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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » CAUTION FOR THOSE WHO ARE ABOUT TO BUY MORE

CAUTION FOR THOSE WHO ARE ABOUT TO BUY MORE

+3
sheildskye
Berryfund
reyaz
7 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

reyaz

reyaz
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The Federal Reserve in the USA is tipped to raise policy interest rates next month. In the experience of many experienced traders, including myself, this usually results in the fall in the ASPI (Generally, a fall in indices of all the stock markets in the world) with bluechip counters taking the biggest hit. We are about to witness heavy foreign and domestic selling. Be alert on the developments!

dayandacool likes this post

Berryfund


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
The best route to trading is to be honest with yourself before anything else and the results will follow!

0014636860 dislikes this post

reyaz

reyaz
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The threat is real as the Sun & the Moon. Words thrown here & there wont change reality!

0014636860 dislikes this post

sheildskye

sheildskye
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is not to argue on your tip, but https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-plans-to-keep-interest-rates-low-heres-why-mortgage-rates-could-rise-anyway-11616013491
suggests that Fed chairman had stated that no rate hikes will be done till 2023. Although latest reports indicate this was brought foward to mid 2022. Your tipper may be wrong in this instance.

reyaz

reyaz
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Even though Americans are not hypocritical, (most of the times atleast) they are forced to change long term decisions in order to respond to certain economic indicators. They know if they delay the response, it will have catastrophic consequences to the economy and ultimately the nation.

0014636860 dislikes this post

reyaz

reyaz
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sheildskye wrote:This is not to argue on your tip, but https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-plans-to-keep-interest-rates-low-heres-why-mortgage-rates-could-rise-anyway-11616013491
suggests that Fed chairman had stated that no rate hikes will be done till 2023. Although latest reports indicate this was brought foward to mid 2022. Your tipper may be wrong in this instance.
Do you know that unemployment rate in the USA is below 5% (trigger) level? In my experience, people who held the Chair position will not hesitate to change direction in policy.

0014636860 dislikes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
US unemployment rate as reported:

March 2021    6%

April 2021       6.1%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273909/seasonally-adjusted-monthly-unemployment-rate-in-the-us/

Investors back off view that Fed could raise rates in late 2022


U.S. investors who had been betting the Fed would raise rates as early as the end of next year abruptly retreated from those positions on Friday after a disappointing April employment report and now see the earliest the Fed might tighten roughly two years away.



https://www.reuters.com/business/investors-back-off-view-that-fed-could-raise-rates-late-2022-2021-05-07/


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Happy Vesak


CAUTION FOR THOSE WHO ARE ABOUT TO BUY MORE E2SWiouXIAI0f65?format=jpg&name=small


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

reyaz

reyaz
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:US unemployment rate as reported:

March 2021    6%

April 2021       6.1%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273909/seasonally-adjusted-monthly-unemployment-rate-in-the-us/

Investors back off view that Fed could raise rates in late 2022


U.S. investors who had been betting the Fed would raise rates as early as the end of next year abruptly retreated from those positions on Friday after a disappointing April employment report and now see the earliest the Fed might tighten roughly two years away.



https://www.reuters.com/business/investors-back-off-view-that-fed-could-raise-rates-late-2022-2021-05-07/

Latest  bloomberg reports suggest unemployment reached 4.8%

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@reyaz wrote:
@samaritan wrote:US unemployment rate as reported:

March 2021    6%

April 2021       6.1%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273909/seasonally-adjusted-monthly-unemployment-rate-in-the-us/

Investors back off view that Fed could raise rates in late 2022


U.S. investors who had been betting the Fed would raise rates as early as the end of next year abruptly retreated from those positions on Friday after a disappointing April employment report and now see the earliest the Fed might tighten roughly two years away.



https://www.reuters.com/business/investors-back-off-view-that-fed-could-raise-rates-late-2022-2021-05-07/

Latest  bloomberg reports suggest unemployment reached 4.8%
Please give the relevant news link.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

sheildskye

sheildskye
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Much as I hate to say this, for many reasons- you are right! FED Chairman has decided to haste things up-- to raise rates sooner than later. Whether it is going to be a raise that will cause a stir in the markets... we are yet to assess.

But this is done to control inflation in the US. And as you indicated a big raise will bring about foreign net selling

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Powell says rate increase only in 2023. Not in 2022.

THUWA and RJ1010 like this post

THUWA


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Powell says rate increase only in 2023. Not in 2022.
Thank you very much for sharing  valuable information

sheildskye

sheildskye
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Without following half-baked media with vicious agendas, follow through this

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210616a.htm
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

dayandacool likes this post

Bakkabwoi

Bakkabwoi
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
too add something to this thread..true there is a caution for whom ever about to buy more.. but there is some detail we need to focus on.. which is our market PE .. its 7.3 atm where other most emerging markets have PEs more than 10 or 15 in our region.. therefore.. even if u dont buy make sure not to sell short to get ur profits out.. hold counters like expo,diped,hayc,cind,alum,lalu etc for the maximum gains.. and if u are buying high buy only the ones that tally with their earnings.. as per stocks like LOLC.. many new comers idea is that it is overvalued..yet i find it has so much space to grow.. given the plans of IN and ofc past FY earnings.. think wise..after all its your money! ! good luck!

sheildskye

sheildskye
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Bakkabwoi wrote:too add something to this thread..true there is a caution for whom ever about to buy more.. but there is some detail we need to focus on.. which is our market PE .. its 7.3 atm where other most emerging markets have PEs more than 10 or 15 in our region.. therefore.. even if u dont buy make sure not to sell short to get ur profits out.. hold counters like expo,diped,hayc,cind,alum,lalu etc for the maximum gains.. and if u are buying high buy only the ones that tally with their earnings.. as per stocks like LOLC.. many new comers idea is that it is overvalued..yet i find it has so much space to grow.. given the plans of IN and ofc past FY earnings.. think wise..after all its your money! ! good luck!
SL has lost her top export ensuring agreement and you are talking about PEs? Foreign nationals are about to pay for political campaigns in this 'democracy'- whatever that means anymore, mortgaging assets of "Sri Lanka". Its only a matter of time that locals are going to perform the biggest capital drain in the country's history-- investing our capital in other countries while you and your friends lose out playing with money in an island with so much potential, it was the rajapaksas who decided to make this just a worthless Monopoly game board.

You can defend the corrupt families, or you can come to terms of reality and do something about it!

dayandacool likes this post

Bakkabwoi

Bakkabwoi
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@sheildskye wrote:
@Bakkabwoi wrote:too add something to this thread..true there is a caution for whom ever about to buy more.. but there is some detail we need to focus on.. which is our market PE .. its 7.3 atm where other most emerging markets have PEs more than 10 or 15 in our region.. therefore.. even if u dont buy make sure not to sell short to get ur profits out.. hold counters like expo,diped,hayc,cind,alum,lalu etc for the maximum gains.. and if u are buying high buy only the ones that tally with their earnings.. as per stocks like LOLC.. many new comers idea is that it is overvalued..yet i find it has so much space to grow.. given the plans of IN and ofc past FY earnings.. think wise..after all its your money! ! good luck!
SL has lost her top export ensuring agreement and you are talking about PEs? Foreign nationals are about to pay for political campaigns in this 'democracy'- whatever that means anymore, mortgaging assets of "Sri Lanka". Its only a matter of time that locals are going to perform the biggest capital drain in the country's history-- investing our capital in other countries while you and your friends lose out playing with money in an island with so much potential, it was the rajapaksas who decided to make this just a worthless Monopoly game board.

You can defend the corrupt families, or you can come to terms of reality and do something about it!


oh well.. i am someone vehemently oppose the regime.. and i know the fact that they have drained the fuck out of our country, there is little we could do about it since, majority has voted for them and bought them back in.. next 3.5yrs we have to suck up and deal with it. Meanwhile i was speaking in regard our market PE, just because our companies and conglomerates are actually doing well and dollar based earning companies like Hayc, Dippeed, Expo lanka, LOLC , MGT . REXP etc have some more juice left to uplift the market. But however its true what you saying...yet the path sri lanka hs been taken is more towards downtrend..lets hope things may turn better..

however Barclays and citi bank has given positive commentsCAUTION FOR THOSE WHO ARE ABOUT TO BUY MORE Whatsa20
on our status

dayandacool likes this post

reyaz

reyaz
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Well, let me add something to the thread I started. The way you are looking at this is different to what I actually intended. Leave politics aside because it is only then you can get the idea. All I want you guys to understand is that even though there was heavy selling by foreign investors, they still have significant holdings of the bluechips. Even though they will opt to hold their investments, for purposes of getting tips that these counters will skyrocket in the future or dividends etc, they have no choice at the end of the day as their job is to follow orders of the floor manager of their hedge fund. Soon as the Fed Chairman announces the raising of interest rates, the floor manager may give the signal to sell, and sell they will. This is to make the funds available on time to invest in the US Treasury bills and bonds. This is the way the world works like it or not.

dayandacool and Bakkabwoi like this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator

[size=18]Tweet[/size]

CAUTION FOR THOSE WHO ARE ABOUT TO BUY MORE JH93CAps_bigger
Imtiaz Buhardeen
@BuhardeenImtiaz
By this Friday I hope we can touch 8k or latest within 5 market days.
Once 8k is breached,I expect a proper bull run to start.
I am seeing good signs now going forward,slowly old issues are getting cleared.
I am more bullish than before and I will upgrade my year end target soon.


9:51 PM · Jul 7, 2021·Twitter for iPhone


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