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3 Jumps Index pattern !

+2
soileconomy
Chinwi
6 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

13 Jumps Index pattern ! Empty 3 Jumps Index pattern ! Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:28 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

This is a simple idea about a market Index pattern which was popular many years ago.
I just wanted to place here without going deeper into modern days technical analysis.

Do not take the graph I draw here seriously.

Many years ago, when there were no computers, we saw how they plotted price graphs on the 1mm graph sheets pasted on the walls around the broker houses.

In an upward movement or in a down trend, we were told to monitor 3 wave cycle to get an idea about a trend change.

Even now I think they call it the 'Elliott wave'.
Those days, 3 cycle study very popular because it was very easy to produce and study manually.

They expected a reversal of the major trend when the price index competes 3 cycles. Actually this is the 5 movements in the Elliott . To make it simple in the manually plotted paper we took it as 3 waves / jumps.

When I see the ASI from the start of the current trend I feel now we are reaching to the end of 3rd jump.
Any comment?


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23 Jumps Index pattern ! Empty Re: 3 Jumps Index pattern ! Sat Jun 30, 2012 4:53 am

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

If we look at long run. this will be an opportunity.

33 Jumps Index pattern ! Empty Re: 3 Jumps Index pattern ! Sat Jun 30, 2012 1:58 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

Chinwi, the first two cycles are clear with two sharp declines but the third I think is yet to complete its end? Any way if it completes shortly(I hope so) it may mark the beggining of an uptrend. Thank you for educating us.

43 Jumps Index pattern ! Empty Re: 3 Jumps Index pattern ! Sun Jul 01, 2012 12:33 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

K.Haputantri wrote:Chinwi, the first two cycles are clear with two sharp declines but the third I think is yet to complete its end? Any way if it completes shortly(I hope so) it may mark the beggining of an uptrend. Thank you for educating us.

Im also having the same feeling. The third one is in halfway. Lets hope it completes shortly.

53 Jumps Index pattern ! Empty Re: 3 Jumps Index pattern ! Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:59 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

You simply jumped two cycle during your second cycle. You can make 2 cycles in 2nd jump. I read several things. But I never heard this before. Three cycle is a indicator....

63 Jumps Index pattern ! Empty Re: 3 Jumps Index pattern ! Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:39 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

Interesting!

Chinwi, Do you think the duration of the cycles should be the same?

STUMPY!, if you see this, I am sure you'll like to make some comments. I remember you were very keen on this idea.

73 Jumps Index pattern ! Empty Re: 3 Jumps Index pattern ! Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:11 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

hunter wrote:Interesting!

Chinwi, Do you think the duration of the cycles should be the same?


No.
You have to have well noticeable decline and recovery points to consider it as an end and start of the next wave. Duration can differ. Sometimes you may find smaller such cycles for mini trends inside the bigger wave.

I think this is an indicator of human behavior . After a fall there will be always an effort and hopes to recover. After three such failed attempts it is natural to gather enough momentum or energy to make a recovery and start upward journey. Same for the other way.

Another simple -thumb- rule was (is) 30% decline or uprising. We saw many experienced investors always gathered to buy when the index declined below 30% from the peak. Veterans advised us about this 30% rule 25-30 years ago.





83 Jumps Index pattern ! Empty Re: 3 Jumps Index pattern ! Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:23 pm

stumpy

stumpy
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

hunter wrote:Interesting!

Chinwi, Do you think the duration of the cycles should be the same?

STUMPY!, if you see this, I am sure you'll like to make some comments. I remember you were very keen on this idea.

I saved this thread to write a detailed answer. Later on, I decided to write a PM to Chinwi Smile

I am expecting an A-B-C pattern after this 5th Wave of EWT. At least it'll take two n half months to form the bottom! After that we can fly again Very Happy

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