Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!

DeepFreakingValue · 1 Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:14 am

DeepFreakingValue

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 217
Equity Stars : 5778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2010-05-08

FALLING KNIVES!!
EXPOLANKA & LIOC

LANKA IOC
Price of Petrol 92 will be reduced by Rs 40 per liter & Price of Auto Diesel by Rs 15 per liter from 9pm today. The new price of Petrol 92 will be Rs 370 per liter & Auto Diesel Rs 415 per liter. Prices on other petroleum products will remain the same.
https://twitter.com/kanchana_wij/status/1581921452475183104?s=20&t=N-VdGvwQcIhynCA4pWTXpg
Lanka IOC will also reduce its petrol and diesel prices in line with the price reduction of Ceypetco - LIOC- http://adaderana.lk

EXPOLANKA
How falling shipping rates have taken the market by surprise
Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US are falling towards pre-pandemic levels and may still have further to drop, while long shipping delays are increasingly disappearing from the market, according to analysts.
https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2022/october/how-falling-shipping-rates-have-taken-the-market-by-surprise/

Margins become thinner when turnover come down.
Eg:
100bn X 10% = 10bn
10bn X 10% = 1bn
Turnover

Profits

EPS

Share Price

ChooBoy · 2 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:32 am

ChooBoy

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 426
Equity Stars : 2905
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2019-01-31

අත කැපිල ඉවරයි

blindhog · 3 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:44 am

blindhog

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 74
Equity Stars : 1590
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2020-10-08
Location : London

Probably another 15-20 % down

rajini · 4 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 6:18 pm

rajini

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 148
Equity Stars : 1800
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2020-07-27

some people says ASI will fail to 6700 due to new tax reforms.

Citizen Silva · 5 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Oct 26, 2022 1:51 pm

Citizen Silva

Equity Analytic

Posts : 26
Equity Stars : 1539
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2020-10-13

blindhog wrote:Probably another 15-20 % down

Feel your pain bro. However hopefully there will be better times ahead. Global recession is dragging Sri lanka down further but have faith in our people and country, there is a lot of good talent here and Sri Lanka will overcome this crisis.

blindhog · 6 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 12:40 am

blindhog

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 74
Equity Stars : 1590
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2020-10-08
Location : London

Citizen Silva wrote:

blindhog wrote:Probably another 15-20 % down

Feel your pain bro. However hopefully there will be better times ahead. Global recession is dragging Sri lanka down further but have faith in our people and country, there is a lot of good talent here and Sri Lanka will overcome this crisis.

I wish we are. my comment on stock market which not the economy. stock market connected to the money printer.

D.G.Dayaratne · 7 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:24 am

D.G.Dayaratne

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2037
Equity Stars : 8931
Reputation : 57
Join date : 2011-12-13
Location : Kotte

Only good thing is not much manipulation now.Stock market reflect real position of the Economy.

Therefore you can predict the market and take decision.

Citizen Silva · 8 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 1:38 pm

Citizen Silva

Equity Analytic

Posts : 26
Equity Stars : 1539
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2020-10-13

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:Only good thing is not much manipulation now.Stock market reflect real position of the Economy.

Therefore you can predict the market and take decisionWhat you say is true, manipulation

Agree, what you say is true true that market manipulation by few big sharks has reduced. Many smaller investors are weary, hurt badly by past manipulations and shy of investing now due to lack of trust in the system. It may take time to regain trust. Opportunities in some good companies abound.

D.G.Dayaratne · 9 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 3:12 pm

D.G.Dayaratne

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2037
Equity Stars : 8931
Reputation : 57
Join date : 2011-12-13
Location : Kotte

YOU CAN SEE HIGH TAXES IN ANY COUNTRY WITH PROPERLY FUNCTIONING STOCK MARKET

TAXES WILL NOT BE A BIG PROBLEM IN THE LONG-RUN.

DeepFreakingValue · 10 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:05 pm

DeepFreakingValue

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 217
Equity Stars : 5778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2010-05-08

Falling Crude Oil Prices to affect LIOC

After surging by about 60% in 2022, energy prices are expected to decline 11% next year. But despite this moderation, energy prices next year will still be 75% above their average over the past five years. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/26/commodity-markets-outlook?cid=ECR_TT_worldbank_EN_EXT

Falling Shipping Rates to affect EXPOLANKA

Shipping Rates are on the decline.
Simply remarkable: shipping rate for 40-ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has slipped below long-term average (going back to 2011, full series), putting to bed notion that shipping rates are still elevated relative to entire pre-pandemic era

God Father · 11 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:24 pm

God Father

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 474
Equity Stars : 3021
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2019-03-23

https://www.investing.com/equities/expolanka-hldg-chart

hammurabi · 12 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:27 pm

hammurabi

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 188
Equity Stars : 2339
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2019-03-23
Location : Colombo

EXPO is expected to crash in coming weeks. There are big sharks stuck at EXPO and LIOC. And as margin becomes thinner, billions will be wiped out from the market. Both the stocks will bring down ASPI to 5000 - 6000 level. EXPO will never gain its previous high in another 10 years as 3rd Q report will show losses. Those holding in large quantities should pray for another pandemic or World War 3.
On the other side, Banks gonna catch debt restructuring fever.

rajini · 13 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 02, 2022 11:04 pm

rajini

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 148
Equity Stars : 1800
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2020-07-27

On the other hand the major share holder has purchased 4% from the other major share holders around 220 - 230. Now the price has been dropped 40% from the purchased price. It is very attractive to re enter and push the prices to the sky as public holding has been reduced. The core business is not taxable from Sri Lanka
The bad side is the margins of the core business getting reduced lot.

DeepFreakingValue · 14 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:45 pm

DeepFreakingValue

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 217
Equity Stars : 5778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2010-05-08

LIOC & EXPOLANKA TECHNICAL CHARTS

DeepFreakingValue · 15 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:57 pm

DeepFreakingValue

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 217
Equity Stars : 5778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2010-05-08

DeepFreakingValue · 16 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:55 pm

DeepFreakingValue

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 217
Equity Stars : 5778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2010-05-08

EXPOLANKA - Latest Technical Chart
As per current Technical trend EXPO share price can reach as high as LKR 229/= whereas median price is only LKR 148/=. Fundamental valuation of EXPO shares based on 3X of future earnings is less than LKR 100/=

EXPOLANKA FUNDAMENTAL/EARNINGS VALUATION

LANKA IOC - Latest Technical Chart

As per current Technical trend LIOC share price can reach as high as LKR 218/= whereas median price is only LKR 140/=. Fundamental valuation of LIOC shares based on 3X of future earnings is less than LKR 150/=

LIOC FUNDAMENTAL/EARNINGS VALUATION

https://twitter.com/danukalive/status/1586362276315267072?s=20&t=owxuIFYo9V3iAOAmtLJybw

Warning:
Share prices move both up and down as a result of the behaviour of the market players and sentiments. Analysing prices based on this is called technical analysis. It does not necessarily mean that the share is fundamentally worth that price based on its future earnings.

DeepFreakingValue · 17 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:02 pm

DeepFreakingValue

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 217
Equity Stars : 5778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2010-05-08

EXPOLANKA Latest results is a clear indicating of how sharp is the falling knives in comparison to Falling earnings. LIOC will see the similar fate soon!

#EXPO fair value calculation based on financials. Compared to last Q, Rev -42% GP -27% PBT-66%. Im expecting the biggest fall of EXPO with this results. It may settle around 130 initially but based on EPS price can go less than 100

God Father · 18 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:52 pm

God Father

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 474
Equity Stars : 3021
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2019-03-23

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!
#EXPO #LIOC
Margins become thinner when turnover come down.
Eg: 100bn X 10% = 10bn
10bn X 10% = 1bn
EXPO - Shipping Rates

LIOC - Fuel Prices

Turnover

Net Profits

EPS

Share Price

target1 · 19 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:59 am

target1

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 228
Equity Stars : 2273
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2019-10-23

Smart Value investors are trying to catch falling knives(diamonds only).

Rational Investor · 20 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:28 am

Rational Investor

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 417
Equity Stars : 2115
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2020-05-12
Location : Dubai

EXPO will settle on its real value.

below Rs100/- once the March 2023 results are published based on the earnings.

DeepFreakingValue · 21 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:33 pm

DeepFreakingValue

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 217
Equity Stars : 5778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2010-05-08

Lanka IOC (LIOC.N0000) latest results for 3Q 2022/23 quarter indicate sharp decline in earnings. 3Q EPS is only LKR 15.46 per share compared to 2Q22 EPS of LKR 22.21 per shares a decline of more than 33%.

3Q2022/23

2Q2022/23

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/729_1674561096306.pdf

God Father · 22 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Jul 25, 2023 1:47 pm

God Father

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 474
Equity Stars : 3021
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2019-03-23

DeepFreakingValue wrote:FALLING KNIVES!!
EXPOLANKA & LIOC

LANKA IOC
Price of Petrol 92 will be reduced by Rs 40 per liter & Price of Auto Diesel by Rs 15 per liter from 9pm today. The new price of Petrol 92 will be Rs 370 per liter & Auto Diesel Rs 415 per liter. Prices on other petroleum products will remain the same.
https://twitter.com/kanchana_wij/status/1581921452475183104?s=20&t=N-VdGvwQcIhynCA4pWTXpg
Lanka IOC will also reduce its petrol and diesel prices in line with the price reduction of Ceypetco - LIOC- http://adaderana.lk

EXPOLANKA
How falling shipping rates have taken the market by surprise
Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US are falling towards pre-pandemic levels and may still have further to drop, while long shipping delays are increasingly disappearing from the market, according to analysts.
https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2022/october/how-falling-shipping-rates-have-taken-the-market-by-surprise/

Margins become thinner when turnover come down.
Eg:
100bn X 10% = 10bn
10bn X 10% = 1bn
Turnover
Profits
EPS
Share Price

LATEST RESULTS OF LIOC
https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/729_1690194208553.06.2023%20CSE.pdf

ResearchMan · 23 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Jul 26, 2023 8:50 am

ResearchMan

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 279
Equity Stars : 2288
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2019-11-13

I sold entire my TB. What I did.

Took a fairly large position in a falling growth stock (not a falling knife, but a future multibagger).
Targeted few slow risers (Anti-crowded stocks).
Targeted strong balance sheets.
Avoided rapid risers

Remaining funds waiting for the next move.

In every situation I have an opportunity in this market.

Sponsored content

Name*:
Phone number:
Email address*:
Comments*:
* - required fields	Learn

Name*:
Phone number:
Email address*:
Comments*:
* - required fields	Learn

Latest topics

Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!

1 Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:14 am

DeepFreakingValue

2 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:32 am

ChooBoy

3 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:44 am

blindhog

4 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Oct 25, 2022 6:18 pm

rajini

5 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Oct 26, 2022 1:51 pm

Citizen Silva

6 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 12:40 am

blindhog

7 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:24 am

D.G.Dayaratne

8 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 1:38 pm

Citizen Silva

9 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Thu Oct 27, 2022 3:12 pm

D.G.Dayaratne

10 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:05 pm

DeepFreakingValue

11 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:24 pm

God Father

12 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:27 pm

hammurabi

13 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 02, 2022 11:04 pm

rajini

14 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:45 pm

DeepFreakingValue

15 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:57 pm

DeepFreakingValue

16 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:55 pm

DeepFreakingValue

17 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:02 pm

DeepFreakingValue

18 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:52 pm

God Father

19 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:59 am

target1

20 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:28 am

Rational Investor

21 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:33 pm

DeepFreakingValue

22 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Tue Jul 25, 2023 1:47 pm

God Father

23 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!! Wed Jul 26, 2023 8:50 am

ResearchMan

24 Re: Don't Catch Falling Knives!!!

Sponsored content

New topics