Can ASI slip to 4000 soon?

Appuhamy wrote:
Ok lets imagine currently investor confidence is low. you think If ASI drops to 4000 then confidence will be improved.

I am human being who can understand the reality.

Apoooh nagh!
I didn't say anything like that!

CSE doesn't have investor confidence from 2011 February!

possible

Hi everybody,

It's after a long pause I return to this forum. I was watching the talk on and off but did not bother to post since I took a break from the markets once the 7000 mark was broken. And it proved a wise choice as it almost crashed to 5000 level since then.

So here I am, back in the forum, but not back to the market. I see that there is talk on inverter confidence. The problem with this forum is that almost 95% here are traders, most of them very very short term traders in fact. So we only hear part of the story, investors might be reading this, but I'm quite sure they care little to post.

So my point is that it is quite possible for the ASI to reach 4000. All you need is one or two big guns to draw back and the panic it creates will do the rest. That's what brought the market from 7800 to 5000. So it does not have to do much to go further down in 1000 points or so.

The economy of the country is at a very grave stage. Even if Geneva talks end without too much harm, it will do no good to the economy. The economy will continue to go down and the market cannot hold on on its own.

As mentioned, the best strategy at this point would be to hold on to cash and see what happens in the weeks to come. After all, the market can go down to 4000, but it will always bounce back to heights it once was..

Thanks..

hunter wrote:In my view, the present level of ASI (near 5000) is some sort of equilibrium level: not too high or too low. So, if it goes further down, that means the market will be attractive.

Does anyone think ASI may reach near 4000 within this month or next?
Well, I am planning for that.

I don't think 4000 is in the horizon.

RSI @ 47 is neutral, however it has come up from over sold and according to past behavior there is a chance of dropping back a bit.
MACD fast line crossing over slow in the negative territory signals further up ward tendency.
Chaikin A/D Oscillator @ 199 is a extreme case and not meaning full. I think this is due to DFN data error.
Intraday Momentum Index @ 67 is slightly below over bought. ASI may drop bit more according to this
(Again with the new system it is easy to manipulate opening & closing prices, hence IMI may not meaningful)
CMF @ 0.49 tells that market is not bearish, but this does not mean it is bullish either.
(I rely on this indicator a lot to check weather it is bearish or not)

In my opinion, chances of ASI reaching 4000 within this or next month is very remote.

monash wrote:There's no way that ASI touching 4000.. especially with new ATS system.. although overall market go down they will manipulate ASI and make sure it's green

In my opinion, even ASI go down on coming weeks.. I don't think it will go below 5300 again.. with this new system breaking 5400 also hard it seems.. past 2 weeks ASI suppose to be red.. But it hold it's edge somehow thanks to some big crossings and new system.

ya ya.. The deciding factor is f..ng system..evrydy ASI gng up at last moments by 1 or 2 share trades..

Appuhamy wrote: yes . As a day trader I have the confidence.

wowo.. A trader
hi.. Pls tell me shares you trading?

Leo_pold wrote:Hi everybody,

It's after a long pause I return to this forum. I was watching the talk on and off but did not bother to post since I took a break from the markets once the 7000 mark was broken. And it proved a wise choice as it almost crashed to 5000 level since then.

So here I am, back in the forum, but not back to the market. I see that there is talk on inverter confidence. The problem with this forum is that almost 95% here are traders, most of them very very short term traders in fact. So we only hear part of the story, investors might be reading this, but I'm quite sure they care little to post.

So my point is that it is quite possible for the ASI to reach 4000. All you need is one or two big guns to draw back and the panic it creates will do the rest. That's what brought the market from 7800 to 5000. So it does not have to do much to go further down in 1000 points or so.

The economy of the country is at a very grave stage. Even if Geneva talks end without too much harm, it will do no good to the economy. The economy will continue to go down and the market cannot hold on on its own.

As mentioned, the best strategy at this point would be to hold on to cash and see what happens in the weeks to come. After all, the market can go down to 4000, but it will always bounce back to heights it once was..

Thanks..

Nice comeback to make retailers panic.It can happen other way around as well.This new system put breaks to bull.We'll be running soon.

mark wrote:

monash wrote:There's no way that ASI touching 4000.. especially with new ATS system.. although overall market go down they will manipulate ASI and make sure it's green

In my opinion, even ASI go down on coming weeks.. I don't think it will go below 5300 again.. with this new system breaking 5400 also hard it seems.. past 2 weeks ASI suppose to be red.. But it hold it's edge somehow thanks to some big crossings and new system.

ya ya.. The deciding factor is f..ng system..evrydy ASI gng up at last moments by 1 or 2 share trades..

mainly i lost my confidence bcz of this new system,fed up..no use to me

No reason to market go-up in recent times. If Bear trend start at CSE then normally it stops at 1/2 of its bull run peak (Chk ASI trend data 2000-2009 history). So =7800/2= 3900. It is possible to come around 3500-4000. Dont know when it comes.

Jana1 wrote:No reason to market go-up in recent times. If Bear trend start at CSE then normally it stops at 1/2 of its bull run peak (Chk ASI trend data 2000-2009 history). So =7800/2= 3900. It is possible to come around 3500-4000. Dont know when it comes.

Totally different Jana 1.4000 is a day dream.Even 5000.

We see many number like 5000, 4800,4500,4000, 3000 come up in the forum. While we are at it why not 2500 or 2000 . Why do not we say these numbers.

Also any these number can be attained if CSE gets into panic or some catastrophe happens. But that is not a positive sentence ( it is negative). So what catastrophe now do we expect CSE for it to deserve to trade at war time PEs?

So the real question is : After March 31st quarter results what ASI should CSE deserve to be? What should be the market PE. Okay If we are talking about economic issues and short term implications on Sri Lanka, then what Overall earning growth/decline do we expect by Dec 2012? If so what PE does CSE deserve ? It is PE of 10 or 8 or 7 or while we are at it why not PE of 4?

Okay at ASi 4000 for example , DFCC might trade at RS 70? RCL trade at Rs 85. Spen at RS 80. KCAB at Rs45. KGAL at Rs 60. JINS at 8. DIMO at Rs 7000. How about Samp at Rs 120? Do these counters deserve these kind of drops looking at present and future earnings thanks to overall ASI drops? How much of the 250+ companies deserve overall drops of 30% from now? (After dropping over 50-60% from top. )But I agree there are still some individually overvalued counters including High caps trading at higher prices which could be corrected individually . If these overvalued counters get corrected naturally without having overall market correction then ASI natrually should be around 4800-5000 ( just a guess. I mean what happens if CARS,BUKI, SLTL gets corrected 20-30% from current prices for example. What about overvalued Hotel sector which is still tradign at future expectations)
.
If we can answers to these questions, I think, we can guesstimate the realistic ASI number we should expect. But considering the fact CSE is full of short term traders who panic at the drop of a pin, ( less long term investors) and investor confidence is down again ( I am not please that a building trend with Foreign participation and HNWIs was killed soon after the ATS7 issues came. This was introduced right in the smack of investor confidence forming after ASi went below 5000 to recover to 5500 with improving participation. Not sure who is to blame for the wrong timing to introduce a untested system?)


But then again , as people say, anything is possible at CSE as long as people make it a casino , a panic hell hole and not make the market driven on earnings and fundamentals.

Let me be frank, I have still faith in selected companies at CSE ( more oftenthan not). With present performance , does CSE derseve a drop from more than 4800 is the worst case? Ideal situation is for it to stabilize between 5000-5500.
But having said that again, I do not have faith on the forces who infuse so much negativity . If we combine out efforts with negative energy yes even ASi 2500-3000 possible. But if we are concerned about fundamental driven market then ASI 4000 is not realistic.

Okay who is responsible to make it 5500,6000 or 6400 or 5000, 4800, 4000, 3000 or even 2000?

When will ATS8 come?
Anyone?

With ATS7, they managed to stop the ASI dropping. Now market is green!!
With ATS8, the next version, ASI will be back in 7000 Range.
With ATS9, we will be the best stock market in Asia
ATS10, we will be the best in the World
ATS11 ??

let the cse pussy correct the software properly .....before market reaches 4000 or 6000 whatever

u cant view the total bid/ask.....
u cant view the statistics of a stock etc

this is a mooda waddak.....
who will like to trade with this horra system.......
this is like hangi muthhan ........not share market

sureshot wrote:let the cse pussy correct the software properly .....before market reaches 4000 or 6000 whatever

u cant view the total bid/ask.....
u cant view the statistics of a stock etc

this is a mooda waddak.....
who will like to trade with this horra system.......
this is like hangi muthhan ........not share market

umba witharai aduwata hitiye,

rishanpossitive wrote:

Jana1 wrote:No reason to market go-up in recent times. If Bear trend start at CSE then normally it stops at 1/2 of its bull run peak (Chk ASI trend data 2000-2009 history). So =7800/2= 3900. It is possible to come around 3500-4000. Dont know when it comes.

Totally different Jana 1.4000 is a day dream.Even 5000.

When I say 5000 is possible every1 criticize me when mkt was at 6500 level. I also look current mkt is sum kind of stable. But this is bear trend. Bear trend will go little deeper and then stabilize with some uptrends. For me 5300 level looks not stabilised level. I believe that s not a day dream wait and ccc.. I dont wanna criticize any1. If sum external positive factor play up then mkt could turn around (positive). Otherwise it will touch 4000 level in long run. I dont have much money to invest now. All my money got struck in da mkt.

Guys, this is not a probelm with the new system as I see it.. Its totally on broker software we use, namely DFNm, CDAX, etc.. Even broker's other platforms are not compatible with the new one..

Okie.. what's the solution? Brokers need to upgrade their software, i.e. DFN ppl have to release the new version of their DFN which is compatible to ATS7.. I'm totally sure that this has been announced hence these ppl might've developed new software version as well.. but why they dont release it??

i.e. the min fill issue we have -> ATS7 has this feature but our software done have the way it was introduced in ATS7.. its still going with the old system's criteria select min fill..

SECsux wrote:

Leo_pold wrote:Hi everybody,

It's after a long pause I return to this forum. I was watching the talk on and off but did not bother to post since I took a break from the markets once the 7000 mark was broken. And it proved a wise choice as it almost crashed to 5000 level since then.

So here I am, back in the forum, but not back to the market. I see that there is talk on inverter confidence. The problem with this forum is that almost 95% here are traders, most of them very very short term traders in fact. So we only hear part of the story, investors might be reading this, but I'm quite sure they care little to post.

So my point is that it is quite possible for the ASI to reach 4000. All you need is one or two big guns to draw back and the panic it creates will do the rest. That's what brought the market from 7800 to 5000. So it does not have to do much to go further down in 1000 points or so.

The economy of the country is at a very grave stage. Even if Geneva talks end without too much harm, it will do no good to the economy. The economy will continue to go down and the market cannot hold on on its own.

As mentioned, the best strategy at this point would be to hold on to cash and see what happens in the weeks to come. After all, the market can go down to 4000, but it will always bounce back to heights it once was..

Thanks..

Nice comeback to make retailers panic.It can happen other way around as well.This new system put breaks to bull.We'll be running soon.

Don't get me wrong buddy. I'm not trying to panic anyone. But the market has to go down a little further to make it look attractive for the people living overseas. The market correction is somewhere around 5000 mark, but only if it goes below that it will become attractive for those with enough money to invest. If someone wishes the market to be stabilize around the present level, then he is only wishing bad in the long run.

If we want the market to go back to 7000 mark, then it must go a little more down towards 4000 and look quite cheap. People always look for cheap markets to put their money in and that's how markets boom..!!

Dear slstock,

Thank you for your wise explanation. I also have similar views as mensioned in your above post. How ever I feel that market would start a run soon.

In a book by O neil there is a saying that equity market usually bottoms out before an economic crisis. The continuous foreign buying may also give us some message.

I hope the saying is true for the sake of people like me.

Totally agree with slstock. Good explanation for few negative mined people here ....

As a technical guy,i dont wanna study the market at all.i dont care big guys come or go.will go by the charts and charts alone.we can make money only if market is in uptrend or sideways in cse.i will trust my indicators although they are lagging.but should be reliable enough to make some money when trend reverses.i will hold on to my stocks until a new uptrend is established.i am in this for the longhaul.i will wait for the sharks to put money and correct the trend thats fair enough

Same here TAH

stumpy wrote:Same here TAH

most of the people/traders make a cardinal mistake of trying to study the market and they HOPE they can out think the stock market.in my early days i use to think the same.but as one mature, i am still learning how to be discipline enough not to jump the gun and follow my own system.and trust it although times it can go wrong.study chart patterns over and over.with knowledge comes trade discipline and always keep a journal of trade entries for future reference with details of why entries were made. let the market come to you and not we chase it behind and loose our hard earned money. There are trusted traders/investors here you can always pm them and ask for advise.i am sure most will help you,because they care and they want you to money as much as they want for themselves,after all we all are srilankans.but you need to decide who will help and who are with hidden agendas.

Stumpy shall we have a G2G soon ? stump u organize it this time cus me and mark always in, ill bring small anyhow, we can invite our new friend TAH as well

Agreed!
Looks like both of us speak same lingo!

stumpy wrote:Agreed!
Looks like both of us speak same lingo!

highly impressed with your stuffs. way to go bro....

FXX wrote:Stumpy shall we have a G2G soon ? stump u organize it this time cus me and mark always in, ill bring small anyhow, we can invite our new friend TAH as well

Okay!
I'll make the arrangements to have a meet up in 1st weekend of April!
That's for sure!

stumpy wrote:

FXX wrote:Stumpy shall we have a G2G soon ? stump u organize it this time cus me and mark always in, ill bring small anyhow, we can invite our new friend TAH as well

Okay!
I'll make the arrangements to have a meet up in 1st weekend of April!
That's for sure!

ill confirm u this Thursday

traderathome wrote:

wiki wrote:

hunter wrote:

mark wrote:nop..We need a very very very huge external incident to make ASI at 4000..
it cldnt be happens in short or mid term due to supply and demand forces..
btw no idea abt long term..

Spot on @Mark!
That's what I was also thinking about. Can there be a 'big bang' external event this month?
'Geneva' could be one of the possibilities: I hope not (as a Sri Lankan); but there is a possibility; it's just a feeling.

I dont think Geneva could be a possibility.. this time it is nothing other than plan for implementing its own (Gov) LLRC recommendations.
What about attack on Iran and sky rocketing of oil prices. But now Iran has agreed for discussions

Well Technically that would been testing the previous low around 4700 points first.A break below 4000 points will open up further bear channel.And also fundamentally there should be a grave uncertainty in the country, imo i dont see this happening, Geneva/Iran issues will not drive ASI below from current levels, If it were to drive the market below that would have happened long time ago. Like i explained in my chart on another thread it should take off from current levels to new highs. The momentum will take to 7000 points before slight pull back to 6400 points for a short breather until 9000 points are reached. Do not forget when large economies got a beating, ours were at full steam. with all current issues in the background ASI is able to hold at 5400 levels. That is something to ponder.I am sure USA will eventually soften its stance/position on srilanka. happy trading

One more reason, with this trading system, moving index down is bit hard. Anybody can easily manipulate the index heavy counter for an up movement other than GREG. Though we are at 5400 levels in the index, in real terms most of the shares are at below 5200 levels. This is possible as most of the index heavy counters are not with retailers. So they can maintain the index with very few counters.

traderathome wrote:

stumpy wrote:Same here TAH

most of the people/traders make a cardinal mistake of trying to study the market and they HOPE they can out think the stock market.in my early days i use to think the same.but as one mature, i am still learning how to be discipline enough not to jump the gun and follow my own system.and trust it although times it can go wrong.study chart patterns over and over.with knowledge comes trade discipline and always keep a journal of trade entries for future reference with details of why entries were made. let the market come to you and not we chase it behind and loose our hard earned money. There are trusted traders/investors here you can always pm them and ask for advise.i am sure most will help you,because they care and they want you to money as much as they want for themselves,after all we all are srilankans.but you need to decide who will help and who are with hidden agendas.

I like what you said Tradersat Home . Specially admire the last 3 lines of your post above.


There a growing breed of techies here, which is good for the forum also. If one is a short term trader or concerned about short term fluctuations technicals can be very handy to figure out when to enter and exit. So technical can be used to figure out trends forming for fundamentals or not. With technical trades we do not have to Essentially care about value shares , as when some stocks bottom out then can have small temporary runs irrespective of their earning strength( stock cycles) . Fundamental shares are more suitable for the Long term investors to figure out the value shares for investing for higher gains/dividends in the longer run. The words when and what are keys here.


So Yes, technicals, fundamentals , trends analysis, are all helpful. But should we use them individually or separately or combined depends on our goals and wants.

Hmm, on the topic of discussion , just been thinking , if ASI come to 4000 for whatever reason , what will be the price of GREG , LDEV, BLUE( if and after subdivision) . Even more what about the warrant holders? So I only hope the authorities and CSE participants act sane not to bring down market to unnecessary levels only to make some retailers completely quit/leave after loosing their life earnings and make some other foreign players and HNWI billionaires capitalizing on the situation. I also see few in the forum waiting for the opportunity as they think market will sink a lot further ( I am not saying it won;t . Please look at my previous post above)

Just talking some logical points here that all.

Also, I am not trying to mix up technicals or market cycles here as they can have different lives of their own time to time depending on market developments.