AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000)

wmdcf · 1 AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:38 pm

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Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC is principally engaged in hoteliering. The Company manages hotels in two principal areas: Sri Lanka and South Asian and Middle East sector. It owns and manages over 20 hotels and resorts in Sri Lanka, India, Oman and Maldives under brands, including Heritance Hotels and Resorts and Adaaran Resorts and Spa. The Company's hotels and resorts in Sri Lanka include Heritance Ahungalla, Heritance Kandalama, Heritance Tea Factory, Heritance Ayurveda Maha Gedara, Heritance Negombo, Hotel Hilltop, Earl's Regency, Bandarawela Hotel, Amethyst Resort Passikudah and Turyaa Kalutara. It operates Turyaa Chennai in India. The Company operates Al Falaj Hotel, Desert Nights Camp, Ruwi Hotel, Al Wadi Hotel and Sur Plaza Hotel in Oman. The Company's hotels and resorts in Maldives include Adaaran Club Rannalhi, Adaaran Select Hudhuran Fushi, Adaaran Select Meedhupparu, Adaaran Prestige Vadoo and Adaaran Prestige Water Villas. It is a subsidiary of Aitken Spence PLC.

Dear Experts,

I’m holding AHUN with losses brought @ 107. Is there any chance to move up in near feature? OR better to sell at this level?

Please advice.
Thank You.

saman123 · 2 AHUN Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:06 pm

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same as you , AHUN with losses brought @ 108, Please advice what wil be happen in near fetutre.

tubal · 3 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:25 pm

tubal

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IMHO, it's never a good idea to sell a share that has been stagnating. They tend to move up (and sometimes down) the moment you sell them. Sometimes, you just have to sit and wait. You can easily spot if the price is going to drop in a big way instead of going up - when the buying support disappears. If that doesn't happen, just wait.

As a great example, I will give you DIAL. This was ranging betwee 11.20 and 11:50 for the whole year. Today it went upto 12:00 those who sold at 11:20 sold at the bottom.

wmdcf · 4 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:44 pm

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Thanks for your reply!

Found some article on DM. will this effect to the share price?
http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/34835.html
http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/34997.html

Last edited by wmdcf on Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:44 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : format)

tubal · 5 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:47 pm

tubal

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Well, I just made a post yesterday saying don't buy on newspaper stories

wis · 6 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:54 pm

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Well, you know what, when I was reading the material of the most well known market manipulator in some other site some time back I felt that this was his next target.
He avoided naming the share (because he needs to collect them at a low price before pumping it up) but there were lots of hints in his responses specially when others mentioned this share.

Gaja · 7 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:34 pm

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http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/521_1297425214.pdf

wmdcf · 8 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:40 pm

wmdcf

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I dont know how to read this. Please help me to find the actual market value of this share.
Thanks

tubal · 9 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:11 pm

tubal

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wmdcf wrote: I dont know how to read this. Please help me to find the actual market value of this share.
Thanks

The actual market value of the share is the days closing price

DK · 10 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Mon Feb 14, 2011 2:08 pm

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I have been holding AHUN and SPEN for a while now and have been expecting it to go up, like someone else mentioned, it is not wise to sell a share when it is stagnating.

Today I realised that despite a 30% gain in the profit, the share has fallen down. I cannot give any recommendations, but I think I will hold it for a few more months.

wmdcf · 11 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:30 pm

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Experts, Can anybody calc the projected price would be according to the Q3.?
Thanks.

Quibit

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Hinting a trend that is going to continue hereafter, Sri Lanka's Aitken Spence Hotels PLC showed that the firm's profitability is boosted by Sri Lankan operations, as opposed to the earlier fashion which the company's bottom line was strengthened by South Asian operations.

According to the interim results released to the Colombo Stock Exchange for the months ended 2010, the firm's Sri Lankan sector has brought in a Profit Before Tax (PBT) of Rs.401 million for the nine months against Rs.145 million PBT recorded by the South Asian operations, which are in Maldives and India.

For the December quarter the company has seen its nett profit rise by 30 to Rs.273 million, before deducting preference dividends. The Earnings per Share (EPS) for the quarter lies at of Rs 0.8 while Book Value of Equity per Share (BVPS) is at Rs24.9.

But operating profits fell 9.0 percent to Rs.351 million during the quarter with higher expenses and lower other operating income from Rs.25 million rupees to Rs.3.5 million
The company's bottom line was also boosted by sharply lower interest costs, higher associate contribution and lower minority charges.

For the nine months ended December 2010 the company's post profit rocketed 324 percent to Rs.444 million. During the period the company incurred a capital expenditure of Rs.344 million.

During the first quarter the company made a rights issue of one ordinary share for every four shares held at Rs. 260/- per share and raised Rs. 2.5 billion to finance the future expansions of the group
The Shares of the Company were then subdivided on November 22nd last year subsequent to the approval by the shareholders at an Extra Ordinary general meeting on the basis of 07 shares for every 01 ordinary share held.

Consequent to the subdivision the number of ordinary shares of the company increased from 48,041,430, to 336,290,010 without any change to the stated capital of Rs. 3,554,587,800 of the company.

Courtesy- Daily Mirror

Gaja · 13 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:48 am

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when we go through their plans also they now promote the Hotels here, also according to their plans they need more money to continue their projects as they planned, so i am waiting to see how they going to finance it? because i don't think parent company also not in a position to support to much because they also in aggressive expansion and therefore they also looks for cash

ShareShares · 14 SPEN and AHUN Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:16 am

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Quibit wrote:Hinting a trend that is going to continue hereafter, Sri Lanka's Aitken Spence Hotels PLC showed that the firm's profitability is boosted by Sri Lankan operations, as opposed to the earlier fashion which the company's bottom line was strengthened by South Asian operations.

According to the interim results released to the Colombo Stock Exchange for the months ended 2010, the firm's Sri Lankan sector has brought in a Profit Before Tax (PBT) of Rs.401 million for the nine months against Rs.145 million PBT recorded by the South Asian operations, which are in Maldives and India.

For the December quarter the company has seen its nett profit rise by 30 to Rs.273 million, before deducting preference dividends. The Earnings per Share (EPS) for the quarter lies at of Rs 0.8 while Book Value of Equity per Share (BVPS) is at Rs24.9.

But operating profits fell 9.0 percent to Rs.351 million during the quarter with higher expenses and lower other operating income from Rs.25 million rupees to Rs.3.5 million
The company's bottom line was also boosted by sharply lower interest costs, higher associate contribution and lower minority charges.

For the nine months ended December 2010 the company's post profit rocketed 324 percent to Rs.444 million. During the period the company incurred a capital expenditure of Rs.344 million.

During the first quarter the company made a rights issue of one ordinary share for every four shares held at Rs. 260/- per share and raised Rs. 2.5 billion to finance the future expansions of the group
The Shares of the Company were then subdivided on November 22nd last year subsequent to the approval by the shareholders at an Extra Ordinary general meeting on the basis of 07 shares for every 01 ordinary share held.

Consequent to the subdivision the number of ordinary shares of the company increased from 48,041,430, to 336,290,010 without any change to the stated capital of Rs. 3,554,587,800 of the company.

Courtesy- Daily Mirror

Both SPEN and AHUN continue to shows EPS growth. SPEN and AHUN continue to engage in new profitable ventures. There are new projects in hotel sector, transportation, power and ports expansion projects and investments. Fundamentals in both PLCs are good as it is evident by the financial results. I consider SPEN and AHUN are two of the best and reliable shares in the CSE. Most of the hotels do not show profits KHL is also marginal where as AHUN already show a growth in profits. AHUN continue to remain as one of the best hotel sector shares.

ShareShares · 15 SPEN and AHUN Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:19 am

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SPEN and AHUN December financials can be seen on the CSE website.

xhora · 16 AHUN, is this Undervalued? Sat May 14, 2011 2:53 pm

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I have done some research into AHUN.N as I brought this at 90.40. This is my first time publishing something like this so this may be completely wrong. And please correct me if I'm wrong. So here we go.

I have collected data from financial statements available from June 2009
Note that all figures in Millions and rounded to the nearest integer.

	FY 2009/2010	Q4 March 2010	Q1 June 2010	Q2 Sep 2010	Q3 Dec 2010
Revenue	7,326	2,416	1,514	1,783	2,076
Oprating Prof.	1,152	698	5	195	351
Net Profit to Equity Holders	523	419	18	152	272
NA	5189	5189	7585	8292	8549
Shares	38.4	38.4	48	48	336

Comparison of results between 2010 & 2009

	Q1 June	Q2 September	Q3 December	Q4 March
2009/2010	(114)	8.5	210	419
2010/2011	18	152	272	N/A
Change %	220%	160%	30%	N/A

The drop in profitability in June quarter is evident from results as far as from 2008. This maybe due to low tourist arrivals in summer season. But overall we can see that profitability has gone up. And AHUN has expanded it's portfolio of hotels in the past year.

Trailing PE calculation

Profits attributable to Equity Holders
419+18+152+272 = 861 Million

Weighted average Shares
38.4X3/12 + 48 X 6/12 + 336 X 3/12 = 117.6 million

So EPS as per accounting Standers using weighted average
861/117.6 = 7.32

Using current shares of 336 million
EPS would be 861/336 = 2.56

Using the latest closing price of Rs.91.20
Accounting PE (91.20/7.32) = 12.46
Normal PE (91.20/2.56) = 35.63

Expected Earnings
With the growth of overall tourism sector and considering the peak tourist arrivals in March quarter it would be safe to assume that we can see at least 20% growth in March 2010 quarter with respect to March 2009 results.

So Expected Profits = 419 X 120% = 503

With this expected earnings for FY 2010/2011
18+152+272+503 = 945
This is a 80% growth compared to last year.

Weighted average shares
48 X 6/12 +336 X 6/12 = 192

Accounting EPS = 945/192 = 4.92
Corresponding PE ration (91.20/4.92) = 18.53

Normal EPS (945/336) = 2.81
Corresponding PE ration (91.20/2.81) = 32.45

Technical Analysis

AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Ahun10

AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Ahun10

I'm not a master of Technical Analysis but yesterday AHUN has formed a pattern called "MORNING STAR" Pattern. This is a bullish reversal Indication. And also note that the MACD has crossed over and volumes are growing. Is this a start of a Bullish run from AHUN? If so what will be the upper limit for this counter?

Summery

	Accounting	Normal
Trialling PE	12.46	35.63
Expected PE	18.53	32.45

Experts what is a suitable PE ratio for Hotel industry?
According to CSE, Hotel and Travel sector has a PE ration of around 100. And Most of the resorts that are similar to AHUN has PE around 40~50.

Is this share overvalued at the current price? What will be the future of AHUN?

Slstock · 17 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 3:15 pm

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Xhora

Very good effort and analysis. Rep from me though I don';t own this share as of now.

I admit I did not have time to look at all your numbers. I cannot say AHUN is undervalued still. Maybe compared to most other hotel sector shares which are highly overvalued to start with. Some trade at amazing PEs . Everybody is paying premium still expecting higher growth from this sector.

However out of the big bunch , AHUN is a solid hotel stock which paying a premium will not prove not too bad for long term. They have clear growth plans and as I recall they the sixth sense project etc will bring more profit in the future. If you can hold long term AHUN is a decent bet.

Last edited by slstock on Sat May 14, 2011 3:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

StocksWatch · 18 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 3:27 pm

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Xhora, very good post. + Rep from me as well.

In general, I am not interested in investing in Hotel stocks for sometime as most of them are massively overvalued. (Other than RENU which is not based on generating revenue from only hotel operations)

Assuming your calculations are correct (no doubt though), AHUN seems to be a better selection in the sector. But nothing can be said for short term.

seyon · 19 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 3:37 pm

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Nice analysis xhora.......

Nine months as of 31.12.2009 consolidated profit.... 508Mn and EPS for the nine months about 1.51...( 508Mn/336Mn),Further if expect 400Mn for the last quarter then PE would be in the range of 32x-35x.... Which is slightly high comparing with the Mkt PE (27X). However when u compare with REEF, MARA, STAF and others.... this is a good choice for the long term.. Further AHUN is joint partners of Six Senses hotel project which is worth of USD 35-40 Mn http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/1741285843549_521.pdf and recent BBH take over also will boost the group earnings....

I guess that most of the hotels are reflected their future earning in their value... Some of the hotels are under refurbishment ( PALM,BHR,MARA) We do not know that how long time take to break even their cost of refurbishment... So do more analysis before enter to hotel sector...

Happy Trading

Monster · 20 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 4:05 pm

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Excellent analysis xhora. Even I do not hold AHUN. But AHUN is one of the best stock in the hotel sector. +Rep from me as well for your hard work.

Quibit · 21 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 5:20 pm

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I am beginning to believe in hotel stocks. AHUN is undoubtedly one of best Srilankan hotel chains. Thanks!! + from me for your wonderful contribution and look forward in seen more contribution from you.

RockStock · 22 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 5:57 pm

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Great analysis, + rep from me as well

smallville · 23 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 6:37 pm

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Good report..

Since there was a sub division of 1:7, last quarter EPs could be calculated as per the original no of shares for the last qtr..
EPS in each quarter for last 3 qtrs = 18/48 + 152/48 + 272/(336/7) = 0.375 + 3.16 + 5.66 = 9.195
If annualised =12.26.. So accordingly other calculations follow..

Gaja · 24 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 8:00 pm

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Presently i don't have any hotel stock in my portfolio, in my personal opinion AHUN and KHL is UNDER VALUED SHARES FOR THE LONG TERM INVESTMENTS and if anyone think for short term gains don't touch it these

xhora · 25 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 8:10 pm

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smallville wrote:Good report..

Since there was a sub division of 1:7, last quarter EPs could be calculated as per the original no of shares for the last qtr..
EPS in each quarter for last 3 qtrs = 18/48 + 152/48 + 272/(336/7) = 0.375 + 3.16 + 5.66 = 9.195
If annualised =12.26.. So accordingly other calculations follow..

I don't understand the rationale behind taking 48 million shares as for the entire year. according to your calculation EPS would be (91.2/12.26) 7.44 Way bellow average.

But since I believe we always has to account for the conditions that will be prevailing in the foreseeable future because share prices are always valued for future earnings. So I think taking 336 million shares is the best approach.

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AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000)

1 AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:38 pm

wmdcf

2 AHUN Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:06 pm

saman123

3 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:25 pm

tubal

4 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:44 pm

wmdcf

5 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:47 pm

tubal

6 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:54 pm

wis

7 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:34 pm

Gaja

8 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:40 pm

wmdcf

9 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:11 pm

tubal

10 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Mon Feb 14, 2011 2:08 pm

DK

11 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:30 pm

wmdcf

12 Local tourism boom propels Aitken Spence Hotels profits Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:34 am

Quibit

13 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:48 am

Gaja

14 SPEN and AHUN Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:16 am

ShareShares

15 SPEN and AHUN Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:19 am

ShareShares

16 AHUN, is this Undervalued? Sat May 14, 2011 2:53 pm

xhora

17 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 3:15 pm

Slstock

18 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 3:27 pm

StocksWatch

19 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 3:37 pm

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20 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 4:05 pm

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21 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 5:20 pm

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22 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 5:57 pm

RockStock

23 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 6:37 pm

smallville

24 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 8:00 pm

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25 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000) Sat May 14, 2011 8:10 pm

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26 Re: AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC (AHUN.N0000)

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