . සමහර විට ඔයාට අමතක ඇති කවූරුත් බැ කියපු යුද්දය අවුරුදු 3.5n ඉවර කලා. ගොඩක් මින්නිස්සු හරිම කුහකයි. අයුලක් නැ සහෝදරයා තව 3 to  4 years ඉවසල බලන්න

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
war is internal , most of the economics factors are external and international. Based on the current trend and the debt we have , its not an easy task . We have to repay 4.6 $ billion this year, but no proper plan , no earnings to repay. Debt will pay debt. Finally its a mega blast. My advise is to sell your shares if you are in enough profit. This is the strategy i do now.

4Corners


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Teller wrote:war is internal , most of the economics factors are external and international. Based on the current trend and the debt we have , its not an easy task . We have to repay 4.6 $ billion this year, but no proper plan , no earnings to repay. Debt will pay debt. Finally its a mega blast. My advise is to sell your shares if you are in enough profit. This is the strategy i do now.
Dear 

TJL also same???

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
We have few shares , those are having potentials. But 85% shares no potentials. I know how these factors combination .
Remember how i recommended some shares from begining. Example MGt @ 9, again 14.40, the same way Lolc @106, lfin @130, the same time i gave my targets. Above targets no guaranteed . Tjl my new target 57, i cleary told sell MGT above 18.40,


_________________




Teller said is said..

jason12


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Dear Teller,

Could you name few gems out of that 15% which have potentials?

thx

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Hehee, thats why i told you to sell prior to market start today


_________________




Teller said is said..

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