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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » LANKA ALUMINIUM INDUSTRIES PLC (LALU.N0000)

LANKA ALUMINIUM INDUSTRIES PLC (LALU.N0000)

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David VKMS


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Jana wrote:Seems like someone collecting by placing big sell orders..

Not Bad to buy @ 20/=
Reality is different one of the major share holder is selling another few millions (around 5 plus) will come to market be causes


You can find the name comparing with previous quarter report

Vasyan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
huge selling .....huge buying...something behind the scene. Mr. DD sold his stake because comparing with the last two Quarter reports his holding less than the previous one anyhow should be some related party play this, Yesterday some big players place millions and millions of orders on both sides, but LALU, not crap and even worth it at this price, Should pass 30/= soon, PARQ announces Rs 1.05 as a dividend, LALU announcement on the way

Jana


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
seems like nobody interest in LALU but LALU may be dumped or collect its worth

LALU give you at least a 7% to 10 % dividend

look like the trading pattern LALU goes beyond 25/= easy... 30/= level reach to NAV

LALU is the good pick compare with other value stock

MoneyLover


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
With due respect to all you opinions;

DP is continuously held around 29% of LALU even after his unsuccessful bid to take over the company 10 years ago (in 2011). He wanted to consolidate the aluminum industry where the key players are ALUM, PARQ, ALUF, and LALU, as he did in the Tile industry.  Presently, DP has control over the other player except for LALU. DP was waiting for the high time for 10 years, but finally seems he gave up the idea (coincident with the splitting) and started to sell his stake off.
Also sees that LALU is not attracted to institutional investors or HNWIs (see the top 20 shareholders list. No other except SLIC at No. 7 with a mere 0.5%.... where the public holding is 49.85%). Of course, we might able to earn something from LALU...no argument about it. 
But, it won't show an exceptional move .....

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@MoneyLover wrote:With due respect to all you opinions;

DP is continuously held around 29% of LALU even after his unsuccessful bid to take over the company 10 years ago (in 2011). He wanted to consolidate the aluminum industry where the key players are ALUM, PARQ, ALUF, and LALU, as he did in the Tile industry.  Presently, DP has control over the other player except for LALU. DP was waiting for the high time for 10 years, but finally seems he gave up the idea (coincident with the splitting) and started to sell his stake off.
Also sees that LALU is not attracted to institutional investors or HNWIs (see the top 20 shareholders list. No other except SLIC at No. 7 with a mere 0.5%.... where the public holding is 49.85%). Of course, we might able to earn something from LALU...no argument about it. 
But, it won't show an exceptional move .....

High Guys,

with shortage of foreign reserves, Government can not allow for import further more, Local manufactures are valuable at all time and this growth will come on to the normalcy and gurantee to not to reduce with highier no. of construction project being carried out now and EPS earned now could be continue up to at least year 2023-2024 at least

For a Investor Fixing of EPS after a exceptional growth like this could be a main fator for increasing it's PE LALU should trade arround RS. 30 - 40 in short & medium term for reflecting that. PARQ, ALUM & ALUF already there.

On Same Tile Sector as well RCL & LWL is highly under value & growing dividend patterns will induce high net worth investor to moving for these shares.

Invest with a good idea of that

SAGA and abey like this post

David VKMS


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Aluminum prices hit all time high in the month of May 2021 in the international Market.


The Aluminum price increase (increase in Cost of production) will have the impact on LALU's profitability. Further, Second largest share holders 19.8 Mn shares were absorbed by traders between Rs, 18 to 22 levels. 


There will be a profit taking in this week.


Retailer should be very causes with LALU 
Almost 49% public holding or 30Mn liquid shares available in the market

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
LALU until now illiquid stock but now liquid stock so more investors buying this stock..

and more than that LALU has Good EPS and NAV so it automatically takes to 30/= level by every small investor

normally they said LALU illiquid stock so  only someone needs to push up ... but now liquid stock so public investors take this to another level

LALU is not a bad stock to scare to invest

LALU should go more than 30/= soon

waiting for the Dividend also


judecroos likes this post

108LANKA ALUMINIUM INDUSTRIES PLC (LALU.N0000) - Page 5 Empty LALU - UPDATE ON EXSTING POST Mon May 31, 2021 1:22 pm

David VKMS


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@David VKMS wrote:Aluminum prices hit all time high in the month of May 2021 in the international Market.


The Aluminum price increase (increase in Cost of production) will have the impact on LALU's profitability. Further, Second largest share holders 19.8 Mn shares were absorbed by traders between Rs, 18 to 22 levels. 


There will be a profit taking in this week.


Retailer should be very causes with LALU 
Almost 49% public holding or 30Mn liquid shares available in the market

Update on existing post
I Learned from the market sources that High Net worth individual bought last few days.
According to the company management LALU use scarped aluminum (60%) as a raw material Witch will reduced the cost of production from the adverse aluminum price movement in the international market.

Equity Win


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Basketball Basketball Basketball considering above factors price will be  touch to Rs.30 level. 
@David VKMS wrote:
@David VKMS wrote:Aluminum prices hit all time high in the month of May 2021 in the international Market.


The Aluminum price increase (increase in Cost of production) will have the impact on LALU's profitability. Further, Second largest share holders 19.8 Mn shares were absorbed by traders between Rs, 18 to 22 levels. 


There will be a profit taking in this week.


Retailer should be very causes with LALU 
Almost 49% public holding or 30Mn liquid shares available in the market

Update on existing post
I Learned from the market sources that High Net worth individual bought last few days.
According to the company management LALU use scarped aluminum (60%) as a raw material Witch will reduced the cost of production from the adverse aluminum price movement in the international market.

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
It should easily touch 30

shariff


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
we hope it will move to the next level soon.

Champ888


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Before Split this was traded around 150. That means 30.

With the last 2 quater results this should easily pass 30.

David VKMS


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
 LKR
FY 2020/21LALUALUMPARQ
MPS22.613.531.6
EPS3.81.44.4
BVPS26.4519.7
PE (x)5.959.647.18
PBV (x)0.862.701.60
    
4QFY21 Annualized P/E (x)2.454.123.44

Vasyan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@David VKMS wrote:  
 LKR
FY 2020/21LALUALUMPARQ
MPS22.613.531.6
EPS3.81.44.4
BVPS26.4519.7
PE (x)5.959.647.18
PBV (x)0.862.701.60
    
4QFY21 Annualized P/E (x)2.454.123.44

Thanks David!

what do you figure out ...LALU good OR bad to buy a bit more?

David VKMS


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Vasyan wrote:
@David VKMS wrote:  

LALU is the best valuation compared to ALUM and PARQ based on present and future earnings







 LKR
FY 2020/21LALUALUMPARQ
MPS22.613.531.6
EPS3.81.44.4
BVPS26.4519.7
PE (x)5.959.647.18
PBV (x)0.862.701.60
    
4QFY21 Annualized P/E (x)2.454.123.44

Thanks David!

what do you figure out ...LALU good OR bad to buy a bit more?

Vasyan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@David VKMS wrote:
LALU is the best valuation compared to ALUM and PARQ based on present and future earnings

Thanks, David VKMS!

I am keeping some and want more .. its a good pick but just I want to confirm with someone.

thanks


ONTHEMONEY


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@David VKMS wrote:
 LKR
FY 2020/21LALUALUMPARQ
MPS22.613.531.6
EPS3.81.44.4
BVPS26.4519.7
PE (x)5.959.647.18
PBV (x)0.862.701.60
    
4QFY21 Annualized P/E (x)2.454.123.44
Hi DAVID VKMS,

Thanks for sharing, this is and EARNINGS SURPRISE for me speacially when you see FORWARD PE below 2.5x in LALU where tbe market PE is @ 14 now.

LALU should trade at least in a forward PE of 7~8x times. 

Last QUARTER EPS (MAR2021) = Rs 2.28

If LALU achieves 50% of EPS in all 3 remaining quarters;

Total forward EPS = Rs 5.7[Rs 2.28 + (1.14X3)]

Estimated Market Price = Rs 39.90(Rs 5.7 X 7)

Even if we consider the PBV it is well discounted and trading at 0.85 times. If its computed @ 1.5x the estimated market price is 39/-

Aluminum Sector OUTLOOK
--------------------------------

All ALUMINIUM companies is enjoying a heavenly DEMAND from individual customers/projects where they order goods now anticipating of a price hike in months to come. Hence, overall GROWTH OUTLOOK for aluminum and tiles VERY POSITIVE given the context where Sri Lanka has to block imports for next 9~12 months due to external trade balance crisis and to manage pressure on USD/LKR.

LALU and PARQ have high growth potential. However, LALU is the most UNDERVALUED. Most of these conpanies now enjoying PRE FILLED SALES BOOK. 

Good Luck

Note - Not a BUY or SELL RECOMMENDATION

Captain likes this post

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@David VKMS wrote:









 LKR
FY 2020/21LALUALUMPARQ
MPS22.613.531.6
EPS3.81.44.4
BVPS26.4519.7
PE (x)5.959.647.18
PBV (x)0.862.701.60
    
4QFY21 Annualized P/E (x)2.454.123.44
Hi DAVID VKMS,

Thanks for sharing, this is and EARNINGS SURPRISE for me speacially when you see FORWARD PE below 2.5x in LALU where tbe market PE is @ 14 now.

LALU should trade at least in a forward PE of 7~8x times. 

Last QUARTER EPS (MAR2021) = Rs 2.28

If LALU achieves 50% of EPS in all 3 remaining quarters;

Total forward EPS = Rs 5.7[Rs 2.28 + (1.14X3)]

Estimated Market Price = Rs 39.90(Rs 5.7 X 7)

Even if we consider the PBV it is well discounted and trading at 0.85 times. If its computed @ 1.5x the estimated market price is 39/-

Aluminum Sector OUTLOOK
--------------------------------

All ALUMINIUM companies is enjoying a heavenly DEMAND from individual customers/projects where they order goods now anticipating of a price hike in months to come. Hence, overall GROWTH OUTLOOK for aluminum and tiles VERY POSITIVE given the context where Sri Lanka has to block imports for next 9~12 months due to external trade balance crisis and to manage pressure on USD/LKR.

LALU and PARQ have high growth potential. However, LALU is the most UNDERVALUED. Most of these conpanies now enjoying PRE FILLED SALES BOOK. 

Good Luck

Note - Not a BUY or SELL RECOMMENDATION

As per My Analysis this should go beyond Rs 30/-, I think DP Qty by some party collecting before this push up

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
LALU now more people are talking about that because it is liquid stock now so more positive buyers attract this.

DD hold 3,962,999 before subdivision

after subdivisions should be he keeps (3,962,99985) = 19,814,995

but he keep end of march 12,476,365 = means (12,476,365/5)=2,495,273

so he sold 1,467,726 LALU before Subdivision means (1,467,726 *5)=7,338,630

So he holds after the march and after subdivision == 12,476,365

last three days trading Qty only  17.287 Mn  


So seems like his stake cleared now So no more to wait to run or no more scared about selling pressure

LALU is one of the good pick and potential to go up easy

whoever has this no worries keep it ..you can easily make  30%

I already have some .. I am going to buy more when I sell my PRIME LAND IPO if the price keep remain

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Jana wrote:LALU now more people are talking about that because it is liquid stock now so more positive buyers attract this.

DD hold 3,962,999 before subdivision

after subdivisions should be he keeps (3,962,99985 * 5) = 19,814,995

but he keep end of march 12,476,365 = means (12,476,365/5)=2,495,273

so he sold 1,467,726 LALU before Subdivision means (1,467,726 *5)=7,338,630

So he holds after the march or  after subdivision == 12,476,365

last three days trading Qty only  17.287 Mn  


So seems like his stake cleared now So no more to wait to run or no more scared about selling pressure

LALU is one of the good pick and potential to go up easy

whoever has this no worries keep it ..you can easily make  30%

I already have some .. I am going to buy more when I sell my PRIME LAND IPO if the price keep remain



Last edited by Jana on Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

ONTHEMONEY, judecroos and David VKMS like this post

SAGA


Moderator
Moderator
Well said Jana.yes its more active now and trading heavily

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Yes this should close to the PARQ.N Price

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Seems Like LALU selling Pressure is over

still, they can check ..more selling coming or not?

if not then LALU ready to move

LALU trading today under 1Mn so selling pressure getting Less...

LALU is one of the good pick


Captain and judecroos like this post

ONTHEMONEY


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@David VKMS wrote:
 LKR
FY 2020/21LALUALUMPARQ
MPS22.613.531.6
EPS3.81.44.4
BVPS26.4519.7
PE (x)5.959.647.18
PBV (x)0.862.701.60
    
4QFY21 Annualized P/E (x)2.454.123.44
Hi DAVID VKMS,

Thanks for sharing, this is and EARNINGS SURPRISE for me speacially when you see FORWARD PE below 2.5x in LALU where tbe market PE is @ 14 now.

LALU should trade at least in a forward PE of 7~8x times. 

Last QUARTER EPS (MAR2021) = Rs 2.28

If LALU achieves 50% of EPS in all 3 remaining quarters;

Total forward EPS = Rs 5.7[Rs 2.28 + (1.14X3)]

Estimated Market Price = Rs 39.90(Rs 5.7 X 7)

Even if we consider the PBV it is well discounted and trading at 0.85 times. If its computed @ 1.5x the estimated market price is 39/-

Aluminum Sector OUTLOOK
--------------------------------

All ALUMINIUM companies is enjoying a heavenly DEMAND from individual customers/projects where they order goods now anticipating of a price hike in months to come. Hence, overall GROWTH OUTLOOK for aluminum and tiles VERY POSITIVE given the context where Sri Lanka has to block imports for next 9~12 months due to external trade balance crisis and to manage pressure on USD/LKR.

LALU and PARQ have high growth potential. However, LALU is the most UNDERVALUED. Most of these conpanies now enjoying PRE FILLED SALES BOOK. 

Good Luck

Note - Not a BUY or SELL RECOMMENDATION

Hi all,


LALU seems to have a NEW LARGE-SCALE SHAREHOLDER entered between the price range of Rs 20 ~ 22.50 on the day the March Financials were released. 11.5Mn shares traded on 28.05.2021 and 5.6Mn shares traded on the following 2 days. 


Confidential sources noted that, a BORA INVESTOR bagged nearly 15% of the holding in LALU while DP diverted 1.0Mn crossing for him and the balance collected from the market
So, what does this mean??


Share Holding as of 31.03.2021
-------------------------------------
Issued number of shares of LALU    = 68.5Mn
Top 3 share holders
Shared held by CLOVIS COMPANY   = 34.3Mn
MR. K. D. D. PERERA                         = 12.4Mn 
MR. R.S.A. SILVA.                             =  1.0Mn Total.                                                 = 47.7Mn [Top 3 shareholders hold nearly 70%]
 
New shareholding as of 28.05.2021
Top 3 shareholders                          = 46.7Mn
Shares collected above Rs 20~24   = 17.0Mn
Total shares with top 3 and Rs 20~24 = 63.7Mn                    
Shares remaining in float                 = 4.8Mn
 
Logically, there is no reason for DP to sell entire stake since, DP has a monopoly in Aluminum industry [ALUM and PARQ owned by DP]
 
LALU market liquidity is mopped with nearly another 17Mn shares collected around Rs 20 ~ 24 last few days.

Therefore, now only 4.8Mn shares should be in the market as liquid. I am super confidence that LALU will be chased after by many soon with amazing performance [Forward PE = 2.5x | PBV 0.85x] of the company in coming quarters. 
 
Good Luck  

Captain and shan31 like this post

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Your Analysis is correct and should not mis this chance any thing below 30 is good fair price for lalu

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Both LALU, RCL are same position that EXPO held arround 10 to 15 price range with industry growth

David VKMS


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
LANKA ALUMINIUM INDUSTRIES PLC (LALU.N0000) - Page 5 Lalu10LANKA ALUMINIUM INDUSTRIES PLC (LALU.N0000) - Page 5 Lalu10

Vasyan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
LALU easily pass 30/= in the short term and still worth it at 30/=

lakmal


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Mr DP sold all shares @ 22-23 price. Then new investors bought this price.. Then Lalu share may be pass Rs 30 easily..

abey likes this post

abey


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
24......25 alien..........27......30 alien

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