Market crash imminent

Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

Due to following issues it may be a crash very soon



1. Exchange rate (rupee depreciation) Expected - USD @154


2. Lover GDP Rate - 4.8%

3. Interest rate expected to be increase - at least 200 points 

4. Continuous foreign net outflow.

Corporate earnings will get badly affected and future PE ratios will get higher without any effort. Higher the PER forget CSE.

Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

" DOOM monger Quibit " on the very 1st day of the year  of trading has started her usual random alibi..

just because your PMB is going lower and lower the market will not go down Miss....

it is still holidays for foreign investors to come and invest proper ( their Christmas turkey has not yet digested ).

 pls don't you spread rumors as you hold a very important position in this forum!!!.

thanks

[size=35] Ha ha ha if you see the wonder [/size]
I believe In angles has to see when I know the time

Now only 1st working day of 2016 started in America.So let we see foreign inflow tomorrow.

vic19 wrote:

Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

" DOOM monger Quibit " on the very 1st day of the year  of trading has started her usual random alibi..

just because your PMB is going lower and lower the market will not go down Miss....

it is still holidays for foreign investors to come and invest proper ( their Christmas turkey has not yet digested ).

 pls don't you spread rumors as you hold a very important position in this forum!!!.

thanks

You are blaming me for telling you bad news on the 1st day. Central Bank also giving very positive news by taking over the management of ESL.

I dont think there would be a market crash but i can see a gradual decline due to weak economic policies.

I sold my portfolio 8 months back and started buying again 2 weeks ago. Good to be back in this forum. For trading purposes this is a bad time to invest. Investing for long term purpose is ideal. Good value counters has come down.

I have collected these following counters 
APLA
AAIC 
LOFC
SAMP 
PABC
RHL.X
AEL 

I don't expect any return within one yr, these shares i bought with a 3 yr plan.
I will collect more again if the market fall below 6500.

Quibit wrote:

vic19 wrote:

Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

" DOOM monger Quibit " on the very 1st day of the year  of trading has started her usual random alibi..

just because your PMB is going lower and lower the market will not go down Miss....

it is still holidays for foreign investors to come and invest proper ( their Christmas turkey has not yet digested ).

 pls don't you spread rumors as you hold a very important position in this forum!!!.

thanks

You are blaming me for telling you bad news on the 1st day. Central Bank also giving very positive news by taking over the management of ESL.

Hi Quibit, thanks for your reply. it is appreciated very much.

however I could not agree with your observation.

in fact the central bank is even at this latter stage doing its duty to protect us, the innocent people by going public. is in it shows that there are some good people still there and save our systems.they could have easily swept this under the carpet......( may be your MR government could have done that )

I wish to take this as a good sign , that we all as to take because the central bank is taking its acts and putting things right. even at this late stage . but I accept that it is bad timing to come out with

also just because one company has done some thing wrong does not mean that all companies are same.

your words of " imminent Crash " is an ill judged wording.

come on quibit have a break if you are having a headache

any way that's is how I think

thanks

vic19 wrote:

Quibit wrote:

vic19 wrote:

Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

" DOOM monger Quibit " on the very 1st day of the year  of trading has started her usual random alibi..

just because your PMB is going lower and lower the market will not go down Miss....

it is still holidays for foreign investors to come and invest proper ( their Christmas turkey has not yet digested ).

 pls don't you spread rumors as you hold a very important position in this forum!!!.

thanks

You are blaming me for telling you bad news on the 1st day. Central Bank also giving very positive news by taking over the management of ESL.

Hi Quibit, thanks for your reply. it is appreciated very much.

however I could not agree with your observation.

in fact the central bank is even at this latter stage doing its duty to protect us, the innocent people by going public. is in it shows that there are some good people still there and save our systems.they could have easily swept this under the carpet......( may be your MR government could have done that )

I wish to take this as a good sign , that we all as to take because the central bank is taking its acts and putting things right. even at this late stage . but I accept that it is bad timing to come out with

also just because one company has done some thing wrong does not mean that all companies are same.

your words of " imminent Crash " is an ill judged wording.

come on quibit have a break if you are having a headache

any way that's is how I think

thanks

Good one vic19. Quibit and some around Quibit including the Admin are making this forum very unpleasant, unethical, non-factual and sluggish. No proper discussions on the shares and doesn't add any value. There are much better forums than this.

Don't blame Quibit for telling the truth. we have seen only the down trend throughout and nothing positive in the macro economy to see any upward trend.
People who could not sell on time like me knows the pain.
.

Some people well connected to previous regime are acting as terrorists in market today. They only see negative news and actively hiding all positive news. 

It seems like they do not have investments now and waiting for market to nosedive to enter.

Though economic indicators do not display a rosy picture in the near term, the revamp is still visible in the long run perhaps by introducing painful monetary policies.


Market concerned, it is too early to predicate market status healthy or unhealthy. My impartial opinion is “crash” or “imminent crash” not yet to be identified but the trend could be further analysed after first quarter.

@ranferdi you're an idiot to blame previous govt and supporters for the continuous decline of the share market.

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline.

ranferdi wrote:Some people well connected to previous regime are acting as terrorists in market today. They only see negative news and actively hiding all positive news. 

Why don't you come out with all the positive news that you claim to be hidden. Actively expose, Please!

The real terrorists are the people who run a country without a budget.

Budgeting = balancing income & expenses .

At the moment there are so many shares oversold. I'm glad these market manipulators keep selling as they will stuck at some point when they can't buy enough quantities for that any more. Sooner they will have have to buy and they will be the one who going to push the market up unless they take money and put in FDs. Either way its more stable market than year ago with lots of under value shares.

Company asset is more than current price and company is running in profit.Who cares about market crash.

For example ACL market value 119 but asset value more than 130 and company running in profits 600Million profit in last 6 months(Anualised EPS more than 35).It's profit increase further due to low raw material price,corporate tax reduction,it's subsisdy's progress,etc.Who cares even market price artificially go to 60..

Only those speculative and promotion share holders will be perished.

So Real investors won't worry.

Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.

Wonder if how many of these investors/traders were doing investing/trading  during the war, when bombs going on . It is much different situation now.If some one saying market is going down for genuine reason , remember, think back. Those days banks used to pay more than 15% interest. Most business made losses. Hotel sector was dead.Airport attached and Sri Lankan planes were on fire.

  If any of those saying this few hiccups are real reason for a market crash, its more like hopefully thinking or just part of manipulation . But yes, there are few reasons to market go down.But they are no way near good enough reasons to market crash.

http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_private_credit_soars_to_Rs158bn_amid_money_printing-3-3894-1.html 


Please read above article, Like i said earlier i don't see imminent market crash but i can see slow decline in the index. We are heading into BOP crisis if carry on like this.  Drastic action have to be taken by the govt to improve our fiscal and monetary position.

Sri Lanka private credit soars to Rs158bn amid money printing

ECONOMYNEXT - Sri Lanka's credit from commercial banks to private borrowers hit a never-before-seen high of 158.3 billion rupees doubling from previous high of 87.5 billion rupees hit in September, data showed, amid money printing and dollar inflows.

Credit to private borrowers rose 26.3 percent to 3,146 billion rupees in October from a year earlier.

Credit to the central government rose 32.2 billion rupees to 1,810 billion rupees, up 29.2 percent from a year earlier.

State enterprises borrowed another 5.5 billion rupees during October. State enterprise borrowing were up 31 percent to 535 billion rupees, from a year earlier.

Total credit given by the banking system to private and state borrowers rose to 196 billion rupees in October from an already high of 172.8 billion rupees.

In September and October the Central Bank rejected real bids for auctions of Treasury bills and printed money to repay them, injecting synthetic deposits for banks to give credit, drive imports and put pressure on the currency.

In September data shows that 79 billion rupees was printed. In October, outstanding central bank credit or printed money only went up 15.3 billion rupees, because Treasuries in its portfolio were sold down to sterilize proceeds of a bond sale.

Though it is not clear where most of the credit went, vehicle purchases and import credit may have played a part, analysts say.

By cutting policy rates in April and printing large volumes of money, the Central Bank has fired a consumption and import boom adding to salary increases and energy price cuts by the government which has severely damaged fiscal policy.

In December the Central Bank again did not raise policy rates, but hiked the statutory reserve ratio.

Sri Lanka's rupee has collapsed from 131 to 144 to the US dollar during the year as money was printed in large volumes, but inflation has not picked up to the same pace as global commodity prices were weak.

Bank will have a huge negative impact to their earnings due to increased reserve requirement.

jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.

Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s...

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master...

@yahapalanaya please note that i was one of the people who voted for MS n for UNP govt afterwards because of there talk. They promised so many things n delivered so less. Now regretting my decision very much. 

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

Increasing Interest rate and Brokers instructing retailers to cash out 30% of there portfolio.

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline. 

Above are the details i base my assumption on that market will slide further. Please argue on above points i mentioned. Let me know your factual information you base your theory on market will recover. If you're wise enough to do it without putting petty comments about political situation.