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Spinning Wheel

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1Spinning Wheel Empty Spinning Wheel Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:55 am

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Expert
Expert

The Global Economic Environment looks so turbulent and negative and its not only in CSE that things look red. We too like other countries linked to the Globalized economic engine where some problem somewhere reflects in our market too.

The Global Financial crisis of 2008-2009 was triggered by the collapse of U.S Housing market which began in 2008 sending ripples in the US Economy creating the downward Spiral gripping the entire world economy by late 2008. During this time when the recession was in full force in October 2008 President Obama elected as the new president and took several measures to stop the bleeding and put the country on a path to recovery. By mid 2009 investor confidence started growing slowly

In this backdrop in May 2009 The SL Government brought the 30year long ethnic war to an end and showed signs of an economic resurgence which presented interesting opportunities for the local and Foreign Investors. As a result In 2010, the Sri Lankan stock exchange posted an increase of 95% for the year which was the highest for any stock exchange in the world. The market got over heated and due to lack of proper rules and monitoring system manipulation took center stage where few stock prices started rocketing to unimaginable levels which prompted SEC to step in with some rules and regulations. In August 2010 SEC introduced new rules and regulations to curb on excessive credit by brokers to investors and to curtail excessive price movements without any fundamental reason. Some argue that these new rules and regulations were implemented without proper consultation with all stakeholder involved. As a result market sentiments turned negative and panic selling sent the market crashing. The recovery later in December didn’t last long as other developments locally and internationally further pulled down the market. Now it feels like SEC should have let the market on its own to adjust.
War Crime allegations, Tharusman Report, Channel 4 , too many IPOs, US baring aid to Sri Lanka all in a way have had some impact in CSE. Globally the effects from Japanese Tsunami, unrest in the middle east, the US and Euro Zone debt crisis and the subsequent happenings all have made the investors to run to the Hill top.
More than £5bn was wiped off the value of three of Britain's biggest banks early last week as global financial markets took fright at the deepening crisis in the eurozone. Shares in the UK banking sector closed at their lowest level for almost two years, The FTSE 100 closed more than 90 points lower at 5752, while the Dow Jones industrial average lost more than 150 points in early trading on Wall Street. But there are some positive things happening also as an agreement reached between Germany and France on addressing Greece’s debt crisis. The Obama administration signaled it may accept a short-term increase in the U.S. debt limit only if it’s combined with a major agreement to cut the deficit. All this were immediately reflected in the stock market as index gained and gold prices dropping.

This is a spinning wheel. What goes round should come round. Patience is the only solution

Hope some good news to come soon

Good Luck

2Spinning Wheel Empty Re: Spinning Wheel Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:23 am

duke


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

In 2008 people said Sri Lanka was anyway laying at the bottom so there was no place to go down unlike countries like Japan. So we were safe. Now in Sri Lanka expectations are high but hasn't yet delivered after all this time.

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