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Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!

+7
God Father
D.G.Dayaratne
Citizen Silva
rajini
blindhog
ChooBoy
DeepFreakingValue
11 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:14 am

DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

FALLING KNIVES!!
EXPOLANKA & LIOC

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Ffsukn10

LANKA IOC
Price of Petrol 92 will be reduced by Rs 40 per liter & Price of Auto Diesel by Rs 15 per liter from 9pm today. The new price of Petrol 92 will be Rs 370 per liter & Auto Diesel Rs 415 per liter. Prices on other petroleum products will remain the same.
https://twitter.com/kanchana_wij/status/1581921452475183104?s=20&t=N-VdGvwQcIhynCA4pWTXpg
Lanka IOC will also reduce its petrol and diesel prices in line with the price reduction of Ceypetco - LIOC- http://adaderana.lk

EXPOLANKA
How falling shipping rates have taken the market by surprise
Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US are falling towards pre-pandemic levels and may still have further to drop, while long shipping delays are increasingly disappearing from the market, according to analysts.
https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2022/october/how-falling-shipping-rates-have-taken-the-market-by-surprise/

Margins become thinner when turnover come down.
Eg:
100bn X 10% = 10bn
10bn X 10% = 1bn
Turnover ⬇
Profits ⬇
EPS ⬇
Share Price ⬇

ashan silva likes this post

Riz123 and ADVENTUS dislike this post

2Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:32 am

ChooBoy


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

අත කැපිල ඉවරයි

ADVENTUS dislikes this post

3Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:44 am

blindhog


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Probably another 15-20 % down

Riz123 and ADVENTUS dislike this post

4Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 6:18 pm

rajini


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

some people says ASI will fail to 6700 due to new tax reforms.

DeepFreakingValue likes this post

Riz123 and ADVENTUS dislike this post

5Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Oct 26, 2022 1:51 pm

Citizen Silva


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

blindhog wrote:Probably another 15-20 % down


Feel your pain bro. However hopefully there will be better times ahead. Global recession is dragging Sri lanka down further but have faith in our people and country, there is a lot of good talent here and Sri Lanka will overcome this crisis.

ErangaDS likes this post

6Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 12:40 am

blindhog


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Citizen Silva wrote:
blindhog wrote:Probably another 15-20 % down


Feel your pain bro. However hopefully there will be better times ahead. Global recession is dragging Sri lanka down further but have faith in our people and country, there is a lot of good talent here and Sri Lanka will overcome this crisis.

I wish we are. my comment on stock market which not the economy. stock market connected to the money printer.

7Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:24 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Only good thing is not much manipulation now.Stock market reflect real position of the Economy.

Therefore you can predict the market and take decision.

8Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 1:38 pm

Citizen Silva


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:Only good thing is not much manipulation now.Stock market reflect real position of the Economy.

Therefore you can predict the market and take decisionWhat you say is true, manipulation 
Agree, what you say is true true that market manipulation by few big sharks has reduced. Many smaller investors are weary, hurt badly by past manipulations and shy of investing now due to lack of trust in the system. It may take time to regain trust. Opportunities in some good companies abound.

D.G.Dayaratne likes this post

9Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 3:12 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

YOU CAN SEE  HIGH TAXES IN ANY COUNTRY WITH PROPERLY FUNCTIONING STOCK MARKET

TAXES WILL NOT BE A BIG PROBLEM IN THE LONG-RUN.

ErangaDS likes this post

10Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:05 pm

DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Falling Crude Oil Prices to affect LIOC
Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Fgp7jj10

After surging by about 60% in 2022, energy prices are expected to decline 11% next year. But despite this moderation, energy prices next year will still be 75% above their average over the past five years. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/26/commodity-markets-outlook?cid=ECR_TT_worldbank_EN_EXT

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Screen53

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Screen54


Falling Shipping Rates to affect EXPOLANKA
Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Fgj3kr10

Shipping Rates are on the decline.
Simply remarkable: shipping rate for 40-ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has slipped below long-term average (going back to 2011, full series), putting to bed notion that shipping rates are still elevated relative to entire pre-pandemic era

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Screen52

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Screen55

Chula likes this post

11Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:24 pm

God Father


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Scree135

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Scree136

https://www.investing.com/equities/expolanka-hldg-chart

glad likes this post

12Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:27 pm

hammurabi

hammurabi
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

EXPO is expected to crash in coming weeks. There are big sharks stuck at EXPO and LIOC. And as margin becomes thinner, billions will be wiped out from the market. Both the stocks will bring down ASPI to 5000 - 6000 level. EXPO will never gain its previous high in another 10 years as 3rd Q report will show losses. Those holding in large quantities should pray for another pandemic or World War 3.
On the other side, Banks gonna catch debt restructuring fever.

13Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 02, 2022 11:04 pm

rajini


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

On the other hand the major share holder has purchased 4% from the other major share holders around 220 - 230. Now the price has been dropped 40% from the purchased price. It is very attractive to re enter and push the prices to the sky as public holding has been reduced. The core business is not taxable from Sri Lanka
The bad side is the margins of the core business getting reduced lot.

14Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:45 pm

DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

LIOC & EXPOLANKA TECHNICAL CHARTS

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  C5824110
Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  3c993b10

ADVENTUS dislikes this post

15Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:57 pm

DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  5c13bd10

16Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:55 pm

DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

EXPOLANKA - Latest Technical Chart
As per current Technical trend EXPO share price can reach as high as LKR 229/= whereas median price is only LKR 148/=. Fundamental valuation of EXPO shares based on 3X of future earnings is less than LKR 100/=
Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Screen75

EXPOLANKA FUNDAMENTAL/EARNINGS VALUATION

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Fgk2gf10

LANKA IOC - Latest Technical Chart

As per current Technical trend LIOC share price can reach as high as LKR 218/= whereas median price is only LKR 140/=. Fundamental valuation of LIOC shares based on 3X of future earnings is less than LKR 150/=

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Screen76

LIOC FUNDAMENTAL/EARNINGS VALUATION

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Fgpjgr10

https://twitter.com/danukalive/status/1586362276315267072?s=20&t=owxuIFYo9V3iAOAmtLJybw

Warning:
Share prices move both up and down as a result of the behaviour of the market players and sentiments. Analysing prices based on this is called technical analysis. It does not necessarily mean that the share is fundamentally worth that price based on its future earnings.

17Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:02 pm

DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

EXPOLANKA Latest results is a clear indicating of how sharp is the falling knives in comparison to Falling earnings. LIOC will see the similar fate soon!

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Fnfdzr10

#EXPO fair value calculation based on financials. Compared to last Q, Rev -42% GP -27% PBT-66%. Im expecting the biggest fall of EXPO with this results. It may settle around 130 initially but based on EPS price can go less than 100

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Fnfq_810

Rational Investor likes this post

18Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:52 pm

God Father


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! 
#EXPO #LIOC
Margins become thinner when turnover come down.
Eg: 100bn X 10% = 10bn
10bn X 10% = 1bn

EXPO - Shipping Rates Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  2b07  
LIOC - Fuel Prices Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  2b07
Turnover 
Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  2b07 Net Profits Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  2b07
EPS Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  2b07 Share Price Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  2b07 Share Price Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  2b07

19Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:59 am

target1


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Smart Value investors are trying to catch falling knives(diamonds only).

20Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:28 am

Rational Investor

Rational Investor
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

EXPO will settle on its real value.

below Rs100/- once the March 2023 results are published based on the earnings.

21Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:33 pm

DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Lanka IOC (LIOC.N0000) latest results for 3Q 2022/23 quarter indicate sharp decline in earnings.  3Q EPS is only LKR 15.46 per share compared to 2Q22 EPS of LKR 22.21 per shares a decline of more than 33%.

3Q2022/23
Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Img_2710

2Q2022/23
Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Img_2712

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/729_1674561096306.pdf

22Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Jul 25, 2023 1:47 pm

God Father


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

DeepFreakingValue wrote:FALLING KNIVES!!
EXPOLANKA & LIOC

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Ffsukn10

LANKA IOC
Price of Petrol 92 will be reduced by Rs 40 per liter & Price of Auto Diesel by Rs 15 per liter from 9pm today. The new price of Petrol 92 will be Rs 370 per liter & Auto Diesel Rs 415 per liter. Prices on other petroleum products will remain the same.
https://twitter.com/kanchana_wij/status/1581921452475183104?s=20&t=N-VdGvwQcIhynCA4pWTXpg
Lanka IOC will also reduce its petrol and diesel prices in line with the price reduction of Ceypetco - LIOC- http://adaderana.lk

EXPOLANKA
How falling shipping rates have taken the market by surprise
Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US are falling towards pre-pandemic levels and may still have further to drop, while long shipping delays are increasingly disappearing from the market, according to analysts.
https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2022/october/how-falling-shipping-rates-have-taken-the-market-by-surprise/

Margins become thinner when turnover come down.
Eg:
100bn X 10% = 10bn
10bn X 10% = 1bn
Turnover ⬇
Profits ⬇
EPS ⬇
Share Price ⬇


LATEST RESULTS OF LIOC
https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/729_1690194208553.06.2023%20CSE.pdf

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Scree343

23Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!  Empty Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Jul 26, 2023 8:50 am

ResearchMan

ResearchMan
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

I sold entire my TB. What I did.


Took a fairly large position in a falling growth stock (not a falling knife, but a future multibagger).
Targeted few slow risers (Anti-crowded stocks).
Targeted strong balance sheets.
Avoided rapid risers


Remaining funds waiting for the next move.


In every situation I have an opportunity in this market.

God Father likes this post

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