what about PAP.N ?

StocksWatch · 26 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:41 am

StocksWatch

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Gaja wrote:http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/2331300446799_1040.pdf - According to this Announcement 60 Million Shares represent 12%, that mean total issue quantity 500 Million Shares

Do we know who is the seller?

mono · 27 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:26 am

mono

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npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...?

Some one bought 60 million shares at 4.5. that's not a promotion it's a take over.

xmart · 28 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:42 am

xmart

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mono wrote:

npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...?

Some one bought 60 million shares at 4.5. that's not a promotion it's a take over.

@npc86,
270 Mn cost promotion????. why those ppl thinking like this?
if something goes opposite with their intention, called it promotion or manipulation.
mind your language friend.

smallville · 29 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:08 am

smallville

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We only have data till 30th Sep.. and rains hit the country in Nov-Dec period and then here and there intermittently too..
Let me take Seyon's hard work for this analysis..These financials will be the base..

PAP (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

Starting of tourists season, worldcup, would've increased the power consumption in country,
in line with this a revenue growth could easily be expected from power companies.
On that basis if we assume an increase in revenue for the next 2 qrts, due to last rainy season,
again there could possible be a hindrance to the expected growth. Therefore; both these factors could balance the revenue at same level
So my openion is; its safe to assume at least revenue levels would remain same for the last 6 months too.
So I'm adjusting the orinigal expected value with the new value;

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----51,580,401

Total -----103,160,802

Issued qty ------500,000,000
Annualized EPS - 131580401/500000000 = 0.21

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

Trading at a PE of - 4.20/0.21 = 20

P&E sector PE - 55.90

I persoally think this value is too high for the sector hence lets take half of it to be in safe side, say 28;
Hence an anticipated price level could be 28*0.21 = 5.88

So if the current weather conditions and industry out look remains same,
I think Seyon's prediction of price levels 5.20 - 5.50 is feasible in near future..

For your analysis pls..

seyon · 30 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:14 am

seyon

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smallville wrote:We only have data till 30th Sep.. and rains hit the country in Nov-Dec period and then here and there intermittently too..
Let me take Seyon's hard work for this analysis..These financials will be the base..

PAP (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

Starting of tourists season, worldcup, would've increased the power consumption in country,
in line with this a revenue growth could easily be expected from power companies.
On that basis if we assume an increase in revenue for the next 2 qrts, due to last rainy season,
again there could possible be a hindrance to the expected growth. Therefore; both these factors could balance the revenue at same level
So my openion is; its safe to assume at least revenue levels would remain same for the last 6 months too.
So I'm adjusting the orinigal expected value with the new value;

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----51,580,401

Total -----103,160,802

Issued qty ------500,000,000
Annualized EPS - 131580401/500000000 = 0.21

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

Trading at a PE of - 4.20/0.21 = 20

P&E sector PE - 55.90

I persoally think this value is too high for the sector hence lets take half of it to be in safe side, say 28;
Hence an anticipated price level could be 28*0.21 = 5.88

So if the current weather conditions and industry out look remains same,
I think Seyon's prediction of price levels 5.20 - 5.50 is feasible in near future..

For your analysis pls..

Thanks smallville for the analysis... did u analyze the dividend payout... It is about 50%

I think they will come out with same ratio.... I am waiting for their financial...

Happy Trading..

smallville · 31 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:21 am

smallville

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Oh I dint see it evn Sad

Their EPS is still low.. Is there any impact? Will they announce a div?
My thinking is div should be used for retained earning for their growth..

BTW, where did u find the financials, I searched the ticket but no data available ;(

seyon · 32 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:27 am

seyon

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smallville wrote:Oh I dint see it evn
Their EPS is still low.. Is there any impact? Will they announce a div?
My thinking is div should be used for retained earning for their growth..

BTW, where did u find the financials, I searched the ticket but no data available ;(

Dividend payout ratio..... ( Extract from Prospectus)

Before the IPO...

2009/10 EPS Rs.255..... DPS Rs.135 Div pay out ratio 53%
2008/09 EPS Rs.311..... DPS Rs.173 Div pay out ratio 56%

Still they did not release their financial after IPO.... This dividend details i extract from prospectus.....

Happy Trading....

silentsahan · 33 For your analysis pls.. Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:37 am

silentsahan

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smallville wrote:We only have data till 30th Sep.. and rains hit the country in Nov-Dec period and then here and there intermittently too..
Let me take Seyon's hard work for this analysis..These financials will be the base..

PAP (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

Starting of tourists season, worldcup, would've increased the power consumption in country,
in line with this a revenue growth could easily be expected from power companies.
On that basis if we assume an increase in revenue for the next 2 qrts, due to last rainy season,
again there could possible be a hindrance to the expected growth. Therefore; both these factors could balance the revenue at same level
So my openion is; its safe to assume at least revenue levels would remain same for the last 6 months too.
So I'm adjusting the orinigal expected value with the new value;

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----51,580,401

Total -----103,160,802

Issued qty ------500,000,000
Annualized EPS - 131580401/500000000 = 0.21

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

Trading at a PE of - 4.20/0.21 = 20

P&E sector PE - 55.90

I persoally think this value is too high for the sector hence lets take half of it to be in safe side, say 28;
Hence an anticipated price level could be 28*0.21 = 5.88

So if the current weather conditions and industry out look remains same,
I think Seyon's prediction of price levels 5.20 - 5.50 is feasible in near future..

For your analysis pls..

seyon · 34 PAP.... Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:24 am

seyon

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Hi Guys

Just check out the link... this express PAP is relatively oversold at current scenario...

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?ticker=PAP:SL

Happy Trading

smallville · 35 Re: what about PAP.N ? Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:26 am

smallville

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seyon wrote:Hi Guys

Just check out the link... this express PAP is relatively oversold at current scenario...

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?ticker=PAP:SL

Happy Trading

I'd say that's a bit of out from the oversold region...
We could've bought this around 3.80 to be in safe side.. However looking at the volume on last trading day and the future outlook for the company, larger parcels being bought, etc... its still safe to assume entering at 4.10-4.20 wont do any harm if you keep it till at least next financials out..
I strongly believe 5.20 - 5.50 in near future is feasible Wink

seyon · 36 Sri Lanka power demand hits new peak Thu Mar 24, 2011 7:29 am

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Sri Lanka power demand hits new peak

Mar 23, 2011 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's night power demand hit a new peak load of 2,000 MegaWatts on Tuesday amid hot seasonal weather and growing usage, in a day that the utility officially commissioned a new 300 MegaWatt coal plant.
Power demand hit a peak of 1,999 MegaWatts at 7.30 in the evening not counting power generated by mini-hydro plants which can go up to 200 MegaWatts.

State-run Ceylon Electricity Board cannot immediately count the power generated from private mini-hydros which are not controlled centrally.

"We usually have high demand especially in March due to hot weather," state-run Ceylon Electricity Board chairman Vidya Amarapala said

"We have touched 2,000MW mainly to cater to the air conditioning load. We have also been increasing rural electrification which has increased the number of customers."

The CEB has a goal of electrifying most of the villages by 2012.

Amarapala said hotels were also using more power for air conditioning with high occupancy partly due to foreign fans that came to watch the cricket Word Cup series.

Tuesday had also seen the higher daily energy generated of 32.75 GigaWatt hours. Industry analyst say mini-hydro plants may have generated another one or two GigaWatt hours.

The CEB has also been giving power to the North and East of the country which emerged from a 30-year war in 2009.

Amarapala said the utility had enough installed capacity to meet the demand, which is expected to go up. On Tuesday the utility commissioned a 300 MegaWatt coal plant - the country's first.

Amarapala said the cost of generating a unit from the coal plant was 9.00 rupees a kilowatt hour at the latest coal prices.

This compares with just an energy cost of about 17 rupees for diesel combined cycles, around 9.40 for residual oil. The CEB sells power to small domestic users for only 3.00 rupees a unit.

marketsee · 37 Re: what about PAP.N ? Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:22 am

marketsee

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where is the PAP Q report?????

Chinwi · 38 Re: what about PAP.N ? Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:11 pm

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With the new thinking about nuclear power sector after Japanese debacle the world may go further for fossil energy.

This may increase the value of renewable energy like hydro power and PAP is one of best in the current market prices. Their balance sheet after IPO and future plans are attractive.

Good investment for long term with lesser risk of falling value.
Effect of coal plants is low for debt free well managed hydro power when the cost of production of coal nearing 10 Rupees per unit.

StocksWatch · 39 Re: what about PAP.N ? Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:19 pm

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No doubt...definitely valuable counter to have in your portfolio for long term benefit.

gayannadeeka · 40 PAP Sat Mar 26, 2011 11:19 pm

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StocksWatch wrote:No doubt...definitely valuable counter to have in your portfolio for long term benefit.

Thats true....

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what about PAP.N ?

26 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:41 am

StocksWatch

27 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:26 am

mono

28 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:42 am

xmart

29 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:08 am

smallville

30 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:14 am

seyon

31 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:21 am

smallville

32 Re: what about PAP.N ? Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:27 am

seyon

33 For your analysis pls.. Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:37 am

silentsahan

34 PAP.... Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:24 am

seyon

35 Re: what about PAP.N ? Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:26 am

smallville

36 Sri Lanka power demand hits new peak Thu Mar 24, 2011 7:29 am

seyon

37 Re: what about PAP.N ? Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:22 am

marketsee

38 Re: what about PAP.N ? Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:11 pm

Chinwi

39 Re: what about PAP.N ? Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:19 pm

StocksWatch

40 PAP Sat Mar 26, 2011 11:19 pm

gayannadeeka

41 Re: what about PAP.N ?

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