Are We in a Bear Phase?

StocksWatch wrote:Back in those golden old days, before this miracal turning point in the mid of 2009, there were days in the CSE where total turnover was just above 200mn if I recall correct.

Antonym wrote:The ASI closed at 6,636 on December 31, 2010. It's up 12.64% in less than 4 months! Doesn't look anything like a bear market to me!

Aamiable wrote:

Antonym wrote:The ASI closed at 6,636 on December 31, 2010. It's up 12.64% in less than 4 months! Doesn't look anything like a bear market to me!

agree.. overall towards 2012 it will be an up going trend…… ..slight ups and downs give good opportunities for medium term investment …up trend can continue for couple of years or more... Bloomberg chart is a good example….ups and downs can be seen long run it is upgoing ! ....




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSEALL:IND

tubal wrote:

Aamiable wrote:

Antonym wrote:The ASI closed at 6,636 on December 31, 2010. It's up 12.64% in less than 4 months! Doesn't look anything like a bear market to me!

agree.. overall towards 2012 it will be an up going trend…… ..slight ups and downs give good opportunities for medium term investment …up trend can continue for couple of years or more... Bloomberg chart is a good example….ups and downs can be seen long run it is upgoing ! ....



Antonym .. may be genuine in his statement !!



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSEALL:IND

Amiamble, have you heard the term sarcasm? I do believe Antonym is being sarcastic.
Secondly you cannot used the ASI index for analysis anymore, this as been discussed in numerous threads not least of all in my post above. In that I have outlined many reasons why the market is negative you on the other hand seem to think a couple of smileys will make the market become bullish once again.

Aamiable wrote:
Antonym .. may be genuine in his statement !!

Antonym wrote:

Aamiable wrote:
Antonym .. may be genuine in his statement !!

Yes, I meant what I said... According to one source, "While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period."

Most equity markets experienced a particularly severe bear phase during the latter half of 2008. See what it looked like like, graphically, for Russia:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=RTSI%24:IND

tubal wrote:Interestingly the original poster, Academic was one of the first to point out that the market was running out of steam in early february.

There are plenty of reasons some of us convinced that the long term trend is negative. For me the best reason being that everyone was saying the market will go up continuously for ever just a few weeks back. That usually signals the death of the bull.

Want something more solid?
1) There is a clear RSI divergence between the peaks of last year and this year.
2) Most of the green days were on thin volume.
3) If you recalculate the ASI by excluding BUKI/CARS and GREG shares that index has a double top.
4) Many counters are trading below their 200 day SMA
6) Some sector indices are below their 200 day SMA

There's plenty more. However the short term trend is going to up! Yep, we are going to see a few green days this week. Why?
1) DIAL seems to have attracted interest once again, if DIAL goes upto 11 that will be enough to add about a hundred points to the index.
2) NEST has declared a dividend. This is a fundamentally sound illiquid shares, it might attract the attention of the illiquid players. NEST is also an index heavy share and capable of pushing the index on it's own.

Both these factors are going to effect the index but not the overall market (point number 7 in the first list is that most green days had Advance/Decline ratios < 1 ). So how is the broad market going to behave? It will still be positive in the short term because many many counters are now heavily oversold. They are long overdue for a rebound.

So in short, the coming week the market will be up, then it will continue on it's merry way to the south pole.

Academic wrote:

[justify]Yes. I predicted the downturn. But my expectation was temporary one, just for 1.5-2 months. Then I wrote, I expect market to go up after 21 march. And it did happen though eventually declined beginning of April.

However, many expressed a downward opinion based on credit clearance not on a bear-phase (If need I can provide plenty of links to such a posts).

It is only after April (may be after seen the continuing red market) some started this bear talk. And many such posters provided little justifications then.

tubal wrote:

Academic wrote:

[justify]Yes. I predicted the downturn. But my expectation was temporary one, just for 1.5-2 months. Then I wrote, I expect market to go up after 21 march. And it did happen though eventually declined beginning of April.

However, many expressed a downward opinion based on credit clearance not on a bear-phase (If need I can provide plenty of links to such a posts).

It is only after April (may be after seen the continuing red market) some started this bear talk. And many such posters provided little justifications then.

Not me :-) I started my bear talk in late march

Academic wrote:

tubal wrote:

Academic wrote:

[justify]Yes. I predicted the downturn. But my expectation was temporary one, just for 1.5-2 months. Then I wrote, I expect market to go up after 21 march. And it did happen though eventually declined beginning of April.

However, many expressed a downward opinion based on credit clearance not on a bear-phase (If need I can provide plenty of links to such a posts).

It is only after April (may be after seen the continuing red market) some started this bear talk. And many such posters provided little justifications then.

Not me :-) I started my bear talk in late march

The past belongs to history. Let's predict future. The golden question is when is the next turning point. This is not a bottomless hole.

tubal wrote:
The ASI is no longer worth the ink used to print it in the ft. Anyone who makes investment decisions by looking at the ASI is being rather foolish

tubal wrote:

Academic wrote:

tubal wrote:

Academic wrote:

[justify]Yes. I predicted the downturn. But my expectation was temporary one, just for 1.5-2 months. Then I wrote, I expect market to go up after 21 march. And it did happen though eventually declined beginning of April.

However, many expressed a downward opinion based on credit clearance not on a bear-phase (If need I can provide plenty of links to such a posts).

It is only after April (may be after seen the continuing red market) some started this bear talk. And many such posters provided little justifications then.

Not me :-) I started my bear talk in late march

The past belongs to history. Let's predict future. The golden question is when is the next turning point. This is not a bottomless hole.

In my book there is going to be a turn around (maybe even as early as tommorow (but don't bet your life savings on it)) In addition to the reasons I have already mentioned above, the other major factor is that the main stream media is concerned about the bear (we have moved out of the denial phase into the concern phase) usually the market does the exact opposite of what the crowd thinks, so I expect the ASI to add about 100 to 200 points in the short term.

This will hopefully be a genuine across the board upswing and not a manipulation. However I urge everyone not to start thinking we are at the start of a new bull run just because the ASI goes above it's last high. The ASI is no longer worth the ink used to print it in the ft. Anyone who makes investment decisions by looking at the ASI is being rather foolish

Some of you will recall that in March also this sloth bear predicted a small upswing (when everyone else was despairing and that upswing did happen)

tubal wrote:

Academic wrote:

tubal wrote:

Academic wrote:

[justify]Yes. I predicted the downturn. But my expectation was temporary one, just for 1.5-2 months. Then I wrote, I expect market to go up after 21 march. And it did happen though eventually declined beginning of April.

However, many expressed a downward opinion based on credit clearance not on a bear-phase (If need I can provide plenty of links to such a posts).

It is only after April (may be after seen the continuing red market) some started this bear talk. And many such posters provided little justifications then.

Not me :-) I started my bear talk in late march

The past belongs to history. Let's predict future. The golden question is when is the next turning point. This is not a bottomless hole.

In my book there is going to be a turn around (maybe even as early as tommorow (but don't bet your life savings on it)) In addition to the reasons I have already mentioned above, the other major factor is that the main stream media is concerned about the bear (we have moved out of the denial phase into the concern phase) usually the market does the exact opposite of what the crowd thinks, so I expect the ASI to add about 100 to 200 points in the short term.

This will hopefully be a genuine across the board upswing and not a manipulation. However I urge everyone not to start thinking we are at the start of a new bull run just because the ASI goes above it's last high. The ASI is no longer worth the ink used to print it in the ft. Anyone who makes investment decisions by looking at the ASI is being rather foolish

Some of you will recall that in March also this sloth bear predicted a small upswing (when everyone else was despairing and that upswing did happen)

tubal wrote:

tubal wrote:

Academic wrote:

tubal wrote:

Academic wrote:

[justify]Yes. I predicted the downturn. But my expectation was temporary one, just for 1.5-2 months. Then I wrote, I expect market to go up after 21 march. And it did happen though eventually declined beginning of April.

However, many expressed a downward opinion based on credit clearance not on a bear-phase (If need I can provide plenty of links to such a posts).

It is only after April (may be after seen the continuing red market) some started this bear talk. And many such posters provided little justifications then.

Not me :-) I started my bear talk in late march

The past belongs to history. Let's predict future. The golden question is when is the next turning point. This is not a bottomless hole.

In my book there is going to be a turn around (maybe even as early as tommorow (but don't bet your life savings on it)) In addition to the reasons I have already mentioned above, the other major factor is that the main stream media is concerned about the bear (we have moved out of the denial phase into the concern phase) usually the market does the exact opposite of what the crowd thinks, so I expect the ASI to add about 100 to 200 points in the short term.

This will hopefully be a genuine across the board upswing and not a manipulation. However I urge everyone not to start thinking we are at the start of a new bull run just because the ASI goes above it's last high. The ASI is no longer worth the ink used to print it in the ft. Anyone who makes investment decisions by looking at the ASI is being rather foolish

Some of you will recall that in March also this sloth bear predicted a small upswing (when everyone else was despairing and that upswing did happen)

So we had a few days of green as expected. And it as an across the board rally rather than manipulation of the index trhough SLTL, BUKI and CARS. However cause for concern is how weak those reversals were. The net effect was to move counters that were in the oversold territory into neutral area. The bear gave clear indications that it will continue it's journey on friday.

Part of the reason for the short uptrend to be so weak is because many shares are below the 200 day SMA as already discussed. I mentioned that DIAL and NEST might be at the forefront of the rally but it wasn't to be. That's because they were also below the 200 day average (but NEST moved back up a bit).