Investment Strategy

Kavindu 
I hope Agreement is 100%.
I am also sure bold reforms will come with GR.

Yes do not listen to teller, he talks about all this formulas but doesn't share any. He got his prediction on LOFC wrong. Even the market prediction he said to sell all shares but now the market is nicely picking up

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
I hope Agreement is 100%.
I am also sure bold reforms will come with GR.

Yeah this gov won't do crazy things , so no turn back.
yeah GR have a  back bone to do what he said. He wasn't in politics before too and he was in army too. They have some special qualities. So we can expect huge

Hahaa...Fitch cut outlook sri lanka , finance Giant ,people leasing. What else you want now?


ECONOMYNEXT- Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on People’s Bank (PB) Commercial Bank (CB) and Serendib Finance Limited to negative from stable, after a similar move on the Sri Lankan sovereign.

PB now has a long-term national rating of AA+(lka) with a negative outlook, while CB has a rating of AA(lka) with a negative outlook and Serendib A+(lka) with negative outlook.

The PB rating reflects the bank’s quasi-sovereign status as a lender to the Sri Lankan government, full state ownership and high systemic importance, Fitch Ratings said.

CB’s outlook was cut due to the sovereign credit profile which could limit the bank’s ratings in a deteriorating operating environment, the ratings agency said.

However, CB has stable earnings, a strong domestic franchise as the third largest bank and large deposits to back its liquidity profile, Fitch said.

The outlook revision on Serendib, a subsidiary of CB, was due to a potential weakening of support from the parent, Fitch said

The ratings agency said if capital buffers weaken or operating risks escalate, CB could experience a rating downgrade, while upside is limited due to the sovereign rating and the operating environment.

For Serendib, a ratings downgrade could be triggered if links weaken with the parent or if CB suffers a downgrade, while there could be a rise in ratings if Serendib could increase its importance within the group.

The full Fitch review on the three firms follows:

Fitch has also revised the Outlook to Negative from Stable on the National Long-Term Ratings of the following Sri Lanka-based banks and non-bank financial institutions and has affirmed their ratings:

– People’s Bank (Sri Lanka) (PB),

– Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC (CB) and

– Serendib Finance Limited

The revision of the Outlooks follows Fitch’s Outlook revision on the Sri Lankan sovereign (B/Negative); see Fitch Revises Outlook on Sri Lanka to Negative; Affirms at ‘B’, dated 18 December 2019.

Fitch has revised its assessment of Sri Lanka’s operating environment to ‘b’/negative, from ‘b’/stable, primarily to reflect the risk of doing business in the jurisdiction, which we believe could heighten in the medium term.

Increased macroeconomic volatility could pressure the banks’ and non-bank financial institutions’ credit profiles should the sovereign’s credit profile deteriorate further.

The operating environment has a high influence on the banks’ ratings, as it is likely to constrain their intrinsic credit profiles through its effect on financial and non-financial key rating factors.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDRS, VIABILITY RATINGS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND SENIOR DEBT

PB

PB’s National Long-Term Rating reflects Fitch’s expectation of extraordinary state support based on its quasi-sovereign status, its role as one of the key lenders to the government, full state ownership and high systemic importance.

CB
CB’s National Long-Term Rating is driven by its intrinsic financial strength and is highly influenced by our view of its operating environment. It also reflects its established domestic franchise as Sri Lanka’s third-largest bank, broadly stable earnings performance and established domestic-deposit franchise (11.6% share of banking-sector deposits at end-9M19), which underpins its funding and liquidity profile.

The Negative Outlook reflects our assessment of the sovereign’s credit profile, which could constrain the bank’s rating upon a further deterioration in the operating environment.

Serendib

Serendib’s rating is driven by Fitch’s view that its parent, CB, would provide Serendib with extraordinary support, if required.

CB’s ability to support Serendib is reflected in its credit profile, which is underpinned by its standalone strength and Serendib’s small size.

The support assessment also takes into account CB’s full ownership of Serendib, support record via multiple equity infusions and the subsidiary’s increased level of integration with its parent.

The Negative Outlook reflects the potential weakening of CB’s ability to support Serendib.

SUBORDINATED DEBT

The old-style Basel II Sri Lanka rupee-denominated subordinated debt of BOC, DFCC, CB and HNB and the Basel III compliant Tier 2 Sri Lanka rupee-denominated subordinated debt of DFCC, CB and HNB and are rated one notch below their National Long-Term Ratings to reflect subordination to senior unsecured creditors.

The Basel III compliant debentures include a non-viability trigger upon the occurrence of a trigger event, as determined by the Monetary Board of Sri Lanka.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

IDRS, VIABILITY RATINGS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND SENIOR DEBT

Changes to Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating or Fitch’s perception of state support for the banks could result in a change in the banks’ IDRs, National Long-Term Ratings and/or in the Outlook on BOC, NSB and PB.

CB

An increase in operating-environment related risks or deterioration in capital buffers could pressure CB’s rating. Upside for the rating is constrained by the sovereign rating and our assessment of the operating environment.

Serendib

Weakening links with the parent or a downgrade of CB’s National Long-Term Rating could trigger a rating downgrade on Serendib. A rating upgrade would most likely result from a significant increase in Serendib’s strategic importance to its parent through a greater role within the group.

PB:

National Long-Term Rating affirmed at ‘AA+(lka)’; Outlook revised to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable’

CB:

National Long-Term Rating affirmed at ‘AA(lka)’; Outlook revised to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable’

Basel II compliant outstanding subordinated debentures affirmed at ‘AA-(lka)’

Basel III compliant Sri Lanka rupee-denominated subordinated debentures affirmed at ‘AA-(lka)’

Serendib:

National Long-Term Rating affirmed at ‘A+(lka)’; Outlook revised to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable’ (Colombo/Jan23/2020)

up to what age you will be investing?
what is your horizon say 28 years etc (from age 27 to 55)

I'm investing until age 50. 
20 years.

ThilinaM please tell your expected annualized return and last year your return. (Please be honest)

Expected return is 20% last year return is 20+% some thing. but when market is favorable when im in profit like 15%+ and no close divident and in same period if i met a good real estate deal i will sell stocks and be into real estate. when invest inreal estate im carefull that the asset will generate some cash flow and i could by it 50% lower than current market price. when i buy the real estate i will sell that immedeately to double or quadraple price when possibe. its my secreat ceripy of investing. i have many contacts with real estate dealers and they come to my house when there is top deals.

no one will give u success secreats openly  like me. im not a KUHAKAYA thats y.

I did few real estate deals with massive profits. i use stock market for my savings account.

last month i got real estate dicitions in 1 second (my mind is super fast  ) and sold that to quadrapled price (paddy field 10 acre for 23 lac and got the crops worth 5 lac and sold for 9.5 mn) . 

when the dealer told me there is 10 acre land and location and price i did not negotiate within 1 second i told i will buy it (im that mutch of quick) . i gave money within 2 days by selling stocks had to pay interest to brokers since my sale was not realised . i have 4 broker accounts.

to do that real estate deal i sold RHL weakest stock in my portfolio at a 16% profit from 4 months (48% return annualised)   who can do it

do u know best leaders trait is telling yes or no to a deal within few minutes (since they have knoledge alredy regarding that deal just have to consider price is within there limit)

@ThilinaM
 Actually it's good. I'm extremely scared of real state investment. But you said you bought the land for 2.3 million and sold for 9.5 million it is a big profit.   But figures are a little bit unrealistic.  but I'm happy for you

2.3 million is 25% of price of some one put this land in ikman.lk. thats y it seems unrealistics. i make the profit when buying not when i do selling. selling i do it for market price. i only buy for less than 50% from current market price.
thats y i wait for that kind of opportunety

Hmm interesting. I'll comment later

I have much to go xD.

I will invest till i die. I'am 18 now.

Target is 1 Bn USD

No one knows when we die , in such mentality " i will invest till die is ok" . But if you have a natural death due to old, i believe you should away from your investment at least near to 65 Age.

Teller wrote:No one knows when we die , in such mentality " i will invest till die is ok" . But if you have a natural death due to old, i believe you should away from your investment at least near to 65 Age.  

Haha yeah. we don't know when is the time to go.

Why do you think so? 

my plan is to retire at age 45 from full time work. anyway I will invest till death though

අවු 45දී විශ්රාම යන්නයි හිතාගෙන ඉන්නෙ නමුත් ආයෝජනය නම් මැරෙනකම් කරනවා

Junior investor wrote:my plan is to retire at age 45 from full time work. anyway I will invest till death though

අවු 45දී විශ්රාම යන්නයි හිතාගෙන ඉන්නෙ නමුත් ආයෝජනය නම් මැරෙනකම් කරනවා

Haha Great.

kasun_gimhana wrote:@ThilinaM
 Actually it's good. I'm extremely scared of real state investment. But you said you bought the land for 2.3 million and sold for 9.5 million it is a big profit.   But figures are a little bit unrealistic.  but I'm happy for you

Hi @kasun i thought you exited from CSE.
Local companies will have a good time.

WHY ITS REALLY HARD TO GET OUT FROM THE MARKET AS A DAY TRADER ...
   
    SRI LANKA MARKET TRADING REALLY SLOW COMPARE TO INDIAN MARKET ....

You can not compare india vs sri lanka. India has most of the world class industries. So many companies have subsiries out side india too. Indian companies cater 1250 million population but we have 22 million. India deposit rates 1/2 compare to us. So many companies paying dividends regularly.

I think it’s better to enter to Indian market

A guy working on a scaffolding out side the Empire State building, 100^th floor, had a slip and fell out of it. Plummeting down like a stone to sure death on the concrete floor below he yelled all he could,
“99^th floor! There’s still HOPE!”
Within a fraction of a second he was hurtling past the 98^th floor.
“98^th floor! There’s still HOPE!”
And then...
“97^th floor! There’s still HOPE!”
“96^th floor! There’s still HOPE!”
“95^th floor! There’s still HOPE!”

The floors flashed past one after the other with lightning speed. The guy falling thru the air with his head down kept on yelling.,
“80^th floor! There’s still HOPE!”
“79^th floor!”
“60^th floor!”
“49^th floor!”
“THERE’S STILL HOPE!”

The numbers of the floors dwindled rapidly. Our optimistic hero kept yelling the same thing again and again. He never gave up hope. As long as he was falling, there was hope. Some miracle could happen and save him at the last second before he hit the ground.

I honestly don’t know about the final outcome of the incident. Who knows? May be a miracle occurred at the last moment. May be the almighty god extended an arm and caught him just in time. You never know. Miracles do happen…

Anyway, the moral of the story is that you should never lose hope no matter what. Similar stories of the virtures of optimism abound around us. We Sri lankans, noted for our carefree attitude of “ No problem machan!” are masters of optimism. Remember how so optimistic we were before the presidential election? How we used to clamour “Gota will win and the market will skyrocket.”

Well, Gota won but …. mmmmm…. We all know that the bear got the bull by it’s horns and every thing became blood red. Bull’s blood is all over the place. Yet, there’s still hope my friends.

The general election is just around the corner.

After the general election a new government will be formed by this party of thieves or that party of thieves. A miracle could take place. The bull may eventually rise and the bear shall see defeat. We all shall be saved at the last minute. So be optimistic like the guy who fell off the Empire state building. Never lose hope. Hope Hope Hope and Hope!
Hope against Hope. Do not panic and sell cheep at a loss. Collect all you can and keep your fingers crossed.
SOMETHING GOOD WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN! 

@King 

Damn, That statement is heart touching. I agree with you. And i'm kinda same like that guy who fell.

Hahah yeah. Good time is coming. Let bull energize. You know that Bear was ruling the area for years. That's why just the election couldn't bring back bull to the power. Bleeding will stop sooner. Even we won't able to find the way which bear runs for the life. Everything will be green and Bull will rule our stock jungle again!

Yeah everything will change. At least when comparing to that story of optimistic guy, our hope has a high possibility.

Thumbs up!

SOMETHING GOOD WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN!


Yeah

Thank you King & Kavindu.
100% agree.
It is darkest before dawn.

@KavinduTM @Kipling
Yes, Kavindu and Kip. We have to have hope no matter what's thrown our way. A day will dawn when the whole scenery turns out to be green again. Let us all stay calm and collect fundamentally sound shares when they come down. The greenhorns seem to think that it's the end of the world and panic sell like mad. We must try to show them that things are not that bleak after all. They can sell even at a little loss if scared but instead of suffering the loss and walking away from the market they should buy lower and stay put until things get better. Let's Look at the current situation as a god sent opportunity to collect. Good Luck to us all!

Kavindu 
From a previous prediction you made. 
1.market fall [market will be in a downtrend and if it fall more than 5700 level                                     (approximately 5676) , there won't be any bull market in next 6                                        months,which means it will keep falling]
                possibility :- 10%
Will this doomsday scenario unfold???
Await urgent feedback. 

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
From a previous prediction you made. 
1.market fall [market will be in a downtrend and if it fall more than 5700 level                                     (approximately 5676) , there won't be any bull market in next 6                                        months,which means it will keep falling]
                possibility :- 10%
Will this doomsday scenario unfold???
Await urgent feedback. 

There wasn't a virus case that times. So they doesn't contain the corona effect.
These days markets was driven by foreigners, so CSE is following the world markets.

We know what are the valuable shares, so good opportunities to lower the avg.

Corona is spreading. sad

King of vice wrote:@KavinduTM @Kipling
Yes, Kavindu and Kip. We have to have hope no matter what's thrown our way. A day will dawn when the whole scenery turns out to be green again. Let us all stay calm and collect fundamentally sound shares when they come down. The greenhorns seem to think that it's the end of the world and panic sell like mad. We must try to show them that things are not that bleak after all. They can sell even at a little loss if scared but instead of suffering the loss and walking away from the market they should buy lower and stay put until things get better. Let's Look at the current situation as a god sent opportunity to collect. Good Luck to us all!

Yeah. I also consider this situation as a chance. Yes best thing to do by using this chance is take our valuable shares averages to more lower levels.

Good Luck