FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™

Encyclopedia of Latest news, reviews, discussions and analysis of stock market and investment opportunities in Sri Lanka

Latest images

Latest topics

» Why Foreign Sales have gone up during last few days
by D.G.Dayaratne Today at 10:21 am

» Market Performance (2022-2024)
by D.G.Dayaratne Today at 6:10 am

» Excellent Report pending From CTC (Keep eye on CTC )
by Nandana Withanage Yesterday at 9:57 am

» Richard Pieris Exports PLC (REXP.N0000) future looks bleak!
by God Father Wed Feb 21, 2024 3:34 pm

» ANALYSIS: Sri Lanka Car Market 2024
by D.G.Dayaratne Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:14 am

» LOLC Group's stunning performance goes beyond numbers!
by samaritan Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:57 am

» RED ALERT!! from Richard Pieris and Company PLC
by ChooBoy Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:28 pm

» Sri Lanka: China EXIM Bank Debt Moratorium to End in 2024
by God Father Sun Feb 18, 2024 8:29 am

» IPO Failures in Sri Lanka
by God Father Sun Feb 18, 2024 8:21 am

» HOTEL AND TRAVEL SECTOR
by ErangaDS Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:57 pm

» Treasury Bill is an option of Fixed income
by ResearchMan Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:31 pm

» How to defeat Ranil Wickramasinghe at the next Presidential Elections
by D.G.Dayaratne Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:50 pm

» CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
by Gaudente Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:40 pm

» LOLC FINANCE PLC (LOFC.N0000)
by Equity Win Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:14 pm

» CENTRAL FINANCE COMPANY PLC (CFIN.N0000)
by Gaudente Wed Feb 14, 2024 3:28 pm

» Natural Gas Faces Steep Decline
by ResearchMan Wed Feb 14, 2024 1:17 pm

» CSE geared into BULL mode
by deli Tue Feb 13, 2024 8:31 pm

» FIRST CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC (CFVF.N0000)
by Beyondsenses Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:30 am

» EXTERMINATORS PLC (EXT.N0000)
by K.R Thu Feb 08, 2024 9:28 pm

» CENTRAL INDUSTRIES PLC (CIND.N0000)
by K.R Thu Feb 08, 2024 9:21 pm

» Sri Lanka: Banking Sector Stability?
by God Father Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:35 pm

» What will be the First Capital holding's share price by end of 2024
by D.G.Dayaratne Wed Feb 07, 2024 2:31 pm

» TAFL is the most undervalued & highly potential counter in the Poultry Sector
by cseguide Tue Feb 06, 2024 3:11 pm

» Chat2Find Leads Global AI Revolution with Real-time Information
by God Father Sun Feb 04, 2024 11:55 pm

» FINANCE AND LEASING SECTOR
by ResearchMan Sun Feb 04, 2024 2:30 pm

LISTED COMPANIES

Submit Post
ශ්‍රී ලංකා මූල්‍ය වංශකථාව - සිංහල
Submit Post


CONATCT US


Send your suggestions and comments

* - required fields

Read FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ Disclaimer



EXPERT CHRONICLE™

ECONOMIC CHRONICLE

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)



CHRONICLE™ YouTube

Disclaimer
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ Disclaimer

The information contained in this FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ have been submitted by third parties directly without any verification by us. The information available in this forum is not researched or purported to be complete description of the subject matter referred to herein. We do not under any circumstances whatsoever guarantee the accuracy and completeness information contained herein. FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ its blogs, forums, domains, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not in any way be responsible or liable for loss or damage which any person or party may sustain or incur by relying on the contents of this report and acting directly or indirectly in any manner whatsoever. Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility, FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ blogs, forums, domains, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not be liable for any, direct or indirect, consequential or incidental damages or loss arising out of the use of this information. The information on this website is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned herein. The writers may or may not be trading in the securities mentioned.

Further the writers and users shall not induce or attempt to induce another person to trade in securities using this platform (a) by making or publishing any statement or by making any forecast that he knows to be misleading, false or deceptive; (b) by any dishonest concealment of material facts; (c) by the reckless making or publishing, dishonestly or otherwise of any statement or forecast that is misleading, false or deceptive; or (d) by recording or storing in, or by means of, any mechanical, electronic or other device, information that he knows to be false or misleading in a material particular. Any action writers and users take in respect of (a),(b),(c) and (d) above shall be their own responsibility, FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ its blogs, forums, domains, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not be liable for any, direct or indirect, consequential or incidental violation of securities laws of any country, damages or loss arising out of the use of this information.


AI Live Chat

You are not connected. Please login or register

LANKA INDIAN OIL CORPORATION - Maharaja

2 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1LANKA INDIAN OIL CORPORATION - Maharaja Empty LANKA INDIAN OIL CORPORATION - Maharaja Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:07 pm

Maharaja


Expert
Expert

( FYI : Not investment advise, do your own research )

Due to many of requests from you all, I decided to do a little article.

Below is the inputs for last qtr

April 2022

Avg World Oil prices (WTI) - $105

LIOC selling prices

Petrol (92 Octane) – Rs. 338/-
Petrol (95 Octane) – Rs. 367/-
Auto Diesel – Rs. 289/-
Super Diesel – Rs. 327/-

May 2022

Avg World Oil prices (WTI) - $114

LIOC selling prices

Petrol (92 Octane) – Rs. 420/-
Petrol (95 Octane) – Rs. 450/-
Auto Diesel – Rs. 400/-
Super Diesel – Rs. 445/-


June 2022

Avg World Oil prices (WTI) - $123

LIOC selling prices

Petrol (92 Octane) – Rs. 470/-
Petrol (95 Octane) – Rs. 550/-
Auto Diesel – Rs. 460/-
Super Diesel – Rs. 520/-

April/June financial

Qtr Rev - 49.9 Bn
Qtr Cost of sale - 34.4 Bn
Qtr GP - 15.5 Bn
Other costs - 5.6 Bn
Profit - 9.9 Bn
EPS - 18.6


Now lets predict the next qtr


July 2022

Avg World Oil prices (WTI) - $91

Petrol (92 Octane) – Rs. 450/-
Petrol (95 Octane) – Rs. 540/-
Auto Diesel – Rs. 440/-
Super Diesel – Rs. 510/-

* Oil barrel drop is $32/barrel ($123-$91) (compared to June)
* Selling price drop is only Rs.10 & Rs.20
Result - Huge jump in gross profit value



August 2022


Avg World Oil prices (WTI) - $ 86 and falling

Petrol (92 Octane) – Rs. 450/- NO CHANGE
Petrol (95 Octane) – Rs. 540/-  - NO CHANGE
Auto Diesel – Rs. 430/-  ONLY Rs.10/- Decrease
Super Diesel – Rs. 510/-  NO CHANGE

* Oil barrel drop is $5/barrel ($91-$86) (compared to July)
* Selling price drop is only Rs.10 (only diesel)
Result - Another huge jump in gross profit value


September 2022

Avg World Oil prices (WTI) - predict $70-$75

Assume they decrease Rs.20/- for all fuel types

Petrol (92 Octane) – Rs. 430/- 
Petrol (95 Octane) – Rs. 520/-  - 
Auto Diesel – Rs. 410/-  
Super Diesel – Rs. 480/- 

*Oil barrel drop is $15/barrel (compared to Aug)
* Selling price drop is only Rs.20
Result - Still I expect increase gross profit value


Conclusion 


Cost of sale is reduced from 43% by Sep 2022 compared to April 2022.
But Rev reduced only 8..5% max (assume 9%)

Result = 43%-9% =34% increase in GP

July-Sep Qtr GP - 15.5 Bn x 134% =20.8
Other costs - 5.6 Bn 
Profit - 15.2 Bn
July-Sep EPS - Rs.28.5




Oct - Dec 2022 - 50 more sheds will come and Rev will again jump by 23.4%


50 new shed /213 existing sheds *100 = 23.4%


So lets assume 20% growth in EPS for Oct-Dec


Oct-Dec Qtr eps - Rs.28.5 x120% = Rs.34.2


Then Jan - Mar 2023  lets expect a EPS drop of 30% (worst case)


Jan-Mar 2023 Qtr EPS - Rs. 24.0




Lets add and calculate the Net earnings for the next financial year.


April - June 2022 - Rs.18.6
July - Sep 2022 - Rs.28.5
Oct - Dec 2022 - Rs.34.2
Jan - Mar 2023 - Rs.24
Total - Rs.105.3


Lets round off to Rs.100/- for easier understanding


At PE of 6 the share must trade at Rs.600/-








Maharaja



Chula


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

Thanks, your calculations look very reasonable. Your predictions are generally pretty good. 

However, with all due respect Maharaja, if Russia oil gets in to the market and starts dumping petrol @100 Rs LESS than the Sri Lanka market price (selling at a loss to catch the market), what will happen? All the people will start pumping Russia oil and LIOC monopoly may get crumbled. LIOC will not have the power to bring down the price as much as Russia oil as they indirectly get oil from them. Moreover, Sri Lanka won't be able to intervene as they have only a maximum retail price. What do you think will happen at such a scenario? Frankly, I hope it doesn't happen. But in the business world, with head on competition, nothing is impossible. 

The main reason, I am writing this as in these forums rarely do they discuss opposing views. This was clear when EXPO was at 400 and there were Marginal trading issues. Most of the indicators were predicting that the market was going down. However, very few pointed out that possibilities while EXPO was declining between 400 - 170. 

-Chula-



Last edited by Chula on Mon Aug 22, 2022 9:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

Maharaja


Expert
Expert

Ceypetco is not competitive business operation.
Ceypetco is only competitive in corruption and mis-management.
Do not worry about those donkeys.


Maharaja

Chula


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

Hope so Maharaja. You got a good point. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

Sponsored content



Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum