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CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC (LLUB.N0000)

+65
sandamal
Dasun Maduwantha
Nandana Withanage
lion
Anushka Perz
Shiranli
ADVENTUS
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bkasun
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Inthikahb M Wazeer
engineer
thananjey
Hairoos
soileconomy
Gunther
කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020
RJ1010
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Antonym
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69 posters

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ErangaDS


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

ErangaDS wrote:2019-
EPS 8.75
DPS 7.75
1) crude oil were traded above $60/per barrel troughout 2019
2) The company has managed to increase their market share by 6-8% during the year ( currently having 44% share of lubricant market in Sri Lanka )
“After two consecutive years of de-growth, the Retail channel demonstrated a growth of 4% over prior year by introducing low end cheaper products to the market (Annual report)
3)Increased Export volumes (Bangladesh) by 18%

2020- Covid 19 & going ahead-
1) Top line could be reduced due to Covid 19 impact on the economic activities but it will off set by the reduction Crude prices(almost 50% reduction).There for very little or no impact on the bottom line.

  “Sri Lanka generated 12,46,863 MWh of electricity in January, 1,228,279 MWh in February, 1,206,069 MWh in March and 964,043 MWh in April 2020.Coal has contributed 41 per cent for the total electricity generation in Jan – Apr 2020 while Major hydro has contributed 21 per cent, and thermal oil has contributed 38 per cent.
- since being a major contributor to the thermal oil energy generators , this will help the companies revenue generation during the hard hit first quarter due to lockdown.

2) Going forward the company will get strong competition mainly from CEPETCO & LIOC, but being the market leader they are in a good position by adopting good strategies to increase the local market as well as the foreign markets.

*Dividend policy would be the most attractive factor when it comes to LLUB*
The company known for paying 💯 earnings as dividends
I’m expecting them to do the same earnings as last year,RS 8.75 & to declare a Dividend of 8.5RS ( mainly due to cash flow issues facing by its parent company in the US , due to lockdown & lower oil prices)

Currently LLUB trading @ 68 (12.5% dividend yield) where as FD rates around 7-8% .
I’m expecting LLUB to come back to its glory days with 10+ earnings  when the economic activities started to picked up(post Covid)
*This is an another share similar to RCL , has the ability to trade above 100 in the medium term.
********I’d buy this as an investment for the long term*******
Voting share (N):

Date of initial announcement:
27 Jul 2020

Dividend per share (Rs.) :
Voting :2.500

Type of dividend :
Second interim

Financial year:
31st December 2020

Shareholder approval:
Not required

XD date :
06 Aug 2020

Payment date :
17 Aug 2020

Share transfer book:
Open

Enoka Fernandez


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Thank you Eranga. your thoughts were very helpful

ErangaDS likes this post

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

when we look at the Dividend policy of LLUB with comparison to the Other Equities ,its obvious that ,LLUB worth than prevailing price even with the market drop. prices of some equities, those not paying divided are going up. this should be over Rs. 100 . since these days interest rate on Fixed Deposit is around 6 to 8 p.a ,but LLUB gives more than 10 % returned even with market drop.

csk86 and agentnrox like this post

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

most probably there should be a dividend this month  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  lets see

Antonym


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

suku502 wrote:most probably there should be a dividend this month  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  lets see

If LLUB declares 3rd Interim Dividend of Rs 2.50 per share this month, that would justify price in excess of Rs 100.

suku502 dislikes this post

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Antonym wrote:
suku502 wrote:most probably there should be a dividend this month  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  lets see

If LLUB declares 3rd Interim Dividend of Rs 2.50 per share this month, that would justify price in excess of Rs 100.
most likely that will pay , some times it would more than 2.50 .  Laughing Laughing . 3 to 4. let's see. but 2.5 is sure.

kadik


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

They will declare a dividend in next week

abey


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

100 lagawennawa

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Technical Analysis - ( Weekly Chart)


Pivot Point
 S3S2S1Pivot PointR1R2R3
Fibonacci            74.10        77.16        79.04         82.10        85.16        87.04        90.10
Classic           71.20        74.10        79.20         82.10        87.20        90.10        95.20


Moving Avarages
PeriodExponentialIndication
MA5           85.66Buy
MA10           82.02Buy
MA20           77.78Buy
MA50           72.20Buy
MA100           77.84Buy
MA200        112.20Sell


Technical Indicators
NameValueAction
RSI (14)67.196Buy
Stoch (9,6)78.29Buy
MACD (12,26)5.11Buy
ADX (14)47.52Buy
ROC37.19Buy


CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC (LLUB.N0000)  - Page 3 Llub_c10

the Weekly Chart shows upward movement . all the moving averages are indicate the Buy Signal except MA 200. other technical indicates also give the " Buy" option . RSI (14) indicates that possibility of further up however it's depend on 2 morrow.surlly it will touch 95 +, if it's possible to break  resistant level of 90.10 in Pivot Points Fibonacci R3 & Classic R2 in 2morrow.the volume should be support to break the level. all depend on 2morrow. bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

will it break the 90.10 this week ?? volume  cyclops cyclops cyclops Arrow

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Ended with 90.40 in last week End , volume was high than previous day. but still in the margin , let's see whether they declare the dividend this week , 3rd one.

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

suku502 wrote:Ended with 90.40 in last week End , volume was high than previous day. but still in the margin , let's see whether they declare the dividend this week , 3rd one.

LLUB will probably declare Dividend this week. IF the company is able to sustain quarterly Dividends of Rs 2.50 per share (like they did in July-2020), that would make it Rs. 10 per annum.

Any company that can consistently declare annual Dividend of Rs 10 would justify share price well in excess of Rs 100.

The big question therefore is: How much will they declare as 3rd Interim Dividend?

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Antonym wrote:
suku502 wrote:Ended with 90.40 in last week End , volume was high than previous day. but still in the margin , let's see whether they declare the dividend this week , 3rd one.

LLUB will probably declare Dividend this week. IF the company is able to sustain quarterly Dividends of Rs 2.50 per share (like they did in July-2020), that would make it Rs. 10 per annum.

Any company that can consistently declare annual Dividend of Rs 10 would justify share price well in excess of Rs 100.

The big question therefore is: How much will they declare as 3rd Interim Dividend?

yes. actually i hope 2.5 or more, sure they will pay. such good share to hold. even banks pay interest rate less than 8 .

64CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC (LLUB.N0000)  - Page 3 Empty CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC ((LLUB.N0000) Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:33 am

geeshanpradeep


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC is a Sri Lanka-based company engaged in the business of importing, blending, distributing and marketing of lubricant oils and greases. The Company offers passenger vehicle engine oils, over four stroke motor cycle engine oils, two stroke and outboard engine oil, general purpose automotive gear oils, automatic transmission oils and other under Havoline brand. The Company offers diesel vehicle engine oils, marine engine oils, industrial lubricants, coolants, brake fluids and specialties under Delo brand. It offers various services, such as in-service oil monitoring, drain interval optimization, lube specialist course, vehicle clinics, workshops for channel partners, systematic failure analysis expertise, technical data on fuels/fuel analysis, plant and lab visits, remote thermo meters (IR), endoscope inspections and lubrication surveys. It provides winged oil monitoring services, such as LubeWatch Oil Analysis and Fast-Fluid Analysis Service and Trending.

Chevron Lubricants quarterly financials for 30.09.2020 released today. Net profit up by 29% (Quarterly EPS - Rs.3.35/-). Also there is a pending dividend announcement. Can we expect the share price to run unnder the current situation? Any expert ideas n target price in the short term???

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Cash dividend rs3.50 announced today

agentnrox, Win Win and judecroos like this post

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

suku502 wrote:
Antonym wrote:
suku502 wrote:most probably there should be a dividend this month  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  lets see

If LLUB declares 3rd Interim Dividend of Rs 2.50 per share this month, that would justify price in excess of Rs 100.
most likely that will pay , some times it would more than 2.50 .  Laughing Laughing . 3 to 4. let's see. but 2.5 is sure.
as i predicted more than 2.5 .  Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

geeshanpradeep wrote:Can we expect the share price to run unnder the current situation?

If you observed how TPL gained yday with good financial report then yes we can expect LLUB and TKYO X+N to appreciate 8-10% today in initial trading and then settle down around +5-6% towards end of the day. Expect both counters to open trading at higher prices today. Just my thoughts.

geeshanpradeep and judecroos like this post

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

geeshanpradeep wrote:Chevron Lubricants quarterly financials for 30.09.2020 released today. Net profit up by 29% (Quarterly EPS - Rs.3.35/-). Also there is a pending dividend announcement. Can we expect the share price to run unnder the current situation? Any expert ideas n target price in the short term???

LLUB is a share that is priced based on its Dividend Yield. In the recent past, annual dividends have been hovering at around Rs 8 per share.

Based on improved operating results, future dividends could be around Rs 12 per share per year. In the prevailing low interest rate environment, the share price should rerate upwards to a figure well in excess of Rs 100 in the short term.

soileconomy likes this post

කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

THIS WEEK IT WILL TOUCH 97 . AS TARGET  Very Happy Very Happy

geeshanpradeep


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

What would be the target price range for LLUB.N  tomorrow ?? Can it hit Rs.98- 100/- p.s level.. any expert idea ??

Gunther


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

geeshanpradeep wrote:What would be the target price range for LLUB.N  tomorrow ?? Can it hit Rs.98- 100/- p.s level.. any expert idea ??

It should be trading above 100/- .Within this week hopefully.

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Antonym wrote:
geeshanpradeep wrote:Chevron Lubricants quarterly financials for 30.09.2020 released today. Net profit up by 29% (Quarterly EPS - Rs.3.35/-). Also there is a pending dividend announcement. Can we expect the share price to run unnder the current situation? Any expert ideas n target price in the short term???

LLUB is a share that is priced based on its Dividend Yield. In the recent past, annual dividends have been hovering at around Rs 8 per share.

Based on improved operating results, future dividends could be around Rs 12 per share per year. In the prevailing low interest rate environment, the share price should rerate upwards to a figure well in excess of Rs 100 in the short term.
Happy to see your post Antonym after long time.hope you will contribute more to the forum

engineer


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

XD date is on 10th Nov for 3rs div

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

engineer wrote:XD date is on 10th Nov for 3rs div

Correction:
XD Date is 10 Nov 2020 for Rs 3.50 Dividend per share (Third Interim).

engineer likes this post

Hairoos


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Is it good to enter at this time?

thananjey


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

suku502 wrote:THIS WEEK IT WILL TOUCH 97 . AS TARGET  Very Happy Very Happy
achieved the target & closed at 100.10

next  it will touch 120/- tomorrow or in couple of days

engineer


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@

Antonym  

thanks for tthanks for the correction


Well, I am not sure if it will touch 120 but there will be a spike today as well given that its 3.5% div yield even with the current market price which is very attractive so I expect a rally where this will at least settle around 105.

Inthikahb M Wazeer


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Do you think 108 is a good price to enter

abey


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

yes  may be 120

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