Pivot Point Indicator

LSE wrote:Summary

EOD we have seen the behavior of  ASPI followed  the pivot point analyze  accordingly and after finalization of the index it's added another -7.47 to it's count & stated closing value as  5,744.89.

Remember, trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment, any way here I'd like to point out the gap between the calculated pivot
point and the closing values is continuously decreasing day by day this mean we can expect a green market in a near future.

According to the above calculated points today also we can see a good support between S1,S2 range and further we can expect a green day too...

Note

According to the current pattern we can hope for a big green day withing the next few days... most probably Tomorrow or on Friday...

Today analyze will coming soon...

Thank You...

R4 5,824.84
R3 5,800.47
R2 5,776.10 --->> Resistance Level 2
R1 5,760.50 --->> Resistance Level 1

PP 5,751.73

S1 5,736.13 --->> Support Level 1
S2 5,727.36 --->> Support Level 2
S3 5,702.99
S4 5,678.62

LSE wrote:Check the give values with CSE graph. Again ASPI hits accordingly at the first support level.
http://www.cse.lk/home.do


   

R4 5,824.84
R3 5,800.47
R2 5,776.10 --->> Resistance Level 2
R1 5,760.50 --->> Resistance Level 1

PP 5,751.73

S1 5,736.13 --->> Support Level 1
S2 5,727.36 --->> Support Level 2
S3 5,702.99
S4 5,678.62

Actual Market Value for S1 is

S1 --->>  5,742.42  [6.29 points different]

smallville wrote:
I dont think u can guess a fall like this with the pivots... Just mentioning Smile


See where ASI is - 5,686.99, 57.9 points down Evil or Very Mad

wellappili wrote:How many times I told to stop this.Market want work for techniques and what you people try to do is fit some technique to market or a share.Technical Analysis is  the last thing important in CSE.That TAH guy also try to dothis when one pattern fail he  match another then another ....so on.Must be with huge loss now.

Behave as a gentlemen.    

wellappili wrote:That TAH guy also try to dothis when one pattern fail he  match another then another ....so on.Must be with huge loss now.

wellappili wrote:How many times I told to stop this.Market want work for techniques and what you people try to do is fit some technique to market or a share.Technical Analysis is  the last thing important in CSE.That TAH guy also try to dothis when one pattern fail he  match another then another ....so on.Must be with huge loss now.

LSE wrote:
@smallville
You should keep in mind that pivot points are short-term trend indicators, useful for only one day until they need to be recalculated.

How many times it works accordingly...?

Note

If it's fail need to be recalculate to find the next point. Here I'm posting the information for daily basis. Many times it works accordingly. Please try to understand about the concept and if you are not agree don't  worry.      

Thank You.

wiki wrote:What is the effect of odd lot trading it can drag indices down....so what is the effect of this on technical analysis

See the ASI chart ...Sudden drop after 2 pm



See the trading of NEST



This is CTC

smallville wrote:

LSE wrote:
@smallville
You should keep in mind that pivot points are short-term trend indicators, useful for only one day until they need to be recalculated.

How many times it works accordingly...?

Note

If it's fail need to be recalculate to find the next point. Here I'm posting the information for daily basis. Many times it works accordingly. Please try to understand about the concept and if you are not agree don't  worry.      

Thank You.

LSE, I appreciate your hard work.. But as u can imply, pivots only calculate a certain, very small range of S & R.. Last time market fell badly but pivots didnt give a clear picture where it could stop. But if you analyse S & R with trend-lines, Fibs and other methods, it can give a more close picture..
The only concern in this;
What if we buy thinking the support is at around a certain level and ASI dips more? Either the members become fools following you or they lose money..

But if you can talk about the possibilities where it can land instead if ASI broke the S1,2,3 levels, at least ppl will be cautious..  

Market is so unbelievable.. Well actually its the ppl's minds playing games.. So not getting caught is the fundamental advantage here.. And sometimes u can only do it if you dont play..

smallville wrote:

The only concern in this;
What if we buy thinking the support is at around a certain level and ASI dips more? Either the members become fools following you or they lose money..

But if you can talk about the possibilities where it can land instead if ASI broke the S1,2,3 levels, at least ppl will be cautious..

Market is so unbelievable.. Well actually its the ppl's minds playing games.. So not getting caught is the fundamental advantage here.. And sometimes u can only do it if you dont play..

LSE wrote:

LSE wrote:Watch the market behavior very carefully at this stage but don't get panic.

Dear smallville

I will work on it when time permits. any way i've just done it  for the community to highlight the scenario behind the scene. Index moving like nothing depend on few stocks, with low volumes, is abnormal. We can experience this kind of scenarios only with CSE.

K.Haputantri wrote:Since, ASI is heavily dependant (and also maniputable) on few shares like Nestl,CTC,Jkh, isnt it usefull to watch PPI of those shares rather than ASI?

Dear Hapu I agree with you. At the current situation this is a pure index manipulation .  

Thank You.

LSE wrote:
"Index moving like nothing depend on few stocks, with low volumes, is abnormal..."

LSE wrote:

LSE wrote:Watch the market behavior very carefully at this stage but don't get panic.

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:According to news report US will not invade Syria

US congress will oppose in addition to UN

But our problem is not connected with this

This is mere manipulation by Govt(ONE powerful man  engage in country Finance management) to prevent foreign sales

Pl note that this my candid OPINION

LSE wrote:ASI Index values as of [06-09-2013]

Open - 5683.40
High - 5700.43
Low  - 5668.61
Close - 5672.64


R4 5,776.02
R3 5,744.20
R2 5,712.38 --->> Resistance Level 2
R1 5,692.51 --->> Resistance Level 1

PP 5,680.56

S1 5,660.69 --->> Support Level 1
S2 5,648.74 --->> Support Level 2
S3 5,616.92 --->> Support Level 3
S4 5,585.10


Conclusion :

First of all thank you very much for the valuable comments you provided me to continue this post further in a new way. Due to the comments provided by the community, I thought to present this calculation by mixing up with an another method call Fibonacci Retracement.
Currently we all are waiting for a good trigger point to break this down trend.Fibonacci Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal levels.



Lets look at the above calculated Pivot Point values with below Fibonacci Retracement Levels,

Trend Begining Date  - 04 Dec 2012
Trend Begining Value - 5319.29
Trend Ending Date    - 28 May 2013
Trend Ending Value   - 6532.54

Fibonacci Retracements [History | Weekly]

0.0%    ----->>> 6532.54 ---->>> Fail
100.0%  ----->>> 5319.29 ---->>> Fail
23.6%   ----->>> 6246.21 ---->>> Fail
38.2.2% ----->>> 6069.08 ---->>> Fail
50.0%   ----->>> 5925.91 ---->>> Fail
61.8%   ----->>> 5782.75 ---->>> Fail
76.4%   ----->>> 5605.62 ---->>> Next alert zone for a potential reversal
161.8%  ----->>> 4569.50
261.8%  ----->>> 3356.25
423.6%  ----->>> 1393.22


The most popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and 38.2%. Note that 38.2% is often rounded to 38% and 61.8 is rounded to 62%. Keep in mind that these retracement levels are not hard reversal points. Instead, they serve as alert zones for a potential reversal.

By using the pivot point calculation we can see the next support levels are,

S1 5,660.69 --->> Support Level 1
S2 5,648.74 --->> Support Level 2
S3 5,616.92 --->> Support Level 3

and those are the key potential reversal support levels and keep you eye on Support Level 3. Because, you can see the next alert zones for a potential reversal is laying around 5605.62.


Note

1. Watch the market behavior very carefully at this stage but don't get panic.
2. I personally believe this down trend will not continue further beyond the 5600 level.

I'd like invite you all to add your valuable comments, graphs & techniques to improve the quality of this post.


For more reading,    

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:fibonacci_retracemen

Lets hope for the best.

Thank You...

LSE wrote:ASI Index values as of [06-09-2013]

76.4%   ----->>> 5605.62 ---->>> Next alert zone for a potential reversal

By using the pivot point calculation we can see the next support levels are,

S1
S3 5,616.92 --->> Support Level 3

and those are the key potential reversal support levels and keep you eye on Support Level 3. Because, you can see the next alert zones for a potential reversal is laying around 5605.62.

LSE wrote:


Trend Begining Date  - 04 Dec 2012
Trend Begining Value - 5319.29
Trend Ending Date    - 28 May 2013
Trend Ending Value   - 6532.54

Fibonacci Retracements [History | Weekly]

0.0%    ----->>> 6532.54 ---->>> Fail
100.0%  ----->>> 5319.29 ---->>> Fail
23.6%   ----->>> 6246.21 ---->>> Fail
38.2.2% ----->>> 6069.08 ---->>> Fail
50.0%   ----->>> 5925.91 ---->>> Fail
61.8%   ----->>> 5782.75 ---->>> Fail
76.4%   ----->>> 5605.62 ---->>> Next alert zone for a potential reversal
Actual Value is ---->>> 5605.26
161.8%  ----->>> 4569.50
261.8%  ----->>> 3356.25
423.6%  ----->>> 1393.22


The most popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and 38.2%. Note that 38.2% is often rounded to 38% and 61.8 is rounded to 62%. Keep in mind that these retracement levels are not hard reversal points. Instead, they serve as alert zones for a potential reversal.

By using the pivot point calculation we can see the next support levels are,

S1 5,660.69 --->> Support Level 1
S2 5,648.74 --->> Support Level 2
S3 5,616.92 --->> Support Level 3

and those are the key potential reversal support levels and keep you eye on Support Level 3. Because, you can see the next alert zones for a potential reversal is laying around 5605.62.

76.4% ----->>> 5605.62 ---->>> Next alert zone for a potential reversal

LSE wrote:ASI Index values as of [09-09-2013]

Open - 5671.76
High - 5677.17
Low  - 5605.26
Close - 5605.26


R4 5,844.96
midpoint 5,809.01
R3 5,773.05
midpoint 5,737.10
R2 5,701.14 --->> Resistance Level 2
midpoint 5,677.17
R1 5,653.20 --->> Resistance Level 1

midpoint 5,641.22 --->> Mid Resistance Point

PP 5,629.23

midpoint 5,605.26 --->> Mid support Point

S1 5,581.29 --->> Support Level 1
midpoint 5,569.31
S2 5,557.32 --->> Support Level 2
midpoint 5,521.37
S3 5,485.41
midpoint 5,449.46
S4 5,413.50



Conclusion :

All the theories are well directed in to a same point and I'd like to say this is the beauty of the analyze among different techniques.

Well, yesterday it's reach to the expected point 5,605.26  and on pivot points analyze on mid support point is  laying on the same point exactly [5,605.26].  Now you can see how much those theories are interconnected and how much they are accurate. [On theoretically and practically - except malfunctioning]
If you carefully follow the post from the beginning you will find many such points like this. this is kind of a special scenario.

Yesterday close is laying on the Mid support point. So, we can expect a sudden uptrend if it's working according to the theories. But, practically we can't expect the same behavior as we experienced in several times. Lets see...


Note

I think we can expect some potential reversal pattern form today onwards.


Lets hope for the best.

Thank You...