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ASPI to dip below 9000

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DeepFreakingValue

DeepFreakingValue
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

ASPI to dip below 9000 Scree156

Lack of foreign investments and economic uncertainty resulting from IMF reforms has depressed the investor sentiments in the Colombo Stock market. SOE privatisation would be the key turning point for the next phase of growth for the stock market. #Srilanka

Sri Lanka stock market has witnessed a downward trend and exceptionally low turnovers ever since the relief package was approved by the board of IMF on 20th March 2023.

According to the latest announcement, privatisation of SOE's will likely to take minimum 8 months whereas some economic analysts predicts that the worst of IMF reforms is yet to affect the stock market and the overall economy of Sri Lanka.

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reyaz

Post Wed Apr 05, 2023 10:31 am by reyaz

IMF and George Sorros money is in the country ready to pump the counters and now you tell this???

Beyondsenses likes this post

avatar

Post Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:41 pm by God Father

Implementation of Timely & Credible Structural Reforms Vital for Sri Lanka to Reset its Course: World Bank

Sri Lanka’s heightened fiscal, external, and financial sector imbalances and its fluid political situation pose significant uncertainty for the country’s economic outlook, says the World Bank in its twice-a-year update, underscoring the need to address the root causes of the country’s economic crisis and build a strong and resilient economy to prevent future crises.

Released today, the Sri Lanka Development Update (SLDU), Time to Reset projects the country’s economy to contract by 4.3 percent in 2023, as demand continues to be subdued, job and income losses intensify, and supply-side constraints adversely affect production.

“The economic crisis in Sri Lanka has had deep impacts with over half a million jobs lost and 2.7 million additional people falling into poverty between 2021 and 2022,” said Faris H. Hadad-Zervos, World Bank Country Director for Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. “The prolonged recovery from the scarring effects of this crisis in addition to a slow debt restructuring process, limited external financing support, and an uncertain global environment pose significant risks to the country’s economic growth.”

The economy will continue to face significant challenges in 2023 and beyond. A lower-level external trade equilibrium could have contagion effects on domestic trade, economic activity, jobs and incomes. Combined with adverse effects from revenue-mobilization efforts, which are essential for regaining fiscal sustainability, poverty projections could worsen. The financial sector needs to be managed carefully, given rising non-preforming loans and large public sector exposures.

Mitigating the impacts on the poor and vulnerable remains critical during the adjustment. Reducing poverty requires better-targeted social assistance, an expansion of employment in industry and services, and a recovery in the real value of incomes. However, strong and effective implementation of the government’s reform program, supported by financing from international partners, could boost confidence and attract fresh capital inflows that are key to improve job prospects and restore livelihoods.

“The current crisis is not a temporary liquidity shock that can be resolved by external financing support from outside. Instead, the crisis provides a unique opportunity to implement deep and permanent structural reforms that may be difficult in normal circumstances,” added Hadad-Zervos. “Sri Lanka can use this opportunity to build a strong and resilient economy.”

The SLDU is a companion piece to the latest South Asia Economic Focus, Expanding Opportunities: Toward Inclusive Growth, which projects regional growth to average 5.6 percent in 2023, a slight downward revision from the October 2022 forecast. Growth is expected to remain moderate at 5.9 percent in 2024, following an initial post-pandemic recovery of 8.2 percent in 2021.

The report notes that to go from recovery to sustained growth, South Asia needs to ensure economic development is inclusive. The region has among the world’s highest inequality of opportunity. Between 40 and 60 percent of total inequality in South Asia is driven by circumstances out of an individual’s control such as place of birth, family background, caste, ethnicity, and gender. Intergenerational mobility is also among the world’s lowest. Data highlighted in the report shows that less than 9 percent of individuals whose parents have low levels of education reach education levels of the upper 25 percent. Such disparities lead to differences in access to jobs, earnings, consumption, and welfare and to calls for redistributive policies.

The report recommends continuing to improve the quality of primary education and expanding access to secondary and higher education, evaluate and strengthen affirmative action policies targeted to “low opportunity” groups, and policies to improve the business climate for small and medium enterprises, who account for the bulk of job opportunities for the less well-off. In addition, reducing barriers to labor mobility can have a powerful equalizing impact as urban areas tend to offer more opportunities for social mobility.

https://www.lankabusinessonline.com/implementation-of-timely-credible-structural-reforms-vital-for-sri-lanka-to-reset-its-course-world-bank/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon

Beyondsenses

Post Wed Apr 05, 2023 2:27 pm by Beyondsenses

reyaz wrote:IMF and George Sorros money is in the country ready to pump the counters and now you tell this???
If the money is there no need to panic  Rolling Eyes Wink Very Happy

avatar

Post Wed Apr 05, 2023 4:10 pm by Biggy

Some amazingly well managed companies are going to give their holders massive returns either through capital gains or dividends .. even if the index plummets to zero its not a reflection on the companies performance but rather of the ignorant panic of sellers .

reyaz likes this post

avatar

Post Thu Apr 27, 2023 10:12 am by God Father

Market has breached 9000

Beyondsenses

Post Thu Apr 27, 2023 12:21 pm by Beyondsenses

God Father wrote:Market has breached 9000
කස්ටිය රනිල් කියපු දේ miss interpret කරලා market වට්ටලා කුණු කොල්ලෙට එකතු කරලා ඊළඟ bull ran එකේ profit කරන්න සෙට් වෙලා ඉන්නේ ... තව සතියක් අල්ලගෙන හිටියොත් ගොඩ යන්න පුළුවන් ෆෙන්ස්  Rolling Eyes Wink Basketball cheers 


ASPI to dip below 9000 710

avatar

Post Sat Apr 29, 2023 9:02 am by D.G.Dayaratne

Beyondsenses wrote:
God Father wrote:Market has breached 9000
කස්ටිය රනිල් කියපු දේ miss interpret කරලා market වට්ටලා කුණු කොල්ලෙට එකතු කරලා ඊළඟ bull ran එකේ profit කරන්න සෙට් වෙලා ඉන්නේ ... තව සතියක් අල්ලගෙන හිටියොත් ගොඩ යන්න පුළුවන් ෆෙන්ස්  Rolling Eyes Wink Basketball cheers 

Pl do not misinterpret Ranil's statement.  The real meaning is he will not INTERPERE STOCK MARKET.HE WILL ALLOW MARKET FORCES TO RUN IN THE STOCK MARKET.



ASPI to dip below 9000 710

avatar

Post Mon May 22, 2023 12:04 pm by CSE1986

WE DONT KNOW WHEN LOCAL DEBT STRUCTURE WILL ANNOUNCE. AFTER ANNOUNCED ASI WILL COME TO 5500?

avatar

Post Mon May 22, 2023 8:21 pm by Amarapala

If at all, DDR should impact the financial sector which is only like 10-15% of the total market cap. Financial institutions have already factored in a default in to their financials and market too has adjusted more than whats required.

Interest rates are coming down, so equity markets will become attractive. 

Overall market is in oversold territory and offers good buying opportunity. Therefore i doubt ASI should fall any further unless for irrational thinking of CSE panic sellers.

kasunkumara likes this post

avatar

Post Sat May 27, 2023 11:50 pm by kasunkumara

according to the idea of some equity market experts that i spoke to recently, the next few years (at least until the end of 2025) are going to be very difficult for cse investors. according to them, in order to witness at least a slight bull run, the current interest rates should come down to at least 10% and apparently its not going to happen anytime soon unfortunately.

avatar

Post Mon May 29, 2023 12:04 pm by CSE1986

kasunkumara wrote:according to the idea of some equity market experts that i spoke to recently, the next few years (at least until the end of 2025) are going to be very difficult for cse investors. according to them, in order to witness at least a slight bull run, the current interest rates should come down to at least 10% and apparently its not going to happen anytime soon unfortunately.
yes I too have same opinion  this year goes saying debt structure 2024 bankrupt country should give away past and present loan going to obtain IMF for settle. It is not easy way can out like Masrom suddenly says our politicians. Man election President, parliment and local govt, in waiting list

kasunkumara likes this post

ChatGPT

Post Mon May 29, 2023 1:05 pm by ChatGPT

Try www.chat2find.com to get an answer to your queries. Below is the answer I got from Chat2find about Colombo Stock Market. You can any question about any sri lanka company. You van also ask Chat2find to write a research report on any Sri Lanka Company.

See Below:
ASPI to dip below 9000 Screen13

ResearchMan

Post Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:50 pm by ResearchMan

Artificial Intelligence(AI) Vs. Human Intelligence(Hi)

I am using my HI to pick shares.

avatar

Post Fri Jun 02, 2023 5:32 am by kasunkumara

looks like we can witness some positives in the coming months. interest rates should go down further. it is the ideal time to buy some shares since the prices are at a very low level.

ResearchMan

Post Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:54 am by ResearchMan

kasunkumara wrote:looks like we can witness some positives in the coming months. interest rates should go down further. it is the ideal time to buy some shares since the prices are at a very low level.
KK


Falling interest rates is some relief for high-debt companies. I own low-debt companies. Home work, Home work, Home work. Have a idea what to buy and what not to buy. 
 
I wait until traders come to me and when they are tired.

kasunkumara likes this post

ResearchMan

Post Mon Jun 19, 2023 8:16 am by ResearchMan

ResearchMan wrote:
kasunkumara wrote:looks like we can witness some positives in the coming months. interest rates should go down further. it is the ideal time to buy some shares since the prices are at a very low level.
KK


Falling interest rates is some relief for high-debt companies. I own low-debt companies. Home work, Home work, Home work. Have a idea what to buy and what not to buy. 
 
I wait until traders come to me and when they are tired.
When everyone is selling, it's great time to buy. In this week also traders may sell stocks. When every one is buying, it's great time to sell.

kasunkumara likes this post

avatar

Post Thu Jun 22, 2023 12:36 am by ChooBoy

thank you for good stock market advise. I sold when IMF come and bought below 9000 ASPI. now I sell again..

kasunkumara likes this post

SamJay1974

Post Fri Jun 23, 2023 3:20 pm by SamJay1974

This time it'll be heading towards 10,000 mark steadily. Hopefully.
In my opinion, interest rates should go further down.

kasunkumara likes this post

ResearchMan

Post Sun Jun 25, 2023 7:53 am by ResearchMan

ResearchMan wrote:
ResearchMan wrote:
kasunkumara wrote:looks like we can witness some positives in the coming months. interest rates should go down further. it is the ideal time to buy some shares since the prices are at a very low level.
KK


Falling interest rates is some relief for high-debt companies. I own low-debt companies. Home work, Home work, Home work. Have a idea what to buy and what not to buy. 
 
I wait until traders come to me and when they are tired.
When everyone is selling, it's great time to buy. In this week also traders may sell stocks. When every one is buying, it's great time to sell.
Brace for volatility even in a single day.

avatar

Post Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:14 pm by blindhog

SamJay1974 wrote:This time it'll be heading towards 10,000 mark steadily. Hopefully.
In my opinion, interest rates should go further down.
agree with you. i forecast inflation to hit single digits by July. CBSL began pivot. reducing rates by 250 basis points. we will see massive rates cut soon. good times for primary dealers. 

ASPI to dip below 9000 A6rbTbR4l24lAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC

DeepFreakingValue

Post Mon Jul 03, 2023 2:30 am by DeepFreakingValue

ASPI to dip below 9000 Cse10

Stock Market investors have yet another opportunity to exit Colombo Stock market after the Covid 19 pandemic which caused economic crisis and sovereign debt default in Sri Lanka prior to the implementation of the IMF proposals and resultant market impact.

Tombstones

- Covid19 Start: February 2020
- Covid19 End: December 2021
- Economic Crisis Start: January 2022
- Debt Default: April 12, 2022
- IMF Staff Level Approval: September 2022
- IMF Board Approval: March 20, 2023
- GOSL Parliament Approval: June 28 2023
- IMF 1st Review: September 2023
- IMF 2nd Review: March 2024

How Stock market reacted to IMF Programme
From September 2021 to Present

The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on March 20, 2023, following discussions that ended on September 1, 2022, with the officials of Sri Lanka on economic developments and policies underpinning the IMF arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on March 6, 2023.

ASPI to dip below 9000 Cse_co11

IMF program will be subject to semiannual reviews with performance criteria, the MPCC bands, and indicative targets set out in Table 1 attached to this MEFP and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU).

Completion of the first and second reviews will require observance of the quantitative performance criteria for end-June 2023 and end-December 2023, respectively, as well as continuous performance criteria, as specified in Table 1 attached to this MEFP.

The reviews will also assess progress toward observance of the structural benchmarks specified in Table 2 attached to this MEFP. The first two reviews of the program will take place on or after September 1, 2023 and March 1, 2024, respectively. We request the use of IMF financing for budget support and, in this respect, will finalize a Memorandum of Understanding between the CBSL and the Ministry of Finance on responsibilities for servicing financial obligations to the IMF.

IMF: Future Implications

ASPI to dip below 9000 Scree333
ASPI to dip below 9000 Scree334

ASPI to dip below 9000 Scree335
ASPI to dip below 9000 Scree336

Sri Lanka: Proposed Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets

ASPI to dip below 9000 Scree337


How Covid19 affected Sri Lanka
From: February 2020 to December 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic in Sri Lanka is part of the ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV virus. The first case of the virus in Sri Lanka was confirmed on 27 January 2020, after a 44-year-old Chinese woman from Hubei, China, was admitted to the Infectious Disease Hospital in Angoda, Sri Lanka. As of 1 September 2021, a total of 462,767 COVID-19 cases had been recorded in the country, 386,509 patients had recovered from the disease, and 10,140 patients had died.

ASPI to dip below 9000 Covid_10

The first reported case involving a Sri Lankan outside the country was reported in Italy on 3 March 2020. As of 23 March 2020, forty-five quarantine centres had been built in the country by the Sri Lanka Army as a preventative measure in an attempt to stop the spread of the pandemic. Nearly 3,500 people were placed under quarantine in 45 quarantine centres, including 31 foreigners from 14 countries. As of 25 March 2020, Sri Lankan authorities tracked down over 14,000 people who had come into contact with identified patients, and ordered those people to self-quarantine. As of 16 April 2020, Sri Lanka was named the 16th highest-risk country for contracting the virus.[9] In April 2020, Sri Lanka's response to the pandemic was ranked as the 9th best in the world.

Although Sri Lanka was successful in handling the first wave of the pandemic, the government's failure to handle the second and the third waves of the pandemic have caused a spike in COVID-19 deaths since November 2020. There was a sudden increase in COVID-19 cases after the relaxation of health restrictions during the Sinhala and Tamil New Year in April 2021. The highly contagious Delta variant has been responsible for the considerably high fatality rate in the country since August 2021. As of August 2021, Sri Lanka became the country with the fourth-largest number of daily deaths in the world by population just behind Georgia, Tunisia, and Malaysia. Government negligence in implementing a lockdown, negligent behaviour of the general public, and teachers' protests have all contributed to the record spike of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country.

On 20 August 2021, government imposed a ten-day lockdown island-wide to curb the spread of COVID-19 cases.[ The decision to lockdown the country came following the immense pressure from the health authorities and the political parties who demanded complete lockdown after Sri Lanka surpassed 1,000 deaths over the course of eight days.It is believed that the COVID-19 cases in the country are underreported by the officials and allegations regarding the manipulation of details regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in the country were also raised.

Some businesses imposed a voluntary lockdown for a period of 10 to 14 days during the early parts of August when the government refused to impose a lockdown due to the worsening situation of the economy. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka raised interest rates in August 2021, and Sri Lanka became the first nation in Asia to tighten the monetary policy during the pandemic era. On 27 August 2021, the government extended the lockdown to 6 September 2021 as the daily death toll surpassed 200 for the first time since the pandemic began.

reyaz

Post Mon Jul 03, 2023 7:52 am by reyaz

Beyondsenses wrote:
God Father wrote:Market has breached 9000
කස්ටිය රනිල් කියපු දේ miss interpret කරලා market වට්ටලා කුණු කොල්ලෙට එකතු කරලා ඊළඟ bull ran එකේ profit කරන්න සෙට් වෙලා ඉන්නේ ... තව සතියක් අල්ලගෙන හිටියොත් ගොඩ යන්න පුළුවන් ෆෙන්ස්  Rolling Eyes Wink Basketball cheers 


ASPI to dip below 9000 710

This forum has less than 1/8 the influence of the market any way, market will pickup and all of you would have to cry like babies when the prices reach for the stars!!! The country as got the president for aligning resources and manpower to get the economy on track and much more. You are jus blinded by irresponsible opposition and media to see this. By the time you realize that I am right, train would have left the station.

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