Interim Financial Statement - HOPL

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/709_1304683137.pdf

The first plantation result is out.. Now we're seeing the plantation profits for real..
EPS of 13.03 and 244% increased compared to last year..

Good revenue from Tea & Rubber and Tea being the primary source of income.. But Rubber has made the gross profit margin higher..

Lets see the others

smallville wrote:The first plantation result is out.. Now we're seeing the plantation profits for real..
EPS of 13.03 and 244% increased compared to last year..

Good revenue from Tea & Rubber and Tea being the primary source of income.. But Rubber has made the gross profit margin higher..

Lets see the others

Yes really good result...That is why I posted this pdf...Bt I don't have any plantation stock at the moment...

What will be the impact of Wage hike on HOPL. By the way what is the current status of it.

Good results indeed (the second infact the first was TPL), but like I said in that TPL thread and also repeated by cse.alpha in an unrelated thread, this is the last quarter we are seeing good results from plantations. Both rubber prices and tea prices are steadily declining.

I think the wage hike issue is already factored into most Plantation share prices,hence trading at low PE multiples: Rubber and Palm Oil are less labour intensive anyway.

Kindly refer these 2 news items .

1. Global Tyre production is increasing and hence more demand for NR . http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/43056.html

2. Due the High rainfall in Thailand and Malaysia the NR production is dropping. Production forecasts reduced.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/global-natural-rubber-output-estimates-cut/434198/

If above 1 and 2 is correct then the NR price must move up unless there is some other issue blocking the price upward movement.

Correct me if I missed some thing in-between.

milanka wrote:Kindly refer these 2 news items .

1. Global Tyre production is increasing and hence more demand for NR . http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/43056.html

2. Due the High rainfall in Thailand and Malaysia the NR production is dropping. Production forecasts reduced.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/global-natural-rubber-output-estimates-cut/434198/

If above 1 and 2 is correct then the NR price must move up unless there is some other issue blocking the price upward movement.

Correct me if I missed some thing in-between.

One in-between thing that you've missed is yesterday's oil price collapse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/8497774/Oil-price-extends-sharp-falls-on-growth-fears.html

when oil falls, synthetic rubber prices fall and since it is a substitute for NR in certain industries NR prices can face downward pressure. NR prices will also be hurt if global economic growth slows

of course you can never accurately predict commodity prices so who knows what will happen next week.....

innam wrote:

milanka wrote:Kindly refer these 2 news items .

1. Global Tyre production is increasing and hence more demand for NR . http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/43056.html

2. Due the High rainfall in Thailand and Malaysia the NR production is dropping. Production forecasts reduced.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/global-natural-rubber-output-estimates-cut/434198/

If above 1 and 2 is correct then the NR price must move up unless there is some other issue blocking the price upward movement.

Correct me if I missed some thing in-between.

One in-between thing that you've missed is yesterday's oil price collapse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/8497774/Oil-price-extends-sharp-falls-on-growth-fears.html

when oil falls, synthetic rubber prices fall and since it is a substitute for NR in certain industries NR prices can face downward pressure. NR prices will also be hurt if global economic growth slows

of course you can never accurately predict commodity prices so who knows what will happen next week.....

Thanks innam, I had actually just hit the send button when the system notified me of your post. Your have said what I have to and done it much better but i will add my 2 cents anyway:

Kindly refer these news items: Sri Lanka Tea Prices Fall: http://lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=92285926

And this more recent link on the business-standard.com which contradicts their previous article linked to by milanka. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/natural-rubber-prices-dip-17-inweekimproved-supplies/434598/

And this link about global commodity prices falling. Crude price drop is bad news for rubber:
http://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2011/05/crude-consecutive-prices-drop


Please also note that rubber prices started declining before the Japanese tsunami, what was seen in recent weeks is temporary uptrend. This is pretty much like how people were saying in the second week of october that the share prices will keep on going up.

Thanks both of you ( innam and tabul ) for the comprehensive analysis and highlighting what I missed in-between. Helped a lot identifying in complete business cycle not just the demand and supply but also the related areas too.

tubal wrote:Good results indeed (the second infact the first was TPL), but like I said in that TPL thread and also repeated by cse.alpha in an unrelated thread, this is the last quarter we are seeing good results from plantations. Both rubber prices and tea prices are steadily declining.

Please don't post crap without any research mate! I respect you but you just posting stuff with no base! These are the 3 last rubber auction prices! They are actually on the increase last few weeks!
19/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 550.00 - 575.00 562.50
21/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 575.00 - 585.00 580.0
26/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 590.00 - flat 590.00
28/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 610.00 - flat 610.00


And No!! The earnings for the next quarter will again be great! The wage hike thing is still under talk and this going quarter will even be over quite soon before that!

PS:- About the tea price fall , READ AGAIN WELL! It says the reason for this is the amazing amount of Tea output! So considering this plantation companies should have even better results not weaker! You could understand this if can remember the last quarter palm oil incident!

innam wrote:

milanka wrote:Kindly refer these 2 news items .

1. Global Tyre production is increasing and hence more demand for NR . http://print.dailymirror.lk/business/127-local/43056.html

2. Due the High rainfall in Thailand and Malaysia the NR production is dropping. Production forecasts reduced.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/global-natural-rubber-output-estimates-cut/434198/

If above 1 and 2 is correct then the NR price must move up unless there is some other issue blocking the price upward movement.

Correct me if I missed some thing in-between.

One in-between thing that you've missed is yesterday's oil price collapse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/8497774/Oil-price-extends-sharp-falls-on-growth-fears.html

when oil falls, synthetic rubber prices fall and since it is a substitute for NR in certain industries NR prices can face downward pressure. NR prices will also be hurt if global economic growth slows

of course you can never accurately predict commodity prices so who knows what will happen next week.....

The current high rubber prices are a result of more demand than supply! the main cause for this is the huge rubber needed for the tire business thats coming up from India and China! This is estimated to keep growing! Not mainly by synthetic rubber!
Well as a Sri Lankan saying goes
Kana onewenakota kabara goyat thala goya wenawa!

results are exceptional as we expected..............
some points to consider..........

*The company intends to add around 70 – 80 hectares of rubber per annum
during the next couple of years post replanting which would enable HOPL to produce higher output.

*Due to its high exposure to the high grown teas, we expect the segment to
experience greater volatility with regard to earnings as high growns are subject
to greater price fluctuations compared to low grown teas. Concerns also
exist with the expiry of the current wage agreement in March 2011 which if
revised upwards, should result in further increases in costs for the segment
and lower earnings due to high labour intensity.

*Issued Share Capital Voting-25Mn
*FY 2011 EPS Rs. 13.03
*PER-(70/13.03)= 5 TIMES
*revenue from tea-64% rubber-32%
*profit from tea-15% rubber-72%
*The rubber segment enjoyed significant gains thanks to soaring rubber prices.

Have a look at the share holder list ! You should be able to observer Dr . Senthilverl has exited the share in big way and almost ALL the banks have increased their stake by huge margins! Also the shares of the bottom half of the top 20 has increased a lot!

Rajitha wrote:

tubal wrote:Good results indeed (the second infact the first was TPL), but like I said in that TPL thread and also repeated by cse.alpha in an unrelated thread, this is the last quarter we are seeing good results from plantations. Both rubber prices and tea prices are steadily declining.

Please don't post crap without any research mate! I respect you but you just posting stuff with no base! These are the 3 last rubber auction prices! They are actually on the increase last few weeks!
19/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 550.00 - 575.00 562.50
21/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 575.00 - 585.00 580.0
26/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 590.00 - flat 590.00
28/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 610.00 - flat 610.00


And No!! The earnings for the next quarter will again be great! The wage hike thing is still under talk and this going quarter will even be over quite soon before that!

PS:- About the tea price fall , READ AGAIN WELL! It says the reason for this is the amazing amount of Tea output! So considering this plantation companies should have even better results not weaker! You could understand this if can remember the last quarter palm oil incident!

Rajitha don't assume that you are the only one who knows about rubber prices. In fact, what I can tell you is that little knowledge is dangerous. As I mentioned in my post what we are seeing is a temporary uptrend in a medium term down trend..

The rubber prices have not been updated since the global decline. Please also note that the thai, malaysian and indonesian plantations will be out of wintering soon.

But you are free to dream on, and I will be gloating at you just like you were gloating at the chicken farmer. Oh and BTW, I've been warning about the chicken run since the days of investnow and most recently, I called the recent high on BFL as a double top.

tubal wrote:

Rajitha don't assume that you are the only one who knows about rubber prices. In fact, what I can tell you is that little knowledge is dangerous. As I mentioned in my post what we are seeing is a temporary uptrend in a medium term down trend..

The rubber prices have not been updated since the global decline. Please also note that the thai, malaysian and indonesian plantations will be out of wintering soon.

But you are free to dream on, and I will be gloating at you just like you were gloating at the chicken farmer. Oh and BTW, I've been warning about the chicken run since the days of investnow and most recently, I called the recent high on BFL as a double top.

I can safely say my little knowledge is way more than the knowledge you have! Having my father owned a tea estate and doing research on that field! The rubber price have updated since the global decline which last only week or two! Only reason the rubber prices even went down these few days were because of the close of auctions for a week!

Also regarding the wintering of other countries rubber plantations! Did you think all Sri lankan rubber factories were collecting at full swing ? Please go do some research ! The rubber output in the coming quarters will increase for sri lankan plantations and most plantation have new maturing HIGH YIELDING rubber crops as well! Also I'm not expecting the rubber prices to drop below Rs 500 anyway which is a more than great price!
Maybe its your prerogative to promote a slaughter house shares and to own parts of slaughter house but just remember the risks involved in it also!

FYI:- You have no clue how these estates undervalue the assets + earnings ! I pity you if you believe this quarters earnings they showing are if not atleast by large % undervalued with specially the union wage hike going on!

Rajitha wrote:

tubal wrote:

Rajitha don't assume that you are the only one who knows about rubber prices. In fact, what I can tell you is that little knowledge is dangerous. As I mentioned in my post what we are seeing is a temporary uptrend in a medium term down trend..

The rubber prices have not been updated since the global decline. Please also note that the thai, malaysian and indonesian plantations will be out of wintering soon.

But you are free to dream on, and I will be gloating at you just like you were gloating at the chicken farmer. Oh and BTW, I've been warning about the chicken run since the days of investnow and most recently, I called the recent high on BFL as a double top.

I can safely say my little knowledge is way more than the knowledge you have! Having my father owned a tea estate and doing research on that field! The rubber price have updated since the global decline which last only week or two! Only reason the rubber prices even went down these few days were because of the close of auctions for a week!

Also regarding the wintering of other countries rubber plantations! Did you think all Sri lankan rubber factories were collecting at full swing ? Please go do some research ! The rubber output in the coming quarters will increase for sri lankan plantations and most plantation have new maturing HIGH YIELDING rubber crops as well! Also I'm not expecting the rubber prices to drop below Rs 500 anyway which is a more than great price!
Maybe its your prerogative to promote a slaughter house shares and to own parts of slaughter house but just remember the risks involved in it also!

I bow to your superior knowledge and concede victory. However from your writing style, it's apparent to me that your father ....................................................
But then I could be wrong about that too like you have proven me wrong about rubber just now and you have proven everyone else wrong about everything else. So once again I appologise if I have mistaken your ...... to be a Appu or a Thottam.

Oh even though you claim to be a lecturer in another thread, it seems that you have trouble reading (again I could be wrong about this and my sincere appologies if I am wrong), because what I said was I have warned against the chicken shares.. Perhaps I didn't write it in good enough english, as you claimed in another thread, you are the only one here who can write proper english. I think you are rite about that too.

Thanks and happy trading.

PS: please note that I am agreeing with everything you have said (in my poor english) so don't blast off another angry reply.

SS wrote:What will be the impact of Wage hike on HOPL. By the way what is the current status of it.

This link explains the current situ :
http://www.ft.lk/2011/05/06/talks-continue-over-plantation-wage-hike/

smallville wrote:The first plantation result is out.. Now we're seeing the plantation profits for real..
EPS of 13.03 and 244% increased compared to last year..

Good revenue from Tea & Rubber and Tea being the primary source of income.. But Rubber has made the gross profit margin higher..

Lets see the others

I think this is the second financial report in the plantation sector forthe Q ending 31st march 2011. Talawakele report was out a week ago and that is also very impresive.

kam2011 wrote:

smallville wrote:The first plantation result is out.. Now we're seeing the plantation profits for real..
EPS of 13.03 and 244% increased compared to last year..

Good revenue from Tea & Rubber and Tea being the primary source of income.. But Rubber has made the gross profit margin higher..

Lets see the others

I think this is the second financial report in the plantation sector forthe Q ending 31st march 2011. Talawakele report was out a week ago and that is also very impresive.

Ahh.. apologies.. i've really forgotten that

if you want to know the future of the plantation companies ......
it all depend on global smart money.
lets see ......

P.S

forgive my vague language . I'm not biased to any commodity !!!

tkc wrote:http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/709_1304683137.pdf

Thanks... one by one results coming out..

Whatever the impressive result they showed, investors do not ready to invest confidently on plantation shares, that's why most plantations like KGAL, NAMU trade at very low P/E ratios. So that we can't say those are attractive based on low P/E ratios because they are never gonna appreciate beyond that level. But unfortunately some people with expertise knowledge on tea,rubber hold plantation stocks as their life.

PS. Some birds Can't fly.....

RockStock wrote:Whatever the impressive result they showed, investors do not ready to invest confidently on plantation shares, that's why most plantations like KGAL, NAMU trade at very low P/E ratios. So that we can't say those are attractive based on low P/E ratios because they are never gonna appreciate beyond that level. But unfortunately some people with expertise knowledge on tea,rubber hold plantation stocks as their life.

PS. Some birds Can't fly.....

Well some ppl like me really keen on plantations like KGAL & NAMU for the fact of future earnings potential.. As much as these are cyclical, its ur wit says u gotta exit at certain points and buy back for the next run There are reasons that they hold on to plantations while so many disagrees

Well...IF U Know the Ropes then Hold Your Horses

Rajitha wrote:

tubal wrote:Good results indeed (the second infact the first was TPL), but like I said in that TPL thread and also repeated by cse.alpha in an unrelated thread, this is the last quarter we are seeing good results from plantations. Both rubber prices and tea prices are steadily declining.

Please don't post crap without any research mate! I respect you but you just posting stuff with no base! These are the 3 last rubber auction prices! They are actually on the increase last few weeks!
19/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 550.00 - 575.00 562.50
21/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 575.00 - 585.00 580.0
26/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 590.00 - flat 590.00
28/4/2011 Latex Crepe No.1X 610.00 - flat 610.00


And No!! The earnings for the next quarter will again be great! The wage hike thing is still under talk and this going quarter will even be over quite soon before that!

PS:- About the tea price fall , READ AGAIN WELL! It says the reason for this is the amazing amount of Tea output! So considering this plantation companies should have even better results not weaker! You could understand this if can remember the last quarter palm oil incident!

This is what you were saying at the time you sold your plantation shares and bought 'slaughter houses neda?'