Excited but Why????

Excited but Why????
It seems that all our speculators are back from a long holiday. All are so excited. All are talking about Buying this, Buying that ,Holding this &collecting that … People all this is pure Bull sh**. (That’s what I personally believe)
Even if people are active again due the market activity of last few days… think again.. What are the stocks that went up???? What was the quantity traded???
Its again a penny rally… I am 100% sure that not even one single HNWI is linked to those rallies. For most of the gaining penny shares daily turnover did not exceed the Rs 200 million mark.
To all the excited people, I got a simple question. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? Has the economic condition of the country improved????
Is the Inflation coming down???
What about the Interest rates, is it coming down????
Did the government or the government policy regard to economy changed???
Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports?????
Or were these stocks under valued????
For me the answers would be NO for all of the above. So we are excited, BUT WHY??????

We Sri Lankans have a very short memory and that's a known fact. Manipulators who are adamant of making a fast buck make use of this drawback.

investor1984 wrote:
To all the excited people, I got a simple question. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? Has the economic condition of the country improved????
Is the Inflation coming down???
What about the Interest rates, is it coming down????
Did the government or the government policy regard to economy changed???
Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports?????
Or were these stocks under valued????
For me the answers would be NO for all of the above. So we are excited, BUT WHY??????

Two valid reasons I assume;

1) After the ASI bottomed to 4700-4800 range many ppl believed its the bottom.. so started collecting.. Then the market was going up-down-down-up-up-up-down like varied patterns creating opportunities for short term trading.. When the market was hanging like this some stocks created technically viable patterns too..

3) The former SEC head was announced resigning.. A New SEC head was in anticipation.. Then a name was proposed and a lot of hype was created.. Some ppl made sure the latest entrant shows miracles in market hence started going up.. Didn't matter whether its fundas or specs or pennies going up, as long as the market was up.. All were happy

Apart from these all of the other questions will have the answer "No"

investor1984 wrote:Excited but Why????
It seems that all our speculators are back from a long holiday. All are so excited. All are talking about Buying this, Buying that ,Holding this &collecting that … People all this is pure Bull sh**. (That’s what I personally believe)
Even if people are active again due the market activity of last few days… think again.. What are the stocks that went up???? What was the quantity traded???
Its again a penny rally… I am 100% sure that not even one single HNWI is linked to those rallies. For most of the gaining penny shares daily turnover did not exceed the Rs 200 million mark.
To all the excited people, I got a simple question. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? Has the economic condition of the country improved????
Is the Inflation coming down???
What about the Interest rates, is it coming down????
Did the government or the government policy regard to economy changed???
Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports?????
Or were these stocks under valued????
For me the answers would be NO for all of the above. So we are excited, BUT WHY??????

1. This rally already broke Major bear market trend line and the 200 days SMA, which couldn't break any bear market rallies since 2011 February. Therefore for me this is a clear trend reversal (I'm not an expert).

2. I think we have reached the top of interest rates hike and exchange rate also stabilize at 130 level, We can hope interest rates reduce in near future.

3.Why any company have not release great financial reports ??,
Ex: SAMP,RICH,BALA,RENU,LFIN...etc already released good financial reports.

4.Stile there are lot of stocks trading below 10 PE which are attractive.

5.As I read (Not experienced), a Bear market can ends with recession is stile there but with the hope of recession ends.

Guys if you analyse the market for last three years ASI 4700-4800 was not the bottom. This is the figure market was when Malik Cadre became DG. Market rapidly went up from there until he got exited and brought a stupid credit rule. That was the begining of the down fall.

I am very happy Now people talk about economic factors rather than gossip
and non economic factors
Earlier( Before Dr G) people have given priority for non economic factors
That is why decisions of Mrs S effected market adversely
Undue place enjoyed by. SL stock market(world's Best market] due to manipulation also effected this situation .
Now every thin is seems to be OK
ALL OF US SHOULD ACT LIKE "ECONOMIC MEN"
Pl try to educate others

Interesting points to read & balance.
Perhaps, it is technical vs economic indicators vs human factors.
Present day outcome could be combinations of all recipes.

smallville-
May I request you to expand your valid reason no.1
Does it mean the hanging pattern in the past create current positive technical pattern?

investor1984 wrote:Excited but Why????
It seems that all our speculators are back from a long holiday. All are so excited. All are talking about Buying this, Buying that ,Holding this &collecting that … People all this is pure Bull sh**. (That’s what I personally believe)
Even if people are active again due the market activity of last few days… think again.. What are the stocks that went up???? What was the quantity traded???
Its again a penny rally… I am 100% sure that not even one single HNWI is linked to those rallies. For most of the gaining penny shares daily turnover did not exceed the Rs 200 million mark.
To all the excited people, I got a simple question. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? Has the economic condition of the country improved????
Is the Inflation coming down???
What about the Interest rates, is it coming down????
Did the government or the government policy regard to economy changed???
Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports?????
Or were these stocks under valued????
For me the answers would be NO for all of the above. So we are excited, BUT WHY??????

There are many reasons to be excited ! In june this year, the ASPI index dipped to around 4800 i think.since then, the market index has got up approx 15 % in 3 months. Now, in June at the height of doom and gloom if you had sold and or invested at 15 % FD, you have every reason to not feel excited. some shares have gone up 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent since then. not only penny stocks but many fundamentally sound good shares for eg, JKH (165-200), Sampath (150-200), DFCC (100-120), NDB (100-120), CINV (70-90), GUAR (150-180), RICH (6.20-9), DIMO (580-700), UML (70-95), CFLB (22-38) RENU (190-250), DIST (120-140). If in Cash (FD), the annualized return in the last 3 months is approx 4 % in comparison. So investors who held on or bought in may/june have every reason to be excited. I shall try to answer your questions point by point to clarrify some of your concerns.
1. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? In modern markets there does not have to be any speciftic reason for a rally. In greece for eg year todate, market is still up 1.9 %. now these chaps have some serious problems. now, shouldnt their market have been down this year.? In pakistan, the market is up 34.4 % year todate. bombs are going off every day and boy dont they have some serious economic problems. a list of 2012 stock market performance year to date from Yardeni Research Inc (www.yardeni.com) dated 7th sept 2012 is as follows :
(all in percentages)
World Index : + 1.5
Europe : + 8.4
Emerging Markets : + 5.8
S & P 500 : + 14.3
France : + 11.4
Germany : + 22.3
Sweden : + 7.6
Switzerland : + 10.1
UK : + 4.0
Greece : + 1.9
Ireland : + 12.4
Spain : minus 7.1
Italy : + 6.8
Brazil : + 1.8
China : 0
India : + 14.4
Russia : + 6.5
Indonesia : + 8.4
Malaysia : +6.1
Pakistan : + 34.4
Korea : + 5.7
Taiwan : + 5.0
Singapore : + 13.8
Philliphines : + 18.6

As you will observe, except for Spain (and Sri-Lanka !), all other markets are up so far in 2012. many of these countries have worse problems than us. In India, the Indian Rupee has devalued 12 % year todate. In some of countries in the Eurozone, Interest rates have doubled from 3 to 6 %. China is experiencing a hard landing, Eurozone Debt crisis, In America Fiscal Cliff, Housing sector problems, record Unemployment worse drought in history. Hope your getting the picture !
2. Has the economic condition of the country improved???? - Just because the economic condition of the country may not have improved in the short term, it does not mean that the Stock Market should be down or vice versa. There are plenty of companies that will improve their performance despite the countries economic condition. Still, the GDP growth is estimated at 7 % and by chance if they discover Oil and Gas next year, Then all bets are off !
3. Is the Inflation coming down???- Actually, inflation is a friend of Stocks and a enemy of Cash (FD). If you can identify stocks trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, then inflation hedges you against rising prices, as (fixed) assets values will rise with inflation . The interest you get from a Fixed Income instrument reduces your purchasing power in inflationary times. This is not my personel opinion but that of Warren Buffet.
4. What about the Interest rates, is it coming down???? - Time will tell ! but high interest rates do not neccessarily benefit the Cash Holder due to reduction in Purchasing Power.
5. the government or the government policy regard to economy changed??? What are the changes you contemplate ? what should they do ? What do you want them to do ? without knowing the answers to these questions, i cannot answer your question accurately.
6. Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports????? - many will and many wont. our job is to identify companies that will release good / great financial reports in the future and buy when these companies stock prices are down like the opportunity we got in in june this year.
7. Or were these stocks under valued???? Depends on your definition of value. For me, if i can find a stock trading at 3,4,5 time P/E, Trading at a discount to its intrinsic NAV (after marking to market the true value of its assets) and gives a reasonable dividend yield of 5-7 %, has a good management, has a stable business etc it is undervalued. even if 2-3 of the above criteria are met, it is undervalued. sometimes companies trading at 5-10 times earnings with some future hidden potential may be undervalued. As i have mentioned before, valuation depends on your opportunity cost. In june this year, many companies exhibited these numerical characteristics.

I hope i have been able to answer your queries to your satisfaction.

Fantastic.

The Alchemist wrote:
There are many reasons to be excited ! In june this year, the ASPI index dipped to around 4800 i think.since then, the market index has got up approx 15 % in 3 months. Now, in June at the height of doom and gloom if you had sold and or invested at 15 % FD, you have every reason to not feel excited. some shares have gone up 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent since then. not only penny stocks but many fundamentally sound good shares for eg, JKH (165-200), Sampath (150-200), DFCC (100-120), NDB (100-120), CINV (70-90), GUAR (150-180), RICH (6.20-9), DIMO (580-700), UML (70-95), CFLB (22-38) RENU (190-250), DIST (120-140). If in Cash (FD), the annualized return in the last 3 months is approx 4 % in comparison. So investors who held on or bought in may/june have every reason to be excited. I shall try to answer your questions point by point to clarrify some of your concerns.
1. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? In modern markets there does not have to be any speciftic reason for a rally. In greece for eg year todate, market is still up 1.9 %. now these chaps have some serious problems. now, shouldnt their market have been down this year.? In pakistan, the market is up 34.4 % year todate. bombs are going off every day and boy dont they have some serious economic problems. a list of 2012 stock market performance year to date from Yardeni Research Inc (www.yardeni.com) dated 7th sept 2012 is as follows :
(all in percentages)
World Index : + 1.5
Europe : + 8.4
Emerging Markets : + 5.8
S & P 500 : + 14.3
France : + 11.4
Germany : + 22.3
Sweden : + 7.6
Switzerland : + 10.1
UK : + 4.0
Greece : + 1.9
Ireland : + 12.4
Spain : minus 7.1
Italy : + 6.8
Brazil : + 1.8
China : 0
India : + 14.4
Russia : + 6.5
Indonesia : + 8.4
Malaysia : +6.1
Pakistan : + 34.4
Korea : + 5.7
Taiwan : + 5.0
Singapore : + 13.8
Philliphines : + 18.6

As you will observe, except for Spain (and Sri-Lanka !), all other markets are up so far in 2012. many of these countries have worse problems than us. In India, the Indian Rupee has devalued 12 % year todate. In some of countries in the Eurozone, Interest rates have doubled from 3 to 6 %. China is experiencing a hard landing, Eurozone Debt crisis, In America Fiscal Cliff, Housing sector problems, record Unemployment worse drought in history. Hope your getting the picture !
2. Has the economic condition of the country improved???? - Just because the economic condition of the country may not have improved in the short term, it does not mean that the Stock Market should be down or vice versa. There are plenty of companies that will improve their performance despite the countries economic condition. Still, the GDP growth is estimated at 7 % and by chance if they discover Oil and Gas next year, Then all bets are off !
3. Is the Inflation coming down???- Actually, inflation is a friend of Stocks and a enemy of Cash (FD). If you can identify stocks trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, then inflation hedges you against rising prices, as (fixed) assets values will rise with inflation . The interest you get from a Fixed Income instrument reduces your purchasing power in inflationary times. This is not my personel opinion but that of Warren Buffet.
4. What about the Interest rates, is it coming down???? - Time will tell ! but high interest rates do not neccessarily benefit the Cash Holder due to reduction in Purchasing Power.
5. the government or the government policy regard to economy changed??? What are the changes you contemplate ? what should they do ? What do you want them to do ? without knowing the answers to these questions, i cannot answer your question accurately.
6. Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports????? - many will and many wont. our job is to identify companies that will release good / great financial reports in the future and buy when these companies stock prices are down like the opportunity we got in in june this year.
7. Or were these stocks under valued???? Depends on your definition of value. For me, if i can find a stock trading at 3,4,5 time P/E, Trading at a discount to its intrinsic NAV (after marking to market the true value of its assets) and gives a reasonable dividend yield of 5-7 %, has a good management, has a stable business etc it is undervalued. even if 2-3 of the above criteria are met, it is undervalued. sometimes companies trading at 5-10 times earnings with some future hidden potential may be undervalued. As i have mentioned before, valuation depends on your opportunity cost. In june this year, many companies exhibited these numerical characteristics.

I hope i have been able to answer your queries to your satisfaction.

Informative & solid arguments given for reading over & again.
Uncertainties prevail everywhere, even in lives themselves.

Key factors indicated above may change at anytime that may bring direct or indirect impact into capital market. Without all kind of sophisticated analysis I feel that strong foundation laid so far, well supports the bricks placing on top of it day by day.

The Alchemist wrote:

investor1984 wrote:Excited but Why????
It seems that all our speculators are back from a long holiday. All are so excited. All are talking about Buying this, Buying that ,Holding this &collecting that … People all this is pure Bull sh**. (That’s what I personally believe)
Even if people are active again due the market activity of last few days… think again.. What are the stocks that went up???? What was the quantity traded???
Its again a penny rally… I am 100% sure that not even one single HNWI is linked to those rallies. For most of the gaining penny shares daily turnover did not exceed the Rs 200 million mark.
To all the excited people, I got a simple question. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? Has the economic condition of the country improved????
Is the Inflation coming down???
What about the Interest rates, is it coming down????
Did the government or the government policy regard to economy changed???
Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports?????
Or were these stocks under valued????
For me the answers would be NO for all of the above. So we are excited, BUT WHY??????

There are many reasons to be excited ! In june this year, the ASPI index dipped to around 4800 i think.since then, the market index has got up approx 15 % in 3 months. Now, in June at the height of doom and gloom if you had sold and or invested at 15 % FD, you have every reason to not feel excited. some shares have gone up 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent since then. not only penny stocks but many fundamentally sound good shares for eg, JKH (165-200), Sampath (150-200), DFCC (100-120), NDB (100-120), CINV (70-90), GUAR (150-180), RICH (6.20-9), DIMO (580-700), UML (70-95), CFLB (22-38) RENU (190-250), DIST (120-140). If in Cash (FD), the annualized return in the last 3 months is approx 4 % in comparison. So investors who held on or bought in may/june have every reason to be excited. I shall try to answer your questions point by point to clarrify some of your concerns.
1. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? In modern markets there does not have to be any speciftic reason for a rally. In greece for eg year todate, market is still up 1.9 %. now these chaps have some serious problems. now, shouldnt their market have been down this year.? In pakistan, the market is up 34.4 % year todate. bombs are going off every day and boy dont they have some serious economic problems. a list of 2012 stock market performance year to date from Yardeni Research Inc (www.yardeni.com) dated 7th sept 2012 is as follows :
(all in percentages)
World Index : + 1.5
Europe : + 8.4
Emerging Markets : + 5.8
S & P 500 : + 14.3
France : + 11.4
Germany : + 22.3
Sweden : + 7.6
Switzerland : + 10.1
UK : + 4.0
Greece : + 1.9
Ireland : + 12.4
Spain : minus 7.1
Italy : + 6.8
Brazil : + 1.8
China : 0
India : + 14.4
Russia : + 6.5
Indonesia : + 8.4
Malaysia : +6.1
Pakistan : + 34.4
Korea : + 5.7
Taiwan : + 5.0
Singapore : + 13.8
Philliphines : + 18.6

As you will observe, except for Spain (and Sri-Lanka !), all other markets are up so far in 2012. many of these countries have worse problems than us. In India, the Indian Rupee has devalued 12 % year todate. In some of countries in the Eurozone, Interest rates have doubled from 3 to 6 %. China is experiencing a hard landing, Eurozone Debt crisis, In America Fiscal Cliff, Housing sector problems, record Unemployment worse drought in history. Hope your getting the picture !
2. Has the economic condition of the country improved???? - Just because the economic condition of the country may not have improved in the short term, it does not mean that the Stock Market should be down or vice versa. There are plenty of companies that will improve their performance despite the countries economic condition. Still, the GDP growth is estimated at 7 % and by chance if they discover Oil and Gas next year, Then all bets are off !
3. Is the Inflation coming down???- Actually, inflation is a friend of Stocks and a enemy of Cash (FD). If you can identify stocks trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, then inflation hedges you against rising prices, as (fixed) assets values will rise with inflation . The interest you get from a Fixed Income instrument reduces your purchasing power in inflationary times. This is not my personel opinion but that of Warren Buffet.
4. What about the Interest rates, is it coming down???? - Time will tell ! but high interest rates do not neccessarily benefit the Cash Holder due to reduction in Purchasing Power.
5. the government or the government policy regard to economy changed??? What are the changes you contemplate ? what should they do ? What do you want them to do ? without knowing the answers to these questions, i cannot answer your question accurately.
6. Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports????? - many will and many wont. our job is to identify companies that will release good / great financial reports in the future and buy when these companies stock prices are down like the opportunity we got in in june this year.
7. Or were these stocks under valued???? Depends on your definition of value. For me, if i can find a stock trading at 3,4,5 time P/E, Trading at a discount to its intrinsic NAV (after marking to market the true value of its assets) and gives a reasonable dividend yield of 5-7 %, has a good management, has a stable business etc it is undervalued. even if 2-3 of the above criteria are met, it is undervalued. sometimes companies trading at 5-10 times earnings with some future hidden potential may be undervalued. As i have mentioned before, valuation depends on your opportunity cost. In june this year, many companies exhibited these numerical characteristics.

I hope i have been able to answer your queries to your satisfaction.

Great... So we got every reason to be excited and invest again... Right??? but still... having all these positive factors ( according to you ) , WHY THE HELL DID OUR MARKET CRASHED????

My point is that Economic condition of the country did not improved ( it is worsening , my personal view ) So how come the market bounce back in a worse environment where it crashed???????

Greece and Europe .... Cmon buddy, their markets recover bcoz of the announcements of stimulus packages & announced spending cuts. What about Sri Lanka?????

Pakistan.. Hell yeah.. another south Asian country

Modern markets does not react to economic condition??? that is the first time i heard that... May be a new theory .. Or yes Manipulation i guess u meant.

Inflation... I thought Inflation is a indicator about where Economy is heading... My bad

Government Policy??? Ok... How about reducing of expenditure??? Reducing of the Cabinet??? How about stopping stopping the polls that we have on every other month.... Corruption??? ( this is getting political

Quote - " many will release good results , many wont " ... prophesy??? Will many release good results under worsening global & domestic economic condition????

Some stocks are undervalued???? Example please... If there are any undervalued stocks why the hell people wait till economic downturn??? Why the hell foreign funds left????

Could you please answer these too???

Investor1984,

If you wait till everythign falls into place you would have missed some buses.

Just know that after a steep fall, it does not take all micro/macro factors to be positive to start the 1st leg of the bull trend. It start moving in anticipation of future news and sign of some stability after volatility. Stock market moves on hope.

Why did it crash. Am not sure it was crash per say but it was more an over-reaction by people at CSE who are very emotional, running out of patience ( like Bangladesh and Pakistan) combined with parties ( am not talking political here though it can be anyone who wants negativity ) who will capitalize to make negativity more negative than reality.

Just note one day when it turn bull, positivity will be over positivity and some will ask question the opposite you are asking.


Just understand certain realities and invest when the time is right is you feel right. If you don;t it your money, your time, your energy your worry.

All I can say is that if someone followed the below they would have earned at least in short term now.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all


Market will always find a way to move the way it wan't. Politics, manipulation, controversy call it what you want.

One thing I can say is that though we have issues in Sri Lanka it is not bad as it shows.

Alchemist, hats off to you. What an answer.

The point is, asking questions is the easiest in the world. But unless someone gets the maturity to find the answers themselves with focus and perseverance, they will not learn.

It is like preparing for the exam with a guide book with questions and answers, without studying the text book. Can pass the exam, but no substance...!!

investor1984 wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:

investor1984 wrote:Excited but Why????
It seems that all our speculators are back from a long holiday. All are so excited. All are talking about Buying this, Buying that ,Holding this &collecting that … People all this is pure Bull sh**. (That’s what I personally believe)
Even if people are active again due the market activity of last few days… think again.. What are the stocks that went up???? What was the quantity traded???
Its again a penny rally… I am 100% sure that not even one single HNWI is linked to those rallies. For most of the gaining penny shares daily turnover did not exceed the Rs 200 million mark.
To all the excited people, I got a simple question. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? Has the economic condition of the country improved????
Is the Inflation coming down???
What about the Interest rates, is it coming down????
Did the government or the government policy regard to economy changed???
Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports?????
Or were these stocks under valued????
For me the answers would be NO for all of the above. So we are excited, BUT WHY??????

There are many reasons to be excited ! In june this year, the ASPI index dipped to around 4800 i think.since then, the market index has got up approx 15 % in 3 months. Now, in June at the height of doom and gloom if you had sold and or invested at 15 % FD, you have every reason to not feel excited. some shares have gone up 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent since then. not only penny stocks but many fundamentally sound good shares for eg, JKH (165-200), Sampath (150-200), DFCC (100-120), NDB (100-120), CINV (70-90), GUAR (150-180), RICH (6.20-9), DIMO (580-700), UML (70-95), CFLB (22-38) RENU (190-250), DIST (120-140). If in Cash (FD), the annualized return in the last 3 months is approx 4 % in comparison. So investors who held on or bought in may/june have every reason to be excited. I shall try to answer your questions point by point to clarrify some of your concerns.
1. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? In modern markets there does not have to be any speciftic reason for a rally. In greece for eg year todate, market is still up 1.9 %. now these chaps have some serious problems. now, shouldnt their market have been down this year.? In pakistan, the market is up 34.4 % year todate. bombs are going off every day and boy dont they have some serious economic problems. a list of 2012 stock market performance year to date from Yardeni Research Inc (www.yardeni.com) dated 7th sept 2012 is as follows :
(all in percentages)
World Index : + 1.5
Europe : + 8.4
Emerging Markets : + 5.8
S & P 500 : + 14.3
France : + 11.4
Germany : + 22.3
Sweden : + 7.6
Switzerland : + 10.1
UK : + 4.0
Greece : + 1.9
Ireland : + 12.4
Spain : minus 7.1
Italy : + 6.8
Brazil : + 1.8
China : 0
India : + 14.4
Russia : + 6.5
Indonesia : + 8.4
Malaysia : +6.1
Pakistan : + 34.4
Korea : + 5.7
Taiwan : + 5.0
Singapore : + 13.8
Philliphines : + 18.6

As you will observe, except for Spain (and Sri-Lanka !), all other markets are up so far in 2012. many of these countries have worse problems than us. In India, the Indian Rupee has devalued 12 % year todate. In some of countries in the Eurozone, Interest rates have doubled from 3 to 6 %. China is experiencing a hard landing, Eurozone Debt crisis, In America Fiscal Cliff, Housing sector problems, record Unemployment worse drought in history. Hope your getting the picture !
2. Has the economic condition of the country improved???? - Just because the economic condition of the country may not have improved in the short term, it does not mean that the Stock Market should be down or vice versa. There are plenty of companies that will improve their performance despite the countries economic condition. Still, the GDP growth is estimated at 7 % and by chance if they discover Oil and Gas next year, Then all bets are off !
3. Is the Inflation coming down???- Actually, inflation is a friend of Stocks and a enemy of Cash (FD). If you can identify stocks trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, then inflation hedges you against rising prices, as (fixed) assets values will rise with inflation . The interest you get from a Fixed Income instrument reduces your purchasing power in inflationary times. This is not my personel opinion but that of Warren Buffet.
4. What about the Interest rates, is it coming down???? - Time will tell ! but high interest rates do not neccessarily benefit the Cash Holder due to reduction in Purchasing Power.
5. the government or the government policy regard to economy changed??? What are the changes you contemplate ? what should they do ? What do you want them to do ? without knowing the answers to these questions, i cannot answer your question accurately.
6. Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports????? - many will and many wont. our job is to identify companies that will release good / great financial reports in the future and buy when these companies stock prices are down like the opportunity we got in in june this year.
7. Or were these stocks under valued???? Depends on your definition of value. For me, if i can find a stock trading at 3,4,5 time P/E, Trading at a discount to its intrinsic NAV (after marking to market the true value of its assets) and gives a reasonable dividend yield of 5-7 %, has a good management, has a stable business etc it is undervalued. even if 2-3 of the above criteria are met, it is undervalued. sometimes companies trading at 5-10 times earnings with some future hidden potential may be undervalued. As i have mentioned before, valuation depends on your opportunity cost. In june this year, many companies exhibited these numerical characteristics.

I hope i have been able to answer your queries to your satisfaction.

Great... So we got every reason to be excited and invest again... Right??? but still... having all these positive factors ( according to you ) , WHY THE HELL DID OUR MARKET CRASHED????

My point is that Economic condition of the country did not improved ( it is worsening , my personal view ) So how come the market bounce back in a worse environment where it crashed???????

Greece and Europe .... Cmon buddy, their markets recover bcoz of the announcements of stimulus packages & announced spending cuts. What about Sri Lanka?????

Pakistan.. Hell yeah.. another south Asian country

Modern markets does not react to economic condition??? that is the first time i heard that... May be a new theory .. Or yes Manipulation i guess u meant.

Inflation... I thought Inflation is a indicator about where Economy is heading... My bad

Government Policy??? Ok... How about reducing of expenditure??? Reducing of the Cabinet??? How about stopping stopping the polls that we have on every other month.... Corruption??? ( this is getting political

Quote - " many will release good results , many wont " ... prophesy??? Will many release good results under worsening global & domestic economic condition????

Some stocks are undervalued???? Example please... If there are any undervalued stocks why the hell people wait till economic downturn??? Why the hell foreign funds left????

Could you please answer these too???

Investor1984
By the tone of your reply, I got the impression that you seem to be one angry, bitter man who may have got burnt in the market in the past. So i looked up your past posts and was surprised to see that almost all your past posts have 3 recurring themes in them, i.e. crap, bullshit and manipulation. In one of your posts, you admitted that you had got burnt in the market. I am really sorry to hear this. In May this year, I had posted a good article namely "40 lessons to find strength in hard times". search in the forum for this article and please read it.

I was also surprised by a article you wrote on 18th sept 2011 which i think encapsulates your investment strategy. this is reproduced below for your easy reference

quote
There are good research teams in our brokering houses, some are highly qualified, but the trend is that investment advisers dont recommend what researchers recommend , brokers only recommend what they collect and what are hot on a given day.. brokers are more speculative these days that some are more speculative than average retailers. So naturally customers ( ie u & me ) will more or less believe what broker says and will ignore the research reports , as we are dealing with brokers and we more or less trust broker rather than the unseen researcher. Sometimes the investment advisers dont know anything about what researchers recommend> we are dealing in market where no one give a damn about technicals or fundamentals , Only rumors and manipulation matters in this market , so best thing to do to WIN in this market is to get network with others, to be informed about the rumor befor it turn in to the news , get to know about the stock which is goin to be manipulated next rather than knowing it after it get manipulated , yes its highly unethical patter of trading , yet thats what we must do to survive in CSE . this is what i believe ...."
unquote

Just a final piece of advise. You will find it hard to win consistently with the above strategy or this way of thinking.
Now, I have two choices. one, to try to further clarrify your new queries or to relax and have a good drink this sunday evening. I think i'll choose the latter !
Good luck in your trading activities

The Alchemist wrote:

investor1984 wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:

investor1984 wrote:Excited but Why????
It seems that all our speculators are back from a long holiday. All are so excited. All are talking about Buying this, Buying that ,Holding this &collecting that … People all this is pure Bull sh**. (That’s what I personally believe)
Even if people are active again due the market activity of last few days… think again.. What are the stocks that went up???? What was the quantity traded???
Its again a penny rally… I am 100% sure that not even one single HNWI is linked to those rallies. For most of the gaining penny shares daily turnover did not exceed the Rs 200 million mark.
To all the excited people, I got a simple question. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? Has the economic condition of the country improved????
Is the Inflation coming down???
What about the Interest rates, is it coming down????
Did the government or the government policy regard to economy changed???
Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports?????
Or were these stocks under valued????
For me the answers would be NO for all of the above. So we are excited, BUT WHY??????

There are many reasons to be excited ! In june this year, the ASPI index dipped to around 4800 i think.since then, the market index has got up approx 15 % in 3 months. Now, in June at the height of doom and gloom if you had sold and or invested at 15 % FD, you have every reason to not feel excited. some shares have gone up 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent since then. not only penny stocks but many fundamentally sound good shares for eg, JKH (165-200), Sampath (150-200), DFCC (100-120), NDB (100-120), CINV (70-90), GUAR (150-180), RICH (6.20-9), DIMO (580-700), UML (70-95), CFLB (22-38) RENU (190-250), DIST (120-140). If in Cash (FD), the annualized return in the last 3 months is approx 4 % in comparison. So investors who held on or bought in may/june have every reason to be excited. I shall try to answer your questions point by point to clarrify some of your concerns.
1. For these rallies is there any valid reason??? In modern markets there does not have to be any speciftic reason for a rally. In greece for eg year todate, market is still up 1.9 %. now these chaps have some serious problems. now, shouldnt their market have been down this year.? In pakistan, the market is up 34.4 % year todate. bombs are going off every day and boy dont they have some serious economic problems. a list of 2012 stock market performance year to date from Yardeni Research Inc (www.yardeni.com) dated 7th sept 2012 is as follows :
(all in percentages)
World Index : + 1.5
Europe : + 8.4
Emerging Markets : + 5.8
S & P 500 : + 14.3
France : + 11.4
Germany : + 22.3
Sweden : + 7.6
Switzerland : + 10.1
UK : + 4.0
Greece : + 1.9
Ireland : + 12.4
Spain : minus 7.1
Italy : + 6.8
Brazil : + 1.8
China : 0
India : + 14.4
Russia : + 6.5
Indonesia : + 8.4
Malaysia : +6.1
Pakistan : + 34.4
Korea : + 5.7
Taiwan : + 5.0
Singapore : + 13.8
Philliphines : + 18.6

As you will observe, except for Spain (and Sri-Lanka !), all other markets are up so far in 2012. many of these countries have worse problems than us. In India, the Indian Rupee has devalued 12 % year todate. In some of countries in the Eurozone, Interest rates have doubled from 3 to 6 %. China is experiencing a hard landing, Eurozone Debt crisis, In America Fiscal Cliff, Housing sector problems, record Unemployment worse drought in history. Hope your getting the picture !
2. Has the economic condition of the country improved???? - Just because the economic condition of the country may not have improved in the short term, it does not mean that the Stock Market should be down or vice versa. There are plenty of companies that will improve their performance despite the countries economic condition. Still, the GDP growth is estimated at 7 % and by chance if they discover Oil and Gas next year, Then all bets are off !
3. Is the Inflation coming down???- Actually, inflation is a friend of Stocks and a enemy of Cash (FD). If you can identify stocks trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, then inflation hedges you against rising prices, as (fixed) assets values will rise with inflation . The interest you get from a Fixed Income instrument reduces your purchasing power in inflationary times. This is not my personel opinion but that of Warren Buffet.
4. What about the Interest rates, is it coming down???? - Time will tell ! but high interest rates do not neccessarily benefit the Cash Holder due to reduction in Purchasing Power.
5. the government or the government policy regard to economy changed??? What are the changes you contemplate ? what should they do ? What do you want them to do ? without knowing the answers to these questions, i cannot answer your question accurately.
6. Did any of the companies released or expect to release great financial reports????? - many will and many wont. our job is to identify companies that will release good / great financial reports in the future and buy when these companies stock prices are down like the opportunity we got in in june this year.
7. Or were these stocks under valued???? Depends on your definition of value. For me, if i can find a stock trading at 3,4,5 time P/E, Trading at a discount to its intrinsic NAV (after marking to market the true value of its assets) and gives a reasonable dividend yield of 5-7 %, has a good management, has a stable business etc it is undervalued. even if 2-3 of the above criteria are met, it is undervalued. sometimes companies trading at 5-10 times earnings with some future hidden potential may be undervalued. As i have mentioned before, valuation depends on your opportunity cost. In june this year, many companies exhibited these numerical characteristics.

I hope i have been able to answer your queries to your satisfaction.

Great... So we got every reason to be excited and invest again... Right??? but still... having all these positive factors ( according to you ) , WHY THE HELL DID OUR MARKET CRASHED????

My point is that Economic condition of the country did not improved ( it is worsening , my personal view ) So how come the market bounce back in a worse environment where it crashed???????

Greece and Europe .... Cmon buddy, their markets recover bcoz of the announcements of stimulus packages & announced spending cuts. What about Sri Lanka?????

Pakistan.. Hell yeah.. another south Asian country

Modern markets does not react to economic condition??? that is the first time i heard that... May be a new theory .. Or yes Manipulation i guess u meant.

Inflation... I thought Inflation is a indicator about where Economy is heading... My bad

Government Policy??? Ok... How about reducing of expenditure??? Reducing of the Cabinet??? How about stopping stopping the polls that we have on every other month.... Corruption??? ( this is getting political

Quote - " many will release good results , many wont " ... prophesy??? Will many release good results under worsening global & domestic economic condition????

Some stocks are undervalued???? Example please... If there are any undervalued stocks why the hell people wait till economic downturn??? Why the hell foreign funds left????

Could you please answer these too???

Investor1984
By the tone of your reply, I got the impression that you seem to be one angry, bitter man who may have got burnt in the market in the past. So i looked up your past posts and was surprised to see that almost all your past posts have 3 recurring themes in them, i.e. crap, bullshit and manipulation. In one of your posts, you admitted that you had got burnt in the market. I am really sorry to hear this. In May this year, I had posted a good article namely "40 lessons to find strength in hard times". search in the forum for this article and please read it.

I was also surprised by a article you wrote on 18th sept 2011 which i think encapsulates your investment strategy. this is reproduced below for your easy reference

quote
There are good research teams in our brokering houses, some are highly qualified, but the trend is that investment advisers dont recommend what researchers recommend , brokers only recommend what they collect and what are hot on a given day.. brokers are more speculative these days that some are more speculative than average retailers. So naturally customers ( ie u & me ) will more or less believe what broker says and will ignore the research reports , as we are dealing with brokers and we more or less trust broker rather than the unseen researcher. Sometimes the investment advisers dont know anything about what researchers recommend> we are dealing in market where no one give a damn about technicals or fundamentals , Only rumors and manipulation matters in this market , so best thing to do to WIN in this market is to get network with others, to be informed about the rumor befor it turn in to the news , get to know about the stock which is goin to be manipulated next rather than knowing it after it get manipulated , yes its highly unethical patter of trading , yet thats what we must do to survive in CSE . this is what i believe ...."
unquote

Just a final piece of advise. You will find it hard to win consistently with the above strategy or this way of thinking.
Now, I have two choices. one, to try to further clarrify your new queries or to relax and have a good drink this sunday evening. I think i'll choose the latter !
Good luck in your trading activities

@ The alchemist

It seems that u do lot of research. You even bothered to read my past posts. It seems that u r soooo desperate of proving that THIS IS THE TIME TO BUY... Please, dont mislead people. U may have holding some shares and you may be praying for them to go up. There is no valid reason for this market to pick up. Have i burnt my fingers???? U mean losses??? Yes Profit , Loss its part of the game. But misleading people should not be. Be honest.

In this forum you will find lot of geniuses , pundits. They will be very busy posting article rallying people to buy worthless shares, they will rally people to buy when the market is going down. But they suddenly disappear when they dump their shares at the cost of the innocent people they mislead. You are just one of those guys.

I have seen lot in this forum. People Like Chinwi, Smallville .. they real deals. They talk about facts. You just talk "crap" ... You just want this market to go up, you dont have valid reasons. It seems that you will get burnt this time, coz unlike in early days people hear dont listen everything that self proclaimed Investments Gurus going to say. Cheers. By the way dont waste too much time reading outdated posts in this forum. You should get updated

ona thanaka pissu kiyana ekek innawa.Meketh pacha kiyapu aya dan panala giya.Menna aluth ekkenek awilla.Hodai malli kiyamau balanna heta gaththoth sikuradata loss weida?

worthiness wrote:Interesting points to read & balance.
Perhaps, it is technical vs economic indicators vs human factors.
Present day outcome could be combinations of all recipes.

smallville-
May I request you to expand your valid reason no.1
Does it mean the hanging pattern in the past create current positive technical pattern?

What I actually meant was that chart patters are again a representation of human emotions.. We behave in a ways that is somewhat predictable looking at the past actions.. Why? humans do have a tendency to adapt slow changes in their thinking.. So the crowd mentality is a perfect match for the investment cycle.. remember facts such as; Fear, greed, hope, desperation, etc...

So we as humans trade according to these mentalities.. Then all these patterns were also identified using the same set of reactions..
Ppl collect slowly.. How they do that? They buy in small qualities without affecting the price.. Then after a collection is nearing its end, some aggressive buying take place.. Some intelligent traders realize a collection is going on and enter the stock so the demand creates.. then the collectors wait for the price action to take a leap and dump with profit..
On the contrary.. some HNWIs buy a large sum then with the news price goes up or brokers make sure they create the news.. Now retailers rally to buy the share.. Some of us also get in to the band wagon and benefit or lose.. Ultimately HNWIs dump.. We become fools..

Once the distribution is over the stock again comes down to its previous value or to a new level..

So when this happens we look for a support level.. A level that the stock has previously run and didnt pass is also a support level when the stock breaks thru and make a new base..

We now see the aforesaid cycle going on for months again.. Previously dumped guys or some new guys start to collect again and u know what would happen next..

These are the patterns marked by the charts.

I actually dont look for what has happened in the past except for the fact whether a pattern could be valid for the respective stock if happened earlier.

Look at the following chart pattern of RICH in 2011 run;



The share was at 10 level then it went to 16 withing a month (before the sub div it could have been ard 130 I think). But on its way starting from 10, it has made a pull back to 12.50.

Now look at the fibonacci retracements drawn. From the first run to pullbackit perfectly
predict the 38.2% level on 12.5 which is a strong support level in Fibonacci.
So if some one enters after the pull back still 3 rupees profit could be made..

Now look at the recent run of RICH..


It has come down to 5.6 level.Then it went to 7.20 and made a pullback.
The pullback just dropped in between 38.2% - 50% area which is as I said a strong support..
Now has it not run up to 9 after that?



Now if I talk more of this, SEC may take me to the 4th floor.. So I should stop now..
Hint: look at the other patterns which I've not discussed..

But Why.....

Every where speculation plays a major role. Just look @ so called develop markets. If u take forex mkt without nothing EUR/ USD pair went up to 1.2600 levels from 1.2350 levels.
But why..... only the expectation/speculation of the crowd that the ECB will reduce borrowing cost of euro zone.... simple as that. Has the euro zone troubles are over????????????????? Answar is NO as u said. but the mkt is going up .... But why???????????????

bandara 123 wrote: But Why.....

Every where speculation plays a major role. Just look @ so called develop markets. If u take forex mkt without nothing EUR/ USD pair went up to 1.2600 levels from 1.2350 levels.
But why..... only the expectation/speculation of the crowd that the ECB will reduce borrowing cost of euro zone.... simple as that. Has the euro zone troubles are over????????????????? Answar is NO as u said. but the mkt is going up .... But why???????????????

Why you make a new account today and publish this?why???????.Go to ........

Yes,

I had one a/c. earlier. but can't remember the password and the email address of that a/c. i tried several times in the past as well. but coudn't get it back. if u can support me the way how can i get i will delete this a/c.

I replied to this with known facts. Nothing hidden there. why ur so excited....? even this is my 1 reply can't i do that with a good mind.....

The Alchemist wrote:
3 recurring themes in them, i.e. crap, bullshit and manipulation. In one of your posts, you admitted that you had got burnt in the market.

I was also surprised by a article you wrote on 18th sept 2011 which i think encapsulates your investment strategy. this is reproduced below for your easy reference

There are good research teams in our brokering houses, some are highly qualified, but the trend is that investment advisers dont recommend what researchers recommend , brokers only recommend what they collect and what are hot on a given day.. brokers are more speculative these days that some are more speculative than average retailers. So naturally customers ( ie u & me ) will more or less believe what broker says and will ignore the research reports , as we are dealing with brokers and we more or less trust broker rather than the unseen researcher. Sometimes the investment advisers dont know anything about what researchers recommend> we are dealing in market where no one give a damn about technicals or fundamentals , Only rumors and manipulation matters in this market , so best thing to do to WIN in this market is to get network with others, to be informed about the rumor befor it turn in to the news , get to know about the stock which is goin to be manipulated next rather than knowing it after it get manipulated , yes its highly unethical patter of trading , yet thats what we must do to survive in CSE . this is what i believe ...."

Just a final piece of advise. You will find it hard to win consistently with the above strategy or this way of thinking.
Now, I have two choices. one, to try to further clarrify your new queries or to relax and have a good drink this sunday evening. I think i'll choose the latter !
Good luck in your trading activities

Smart!! I do not drink but I even like choosing the "relaxing" part...

Why the market crashed?
In simple terms it has risen too much on credit that was not existing in the system.
SEC had estimated that around Rs 2.2 billion of unutilized credit lying in the market which had been given on credit to investors, making SL equity market fueled with credit.

Ppl were dragged into worthless counters and when the margin calls come, everyone had to panic sell.
We're lucky that market sees in green teretory now when some HNWIs are lost having Billion rupee margins . They should be worshiping the banks that eventully would consider making it a long term debt

Economic condition of the country is not worsening.. Its turning little by little..
With an economy worth $64 billion (2012 IMF estimate) and a per capita GDP of about $7900 (PPP), SL is ahead of other countries in the South Asian region.

smallville wrote:
Economic condition of the country is not worsening.. Its turning little by little..
With an economy worth $64 billion (2012 IMF estimate) and a per capita GDP of about $7900 (PPP), SL is ahead of other countries in the South Asian region.

Actually if anything we are loosing that race! We used to be the number 1 in south east asia in GDP (PPP) for decades and decades. But now Maldives and Bhutan is pulling ahead of us during past few years. Also our economies worth is dam small when compared with India, Pakistan and even Bangladesh!

Also why do we have to compare with one of the worst regions in the world? Lets at least do comparisons to Asia and try to strive with determination! IF we keep trying to stay on top of south Asia, whats going on currently is exactly what will happen even in the future!

Sources:-


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Asian_countries_by_GDP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Asian_and_Pacific_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

From a crappy post springs a fountain of knowledge..... that's exciting

Thanks seniors, your efforts are much appreciated.

Did the bull run in 2009 and 2010 occur as a result of Economic or macro factors
suddenly changing or was it the dispelling of fear and risk after the bombs stopped ? It's just a mind game. Nothing to do with economics.
How on earth can you make a stock market grow by 125% and 96 % in two consecutive years, simply by improving the economic factors ?
In fact, no such radical changes took place in the macro situation.None at all.
A similar situation emerged after the removal of the SEC boss, as there is a new sense of freedom and hope, among the HNWI's and the small retailers are aware of the opportunities, especially as they feel that the bad days are over. Without SEC investigating every price hike and imposing 10% bans, this can be the beginning of another cycle, with credit or no credit, as there are billions stuck with
people who invested in a record number of IPO's and private placements in 2011.
All this will be released in the coming months as the ASI moves towards 6000.

FortuneMaker wrote:Did the bull run in 2009 and 2010 occur as a result of Economic or macro factors
suddenly changing or was it the dispelling of fear and risk after the bombs stopped ? It's just a mind game. Nothing to do with economics.
How on earth can you make a stock market grow by 125% and 96 % in two consecutive years, simply by improving the economic factors ?
In fact, no such radical changes took place in the macro situation.None at all.
A similar situation emerged after the removal of the SEC boss, as there is a new sense of freedom and hope, among the HNWI's and the small retailers are aware of the opportunities, especially as they feel that the bad days are over. Without SEC investigating every price hike and imposing 10% bans, this can be the beginning of another cycle, with credit or no credit, as there are billions stuck with
people who invested in a record number of IPO's and private placements in 2011.
All this will be released in the coming months as the ASI moves towards 6000.

Please go check financial reports pre and post way of companies! Does;t matter hotels finial or even exports! Also go check the currency rates and the economic growth indices before and after and you can find the answer! For a tree to grown there should be at least some stable base!