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I am not here to tell you what to do. I am not here to promote or demote shares . SELL IF YOU WANT. BUY IF YOU WANT. DO NOTHING IF YOU WANT. Its your money .
But am here to tell you something more important.
When market goes up, there are 100 of promoters, Gurus , Pundits, Youtube channels and Social media pages suddenly mushrooming in only a few months. There are 1000s of followers for such pages/channels too to collectively group together to make Hay when sun shines ( chase/pump up shares and them dump).
But when market crashes there are only 2 kinds of people left
1) People who creates doomsdays to collect lower ( or for other selfish reasons spread more panic)
2) Others who panic and follow #1
"SLSTOCK'S VIEWS" page who probably spends the most time to write research based / non manipulated posts for public still only get little love for the effort. I know that. Yet, my heart told me to write this to help the few sane people left to think, though I am facing my own COVID threats and other troubles.
I am here to talk LOGICAL SENSE based on Research. I know I cannot make sense to BULLS IN CHINA SHOPS or people to not make Mountains out of Mole hills. I cannot also talk logical sense to Monkeys sitting on top of Donkeys , eating out of 3rd persons hand!
PART REASON FOR THIS MADNESS/PANIC AT CSE?
Within the last few months , if I recall right, I heard that CSE got 60% more ( CDS) accounts or something. That's simply massive. If you analyze who made those new accounts , it is an easy call.
What kind of shares were people chasing recently ? Were they Valuable dividend paying stocks or were they small / mid size shares that can be easily gang pushed to make money fast? You know the answer. EASY .
So majority of the people who got in to the stock market recently are same kind of people who entered in 2010/2011. They are mostly young , newbies who doesn't have any idea of value ( or want to learn about value) but think CSE is a FAST MONEY MAKING MACHINE. They think it is CASINO to ANNA AND PANNA.
How many GENUINE INVESTORS ARE HERE who will not follow the herd, but invest with patience? Raise your Hand ! I can guess 1 out of 20 maybe ! How many of you like /want fast money to Anna and Panna as you don't trust CSE ?
So , is it any wonder why ASI runs upwards like crazy during September, backed not by fundamentals but by mostly NON FUNDAMENTAL/LESS VALUE shares to PUMP AND DUMP ?
Guess whats happening now? The same people who worshiped online Gurus /promoters and who chased shares with no knowledge of value to get rich fast, is Panicking the same way to get out of CSE when they see some market sells off.
Then what happens. CHAIN REACTIONS.
Then what happens. The people who were initially less panic stricken starts to join the herd.
Then what happens? MORE CHAIN REACTION.
End results? We saw the real SRI LANKANISM how market crashed from 6300 to 4200 and then how market rushed from 4200 to 6000 right?
SRI LANKANS HAVE 95% literacy rate or something huh?
My Foot. What good does it do to being able to read/write ( say hey we are literate) but using NO BRAINS TO THINK.
ADD TO THAT THE REALLY POOR EDUCATION ON CORONA PEOPLE HAVE and instinct in our blood to behave like herd of cattle led to slaughter!
What comes ? EXTREMISM. IT IS CALLED EXTREMISM ( panic or hope)
WORLD CORONA SITUATION vs SRI LANKA:
1) Sri Kanka to date has : about 3500 identified cases, 13 deaths.
2) INDIA has 6,6 Millions cases to date, Deaths 103000!
India reports about 50000 to 100000 new cases per day.
Soon it will pass USA as more PCR tests are done .
WE THINK SRI LANKANS ARE MORE EDUCATED THAN INDIAN RIGHT? ( Literacy rate) Okay.
TAKE A LOOK STOCK MARKET COMPASION CHART OF CSE VS INDIA I GENERATED! WHAT DO YOU SEE?
3) I am not in Sri Lanka. I am in a Country so heavily infected by Corona. FACT! In the region I am in ( not the country but the small area within maybe 20 mile radius) I am sure there are more Corona positive cases than whole of Sri Lanka!
4) The closest country to Sri Lanka Covid detection numbers is Thailand. Thailand has 3590 cases so far . Deaths 59 ( 4 times more than SL)
Tests done : Sri Lanka roughly did 13800 test per 1 Millions Thailand : 10000 per 1 Millions population. ( Thailand total population is about 3X the size of SL)
DO YOU THINK, INDIA, THAILAND OR EVEN ANY OTHER COUNTRY THAT HAS 1000 times higher covid numbers than Sri Lanka Behaves like the MONKEYS SITTING ON DONKEYS LIKE WE DO?
DO YOU THINK JUST TURNING POSITVE ON COVID TEST IS END OF THE WORLD ? Prince Charles had it. Trump has it. So many world leaders has it.
At this rate , if one more person dies from COVID ( I hope not), CSE will go back to 4000 huh? Brilliant, CSE people. Brilliant. Give yourself a pat on the back to make Sharks richer and us smaller spats poorer by behaving like this again.
GREED, FEAR, IMMATURITY, LACK OF COVID EDUCATION , . LACK OF KNOWLEDGE ON CSE, PERSONAL SELFISH NEEDS ( to bring market down or pump it up as needed) is the full Sri Lankan package.
CSE FUNDAMENTAL SITUATION VS WORLD
I am just going let numbers talk.
Just look at the image I attached and note CSE, PER and PBV number compared to other countries. ( Thanks for Softlogic Brokers for the stat)
CSE TECHNICAL SITUATION :
In a previous update , I said " market corrections ( Red days) will be necessary as ASI 6000 came too fast, but it is important that ASI stay around or above 6000 eventually. What am saying is any Massive ASI corrections will be bad for market. I don;t expect unless some COVID issue happens."
Okay COVID issue did happen bringing out the panic stricken "dangara yaka" out of our sarongs. So it is bad for market!
Yesterday ASI closed at 462.99 down. MASSIVE! Why?
a) Was it a technical correction
b) Over-reaction to Covid panic issue.
Actually it is both combined with the new CSE Casino players I talked about before. 3 Troubles in 1.
Actually when CSE hit 6050 for the second time 2 days ago, technically it was massively massively overbought.
Sept run was too fast too far as I once said. Then OCT started too fast too.
Many shares were trading massively overbought
( even value shares like VONE, RCL were heated as per technicals )
So if one wants to see this as Technical correction, it is a very good thing for CSE as many shares that were over heated. Now heat is no more technically!
CSE and COMING DAYS?
I can do logical , fundamental and technical analysis.
But I cannot do numbskull ( people) analysis!
Out the recent Covid positive cases, of 98% of them are going to be just fine with very little or no complications. So what if even 200 more people turn positive to PCR tests. What is even a 1000 more
If Sri Lanka does more PCR tests per 1 Million population , these numbers will increase by 10s of thousands. ( Compare. Malta has tested 600000 people per 1 million. Thats 60 % of population. Okay it is very small country. But Sri Lanka 13800 per 1 Million ). I hate to think what will happen if we test more people and we find more positive cases!
Is it the End of the world being COVID positive?
Then USA , INDIA, SPAIN and BRAZIL etc would be dead and re- dead , then toasted and finally roasted.
In These countries lives are going along normal as they can with safety precautions in place . Their stock markets are not behaving like bulls in china shops like Sri Lanka either.
FINAL NOTES :
COVID turning positive is not end of the world.
USA has 2 lak deaths. India 1 lak deaths.
Do you see them behaving like MONKEYS SITTING TOP OF DONKEYS SPITTING ON THEIR OWN FACES ( BY DESTROYING THEIR COUNTRY AND MARKETS)
One would think after the 2 recent crashes at CSE, people would have learnt a lesson .NOPE. Not our people.
What can you do?
ATLEAST BE EDUCATED ABOUT COVID.
BE EDUCATED ABOUT CSE.
EDUCATE OTHERS ( share this is you like!)
TRY NOT TO JOIN PANIC STRICKENS HERDS TO CREATE BIGGER PANIC !
But am not here to tell you to buy , sell or hold.
I will tell you MARKET WILL FALL AS LONG AS THESE CIRCUS MONKEYS ARE SITTING ON TOP OF STUBBORN DONKEYS TO RUN CASINOS TO EITHER MAKE QUICK MONEY OR LOSE MONEY EVEN QUICKER.
No one bought EXPO at Rs 2 ( I did but I sold with % as it was for trade). But now it is a miraculous wonder company at Rs 12 people even chase now! If it does not atleast report Rs 0.5 eps for Sept too, this is one hell of overvalued share. Even if they do report 0.5 eps it is still overvalued.
So , PANIC TO SELL WILL BE THERE AS LONG AS HERD PANICKERS ARE THERE . THEN PANIC TO BUY THE SAME SHARES THEY SOLD HIGHER WILL COME ONE DAY.
SRI LANKA !
WELCOME TO PEOPLE LIKE NO OTHER ( people don't say LAND like no other as it is an insult to our beautiful country )