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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000)

LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000)

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76LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Apr 08, 2011 2:57 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

1.
The immediate reason for going LOLC down is its earning quality and downgrading debt rating based on double leverage.

Can any of you explain how name change to Holding address above issues? Isn't it the same LOLC?

2.
Further it is no more a Finance company. A jack of all trades.

Investors attracted to its finance business which will be shifted to LOFC. Once LOFC listed people may forget LOLC. This may explain why we saw large sell orders for LOLC in last couples of days (an information leakage?)?

In addition to that widely diversified companies are subjected to a "Conglomeration discount" in calculating its fair-value.

77LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Apr 08, 2011 3:00 pm

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@asitha wrote:lolc will be moved to 1xx

How come? Can you explain?

78LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Apr 08, 2011 3:05 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics


Is this the reason for momentum?

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/7361302176811_378.pdf


LOLC group to reach a phase of exponential growth

79LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Apr 08, 2011 5:27 pm

gann


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:

1.
The immediate reason for going LOLC down is its earning quality and downgrading debt rating based on double leverage.

Can any of you explain how name change to Holding address above issues? Isn't it the same LOLC?

2.
Further it is no more a Finance company. A jack of all trades.

Investors attracted to its finance business which will be shifted to LOFC. Once LOFC listed people may forget LOLC. This may explain why we saw large sell orders for LOLC in last couples of days (an information leakage?)?

In addition to that widely diversified companies are subjected to a "Conglomeration discount" in calculating its fair-value.

According to the following article LOLC is already in the top list of diversified companies in par with JKH with a impressive growth of Assets and ROE.
http://www.ft.lk/2011/04/08/welcome-the-new-conglomerate/

Any comments?

80LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Apr 08, 2011 8:37 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:
@Academic wrote:

1.
The immediate reason for going LOLC down is its earning quality and downgrading debt rating based on double leverage.

Can any of you explain how name change to Holding address above issues? Isn't it the same LOLC?

2.
Further it is no more a Finance company. A jack of all trades.

Investors attracted to its finance business which will be shifted to LOFC. Once LOFC listed people may forget LOLC. This may explain why we saw large sell orders for LOLC in last couples of days (an information leakage?)?

In addition to that widely diversified companies are subjected to a "Conglomeration discount" in calculating its fair-value.

According to the following article LOLC is already in the top list of diversified companies in par with JKH with a impressive growth of Assets and ROE.
http://www.ft.lk/2011/04/08/welcome-the-new-conglomerate/

Any comments?

It is bit difficult to predict how market would react. However, FT article clearly shows ROA of LOLC is well below two largest diversifieds, JKH and Carson. In addition to that part of reported earnings of LOLC was due to SEYB investment reclassification (1.7 billion). This may have revised by 31 march as SEYB doped to 75. So I cant see a impressive ROA with LOLC. IMHO recent acquisitions made LOLC's ROA stagnant (As Fitch Ratings pointed out in below link).

See http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=926577279 for more details.

I think LOLC wants to remove this diluting effect of acquisitions from its main business. That is why they are going to list Financial companies. Thus, financial subsidiaries would be attractive compared to LOLC in terms of ROA , ROE etc, as all dilutions are accumulated at holding company (LOLC) level.

This is not an investment advice or recommendation

81LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:09 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:Thanks for your post academic. I find myself often talking about QoQ growth but didn't bother to check it with LOLC because YoY was pretty impressive. Having said that I don't think the price will decline, this stock seems to have good support at the 136 levels. At the same time these earnings wouldn't justify a breakout.



I think most of the investors have collected at higher levels, many are not prepared to dispose at low levels.
With these new developments on an up beating market .. LOLC is an attractive stock. It has a good support level,
LOLC is a very familiar stock for most investors.

82LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:32 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Aamiable wrote:
@tubal wrote:Thanks for your post academic. I find myself often talking about QoQ growth but didn't bother to check it with LOLC because YoY was pretty impressive. Having said that I don't think the price will decline, this stock seems to have good support at the 136 levels. At the same time these earnings wouldn't justify a breakout.



I think most of the investors have collected at higher levels, many are not prepared to dispose at low levels.
With these new developments on an up beating market .. LOLC is an attractive stock. It has a good support level,
LOLC is a very familiar stock for most investors.

Aamiable my friend, that's an old post that I made before the 136 support line was breached. The 116.5 support line was all set to be breached today but the released an advertisement through the CSE newswire and retailers rushed to rescue the big boys.



Last edited by tubal on Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:34 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Support was not at 117 as incorrectly stated)

83LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:38 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

I collected at higher levels several months ago

84LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Apr 09, 2011 12:00 am

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I do not see any logic in the claims of "support levels" either for an index or stock. For example someone may say ASI support at 7330 or LOLC at 116.5. What these numbers can do with fair value of an index or stock?

It is the demand and supply that determine price. Even ASI doped to 7330, if further selling occurs, it will further go down. The same is true for a stock. So the key for determining share price is predicting demand and supply, not naively hang on to some arbitrary numbers (7330, 166.5 etc).

85LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Apr 09, 2011 1:25 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
@gann wrote:
@Academic wrote:

1.
The immediate reason for going LOLC down is its earning quality and downgrading debt rating based on double leverage.

Can any of you explain how name change to Holding address above issues? Isn't it the same LOLC?

2.
Further it is no more a Finance company. A jack of all trades.

Investors attracted to its finance business which will be shifted to LOFC. Once LOFC listed people may forget LOLC. This may explain why we saw large sell orders for LOLC in last couples of days (an information leakage?)?

In addition to that widely diversified companies are subjected to a "Conglomeration discount" in calculating its fair-value.

According to the following article LOLC is already in the top list of diversified companies in par with JKH with a impressive growth of Assets and ROE.
http://www.ft.lk/2011/04/08/welcome-the-new-conglomerate/

Any comments?

It is bit difficult to predict how market would react. However, FT article clearly shows ROA of LOLC is well below two largest diversifieds, JKH and Carson. In addition to that part of reported earnings of LOLC was due to SEYB investment reclassification (1.7 billion). This may have revised by 31 march as SEYB doped to 75. So I cant see a impressive ROA with LOLC. IMHO recent acquisitions made LOLC's ROA stagnant (As Fitch Ratings pointed out in below link).

See http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=926577279 for more details.

I think LOLC wants to remove this diluting effect of acquisitions from its main business. That is why they are going to list Financial companies. Thus, financial subsidiaries would be attractive compared to LOLC in terms of ROA , ROE etc, as all dilutions are accumulated at holding company (LOLC) level.

This is not an investment advice or recommendation

If one was treating LOLC purely as financial company before this announcement then LOLC share price was bordering fair value I'd say. But if one wishes to now place LOLC has holding company with the future expectation of growth from its acquisitions /subsidiaries I guess it would trade at premium like the diversified sector. Gann reference to ft.lk article would help to identify where LOLC stands in diversified.

I guess most of this affect will be in the heard mentality in the present situation. I do not know abotu short term, but I certainly believe LOLC can be a good one for Long term ( 1-2 years) if one has the patience.

86LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Apr 09, 2011 6:51 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
I do not see any logic in the claims of "support levels" either for an index or stock. For example someone may say ASI support at 7330 or LOLC at 116.5. What these numbers can do with fair value of an index or stock?

It is the demand and supply that determine price. Even ASI doped to 7330, if further selling occurs, it will further go down. The same is true for a stock. So the key for determining share price is predicting demand and supply, not naively hang on to some arbitrary numbers (7330, 166.5 etc).

academic, these are not arbitrary numbers. These are numbers deducted using well tested and established theories. Being an academic, I am surprised that you are rejecting them without doing proper investigation into them.

87LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Apr 09, 2011 6:57 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
If one was treating LOLC purely as financial company before this announcement then LOLC share price was bordering fair value I'd say. But if one wishes to now place LOLC has holding company with the future expectation of growth from its acquisitions /subsidiaries I guess it would trade at premium like the diversified sector. Gann reference to ft.lk article would help to identify where LOLC stands in diversified.

As academic pointed out, if it's a diversified holdings company it should trade at a big discount not at a premium. Unfortunately in Sri Lanka people have the impression that such companies should trade at a premium. This is a false impression created largely buy stock brokers who are always giving buy recommendations to JKH, HAYL and LOLC no matter what their valuations are.

Globally such companies have been out of favour for a long long time. Now many corporate raiders are buying their and breaking them up. Sometimes I wonder if the reason Mr Perera bought into HAYL is for the same reason.

88LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:01 am

Soundchips


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
@Academic wrote:
I do not see any logic in the claims of "support levels" either for an index or stock. For example someone may say ASI support at 7330 or LOLC at 116.5. What these numbers can do with fair value of an index or stock?

It is the demand and supply that determine price. Even ASI doped to 7330, if further selling occurs, it will further go down. The same is true for a stock. So the key for determining share price is predicting demand and supply, not naively hang on to some arbitrary numbers (7330, 166.5 etc).

academic, these are not arbitrary numbers. These are numbers deducted using well tested and established theories. Being an academic, I am surprised that you are rejecting them without doing proper investigation into them.




Retailers believe that LOLC can reach new heights.

When the expectations are high prices can go up.
Management and the group is reorganizing businesses for maximum benefits then those figures can become a reality...

89LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Apr 09, 2011 2:21 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
@Academic wrote:
I do not see any logic in the claims of "support levels" either for an index or stock. For example someone may say ASI support at 7330 or LOLC at 116.5. What these numbers can do with fair value of an index or stock?

It is the demand and supply that determine price. Even ASI doped to 7330, if further selling occurs, it will further go down. The same is true for a stock. So the key for determining share price is predicting demand and supply, not naively hang on to some arbitrary numbers (7330, 166.5 etc).

academic, these are not arbitrary numbers. These are numbers deducted using well tested and established theories. Being an academic, I am surprised that you are rejecting them without doing proper investigation into them.

It is not good to reject something without reasoning out. Support and resistance levels are belongs to technicians. If I'm not mistaken these trading strategies first discussed by Brock, Josef, and LeBaron (1992). The broader conception is similar to RSI (Relative Strength Indicator).

The point that I missed to write in the above post is the fact that CSE is not going on a random work and momentum is present (Pathirawasam and Weerakoon Banda, 2008;Samarakoon, 2010). Further, Abeysekera (2001) points out CSE has not even the weak-form efficiency.

Thus, many technical indicators based on law of random numbers are not applicable to CSE. To be honest, I have not tested the applicability of support and resistance levels here. But based on above reasoning I cant agree with the usage of technical indicators in CSE.

Anyway, you may be disagree with me. However, by agreeing on disagreement, I suggest you to wind up this argument. Since none of us are in a position to prove our stance with research evidence.

Further, I'm getting busy with some works and limit my participation in the forum till June.


References

Abeysekera, S.P, (2001). Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 8(1-2), 249–261.

Brock,W., Lakonishok, J., and LeBaron,B., (1992). Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns, The Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764.

Pathirawasam and Weerakoon Banda, (2008). Profitability of Momentum and Contrarian Strategies in the Colombo Stock Exchange, Proceedings of Fifth International Conference of Business Management, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Sri Lanka, 27-31.

Samarakoon, L.P., (2010). Asymmetric investor behavior between buyside and sellside: Evidence from investor classes in the Sri Lankan stock market, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 20(2-3), 93-113.

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Asi14

I am sharing with you my real time ASI 5 min chart used for short term trading. Look at that resistance at 50% mark(7420) and other important psychological levels.
The fact that we couldnt break 7420 in march and still finding it today implies that the market conditions remain the same. But the fact that its holding the ground is encouraging and needs to be monitored for any new developments.

91LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue May 24, 2011 12:54 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
O-key.. where is LOLC march 31st report? i can't find it at CSE website. i want to see their QtoQ performance.

92LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue May 24, 2011 11:01 pm

ISURU

ISURU
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@xmart wrote:O-key.. where is LOLC march 31st report? i can't find it at CSE website. i want to see their QtoQ performance.
to be finalized

93LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Wed May 25, 2011 11:27 pm

dr kiru005

dr kiru005
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@ashlee wrote:
I think the guy who converted 100% LOLC is gonna be a real winner now..

Cool Wink study

Itz me Very Happy Cool [/quote] did you do it in real life too ?

94LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Wed May 25, 2011 11:43 pm

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dr kiru005 wrote:
@ashlee wrote:
I think the guy who converted 100% LOLC is gonna be a real winner now..

Cool Wink study

Itz me Very Happy Cool
did you do it in real life too ?
[/quote]

What the hell is this? What winner?

95LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Wed May 25, 2011 11:47 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@xmart wrote:O-key.. where is LOLC march 31st report? i can't find it at CSE website. i want to see their QtoQ performance.

It will be a huge achievement if they can improve Q4 profits by at least 12.5%.

96LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Mon May 30, 2011 1:34 pm

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@UKboy wrote:
@xmart wrote:O-key.. where is LOLC march 31st report? i can't find it at CSE website. i want to see their QtoQ performance.

It will be a huge achievement if they can improve Q4 profits by at least 12.5%.


Has anybody noticed now LOLC is trading at 115 (52 week low) ? Is it good idea to buy some quantity now in order to lower the average price ?

BTW - Is there any particular reason for this drop ?




97LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue May 31, 2011 6:15 pm

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
LOLC REsults 31st March 2011

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/378_1306839860056.pdf

98LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue May 31, 2011 6:46 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
eps is 8 for end of the year.. so trailing PER around 120/8 = 15

99LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Tue May 31, 2011 8:52 pm

gayannadeeka


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Today 113.90 wt will tomorrow ?????

http://nadeekacf@facebook.com

100LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Jun 03, 2011 2:54 pm

Revolution


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Today 112.60.. what will it go next ??

101LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Fri Jun 03, 2011 8:50 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
109.50

102LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty LOLC price Sat Jun 11, 2011 10:39 am

asitha


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
why LOLC price extremely drooped down???
in this year also they have profits.last year they have gained over 9 bll profit but still FS not published.i have shares at a price of 115.i have to deside wether is it keeping worth or not..

103LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Jun 11, 2011 10:54 am

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I have a whole bunch of shares bought at 138.. No worries that will do more in the future.. Itz a long term investment..Collect some more at these levels if you can.

104LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:46 am

amibroker


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@asitha wrote:why LOLC price extremely drooped down???
in this year also they have profits.last year they have gained over 9 bll profit but still FS not published.i have shares at a price of 115.i have to deside wether is it keeping worth or not..

What they have achieved is not that important, whether they can sustain that growth and revenue levels are much more important than historical earnings. So I think short term LOLC will be stagnent or slip to Rs 100 level.. This is just my view...
Also see below Post by Chinw in another thread on LOLC

Re: Confifi Hotels to announce the managing partner soon, mulls revaluation of properties
Post by Chinwi on Thu Jun 09, 2011 10:28 +
According to their announcements, they have 1 1/2 year close down of 3 hotels from this month.
I mentioned somewhere else that this may affect LOLC earnings and share price. Apart from income loss I think they cannot stop the salaries of the staff during this period.

Somehow, when considered their other businesses this may not a big burden for them and I think LOLC may bounce at 110.00

The latest news coming to me from close links of mine (from Dubai based well known hotel interior giant) that LOLC have asked the contractors to complete the work before the next season. The experts in this field say no one will drag the work for 1 and 1/2 years.

That means LOLC may open the best hotels in the golden mile sooner than anticipated. [b]

105LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000) Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:49 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
LOLC is long term term share. If you can buy forget about it for atleast 1 year without worrying about short term price fluctuation ( possibly several years) there is no issue with this. It is an investment Looking at their diversification and strategic moves ,and capacity for revenue genration in the future I too have faith in LOLC. This share need to consolidate after a massive rise last year and a split.

To some it might be question why they shut down their hotels for 1.5 years which will reduce bottom line revenue. To some this might be a negative. To a long term investor acually this is great foresight by LOLC to aspire for the best and not settle for short term minimums. After the refurbishment they are looking at higher class sustained revenues than doing patch work.

Also note that Mr Nanayakkara in the board also is a high networth investor. Their management team has also a quite impressive background and capacity.

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