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Ahilan007 likes this post
Ahilan007 likes this post
Kipling wrote:OTM
I read CEO said JuneQ extraordinary. I saw your valuation which is excellent. Highest probability given to discount of balance 3Qs by 50%. 2 questions
1)What eps do you expect for SepQ given that EXPO was transforming business model even before June Q. Could they not match June Q given the new business initiatives.
2) is PER 10 reasonable given general market sentiment & specific positivism on expo
I think it should be more. Thank You.
sheildskye likes this post
Well... expect less- did you see the share price?Beta1 wrote:Kipling wrote:OTM
I read CEO said JuneQ extraordinary. I saw your valuation which is excellent. Highest probability given to discount of balance 3Qs by 50%. 2 questions
1)What eps do you expect for SepQ given that EXPO was transforming business model even before June Q. Could they not match June Q given the new business initiatives.
2) is PER 10 reasonable given general market sentiment & specific positivism on expo
I think it should be more. Thank You.
I expect over Rs.1.00 EPS for the last quarter.
sheildskye wrote:Well... expect less- did you see the share price?Beta1 wrote:Kipling wrote:OTM
I read CEO said JuneQ extraordinary. I saw your valuation which is excellent. Highest probability given to discount of balance 3Qs by 50%. 2 questions
1)What eps do you expect for SepQ given that EXPO was transforming business model even before June Q. Could they not match June Q given the new business initiatives.
2) is PER 10 reasonable given general market sentiment & specific positivism on expo
I think it should be more. Thank You.
I expect over Rs.1.00 EPS for the last quarter.
Beta1 likes this post
yesKipling wrote:Beta. This for September Q right?
Mr. X wrote:what is the max price it will reach if the EPS for Q2 is around 1.2 to 1.5 ???
Hi Mr X,ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,
I have shared in my earlier post about the estimated market value of EXPO as follows
Scenario 1 - CONSERVATIVELY POSSIBLE
1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 1.33 [Assuming EXPO discounted significantly by 50% of 1Q2020 EPS on a conservative model on all remaining quarters]
Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.22
1Q20 Earnings adjusted for any one-off items during the period by substantially discounting on blanket basis.
Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 22.20 [PE = 10x multiples]
Notes
1. Overall Market PE 9.82 as of 09.10.20
2. Sector PE 23.9 as of 09.10.20
However, by what I feel is the fact that above is far to conservative and shall be risk free investment
Now, I shall wanted to outline new perceptive about possible two NEW scenarios which can BEST POSSIBLE and HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC. However these prices shall be dependent on how best EXPO can deliver 2Q20 earnings
Scenario 2 - BEST POSSIBLE
1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.0 [Assuming EXPO discounted by 25% of 1Q2020 EPS on a relatively conservative model on all remaining quarters]
Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.89
Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 28.90 [PE = 10x multiples]
Scenario 3 - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC
1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.67 [Assuming EXPO to deliver same as 1Q2020 EPS on all remaining quarters]
Total Est. EPS = Rs 3.56
Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 35.60 [PE = 10x multiples]
Therefore, I strongly feel EXPO has the capability to DELIVER super normal earnings as 1Q20 and discounting 25% of 1Q20 would be IDEAL compute the MARKET VALUE as per Scenario 2 above. Hence, Rs 28.90 would be much more REALISTIC
However, if EXPO records above super normal EPS delivered in 1Q20[more than Rs 0.89], the market value could be as per scenario 3 above.
Good Luck
DISCLAIMER - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation. Investment in CSE has its own risks and returns.
Beta1 wrote:Mr. X wrote:what is the max price it will reach if the EPS for Q2 is around 1.2 to 1.5 ???
this mean you know the EPS no?![]()
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Beta1 likes this post
Yah.. Thanks. it gives the idea.ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi Mr X,ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,
I have shared in my earlier post about the estimated market value of EXPO as follows
Scenario 1 - CONSERVATIVELY POSSIBLE
1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 1.33 [Assuming EXPO discounted significantly by 50% of 1Q2020 EPS on a conservative model on all remaining quarters]
Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.22
1Q20 Earnings adjusted for any one-off items during the period by substantially discounting on blanket basis.
Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 22.20 [PE = 10x multiples]
Notes
1. Overall Market PE 9.82 as of 09.10.20
2. Sector PE 23.9 as of 09.10.20
However, by what I feel is the fact that above is far to conservative and shall be risk free investment
Now, I shall wanted to outline new perceptive about possible two NEW scenarios which can BEST POSSIBLE and HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC. However these prices shall be dependent on how best EXPO can deliver 2Q20 earnings
Scenario 2 - BEST POSSIBLE
1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.0 [Assuming EXPO discounted by 25% of 1Q2020 EPS on a relatively conservative model on all remaining quarters]
Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.89
Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 28.90 [PE = 10x multiples]
Scenario 3 - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC
1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.67 [Assuming EXPO to deliver same as 1Q2020 EPS on all remaining quarters]
Total Est. EPS = Rs 3.56
Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 35.60 [PE = 10x multiples]
Therefore, I strongly feel EXPO has the capability to DELIVER super normal earnings as 1Q20 and discounting 25% of 1Q20 would be IDEAL compute the MARKET VALUE as per Scenario 2 above. Hence, Rs 28.90 would be much more REALISTIC
However, if EXPO records above super normal EPS delivered in 1Q20[more than Rs 0.89], the market value could be as per scenario 3 above.
Good Luck
DISCLAIMER - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation. Investment in CSE has its own risks and returns.
Read the above content carefully.
Good Luck
thats enough broMr. X wrote:Beta1 wrote:Mr. X wrote:what is the max price it will reach if the EPS for Q2 is around 1.2 to 1.5 ???
this mean you know the EPS no?![]()
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Yes. tomorrow and Friday also like this I guess.Mr. X wrote:Happy Collecting..
RJ1010 likes this post
Their September Quarter will be much bigger than June quarter. Next two quarters will not be as big as the first two but it could be much bigger with the vaccine. This will be a good thing for all air freight companies.Kipling wrote:OTM
I read on other forum Penny Pick say expo stagnate between 16.50-19.50 till Q results out.
Also 50% of assets receivables & danger of impairment.
He also say with C19 vaccines out soon no way maintaining June Q earnings.
Await your take on these points.
Kipling and judecroos like this post
Hope it’ll recover from Monday.Invest-Wise wrote:https://www.aircargonews.net/business/supply-chains/biggest-product-launch-in-the-history-of-mankind-set-to-hit-general-cargo/
Interesting times for Expo till 2022!!!
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