CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000)

npp wrote:So Rajitha, you are assuming that the company will be going into reverse gear considering its growth

lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

Rajitha wrote:lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

Lets wait and see if you are right time will tell.

+rep from me for your personality + view point

Rajitha wrote:lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

I am not going to judge somebody here who says I am the man, others are idiots!

Whats innam was talking about Forward PER which always is correct as investments focus on future cashflows/ or earnings. The cashflow or eanings in the past belongs to the investors who were there at that time. Those who know little bit of valuation , knows this factor well.

So, I agree with innam. He has tried to estimates future earnings based on latest quarterly estimate. Instead somebody could have used growth rate for annaul earnings

He may be wrong in his estimate, thats a different issue. Nobody can be right in valuation. Only one can be better than any other in estimates.

sigh, you can take a horse (or a donkey) to water but you can't make it drink.

a blind statement was made that a share "will hit 150 in a few days", no facts were given just a vague statement.

any one able to read a post slowly and clearly will see that my reply to the blind statement actually shows the fact that GRAN is "relatively" the most expensive counter in the poultry sector.

i've also said
-but for the moment let's keep it simple
-that Dec is good for chicken consumption so it may not be prudent to annualize December earnings (refer @salt's post about estimates)

like i said you can take a horse (or a donkey) to water but you can't make it drink.

Rajitha wrote:lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

Rajitha,

To start off I am giving you a + Rep for you direct opinion but note my difference in opinion and my other suggestion below ...

I have taken note of your comment and it has some validity to a certain level.

On GRAN :

I am not trying to influence people to buy or at the same time demote GRAN . I am stating some facts which was not mentioned. But yes I also hold some GRAN).

When some one consider a share there maybe many sides they look at. for example

a) from a short term trader pespective based on market conditions
b) a long term investor perspective after study of future growth and market
c) from techinical point of view ..
d) Yes some might blindly follow

As Innam and your self pointed your the Financials I will not further elaborate on GRAN fundamentals .
Forum members can decide whether its is over valued or under valued. I also do not know whether this share will go further down.

However note the below facts in addition to fundamentals you mentioned..

* GRAN once traded at Rs 260 ( manipulated or not is a different story) before this huge retraction ;-)
* There were two crossing
a) 1 at around Rs 250 by perpetual if I recall right
b) another around Rs 205 by Laugf
When these people shed out large money they too must have done some research without blidly following. Also they will
not be willing to loose money in medium to long term ( wink wink)

* GRAN financial position is getting stronger.
* In the annual report please read page 3-4 by the Chariman. There are reasons for people to think this to be a potential medium to long term company. http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/671_1301398524.pdf
* GRAN is in the recovery phase after bad period ( of course as with any other company there are risk involved with GRAN too I agree. ) So for some investor this will be future growth share.

* Asha Phillips made a research Report on GRAN where they recommend GRAN as a buy
http://research.srilankaequity.com/t25-ceylon-grain-elevotors-plc-gran

People may have opinion different from yours. When there are far worse shares trading at abnormal PE and prices GRAN is not the worst. Just look at Hotel sector itself with is trading mostly at absured PEs. Why? There is a reason for it.



Remember the call you made on LDEV yesterday. To which I contributed. ( http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2846-ldev-prospect) . Even you would agree that LDEV is a not a fundamental but you had your own reasons to justify what you said.

Likewise there are GRAN believers.



Do not take what I am about to say personally. Take this as an advise from a friend. I have been following your post and observing you comment style.

First of all I admire your straight forwardness in stating you opinion. But there is a way to do it. You have a right to state your opinion but others also have the same right. At the same time we all should respect each other opinion without been nasty, as each side of opinion might have something you did not see before. If you do not like an opinion you should say in a decent way why you oppose without getting personal with words.

We cannot force people to buy or not to buy a share though our opinion might be different. It is their money and it is their call. This is a public forum. Facebook might be a little different but then again what I said above still hold.

Again I admire what you said. But kindly adjust how you reply and your choice of words so it does not attack people if their opinion is different to your. Then these - reps might go away. Statement such as "Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want!" might have some truth but is not the polite way to say it or convince someone.

I hope you understand what I am saying and take it correctly.

Vinu wrote:Following experts comments I bought at 170 for cedits.Hpoe it will go up

Vinu, honestly I don't think there is such a thing as an expert comment in the share market to straightway rise in price. ( unless leaked information before a share rise.) All share have upward and downward movements. Do some research on this and see if this is a worth counter. If so hold. Else you know what to do.

Just so that you know there was also a research report done by Asha Phillips recommednign GRAN as a buy

If earnings were analysed to convert those to PE BFL is the no.1, then TAFL and GRAN.. And at a certain discount to sector, GRAN valuations may come closer to current trading price..

But looking forward from December qtr, we see a huge revenue increase just for Tourist season and world cup time.. A lot of slaughtering might've gone in the back for facilitating the chic consumption..

So I cant actually buy the facts if some1 says GRAN would fall to 150 or below that becuz there's visible qtr to qtr growth in all poultry sector..

Further more; technically the counter is heavily oversold now..


This can go back to 160s before a run but 150 is....

K!! now i am ready again to buy GRAN more with buying power......I can hold GRAN for many years.....So no need to fear about those 150 prices........

GRAN was nearly killed today by 200K sell order. It's a massive order for a open market. even though massive amount not attacked the lower prices but recovered to 170. But close of 162.4 is discouraging. If it lost the ground next support around 144. I'll blame it to the 200K sell order.

while well come the different point view of the members as another member mention it will be nice if we ignore some words

Rajitha : - I am giving you a + Rep for you direct opinion although mine differs to yours. Do continue with this forum to make this a better place.

milanka wrote:Rajitha : - I am giving you a + Rep for you direct opinion although mine differs to yours. Do continue with this forum to make this a better place.

The TAF and GE are like husband and wife. There is always relations between price movements of these shares. AGMs too are held on the same day and one will start soon after the other one is held.

Is that because they are into same sector or any other reason??

GRAN is the holding co of TAFL

aship wrote:GRAN is the holding co of TAFL

Ah ok, great, tks a lot Aship.

Rajitha wrote:lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

Rajitha,

Appreciated your courage to explain the advantages & disadvantages of a share from a different point of view & I salute you for that. We also had same sort of arguments especially about SIRA few weeks ago.
But you cannot criticise others saying that they all are "idiots" This is not the 1st time I saw you mentioned idiots.
Cheer up buddy don't think that everybody loves plantations

UKboy wrote:

Rajitha wrote:lol about - 9 rep for stating truth and correct facts!

Well no wonder market is like this with this many idiots around who just want to hear what they want! You get + rep for making false calculations and person who correct it and state facts get huge - rep! Also for all other topcis I posted in first page! Well maybe its time it this forum also like investnow.lk from last few topics I saw !
Maybe its better to stick to facebook than an anonymous place run by idiots patting their own egos!

Anyway Go ahead with your great stocks and lets c what happens ! I'm 2 fed up trying to post sense and make this a better place!

Rajitha,

Appreciated your courage to explain the advantages & disadvantages of a share from a different point of view & I salute you for that. We also had same sort of arguments especially about SIRA few weeks ago.
But you cannot criticise others saying that they all are "idiots" This is not the 1st time I saw you mentioned idiots.
Cheer up buddy don't think that everybody loves plantations

According to Rajitha, SIRA is quite good though it's trading over PE ratio 20. But GRAN is overvalued. I don't understand.

I agree, GRAN is fairly valued. But look at the growth.

Dear Monster,
Yes that (SIRA) time he was on the positive side.Not like this time.
Anyway both are his personnal views. But I dont think is it necessary to say all people are idiots apart from him. thats all I wanna say.

I believe GRAN is good counter to buy at current prices (160-170). But GRAN will take sometimes before it goes to the next level & Q4 results will be pretty impressive. GRAN price appreciated exactly like a broiler chicken.
From Rs30 to Rs 250 in less than 6 months. A broiler chicken also can be an adult in less than 6 months( within few months).

Not like SIRA this time I can see the potential with a company. But it badly needs the stability around Rs155-175.

UKboy wrote:Dear Monster,
Yes that (SIRA) time he was on the positive side.Not like this time.
Anyway both are his personnal views. But I dont think is it necessary to say all people are idiots apart from him. thats all I wanna say.

I believe GRAN is good counter to buy at current prices (160-170). But GRAN will take sometimes before it goes to the next level & Q4 results will be pretty impressive. GRAN price appreciated exactly like a broiler chicken.
From Rs30 to Rs 250 in less than 6 months. A broiler chicken also can be an adult in less than 6 months( within few months).

Not like SIRA this time I can see the potential with a company. But it badly needs the stability around Rs155-175.

Yes, some of us sees potential in this company with long term growth. As explained in my previous post there were 2 huge crossings also which should have had a plan when they bought at much higher than the current market ( Rs 250 and 205)

It should be interesting note that GRAN involve in more than Broiler farms. Their core business is Feed Milling and Broiler Operations. TAFL contributes to their bottom line further by Poultry Breeder & Farming. If ones expect a growth in the poultry sector , one can see why GRAN can become attractive to some in the longer run.



Ceylon Grain Elevators PLC (GRAN) is a Sri Lanka-based company, is engaged in
the business of feed milling, broiler farming, poultry processing and distribution,
poultry breeder farming operations, manufacture and sale of aquatic feed, buying
and selling of poultry equipment and provision of silo and warehouse facilities and
transshipment. GRAN manufactures and distributes a range of feeds under the
PRIMA and FARMERS CHOICE brands. The Company operates poultry and
hatchery breeder farms, commercial poultry and livestock farms. Its subsidiaries
include Three Acre Farms PLC, Ceylon Livestock & Agro business Services (Pvt)
Limited, Ceylon Warehouse Complex (Pvt) Limited, Ceylon Aquatech (Pvt)
Limited and Prima Management Services (Pvt) Ltd.

Profile extract from broker report.

slstock wrote:

Yes, some of us sees potential in this company with long term growth. As explained in my previous post there were 2 huge crossings also which should have had a plan when they bought at much higher than the current market ( Rs 250 and 204)

I don't think these two companies invested blindly.
http://www.ft.lk/2011/02/11/chicks-bullish-perpetual-capital-buys-10-stake-in-grain-elevators/

http://www.ft.lk/2011/03/04/laugfs-lights-up-bourse/

POULTRY sector is very attractive at medium to long term.
GRAN,BFL,TAFL all has lot of growth potential in next few quarters specially TAFL and GRAN as BFL already showed remarkble growth last year.

Monster wrote:

slstock wrote:

Yes, some of us sees potential in this company with long term growth. As explained in my previous post there were 2 huge crossings also which should have had a plan when they bought at much higher than the current market ( Rs 250 and 204)

I don't think these two companies invested blindly.
http://www.ft.lk/2011/02/11/chicks-bullish-perpetual-capital-buys-10-stake-in-grain-elevators/

http://www.ft.lk/2011/03/04/laugfs-lights-up-bourse/

yes those are the investors who invest heavily in cse. so I do not think they invest blindly if they do not think growth prospectus of GRAN.

I m little bit confused with GRAN & TAFL..... when some kunu stocks trading @ higher prices y these stocks r nt moving ?

We dont hurry. wait, GRAN ,TAFL,BFL are gems,but we should wait.they fly as rockets

In sri lanka we expect our GDP to grow at a higher rate, so does the income of people.When the per capita income rises people tend to shift their dietary pattern from Carbohydrate rich diet(Poor man's diet) to Protein rich diet(Rich man's diet). The protein rich sources are mainly meat products,eggs and fish. At present in Sri lanka 1 kg of good quality Fish is around 800-900 or even higher, while 1 kg of chicken is around 50% of that or even cheaper and eggs also a very rich protein source available at low price.On the other hand, unlike in western countries Beef and Pork are not popular in Sri Lanka because of religious,moral beliefs(all animals are animals though).This is the Macro picture of the demand for chicken and egg in future.

All three poultry companies have showed impressive quater on quater growth since last couple of years despite season or off season, and the future is even brighter, and much brighter than ever volatile Plantation stocks,

Regarding idiots story," The greatest idiot will think he's the master and all others are idiots" (No personel offence to any one)

i dont think any poultry firm will be able to results earnings greater than their last quarter. Anualizing p/e based on the last quarter is not good. As per my little understanding p/e is not da only valuation tool. On the other hand high p/e s MAY reflect the future growth potentials , 'investor confidence' or the quality of the shares. My view is that the BFL should always have a discounted p/e than GRAN due to illiquidity. If GRAN is overvalued at this level big players will not enter da game at 200, 250 levels anyway.

GRAN,BFL & TAFL are more atractive to me. Onething I can say, If you put money for one of those stocks today. You can gain a big profit margin on next December. You can book mark my Post reply and can happy viewing it on next X'mas.

Disclouser - I have invested on BFL & GRAN

salt wrote:

innam wrote:

Rajitha wrote:IT will be even more on SALE when it hit Rs 150 in few days! will be on MEGA sale I would say after next quarterly results!
I know many here are married to the poultry industry and don't want to hear this but please wake up and do a fair calculation of this stocks PE, PEG ratios and also compare with stocks on same sector!

Given that i'm not married to the chicken sector here is a PE comp based on December quarter earnings. Keep in mind that Dec is good for chicken consumption so it may not be prudent to annualize December earnings but for the moment let's keep it simple.

........................ TAFL BFL GRAN
Price.................. 162 469 162
Dec. EPS ............ 5.29 10.24 3.42
Annualized EPS.... 21.16 40.96 13.68
P/E.................... 7.66 11.45 11.84

Agree with innam,

Yes, we are not married with any of the investments , they are alwys for sale if comes at right price.

This sector with good potential for growth , offers attractive valuations.

agree,but don't worry if this go further down,because you have fundamentally good share,remember there is many people who bought this over 250......
so considering future developments and changes in external factors,this is good........
*i may be wrong......

Going down day by day

Pichchiya wrote:Going down day by day

I sold this at 150 level .... :lol:

Waiting to collect at the bottom... When will be the bottom??
I do not understand the theory of holding on to share when it is going down and down ....
You can always collect at low levels..... Isn't it...

But it will be a disaster when everybody starts selling isn't it .........