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HPWR Q3 Financial out!!!! need a Technical analysis of current price..

+2
CSE.SEE
monash
6 posters

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monash

monash
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

HPWR reported 107 million Net profit with EPS- 0.81 for the Q3 2010.

Is current price undervalued or overvalued? If somebody can give a technical analysis of HPWR really appreciated..

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/881_1296639458744.pdf

CSE.SEE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

monash wrote:HPWR reported 107 million Net profit with EPS- 0.81 for the Q3 2010.

Is current price undervalued or overvalued? If somebody can give a technical analysis of HPWR really appreciated..

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/881_1296639458744.pdf

HPWR.N0000 (03/02/2011) Technical Analysis Price Level

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t309-hpwrn0000-03-02-2011-technical-analysis-price-level#1455

monash

monash
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

CSE.SEE thank you.. If u can analyze Q3 results and tell us whether HPWR undervalued or overvalued at current price level it would be great..

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

It's under valued at the current price last 9 months EPS 2.40 PE of around 15
annulised EPS should be around 3.2 if you take PE at 15 for the final quarter discounting this quarter it should trade towards the upper limit of 48 + .

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

monash wrote:HPWR reported 107 million Net profit with EPS- 0.81 for the Q3 2010.

Is current price undervalued or overvalued? If somebody can give a technical analysis of HPWR really appreciated..

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/881_1296639458744.pdf

Sorry but this financial Report is quite weak and not what most people expected. Their profits have dwindled from quarter to quarter and seems to be true for almost but 1 company report announced today.
Maybe as previous post few people might see it that way but I doubt any new investor will see it this way. Most probably they would be looking at a quarter to quarter weak finical report when there were high expectations for the share. So I won't be surprise the share price go down quite a bit tomorrow or stagnate at the current prices.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Rajitha wrote:
monash wrote:HPWR reported 107 million Net profit with EPS- 0.81 for the Q3 2010.

Is current price undervalued or overvalued? If somebody can give a technical analysis of HPWR really appreciated..

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/881_1296639458744.pdf

Sorry but this financial Report is quite weak and not what most people expected. Their profits have dwindled from quarter to quarter and seems to be true for almost but 1 company report announced today.
Maybe as previous post few people might see it that way but I doubt any new investor will see it this way. Most probably they would be looking at a quarter to quarter weak finical report when there were high expectations for the share. So I won't be surprise the share price go down quite a bit tomorrow or stagnate at the current prices.

If you look at quarter to quarter growth yes what Rajitha says is true. We do not see a improvement. But if you look at the Annulaized EPS is will be around 3.2. So The current price is not bad and can be considered undervalued compared to its peers . Best to monitor how the market reacts though as growth was not seen.

cse.alpha


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

HPWR - A few comments & observations, not recommendations:

* YoY or QoQ comparison of results may be misleading, and annualising should also be done carefully
- Hydro power is seasonal, and influenced by un-controllable and un-forecastable weather patterns
- Thermal power suffers from irregular operating & maintenance (O&M) costs

* Preference share dividends need to be deducted
- Adjusted for preference share dividends, 9month net profit is around Rs300 m

* New projects will kick in soon
- Third mini hydro under construction
- Options in Africa are to explored as per LBO article in Nov 2010
- Company seems to have got good price on last year's purchase of Senok Mark Hydro too

* Assuming a further Rs100 mn in 4Q (almost unchanged YoY), HPWR should report Rs400 mn profit for FY11
- Forward FY11 EPS is Rs3.2 on this basis, and forward FY11 PER is 11.6x at Rs37
- As power sector is highly cash generative, chance for around Rs1.5-2.0 per share in dividends
- But longer term earnings and growth are more important
- Potential to improve EPS in FY12E with new plant likely to start - but weather patterns will also influence output
- CEB has reduced rates for new mini hydros

* Share trading at discount to mini hydros
- But is this a case of the others being over-valued, or HPWR being under-valued?
- Does HPWR need a discount as it is not a pure mini-hydro company? Or does its growth require a premium?

* 75% of company with promoters; low free float can be influenced quite easily

* Fundamental analysis aside, what were traders and investors expecting as HPWR 3Q results?
- Investor expectations matter
- To what degree will traders be disappointed by YoY and QoQ drop in earnings, or will they look at valuations?

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