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CITK MY calculation

+4
Chinwi
Maxime
dow
bullstreet
8 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1CITK MY calculation   Empty CITK MY calculation Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:24 am

bullstreet


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

please share your views...



                                         CITK          CITW        CITH
Total cash assets                2033mn      123mn      791mn                                  
Total liabilities                    -887mn    -2457mn    -578mn
Net cash assets                +1146mn    -2334mn   +213mn   =    -975mn
If they inject cash to CITW from CITK,CITH, then CITW total liabilities will be -975mn(reduce by 59% so it will make  86mn as finance cost for next financial year against 211mn current year’s finance cost= reduced by 125mn)

CITW:
CITW currently manage 5 star level 150 rooms with lower occupancy ratio. But they are reported growth rates range between 32%- 50%   for last 2 quarters.  

CITW               2014          2015
Gross profit     225mn         491mn   (118%)    
We can expect at least 35% growth for 2017.  It will be 662mn or above.( min+171mn)

CITH:
CITH                  2014                     2015
Gross profit        212MN                 232MN   (10%)    
So we can expect  10% for 2016 financial year. It will be 255mn(note: they closed the operation for refurbishment  last qtr)

CITK:
There are no revenue from CITK. So we can consider as 0 profit for the period.

Expenses:            
Administration  expenses                                       CITW           CITH       CITK    total
             2015                                                     295mn         122mn        0      417mn
             2016(assume cost reduce by20%)                0              350mn        0      350mn
Three managements are going to be one single management that also benefit for the acquisition.

operating expenses+ selling and distribution/marketing expenses
 CITW       CITH         CITK     TOTAL
168MN       57MN         0       225MN

After the acquisition
CITH
Profit for the period = gross profit-admin expenses -selling and marketing expenses-finance cost
(662+255) -350 -225-86mn= 256 mn
After the acquisition
No of CITH shares = 210mn

So EPS will be 256/210 = 1.22/-
If we buy CITK @ 5/- before the acquisition, then our CITH cost will be 12/-
So future CITH's PE will be 12/1.22= 9.8
                                                                 
NOTE: They can get more benefit from dollar appreciation and lower interest rate,tourist growth,occupancy growth additionally.

2CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:12 pm

bullstreet


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

EquityChamp
, chinwi, teller, stockback

3CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:22 pm

dow

dow
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Im not an expert. but I smell something positive

4CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:45 pm

Maxime


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

REEF FUTURE VALUE CAN MOVE UP

5CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:50 pm

dow

dow
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

one of my broker is selling REEF and buying  CITW.

6CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:41 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

@ bullstreet,

Thank you very much for showing us a worth looking analysis about this complicated REEF drama.

An intelligent guy can sell his CITH now and buy CITK to increase his CITH holding effortlessly.

CITH may become more valuable in future specially with increasing arrivals.

Due to other work engaged in outstations I couldn't follow or study this new development of REEF group in detail at all. Hence, I cannot make any comment useful to others at the moment.

7CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:47 pm

hiransilva23


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Im holding citk.wt z d best thing??hold it or sell???

8CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:20 am

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

I am not recommending to sell CITH. Only 534,000 shares are in the market without indirect control of REEF. If REEF group going to be pushed it will comes through CITH. Close parties hold 56,511,100 of 57,044,857 total CITH shares. Even they could buy all the 500,000 shares @40 spending just 20Mn.


Citrus Leisure Plc51,127,239*
Pan Asia Banking Corporation Plc/ C N Samaratunga5,222,268*
Ventura Crystal Investments Ltd195,116
Mr W V Jagath Pushpa Kumara96,956*
Dee Sanda Holdings Private Limited41,081
Mr M M Fuad36,959
Mr.l.S.A Perera and Mrs. R. N Perera35,130
Merchant Bank Of Sri Lanka Plc / Union Investments Ltd33,342
Mr C N Samarathunga26,088*
Mr W S E Fernando & Mrs S K Fernando26,000
Mr N L Wickramage25,140
H D K Investments (Pvt) Ltd25,001
Mr V R A S Sovis23,000
Mr K J S S Fernando22,100
Mr S H Amarasekera20,600*
Tranz Dominion L.L.C20,000
Divasa Equity (Pvt) Ltd17,971*
Sathkriya Investments (Pvt) Ltd17,760
Mr S M A T K Manchanayake16,946
Mr K P Premadasa/ Mrs H N Fernando16,160

9CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:07 am

dow

dow
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

according to the CITW voluntary offer,(they didnt announce voluntary offer for CITK) they only allocate 250mn for CITW shares buy back. is it correct??

10CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:41 am

troy

troy
Moderator
Moderator

confusing, but being onboard is worthwhile

11CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:49 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

dow wrote:according to the CITW voluntary offer,(they didnt announce voluntary offer for CITK) they only allocate 250mn for CITW shares buy back. is it correct??

No.
250 million for the entire effort.
REEF did announce how they are going to do it. First CITH ask CITW holders to swap and make an amalgamated CITH. Then it will call CITK to join.
If any shareholder refuse these two offers they will buy the shares proportionately to match 250 million.

CITK and CITW should go away from the listing thereafter.

12CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:15 am

troy

troy
Moderator
Moderator

So, CITK should follow CITW. Then, isn't CITW the most safest option??? Chances are highy that CITW getting preference considering first come first serve basis....:-)

13CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:25 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

troy wrote:So, CITK should follow CITW. Then, isn't CITW the most safest option??? Chances are highly that  CITW getting preference considering first come first serve basis....:-)


Good point !
It can become a law point too if they consider both equally .


It may be the reason for W getting higher price than K at the moment.

As per swapping offer , CITK = CITW

14CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:39 pm

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Chinwi wrote:
dow wrote:according to the CITW voluntary offer,(they didnt announce voluntary offer for CITK) they only allocate 250mn for CITW shares buy back. is it correct??

No.
250 million for the entire effort.
REEF did announce how they are going to do it. First CITH ask CITW holders to swap   and make an amalgamated CITH.  Then it will call CITK to join.
If any shareholder refuse these two offers they will buy the shares proportionately to match 250 million.

 CITK and CITW should  go away from the listing thereafter.  
am bit confused here. please help me to understand correctly
As per my understand CITH and CITK merge initially. CITK,REEF,CITH announced it on 26th. On 29th announcement came from CITW.
In that under 3. (ii) (a) it says something interesting.
If we accept the offer we will get 5 shares in CITH. If we didn't we will get 6 months volume weighted price. That will be around 3-4 for CITK. 5-6 for CITW.

15CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:59 pm

bullstreet


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

I have some CITK shares @17.5 rs from IPO.
I dont like this merging, cos if they sell CLND, then we can get 7.5 rs cash per share..
how can they buy this for 3-4rs from me??
   
so what should I do???

16CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:19 am

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

bullstreet wrote:I have some CITK shares @17.5 rs from IPO.
I dont like this merging, cos if they sell CLND, then we can get 7.5 rs cash per share..
how can they buy this for 3-4rs from me??
   
so what should I do???
Extremely sorry about what happened to you.I am sure there are many other people who bought CITK from IPO and facing same fate
Update SEC through email about your situation. CITK has a liability for IPO money. That liability should be resolved before this restructure. Otherwise this is going to be a day robbery do it in a legal way.
After the IPO , CITK hasn't done any investment in anywhere. Theoretically they can't say money is lost. Practically they has pumped money to reduce losses in CITW, REEF and DJs companies.

17CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:47 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

sapumal wrote:
Chinwi wrote:

REEF did announce how they are going to do it. First CITH ask CITW holders to swap   and make an amalgamated CITH.  Then it will call CITK to join.
If any shareholder refuse these two offers they will buy the shares proportionately to match 250 million.

  
am bit confused here. please help me to understand correctly
As per my understand CITH and CITK merge initially. CITK,REEF,CITH announced it on 26th. On 29th announcement came from CITW.
In that under 3. (ii) (a) it says something interesting.
If we accept the offer we will get 5 shares in CITH. If we didn't we will get 6 months volume weighted price. That will be around 3-4 for CITK. 5-6 for CITW.


https://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/5791475043084_.pdf

Please read para (i) and (ii)

CITH referred in (i) is the current company.  They  say clearly, first of all it will joint with CITW.

CITH referred in (ii) is the amalgamated  company (CITH + CITW)

Then only they  bring CITK into it.
Then new CITH will be CITH + CITW + CITK
Then they are going to add Passikudah Resort to it.

18CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:37 am

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Chinwi wrote:
sapumal wrote:
Chinwi wrote:

REEF did announce how they are going to do it. First CITH ask CITW holders to swap   and make an amalgamated CITH.  Then it will call CITK to join.
If any shareholder refuse these two offers they will buy the shares proportionately to match 250 million.

  
am bit confused here. please help me to understand correctly
As per my understand CITH and CITK merge initially. CITK,REEF,CITH announced it on 26th. On 29th announcement came from CITW.
In that under 3. (ii) (a) it says something interesting.
If we accept the offer we will get 5 shares in CITH. If we didn't we will get 6 months volume weighted price. That will be around 3-4 for CITK. 5-6 for CITW.


https://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/5791475043084_.pdf

Please read para (i) and (ii)

CITH referred in (i) is the current company.  They  say clearly, first of all it will join with CITW.

CITH referred in (ii) is the amalgamated  company (CITH + CITW)

Then only they  bring CITK into it.
Then new CITH will be CITH + CITW + CITK
Then they are going to add Passikudah Resort to it.
Thanks for the reply. What I though was
"
CITK and PBR will be disappeared after the merge with CITH. So CITH is mentioned as amalgamated and disappearing entities are mentioned as amalgamating.
CITW will not disappeared after this process. CITW will be fully owned company of CITH if all the CITW shareholders accepted the offer,  but it will carry on. So the relationship between them is offeror and offeree
"

19CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:21 pm

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Chinwi wrote:
sapumal wrote:
Chinwi wrote:

REEF did announce how they are going to do it. First CITH ask CITW holders to swap   and make an amalgamated CITH.  Then it will call CITK to join.
If any shareholder refuse these two offers they will buy the shares proportionately to match 250 million.

  
am bit confused here. please help me to understand correctly
As per my understand CITH and CITK merge initially. CITK,REEF,CITH announced it on 26th. On 29th announcement came from CITW.
In that under 3. (ii) (a) it says something interesting.
If we accept the offer we will get 5 shares in CITH. If we didn't we will get 6 months volume weighted price. That will be around 3-4 for CITK. 5-6 for CITW.


https://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/5791475043084_.pdf

Please read para (i) and (ii)

CITH referred in (i) is the current company.  They  say clearly, first of all it will joint with CITW.

CITH referred in (ii) is the amalgamated  company (CITH + CITW)

Then only they  bring CITK into it.
Then new CITH will be CITH + CITW + CITK
Then they are going to add Passikudah Resort to it.
CITK holds 40,413,200 shares at CLND @ 30/=  this will go to CITH after the amalgamation. cyclops cyclops cyclops

20CITK MY calculation   Empty Re: CITK MY calculation Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:31 pm

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

CITH trading @ 16/30 today with this calculation present value of CITK, CITW =  16.30 X 5 :- 12  Rs. 6/79. Very Happy Very Happy

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