BFL will continue to shine...!

Chicken market will be increased markedly by april and rising tourism industry.

New BFL factory will commence their production and increase BFL profit.

So BFL would be a better future investment.

Collecting BFL at Rs.400-420 would be a very good investment since it is at down ward trend.

Wait till the floods reach the chicks.
They survive mainly due to the Cold Storage Facilities they have invested in.
These are run by electricity. Old stocks are palmed off to "Maxi's"

Every SOG can do this cottage business.
Keels, CARG, Maxi's and all small time farmers are at it.
It wont be long before BFL have good competition.

hybrid_OS wrote:Wait till the floods reach the chicks.
They survive mainly due to the Cold Storage Facilities they have invested in.
These are run by electricity. Old stocks are palmed off to "Maxi's"

Every SOG can do this cottage business.
Keels, CARG, Maxi's and all small time farmers are at it.
It wont be long before BFL have good competition.

are you saying the floods have affected BFL farms?

I think he is saying flood have affected the electricity

No Mono,

The chicks are safe for the moment.
Do not sell your shares in BFL due to this posting of mine.
What I meant was that there are hidden risks in this business, not alone disease.

- Market competition (Cottage Industry / Small scale operators)
- Cost of energy for chilling
- Environmental Issues (ISO 14001)
- Food safety (ISO 22001)

I have yet to see them claim ISO certification.
The Govt. if they want can come down heavily if they want to and Johnny will not spare a feather.

hybrid_OS wrote:No Mono,

The chicks are safe for the moment.
Do not sell your shares in BFL due to this posting of mine.
What I meant was that there are hidden risks in this business, not alone disease.

- Market competition (Cottage Industry / Small scale operators)
- Cost of energy for chilling
- Environmental Issues (ISO 14001)
- Food safety (ISO 22001)

I have yet to see them claim ISO certification.
The Govt. if they want can come down heavily if they want to and Johnny will not spare a feather.

Yeah! you're spot on. These guys have massive liabilities that can pop up anytime. I'm also rather skeptical whether the premium valuation the market is giving to poultry at the moment can be maintained in the long run. And you must also remember that these are illiquid shares so the downside will be equally damaging as the up side is rewarding. and most of the retailers who sustain these share prices panic at the drop of a hat.

I posted this few from few weeks back saying the risks of poultry is quite hefty for a PE of 15-20 as some have been saying and comparatively the risks in plantation is lower. I'm not promoting plantations here but there was a reason why in the past poultry stocks had lower PE ratios.

mono wrote:

hybrid_OS wrote:No Mono,

The chicks are safe for the moment.
Do not sell your shares in BFL due to this posting of mine.
What I meant was that there are hidden risks in this business, not alone disease.

- Market competition (Cottage Industry / Small scale operators)
- Cost of energy for chilling
- Environmental Issues (ISO 14001)
- Food safety (ISO 22001)

I have yet to see them claim ISO certification.
The Govt. if they want can come down heavily if they want to and Johnny will not spare a feather.

Yeah! you're spot on. These guys have massive liabilities that can pop up anytime. I'm also rather skeptical whether the premium valuation the market is giving to poultry at the moment can be maintained in the long run. And you must also remember that these are illiquid shares so the downside will be equally damaging as the up side is rewarding. and most of the retailers who sustain these share prices panic at the drop of a hat.

my dad informed me that the municipal council health inspector warned him about having chicken related products. main reason since the Christmas time he getting complaints from some of the customers of pussallawa chicken, maxis ,etc... one of main cause of this is chicken shop owners reducing the current supply to their refrigerators to save the electricity, etc....

Competition is a good thing.. it will give birth to innovation to keep the products moving..
Also with the new project they sign with the government (10yr tax free farm), there'll be a lot of revenue coming in as they can produce more Chicks..
We'll have look into the future prospects with BFL now..

While BFL was the initiate of this Poultry run, I think GRAN & TAFL run is due to anticipation of good results that is more than we bargained for.. as with accumulated losses TAFL will be in a good position to overcome the debts if they produce over 120Mn profits, my view is; then we'll have another counter to be bullish with..

How u all think of GRAN & TAFL?

[quote="mono"]

hybrid_OS wrote:No Mono,

Yeah! you're spot on. These guys have massive liabilities that can pop up anytime. I'm also rather skeptical whether the premium valuation the market is giving to poultry at the moment can be maintained in the long run. And you must also remember that these are illiquid shares so the downside will be equally damaging as the up side is rewarding. and most of the retailers who sustain these share prices panic at the drop of a hat.

I was thinking what happned these chicks. (May be) 5-6 years back, we were struggling to sell GRAN at Rs. 10. I was sick of touching these shares. That had cost me a lot.

We have talked lot about chicken... lot more than it deserve.

smallville wrote:Competition is a good thing.. it will give birth to innovation to keep the products moving..
Also with the new project they sign with the government (10yr tax free farm), there'll be a lot of revenue coming in as they can produce more Chicks..
We'll have look into the future prospects with BFL now..

While BFL was the initiate of this Poultry run, I think GRAN & TAFL run is due to anticipation of good results that is more than we bargained for.. as with accumulated losses TAFL will be in a good position to overcome the debts if they produce over 120Mn profits, my view is; then we'll have another counter to be bullish with..

How u all think of GRAN & TAFL?

competition is good thing for the consumers but not for share holders. competition drives profits to zero.

Competition has two aspects like in the case of two sides for a coin. It can be good or vise versa. I refer two models, one we call as healthy competition which drives the players to expand and be more efficient at what they are doing. Healthy competition can be little margin loss which companies can recover through volumes while its most related to customer satisfaction / care (value added strategy to be in command with rivalries). This in long run will give exception brand image to the company and will support the company thereafter with little expense on promotions.

But in Sri Lanka we see its mainly cut throat competition which is very hard on the players, as this is mainly on price reduction which will finally kill the company or its rivalries. This kind of competition seems beneficial to the customer, but its only short / medium term. Long term the firms will exit from the industry and the industry will suffer the consequences with short supply and high prices. This kind of competition is not good for the industry and the whole economy. For examples we can take the mobile service providers battle in Sri Lanka which reduced the margins severely and question raised about the survival of firms such as Dialog, Hutch and Etisalat. Finally regulator /government had to interfere and bring the industry back on track.

Hope the listed as well as unlisted firms realize this and make their performance better. End of the day its about the survival of the fittest. Jungle LAW.

Absoluteky SDK..

companies have to consistantly think of a change, innovative concepts to keep the products attractive to consumers..
A simple value addition would even do the trick..
If not YES.. investors are at a mercy ;-)
Profits for all firms can be driven down to zero in a very unattractive industry due to "pure competition",

But looking at poultry sector, its a simple business.. a daily coonsumer product and all companies enjoy avg profits..
What I see as the specialty or the benefit to BFL in particular is the Tax free farm addition to its operations.. so the revenue generated from this directly benefits's BFL..

End of this year BFL without sharesplit value wil be more than Rs.2000 Cz of the new 50acre factory output supply starting output this April for the rising demand and the exports that are gona attract the Asians as they fear Indian and other markets for birdflue and BFL got everything under control with latest tech and team and further developments. And what u think about government intervening in poultry and given 10years tax holiday? Do u think a 10year tax holiday is a simple task without much of serious decision making? They have a vision and it is truly gona be a successful ride. In the past there was already an export to Nepal that took place and Sri Lankan government knows the success in poultry that can contribute to economy even in recession times. How much of discussions taken place in forums and still you people have no sense? And business=risk and risk is part of profit too. No risk, no business. Investors and entrepreneurs accept the challenge and make profits or just watch astray

I think this cycle will continue for the next quarter as well. Their major business, last five years has made no (slender) income. I wonder how things start going this way suddenly.

Things need to look at...
Tourist arrivals ( say 0.75 mn * 10 days average stay/ 365 days) = equial to incrase in (X) populations. Going forward, this will add to a significant no.

If Govt want to maintain upper sealing on the price - that will hit the market

TAFL & BFL are major breeder farmers. GRAN is mainly feed milling

All the guys are subject to cost pressure - coming from the maize prices... Thats key determinants of future profitability. I think we are in the high of cycle, whatever said ( or rather brain awshed) by so called experts.