Different views. But I think it is not correct to say MR win because it is between UPFA and UNP this time. If MR contest separately then it will be MR, SLFP & UNP in which case we can talk about MR win or otherwise . As per my analysis below will be the likely scenario if it is between UPFA and UNP for the 22 districts.
Vanni & Jaffna - TNA
Bati, Trinco & Ampara - UNP (because of muslim parties with UNP)
Colombo, Puttlam, Kandy - UNP (with minority support)
N'Eliya, Badulla - UNP (with Digambaram support)
Kurunegala,Galle,Matara,Kegalle,Kalutara,Ratnapura,Moneragala,Anuradhapura,Polonnaruwa,Matale - UPFA (but with less majority compared to 2010)
Gampaha,Hambanthota - Tight contest is expected
Also I can expect a large amount of floating votes will go towards JVP this time who casted their votes during the last Presidential election to MR as well as MS
So in the final analysis in case UPFA wins majority seats as a single party they wont be able to clock 113 seats to form a government.
then question will be who will be going to form the government and who will be the PM. The MP group supports MR will push MR for that on the other hand MS group will push for another one. So at this point the parliament will have six groups MR group, MS group, UNP, JVP, TNA and the other minorities. So at this point UNP will be the bigger group and if MS wishes to cut the wings of MR he will surely appoint RW to the PM post getting the MS group as well as other minority groups into a national government. JVP will act the role of 'pariwasa' again. Then the opposition leader has to be appointed either from MR group or TNA and most probable it will be MR.
So I sense even if UPFA emerge as leading group in this election still the chances for MR to become the next PM is very low and RW to become the PM again is very high.
No hard rules guys this is my view.