CSE and future

slstock wrote:Finally after a long wait, ASI crossed 6000 2 times now.
Today and tomorrow is  crucial to see whether it stays above 6000 with large volume. If it does,  we may never see 6000 Again ;-)


Except for the forthcoming,  March 2014 human right issues, the environment is set for one way in  the stock market. UP.  There can be hiccups in the middle, but CSE nearly had a 3 year dull period.  With CB clearly signalling a path for growth, interest rates/borrowing rate coming down, GSP back in the sack, US, European economies signalling a come back, CSE showing poor performance in 2013 when many stock markets recovered , 2014 appears  a overall good year for CSE ( again discounting the unexpected) .

So, time to be positive and believe. If everyone does , CSE is going to have a good time.  Pointless always being negative. We are here at CSE to gain and not to loose all the time right.  

Don;t make the mistake you made in the past. Don;t chase after speculatives to only hold them high and maybe never recover. Time for mind shift.

Nice to see slstock in aggressive mode.

Treasury rate almost not worth investing now.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t32276-tb-rate-down-08-01-2013-423353-bps

The volume on Jan 8th could have been better but it improved over last day. If this keeps up it will be good.

Else the danger is a selected few shares makes ASI go up, and when they fall the other shares are worse priced than before. We seen this dangerous cycle several times.

Anyway, at somepoint market needs to turn around and mentalities needs to shift. We all are so skeptical as the past 3 years was a total disappointment and repeated false ups happened with falls being brutal effecting sometimes the good more than the bad.

People sell off with smallest profit due to the worry, and it does not help the market to go higher up with sustainability. More people need to hold than sell.


Still there are many shares trading at 50%-70% NAV and PE of 5-10.


Can;t still say for sure as the trends is not super strong, but what we need is a run to upto 6300-6500 within january and then settle well above 6000 for the next hike.

Dec quarter may be still like Sept for most companies but staring from MArch 2014 I think companies will start recovering. Gold also seems to settle at around Rs 1200. Some Fin companies evaluated their portfolio around this figure and took safety measures so we might not see more impairments unless gold takes another big plunge ( unlikely )

slstock wrote:Treasury rate almost not worth investing now.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t32276-tb-rate-down-08-01-2013-423353-bps

Let;s hope for the best. May all those money come to CSE.

Just above half in market , and turnover Rs 1 bil and trades 8400. About half of it is HNB crossing.

Still not bad . Not bad. Confidence can do wonders.

At somepoint in the near future I expect some red to stabilize the market .  I was expecting around 6200 ( we are nearly that) but strong trends can change any patterns. But just want to say  not to panic  when some red comes.  Let profit takers  do their job to exit and invest in something else.

No market can always have green or red.

Suddenly the JKH, HNB, LIOC, TKYO etc guys have disappeared and the foolish TWOD, BLUE and TFC guys are dancing in the rain!

Cheers!

Ahh ha, it happnened today itself  ;-)

slstock wrote:At somepoint in the near future I expect some red to stabilize the market .  I was expecting around 6200 ( we are nearly that) but strong trends can change any patterns.  But just want to say  not to  panic  when some red comes.  Let profit takers  do their job to exit and invest in something else.

No market can always  have green or red.

It appears that the Govt and CSE have understood  their role now

Recently not much interference by the Authorities

If market forces are allowed to work we can  expect good
market during year 2014

Even HR resolution is passed there will be physiological effect temporally.People will understand no immediate effect due to
HR resolution

Today Red as expected was a good thing. Another 30 point ( 0.5%) drop on Monday should get market out from over bought territory.

But if it happens by that much in a single day ( monday itself), it is important market recovers monday evening or by tuesday. Else panic will set in for greater selling that can destroy the positive trend/mood.

slstock wrote:Today Red as expected was a good thing. Another 30 point (0.5%) drop on Monday should get market out from over bought territory.

Occasional bouts of profit-taking like today's are healthy: it probably indicates that stocks are moving from weak hands to strong hands.

weak hands = Small speculators with limited holding power, whose decisions are probably more influenced by day-to-day price fluctuations.
strong hands = Big investors who have enough patience, have the conviction to hold on to their trades, and are not easily knocked out of their position.

Days like today are dangerous for other shares and RSI. Higher caps like CLC, CTC , LOFC, JKH has made index go up 0.73% with turn over 489 mil so far ( 300 mil crossings) . But there are more negative counters to positive ones and many other shares are in red.

Hopefully this will change soon.

slstock wrote:Days like today are dangerous for other shares and RSI.  Higher caps like CLC,  CTC , LOFC, JKH has made index go up 0.73% with turn over 489 mil so far ( 300 mil crossings) .  But there are  more negative counters  to positive ones  and many other shares are in red.

Hopefully this will change soon.

Agree,Today wasn't a good day for market.

Yeah this upward trend is just because of JKH, CTC factor. most of other shares went down.

econ wrote:Yeah this upward trend is just because of JKH, CTC factor. most of other shares went down.

Was it a quick bull??

I think this is normal upward trend

Not an artificial or manipulated upward trend

Now the man try manipulate national statistics . Not stock market

He will learn a lesson again very soon again.

econ wrote:Yeah this upward trend is just because of JKH, CTC factor. most of other shares went down.

Hopefully others will follow the trend

Today, within 1 hour  turnover is  Rs 782 mil.  Volume 40+ mil.  Trades 4000+. Can today cross Rs 2 bi ?

Right now market is a bit quiet though with retailers. Let see

Turnover 1.87 billion. Trades 10000+. Volume 130 mil ( mainly due to 63 mil TAP) .

Not bad. Market closed with % marginal up.

If this keeps up, those brokers who want withdraw from market may stay. ( ie but actually there are too many brokers house )

Jan 27th:

Market is at 6228.

Today market dropped about 0.45% so far. If we take out the CTC price increase market drop is about 0.75%.

This drop is healthy and needed for the market to reduce heat. World markets also droped today. Nikkei and Hang Sen much as 2%.

But so CSE to keep it head up without panic ( still see people who panic but it is far less than 1 year ago ) it need to stay above 6200.

So let see.

Btw, there is some panic selling at stock markets in India, Hong Kong, Japan , Korea and Pakistan etc due US Fed decision, and money going back to west.

Note CSE is not really that much reliant on these world effects except for some panic. Also CSE needs to be looked at more from a point of fiew of Sri Lankan growth and present Gov/CB stands.

So if this goes on for another day and if there are people willing to sell share cheap , I am sure some Investor will buy looking at the future.

Update for Jan 28th : Shame , Shame I tell you


To make market healthier for the next run,  yesterday drop was not enough.  This high cap share games are  totally unnecessary and shameful. CTC (this time).

If not for CTC , yesterday  drop would be about 0.8% which would have been very good to reduce some heat and sellers who want to dispose.

What is shameful is less than 200 shares of CTC made  a  last  minute jump from Rs 1300 to Rs 1349  adding + 0.3% to market.  Else it would have been closer to -0.5% ASI drop for the day which was the reality. Now only -0.16% .

Why is this game needed? When market is behaving rather naturally.

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below it will do the trick.

But will it happen, I don;t know as some manipulator seems to be at work.    

Let the market behave naturally . The present pattern of the market is very satisfactory to me.  Don;t mess it up for everyone.

slstock wrote:Update for Jan 28th :

To make market healthier for the next run,  yesterday drop was not enough.  This high cap share games are  totally unnecessary and shameful CTC (this time).

If not for CTC , yesterday  drop would be about 0.8% which would have been very good to reduce some heat and sellers who want to dispose.

What is shameful is less than 200 shares of CTC made  a  last  minute jump from Rs 1300 to Rs 1349  adding + 0.3% to market.  Else it would have been closer to -0.5% ASI drop for the day which was the reality. Now only -0.16% .

Why is this game needed? When market is behaving rather naturally.

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 it will do the trick.

But will it happen, I don;t know as manipulators seems to be at work.    

Let the market behave naturally . The present pattern of the market is very satisfactory to me.  Don;t mess it up for everyone .

Exactly slstock,they pressed the green button few weeks ago.May be yesterday they wanted to closed it flat or less negative.that means today we can't expect red.
We have to ride on them.I bought few shares before close assuming their aim is the above one.
It was red across the board yesterday but we only closed 9 units down.   

Good, it happened. ASI dropped about 25 point, and CTC also dropped to 1300. If this hold for a while, we can expect recovery late today or maybe starting tomorrow.

slstock wrote:

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below  it will do the trick.

slstock wrote:Good, it happened.  ASI dropped about 25 point, and CTC also dropped to 1300.  If this hold for a while,  we can expect recovery late today or maybe starting tomorrow.

slstock wrote:

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below  it will do the trick.

Is this to fulfill a technical criteria ? Irrespective of demand and supply ?

Bit of several concepts based on my personal study which include technicals and to reduce over supply.

It would be actually better if the market  closes with 20-25 point ( 0.4%)  down today.

Backstage wrote:

slstock wrote:Good, it happened.  ASI dropped about 25 point, and CTC also dropped to 1300.  If this hold for a while,  we can expect recovery late today or maybe starting tomorrow.

slstock wrote:

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below  it will do the trick.

Is this to fulfill a technical criteria ? Irrespective of demand and supply ?

slstock wrote:Bit of several concepts : technicals, to reduce over supply and  my  own study.

It would be actually better if the market  closes with 20-25 point ( 0.4%)  down today.

Backstage wrote:

slstock wrote:Good, it happened.  ASI dropped about 25 point, and CTC also dropped to 1300.  If this hold for a while,  we can expect recovery late today or maybe starting tomorrow.

slstock wrote:

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below  it will do the trick.

Is this to fulfill a technical criteria ? Irrespective of demand and supply ?

Hmmmm... So,is it the length of time that it has to stay 20 points below ? or the volume traded while 20 points down ? How technicals actually work is still a mystery to me.    

Backstage wrote:..........
.........................

How technicals actually work is still a mystery to me.    

If there is no mystery....., how these inventors (of Indicators) ,educators, teachers, book writers , Gurus,  pundits make money ?

see this...........,
http://www.bollingerbands.com/

To simplify,  the number of Down days  ( length of time ) matters  to reduce  unwanted heat with other factors.

Also other than that, after watching market for  long time you  tend to develop your own "observations"  (lets just say)  

Some technical indicators can also confirm to support your observations ( at times)  1 million bucks for further details haha.


Btw Knock, personally I never followed Bollinger so far. Maybe I should just to find out their effectiveness at CSE.

But Bollinger is not clear cut either. Some people buy at upper band and some people sell at upper band.

Backstage wrote:

slstock wrote:Bit of several concepts : technicals, to reduce over supply and  my  own study.

It would be actually better if the market  closes with 20-25 point ( 0.4%)  down today.

Backstage wrote:

slstock wrote:Good, it happened.  ASI dropped about 25 point, and CTC also dropped to 1300.  If this hold for a while,  we can expect recovery late today or maybe starting tomorrow.

slstock wrote:

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below  it will do the trick.

Is this to fulfill a technical criteria ? Irrespective of demand and supply ?

Hmmmm...  So,is it the length of time that it has to stay 20 points below ? or the volume traded while 20 points down ? How technicals actually work is still a mystery to me.    

Update for  Jan 29th:

:-)  The drop today was 27 points  0.43% ( around what was expected ).

It is important market  does not fall below 6200 will large volume.  

 omorrow the market needs to end  flat ( closer to flat) or end up in green .

If it goes to plan,  will be happy with  the present market behaviour  for a sustainable further run.


Note : Am updating to give some input  to  so many people in the forum still worried due to continous Bear attacks.

The above is based on my personal opinions and study.  I cannot be held responsible if market behaves differently to my want  ( I wish it would behave the way I want always)

I know , if I am proven right nobody will say so or thank . But if I am wrong there will be many with daggers in hand. Sad fact of human psycology.