Technical Analytics & Charts (2)

traderathome wrote:Appreciate your comments on the VONE.N chart posted earlier.
Trying to concentrate only on few counters such as JKH/VONE/CTC.

NEST needs to come to 1850 imo.
CTC looks reasonably poised for another run from 1000-1250/1450 upside in few months.
JKH -Testing 300-302

Feed back would be most welcome.

CTC@1200 isnt it better if a correction takes place towards 1000.
This is good for LT.

TAH

DFCC.N can find SUPPORT around 115-113

Anyone intending to BUY....?

Thought of POSTING SAMP chart.

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

You may remember I ENTERED 221 SAMP.N and made loss when it HIT my SL.

So trade with CARE.

Looking for a reversal around 180ish

traderathome wrote:JKHclosed @269 today after somber trading in the morning.
This is good sign to ease pressure on SL 265/-

On VONE which i am very much interested so some trades @ 17.8 and 17.9 in the morning which i could not understand why there is no retail interst in view of Dividends XD on 30/7/13,however afternoon session we saw some bigger trades changing hands @18. CMP 18.10 -18.20 gives us clear indication come monday some brief interst to trade around 18.5-19 with 19 being critical RES to break on the LT journey towards 22+.
The selling pressure may continue on XD date.however i have failed to understand that 17.50 being the last LOW & on announcement date the counter was trading around 17.90 with 1 more day for XD left the counter still trading @ around 18-18.10Rs where as this should have captured more interest which it did infact for a brief moment to hit intraday high of 18.7 soon after the announcement but lost its steam since then for further collection @ 17.9-18.There is however a short term risk as VONE has not crossed critical 19rs and in my view BEARs & BULLs are fighting it out, so 19-17 zone would be critical for both.

Here is the Chart on JKH.

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

The EXIT is below 240.
However those who like to trade on HPP, please note Rs 233, 225 can act as PRZ.

Trade With Care

Good Luck
TAH

traderathome wrote:

traderathome wrote:JKHclosed @269 today after somber trading in the morning.
This is good sign to ease pressure on SL 265/-

On VONE which i am very much interested so some trades @ 17.8 and 17.9 in the morning which i could not understand why there is no retail interst in view of Dividends XD on 30/7/13,however afternoon session we saw some bigger trades changing hands @18. CMP 18.10 -18.20 gives us clear indication come monday some brief interst to trade around 18.5-19 with 19 being critical RES to break on the LT journey towards 22+.
The selling pressure may continue on XD date.however i have failed to understand that 17.50 being the last LOW & on announcement date the counter was trading around 17.90 with 1 more day for XD left the counter still trading @ around 18-18.10Rs where as this should have captured more interest which it did infact for a brief moment to hit intraday high of 18.7 soon after the announcement but lost its steam since then for further collection @ 17.9-18.There is however a short term risk as VONE has not crossed critical 19rs and in my view BEARs & BULLs are fighting it out, so 19-17 zone would be critical for both.

Here is the Chart on JKH.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]" />

The EXIT is below 240.
However those who like to trade on HPP, please note Rs 233, 225 can act as PRZ.

Trade With Care

Good Luck
TAH

Forget the numbers.Technics will be beaten buy fundementals.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t30377-technical-analysis-is-the-last-thing

Investopedia explains 'Market Sentiment'
Market sentiment is important to day traders and technical analysts, who use technical indicators to attempt to measure and profit from the short-term price changes often caused by investors' attitudes toward a security. Market sentiment is also important to contrarian investors, who like to trade in the opposite direction of the prevailing sentiment. For example, if everyone is buying, a contrarian would sell.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketsentiment.asp

@Wella
R U speaking of this sentiment or something else ? 

I think you still have not understood what is meant by technical analysis...Harmonic Price Pattern.
What i do and use to the best of my ability by using the above is to find/gauge reversal zones for early entries instead some lagging indicators.
sometimes i loose sometime i gain....and your success depend on your strategy.
Good Luck

VONE is seeing the SELLING PRESSURE from the Retailers @ Rs16 and Below since today.

Some one wants to keep JKH above 240 it seems....by the looks of PA it may ultimately give in to the pressure......

Lets wait and see

TAH

traderathome wrote:Some one wants to keep JKH above 240 it seems....by the looks of PA it may ultimately give in to the pressure......

Lets wait and see

TAH

It's all about manipulation.Whether up or down.JKH,CTC,NEST looks like good relations(= controllers of them as well)

CTC -Good Buy @1000 again
NEST - 1850-2000
JKH - Hard One 230ish/225 or Extreme 200 Good BUYs if this Bearish sentis continue.

I think BIG WIGS are onto some GAME before Commonwealth.

Why Big Correction on CTC/NEST/JKH & LLUB
All these are part of their strategy.
Dollar Hitting HIGH just only a cover UP.

Here is the USD/LKR Chart.
Dollar about to HIT 135 in coming Weeks.

Good for Exports oriented Companies/Bad for Imports Companies.
[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Where is the Mudal Lekam who said the intend to keep Dollar @125/-

INR/USD Hitting High in the back of Corruption and scandals & High inflation...

In Srilanka its GOING UP but i dont know WHY  

traderathome wrote:Thought of POSTING SAMP chart.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]" />

You may remember I ENTERED 221 SAMP.N and made loss when it HIT my SL.

So trade with CARE.

Looking for a reversal around 180ish

Do not let Go Opportunities.......Be on the LOOK OUT
BUYING @ 180 & 160 could be a Smart Move.......

TAH

Time to accumulate Hard Cash & Not Credit....

BUY @ Bargains & @ Strategic Price Levels..

SAMP - 180/160 in
JKH - 235-225/200
VONE - 16/14
LION - 335
GL
TAH

AirTel SL planning to sell its stake to Etisalat ..Etisalat will be #2 if AGW.

Sri Lanka’s external sector remained stable with continued inflows being recorded in the balance of payments (BOP), the Central Bank said on Thursday (22).

"Cumulative foreign inflows to the country in the form of earnings from tourism, workers’ remittances, foreign direct investments (FDI) and investments in Government securities showed a noteworthy growth during the first half of 2013. Commercial banks and the corporate sector have also been able to raise more foreign funds this year, given the stable macroeconomic environment and further relaxation of exchange control regulations. The trade balance also continued to narrow with exports recording an increase on a year-on-year basis in June 2013," the Central Bank said releasing the report ‘External Sector Performance—June 2013’

The report in full: Trade Account of the BOP…

Both earnings from exports and expenditure on imports have recorded significant growth on a year-on-year basis in June 2013. Earnings from exports grew by 6.8 per cent in June 2013 to US dollars 807 million. Expenditure on imports increased by 15.3 per cent to US dollars 1,636 million in June 2013. However, on a cumulative basis, earnings from exports as well as expenditure on imports continued to decline by June. While earnings from exports during the first half of 2013 declined by 4.5 per cent, expenditure on imports during this period declined by 5.8 per cent. As a result, the deficit in the trade account for the first six months of 2013 declined by 7.1 per cent to US dollars 4,557 million.

The largest contribution to the growth in exports in June 2013 came from the significant increase in exports of textiles and garments, and tea. Earnings from exports of textiles and garments, which account for more than 40 per cent of total exports, increased by 14.9 per cent, year-on-year. Garment exports to the USA increased by 24.8 per cent, year-on-year, while garment exports to the EU increased by 6.7 per cent, year-on-year, in June 2013. Earnings from exports of machinery and mechanical appliances increased by 25.5 per cent, led by increased exports of electrical machinery and equipment and home appliances. Earnings from exports of rubber products also increased by 7.7 per cent to US dollars 69 million, led by increased exports of retreaded tyres; bicycle, motor cycle and motor car tyres; as well as rubber gloves. Agricultural exports, which account for about a quarter of export earnings, also increased on a year-on-year basis, reflecting the strong performance of the tea sector. Earnings from tea exports increased by 14.5 per cent in June 2013 with a 4.7 per cent increase in the export volume of tea coupled with an increase of around 9 per cent in the average export price of tea. Higher earnings from spice exports were propelled by better performance of commodities such as cloves, nutmeg and mace. Earnings from sesame seeds and arecanuts categorised under minor agricultural products increased significantly due to large volumes exported.

Expenditure on imports recorded a significant increase in June 2013 mainly as a result of higher expenditure on fuel imports. The average import price of crude oil rose by 9.0 per cent, year-on-year, to US dollars 105.25 per barrel in June 2013, while the import volume of petroleum in June 2013 was also significantly higher on a year-on-year basis due to increased imports of crude oil. On a cumulative basis however, expenditure on fuel imports during the first half of 2013 has recorded a year-on-year decline. Meanwhile, expenditure on non-fuel imports during the month of June 2013 increased at a moderate rate of 3.5 per cent, year-on-year, to US dollars 1,054 million. Import expenditure on fertilizer, which had continued to record year-on-year declines since the latter part of 2012, also increased substantially in June 2013, due to higher volumes imported to meet the demand in the market. Amongst other imported items that contributed significantly to the increased import expenditure in June 2013 were vehicles, classified under consumer goods. Increased imports of vehicles could be attributed mainly to the recent appreciation of the rupee against several currencies including the Japanese yen, due to cross currency movements. Expenditure on textiles and textile articles, classified under intermediate goods, which account for about a tenth of total import expenditure, meanwhile, declined in June 2013, negating to some extent, the impact of the increased expenditure on the above mentioned items.

Earnings from Tourism in the Services Account of the BOP

Earnings from tourism continue to record sound growth. Earnings from tourism grew by 29.0 per cent, year-on-year, in June 2013 to US dollars 81 million, from the US dollar 63 million recorded in June 2012. Total earnings from tourism during the first half of 2013 recorded a growth of 22.9 per cent, year-on-year, and amounted to US dollars 565.3 million, compared to the cumulative earnings of US dollars 459.9 million received from tourism during the corresponding period of 2012. Such a noteworthy increase in earnings from tourism was made possible as tourist arrivals have continued to increase on a year-on-year basis so far this year. Tourist arrivals increased by 12.8 per cent, year-on-year, to 73,628 in June 2013, raising the total number of tourists who visited Sri Lanka during the first half of the year to 512,281. Accordingly, tourist arrivals during the first half of the year grew by 13.1 per cent, year-on-year.

Current Transfers in the BOP

In June 2013, workers’ remittances increased by 23.3 per cent, year-on-year, to US dollars 557.6 million from US dollars 452.3 million in June 2012. Accordingly, cumulative inflows of workers’ remittances during the first half of 2013 amounted to US dollars 3,207.7 million, a rise of 9.0 per cent compared to the first half of 2012.

Financial Account of the BOP

Increased foreign investment inflows during the first half of 2013 strengthened the financial account of the BOP. FDI inflows during the first half of 2013 amounted to US dollars 540 million, an increase of 20 per cent, compared to US dollars 451 million in the first half of 2012. The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) recorded a net inflow of US dollars 12.1 million in June 2013, compared to the net inflow of US dollars 4.7 million in June 2012. On a cumulative basis, the CSE received net inflows of US dollars 120.2 million during the first half of 2013. Net inflows to the Government securities market in the first half of 2013 increased by 50.6 per cent to US dollars 664.4 million, compared to the net inflow of US dollars 441.3 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2012. Meanwhile, long-term loans obtained by the government amounted to US dollars 918.9 million during the first half of 2013, lower than the US dollars 1,086.7 million recorded in the first half of 2012. In the meantime, inflows to commercial banks during the first half of the year amounted to US dollars 664 million.

International Reserve Position

Sri Lanka’s gross official reserves stood at US dollars 6.3 billion by end June 2013 while the total international reserves, which include foreign assets of commercial banks, amounted to US dollars 7.6 billion. In terms of import cover, the gross official reserves and the total reserves of the country were equivalent to 4.1 months and 4.9 months, respectively. Accordingly, Sri Lanka’s gross official reserves have been at a satisfactory level in the first six months of 2013, in spite of outflows in terms of IMF-Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) payments, foreign debt service payments and valuation changes.

Exchange Rate Behaviour

The Sri Lankan rupee strengthened against several major international currencies during the year so far, due to cross currency exchange rate movements. By 22 August 2013, the rupee appreciated against the Japanese yen by 10.3 per cent, the Indian rupee by 13.2 per cent, the Australian dollar by 11.8 per cent, and remained flat against the Pound sterling. However, the LKR/USD exchange rate which was gradually adjusting following the initial overshooting triggered by the policy changes introduced in early 2012, indicated a modest depreciation in recent weeks due to the strengthening of the US dollar in international markets, resulting in the rupee depreciating against the US dollar by 3.5 per cent, by 22 August 2013.
http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=86368

HPP thread Gone For 2to1 split

Dear Admin

Can we do this...It will help most readers to watch the attachments in that particular thread that they are browsing ATM.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

This is my ASPI outlook.

With recent PA looking more RED in coming DAYS should find minimum support @113, BUT 127%FIB can stem the SLIDE. This is MY PRZ

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

127Fib Level = 5825-5800 on ASPI INDEX.

This can extend to a greater level.
Dont ask for Duration/Time these RED days will be, I dont know sincerely.

TAH

Sometimes we might see a SPIKE below 5800-5790 before UPSURGE

Do not mistake this for begining of BEARISH TREND, wait for the correction LEG is over around 5825-5795 with selective BUYING on Strong Fundamental counters.
They can treat you unexpected massive GAINS, once the 127 LEG is completed.

Good Luck
Ravin A.k.a TAH

The spike should indicate the correction leg is over or sentiments are beginning to change.

Consider Plantation companies as short term investments and SELL when price reaches previous HIGH.

We need to understand why ASPI is falling, is there something really wrong in our economy the way it was handled over 2 years.Its the same govt. and same people in the office.i would consider (i may be wrong) some external factors that big foreign companies wants to invest and they may be considering the price is high for them to enter.DOLLAR strengthening could be another factor, but if we look closely the DOLLAR getting strong and ASPI movement during same period one could see/track the correlation and make a judgment as to how these 2 complement or move away from each other.
I think that would be our home-work this week end.

TAH
Good Luck
TAH

Good hint TAH. I just check the movement of August. As you said ASI and $ rate are moving away from each other. Gold also following $ direction.

Updated Chart on ASI
[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Foreign Funds are restructuring ...is it due to US economy started to improve......Attacking SYRIA (limited operation or full scale) is very much on the cards, we will see OIL prices HITTING high again, GOLD recovering some of lost ground and may trade 1400-1500.
so there is lots of scenarios doing the rounds....
foreigners will start gradually seek FM such as srilanka.

I am still uncomfortable with Todays GREEN. Tomorrow expecting More RED.

I am on Side Lines.

There are few counters still attractive.

JKH -Too risky to Touch in current DOWN trend. Looks 225 on the cards.Bears Pressure too much currently.Better to wait till whole drama unfolds.

Keep Ready cash at your disposal....there will be more BUYING opportunities in coming days.

Do Not consider BUYING on MARGIN.......thinking Market will turnaround very soon......


Good Luck

Consider BUYING in stages (Min 3 stages) That will reduce your RISK and Cost could be averaged.

TAH