The SIGNS of SRI LANKAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY

ONTHEMONEY · 1 The SIGNS of SRI LANKAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:09 am

ONTHEMONEY

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Hi all,

As per the remittances RECORDED in JANUARY 2021 which is USD 675Mn which is a GROWTH of 16.25%. compared to 2020. A very strong GROWTH. If we maintain $675Mn each month, the total comes to USD 8.1bn.

Sri Lanka needs USD 7Bn for 2021 as remittances to manage the country's exchange. So, as of January 2021, SRI LANKA is on CORRECT PATH towards managing the debt.

I see, many are passively making statements without analysing where the country stands right now. Whatever said and done, the country it self have to stand from its legs.

As I have noted above, Sri Lanka will be able to manage it and is on right track of RECOVERY. I expect the EXPORTS and IMPORT numbers to RECORD SIMILAR VALUES as above.

I expect some POSITIVE NEWS in the month of March 21.

1. An INTEREST RATE CUT

2. Positive OUTCOME of UNHRC council ending February 2021

3. Super CORPORATE EARNINGS GROWTH

4. More IMPORT BARRIERS for NON ESSENTIAL ITEMS to manage imports

5. INCREASE in EXPORT BASKET

The above will BOOST CSE to next level in MONTHS to come.

Good Luck

ONTHEMONEY · 2 Re: The SIGNS of SRI LANKAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:32 am

ONTHEMONEY

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Hi all,

The following is the INFLOWS and OUTFLOWS which I expect for Sri Lanka to manage exchange for FY 2021 and SL will be able to manage it without much of a doubt

How the Govt. is expecting to manage the debt payments:

Inflows 2021:
Export target: USD 13 bn
Remittances (net): USD 7 bn
Tourism receipts (net): USD 1.5 bn
Port City construction inflow (net): USD 1 bn
China currency swap: USD 1 bn
Total inflows during the year: USD 23.5 bn

Outflows 2021:
Imports: USD 19 bn
Debt payments: USD 4.5 bn
Total outflows: USD 23.5 bn

Thus, reserves position at the end of 2021 will be at USD 4.7 bn. But due to mismatch of inflow and outflow timing, reserves may go up or down from the year end estimate during the year.

Good Luck

Kipling · 3 Re: The SIGNS of SRI LANKAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:47 am

Kipling

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OTM
Excellent posts. This is what the doomsayers want us to ignore.

samaritan · 4 Re: The SIGNS of SRI LANKAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:01 am

samaritan

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Thank you OTM for the excellent work that will serve as an eyeopener and alleviate baseless fears of the investor community at large.

judecroos · 5 Re: The SIGNS of SRI LANKAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:52 pm

judecroos

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samaritan wrote:Thank you OTM for the excellent work that will serve as an eyeopener and alleviate baseless fears of the investor community at large.

Samaritan we can't predict this Sri Lankan market,I think the charts and analysis failed to guess this manipulation with a strong help by SEC and CSE. Do not trust these people, everybody can see the damage they did to this market now. Even though all the companies showed their best results the Sri Lankan market (CSE) in big manipulators hands. The SEC letter fiasco drama witness all. They did it purposely to help them. These people do only harm to the Sri Lankan reputation in international investor community.

dayandacool · 6 Re: The SIGNS of SRI LANKAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:39 pm

dayandacool

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ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

The following is the INFLOWS and OUTFLOWS which I expect for Sri Lanka to manage exchange for FY 2021 and SL will be able to manage it without much of a doubt

How the Govt. is expecting to manage the debt payments:

Inflows 2021:
Export target: USD 13 bn
Remittances (net): USD 7 bn
Tourism receipts (net): USD 1.5 bn
Port City construction inflow (net): USD 1 bn
China currency swap: USD 1 bn
Total inflows during the year: USD 23.5 bn

Outflows 2021:
Imports: USD 19 bn
Debt payments: USD 4.5 bn
Total outflows: USD 23.5 bn

Thus, reserves position at the end of 2021 will be at USD 4.7 bn. But due to mismatch of inflow and outflow timing, reserves may go up or down from the year end estimate during the year.

Good Luck

The numbers are fine. However we need to continue with the limited imports strategy + expect EU/US will not have any sanctions against us in upcoming UN sessions.

As of last year statistics, our main export partners were EU/US and India. All 3 of them are in loggerheads with the government for reasons well known to us all.

EU 36.73% USA 22.15% India 12.37% were the export contribution last year from the aforesaid countries.

No need to be negative but playing safe is a better bet than being over confident.

I expect the imports to remain same while fluctuations may occur in terms of Exports based on several criteria. It's all well and good as far as we could keep pace with the export industries such as textile, Tea, rubber and fish.