EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

TODAY 19.50 GAIN .70

tomorrow target price for expo??

20++++

All promoters exist now. But, EXPO is running. How is the gamer?

Hi all, 

EXPO dominated the market turnover everyday. During yesterday's performance, Highest Market Turnover Contribution of Rs 443Mn while JKH standing second with Rs 133Mn

I strongly believe EXPO reaping best results of expansions made in USA and EUROPE. 

I see Strong market capitalisation everyday indicating unprecedented investor interest about future earnings growth. 

Expo recoding 14%~17% of the total market capitalisation each day being in the top 5, if you look back 

I feel, there is not much opportunities for day traders or swing traders in EXPO and EXPO is witnessing some genuine consolidated investment grabs at these price levels, which I feel is healthy.

I sense people who accumulate EXPO is with a purpose and know what they do at these price levels 

Good Luck

OTM
I read CEO said JuneQ extraordinary. I saw your valuation which is excellent. Highest probability given to discount of balance 3Qs by 50%. 2 questions 
1)What eps do you expect for SepQ given that EXPO was transforming business model even before June Q. Could they not match June Q given the new business initiatives. 
2) is PER 10 reasonable given general market sentiment & specific positivism on expo 
I think it should be more. Thank You.

Hi Kipling,

Thank you for focussed reading which is important for investments in long run as about company's future earnings growth potential. Do read more and share to add value in this forum.

Taking your questions

1. I strongly feel EXPO to deliver super normal profits due to following reasons;

* Given the change in the business model even before June 2020 as you correctly identified
* Investments made to Expand the market share in USA and EUROPE which I feel are two most critical markets in Global Map
* Operating in light asset model similar to UBER, AMAZON, eBay in logistics arena Globally leading them to be more agile in business better than competition in given opportunities
* Growth in borrowings funded by the cash rich parent company in Japan facilitating significant revenue growth (SG Holdings based in Japan invests heavily for better interest rates than in Japan which is negative. EXPO also efficiency utilising this grand opportunity to fund better than Banks in Sri Lanka. So both companies in a win win deal)
* Improved cashflow led business

2. Yes. Application of Market PE multiple of 10 is risk free criteria. Transport Sector PE is much higher @ 31

Thank you

Kipling wrote:OTM
I read CEO said JuneQ extraordinary. I saw your valuation which is excellent. Highest probability given to discount of balance 3Qs by 50%. 2 questions 
1)What eps do you expect for SepQ given that EXPO was transforming business model even before June Q. Could they not match June Q given the new business initiatives. 
2) is PER 10 reasonable given general market sentiment & specific positivism on expo 
I think it should be more. Thank You.

I expect over Rs.1.00 EPS for the last quarter.

Beta1 wrote:

Kipling wrote:OTM
I read CEO said JuneQ extraordinary. I saw your valuation which is excellent. Highest probability given to discount of balance 3Qs by 50%. 2 questions 
1)What eps do you expect for SepQ given that EXPO was transforming business model even before June Q. Could they not match June Q given the new business initiatives. 
2) is PER 10 reasonable given general market sentiment & specific positivism on expo 
I think it should be more. Thank You.

I expect over Rs.1.00 EPS for the last quarter.

Well... expect less- did you see the share price?

sheildskye wrote:

Beta1 wrote:

Kipling wrote:OTM
I read CEO said JuneQ extraordinary. I saw your valuation which is excellent. Highest probability given to discount of balance 3Qs by 50%. 2 questions 
1)What eps do you expect for SepQ given that EXPO was transforming business model even before June Q. Could they not match June Q given the new business initiatives. 
2) is PER 10 reasonable given general market sentiment & specific positivism on expo 
I think it should be more. Thank You.

I expect over Rs.1.00 EPS for the last quarter.

Well... expect less- did you see the share price?

   
i analyzed all the news and details .
then i predict this.

Beta. This for September Q right?

Kipling wrote:Beta. This for September Q right?

yes

see the world trend for logistic business. EPL has done very well.

Expo will do much better than Q1 in Q2 and the future beyond looks much brighter!!! Definite Hold for sure.
https://youtu.be/byW1GExQB84

what is the max price it will reach if the EPS for Q2 is around 1.2 to 1.5 ???

Mr. X wrote:what is the max price it will reach if the EPS for Q2 is around 1.2 to 1.5 ???

this mean you know the EPS no?

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have shared in my earlier post about the estimated market value of EXPO as follows

Scenario 1 - CONSERVATIVELY POSSIBLE

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 1.33 [Assuming EXPO discounted significantly by 50% of 1Q2020 EPS on a conservative model on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.22

1Q20 Earnings adjusted for any one-off items during the period by substantially discounting on blanket basis. 


Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 22.20 [PE = 10x multiples]

Notes

1. Overall Market PE 9.82 as of 09.10.20
2. Sector PE 23.9 as of 09.10.20

However, by what I feel is the fact that above is far to conservative and shall be risk free investment

Now, I shall wanted to outline new perceptive about possible two NEW scenarios which can BEST POSSIBLE and HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC. However these prices shall be dependent on how best EXPO can deliver 2Q20 earnings

Scenario 2 - BEST POSSIBLE

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.0 [Assuming EXPO discounted by 25% of 1Q2020 EPS on a relatively conservative model on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.89

Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 28.90 [PE = 10x multiples]

Scenario 3 - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.67 [Assuming EXPO to deliver same as 1Q2020 EPS on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 3.56

Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 35.60 [PE = 10x multiples]

Therefore, I strongly feel EXPO has the capability to DELIVER super normal earnings as 1Q20 and discounting 25% of 1Q20 would be IDEAL compute the MARKET VALUE as per Scenario 2 above. Hence, Rs 28.90 would be much more REALISTIC

However, if EXPO records above super normal EPS delivered in 1Q20[more than Rs 0.89], the market value could be as per scenario 3 above.

Good Luck

DISCLAIMER - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation. Investment in CSE has its own risks and returns.

Hi Mr X,

Read the above content carefully.

Good Luck

Beta1 wrote:

Mr. X wrote:what is the max price it will reach if the EPS for Q2 is around 1.2 to 1.5 ???

this mean you know the EPS no?

No comments for this 

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have shared in my earlier post about the estimated market value of EXPO as follows

Scenario 1 - CONSERVATIVELY POSSIBLE

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 1.33 [Assuming EXPO discounted significantly by 50% of 1Q2020 EPS on a conservative model on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.22

1Q20 Earnings adjusted for any one-off items during the period by substantially discounting on blanket basis. 


Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 22.20 [PE = 10x multiples]

Notes

1. Overall Market PE 9.82 as of 09.10.20
2. Sector PE 23.9 as of 09.10.20

However, by what I feel is the fact that above is far to conservative and shall be risk free investment

Now, I shall wanted to outline new perceptive about possible two NEW scenarios which can BEST POSSIBLE and HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC. However these prices shall be dependent on how best EXPO can deliver 2Q20 earnings

Scenario 2 - BEST POSSIBLE

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.0 [Assuming EXPO discounted by 25% of 1Q2020 EPS on a relatively conservative model on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.89

Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 28.90 [PE = 10x multiples]

Scenario 3 - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.67 [Assuming EXPO to deliver same as 1Q2020 EPS on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 3.56

Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 35.60 [PE = 10x multiples]

Therefore, I strongly feel EXPO has the capability to DELIVER super normal earnings as 1Q20 and discounting 25% of 1Q20 would be IDEAL compute the MARKET VALUE as per Scenario 2 above. Hence, Rs 28.90 would be much more REALISTIC

However, if EXPO records above super normal EPS delivered in 1Q20[more than Rs 0.89], the market value could be as per scenario 3 above.

Good Luck

DISCLAIMER - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation. Investment in CSE has its own risks and returns.

Hi Mr X,

Read the above content carefully.

Good Luck

Yah.. Thanks. it gives the idea.

Mr. X wrote:

Beta1 wrote:

Mr. X wrote:what is the max price it will reach if the EPS for Q2 is around 1.2 to 1.5 ???

this mean you know the EPS no?

No comments for this 

thats enough bro 

EPS should be calculated for a year to derive PE. The above i think can be corrected. If they do Rs.1.2 EPS and contiue with the same levels for the next 2 it will be Rs.3.6 and with the R.0.89 recorded in the first quarter it will be close to Rs.4.5 EPS . Currently trading below 5 PE. if it is valued at 8 times then it should trade at Rs.36

Hi all,

It is the collection time for EXPO

Good Luck

Happy Collecting...

Mr. X wrote:Happy Collecting..

Yes. tomorrow and Friday also like this I guess.

It is time to bounce back towards next milestone guys

OTM
I read on other forum Penny Pick say expo stagnate between 16.50-19.50 till Q results out.
Also 50% of assets receivables & danger of impairment.
He also say with C19 vaccines out soon no way maintaining June Q earnings.
Await your take on these points.

Kipling wrote:OTM
I read on other forum Penny Pick say expo stagnate between 16.50-19.50 till Q results out.
Also 50% of assets receivables & danger of impairment.
He also say with C19 vaccines out soon no way maintaining June Q earnings.
Await your take on these points.

Their September Quarter will be much bigger than June quarter. Next two quarters will not be as big as the first two but it could be much bigger with the vaccine. This will be a good thing for all air freight companies. 
Expo will do much better than Q1 in Q2 and the future beyond looks much brighter!!! Definite Hold for sure.
https://youtu.be/byW1GExQB84

INVEST WISE, UR CORRECT AWARENESS IS VERY OMPORTANT


REMEBER HOWMANY TIMES THIS SHARE CAME DOWN IN THIS JOURNEY.

BUT VERY  SOLID THAN ANY MANIPULATED SHARE IN THE MARKET, COULD BE CONTINUE THAT SOME TIME MAYE BE ONE OR TWO YEAR.

https://www.aircargonews.net/business/supply-chains/biggest-product-launch-in-the-history-of-mankind-set-to-hit-general-cargo/
Interesting times for Expo till 2022!!!

Invest-Wise wrote:https://www.aircargonews.net/business/supply-chains/biggest-product-launch-in-the-history-of-mankind-set-to-hit-general-cargo/
Interesting times for Expo till 2022!!!

Hope it’ll recover from Monday.