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Technical Analytical and Economic/Political Outlook - Sarath Rajapakse

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wmdcf

wmdcf
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

CBSL Did Not Tighten The Policy Rates On Friday!!!

We can breathe a sigh of relief since the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central bank decided to leave the policy rates unchanged. Perhaps we may have seen the near term top of the interest rate range and the CB may start easing credit very soon in order to achieve the proclaimed economic growth targets for 2012 of over 7.0% .
The scandalous TFC share deal has now been resolved. Sampath Bank will be paid by the broker concerned who in turn will recover the money from the sellers after returning the shares sold to the NSB in a contra deal brokered by the SEC and the CSE. However the SEC, CSE and the Government may investigate this unfortunate incident further to bring to book those involved in this scandalous deal. SAMP share may recover this week.
As Euro Zone crisis gets worse the demand for petroleum products in the West is likely to fall sharply and most countries are likely to release to the market the stockpiles of crude that they built up in anticipation of a war situation in the Middle East. Crude oil prices in the global markets are expected to take a deep dip in the coming weeks as a result. This will drastically reduce our import bill if it materializes thus improving our Balance of Payments position.
Friday’s deep drop in the market brought the RSI’s of the ASI & MPI daily charts to 18 & 17 which are among the worst oversold levels seen after the end of the war.
US market remained weak on Friday with worries about the financial sector firms affecting the investor psyche after the JP Morgan fiasco that resulted in over a US$ 2 billion trading loss for the largest financial institution in the country. (pl. see the index charts attachment).

wmdcf

wmdcf
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Market Decline Halts!!!

Market decline stopped yesterday and from the current grossly oversold levels a market turnaround is quite possible. Stabilizing Rupee and the falling oil prices would turn the economic outlook positive. There are signs that the broker provided credit problem which resulted in snowballing forced sales too may get solved finally. Monetary authorities may start easing credit restrictions by mid 2012 after keeping the present policy stance steady for about a month or so. Corporate results reaching the market are quite good and in most cases much better than expected. All in all the prospects are good for a sustained market turnaround.
Yesterday a delegation led by the opposition leader was to meet H.E. the President at Temple Trees perhaps over a cup of coffee.
Monday’s cautious market brought the RSI’s of the ASI & MPI daily charts to 20 & 17 which are still among the worst oversold levels seen since the end of the war.
US market dropped sharply on Monday on Eurozone worries and the JP Morgan debacle.

yellow knife


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

There will be ups and downs...thnax for info

wmdcf

wmdcf
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Market Decline Halted For Sure!!!

Market decline has stopped for sure as forced sales have petered away. We are still waiting to see a more convincing and a significant upmove to satisfy ourselves that a turnaround has taken place. For that to happen the ASI should go above 5390 and the MPI need to rise above 4830. We have hope that this would happen early next week as the CSBA is expected to meet the SEC on Friday to discuss some major issues affecting the market. They have already had discussions with the CSE on these issues and claim that those talks were successful.

Tuesday’s marginal upmove in the market brought the RSI’s of the ASI & MPI daily charts to 22 & 19 which are still very much at oversold levels.

US market fell through its critical support levels yesterday and a sharper fall is most likely to happen pretty soon.

wmdcf

wmdcf
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Market Turns Around!!!

Market turned around yesterday with both indices registering impressive gains. A BUY signal popped up on our daily MPI chart and a similar signal is likely to appear on our ASI daily chart today. For a full confirmation of the turnaround the ASI should go above 5390 and the MPI need to rise above 4830 as we mentioned yesterday. We expect this to happen early next week as more good news reaches the market.

Yesterday at the Treasury bill auction the three month bill yields edged lower signaling the beginning of the topping out of the interest rates. This is good news for the market. With the TWOD case coming up next week there is likely to be some brisk market activity during the next few days. GREG too may come up with some news on the plans for investing the proceeds from the sale of ERL(BVI), recently released by the exchange control authorities.
Corporate results flowing into the market are very impressive and would prompt those who buy on fundamentals to return to the market. Once again it is time for the bargain hunters to grab the bargains still available in abundance.

Yesterday’s encouraging upmove in the market sent the RSI’s of the ASI & MPI daily charts to 37 & 35, just above the oversold threshold.

US market continues to decline. A sharper fall in the coming days seems to be imminent.

wmdcf

wmdcf
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Market Continues To Slide Down For No Rhyme Or Reason!!!

Market continues to slide down for no rhyme or reason. Practically all the stocks, blue chips as well as popular volatile stocks are grossly oversold and undervalued. Interest rates are showing signs of coming down as evidenced by the downward slide in Treasury bill yields at the last two auctions. CBSL did not raise their policy rates at their last monetary policy committee meeting and they are most likely to start easing rates from either June or July. Corporate results for the last financial year reaching the market currently are very encouraging. However the market remains sluggish with indices sliding down slowly on surprisingly low daily turnovers. What really ails the market is the absence of retailer interest. Big players coming and executing a crossing here and there is not going to change the depressed mood in the market. In fact it was one such disastrous and scandalous crossing that worsened the market situation recently and triggered an unwise knee jerk reaction from the regulators.

It is time for the brokers to move out of their cozy air conditioned offices and luxury cubicles and hit the streets looking for new retailers with a speculative spirit. It is not that hard since the market penetration is very low in Sri Lanka. We have very much less than 0.5% of the eligible (over 18’s) population participating in stock market trading as against 30% to 70% in developed country markets. Brokers should not depend on the CSE and the SEC to do all the promotional work, a strategy which has proved to be ineffective in the past. Instead they should lobby to get a bigger share of the commission charged from market players for use in aggressive marketing campaigns and new branch openings.

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