CSE and future

Bit of several concepts based on my personal study which include technicals and to reduce over supply.

It would be actually better if the market  closes with 20-25 point ( 0.4%)  down today.

Backstage wrote:

slstock wrote:Good, it happened.  ASI dropped about 25 point, and CTC also dropped to 1300.  If this hold for a while,  we can expect recovery late today or maybe starting tomorrow.

slstock wrote:

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below  it will do the trick.

Is this to fulfill a technical criteria ? Irrespective of demand and supply ?

slstock wrote:Bit of several concepts : technicals, to reduce over supply and  my  own study.

It would be actually better if the market  closes with 20-25 point ( 0.4%)  down today.

Backstage wrote:

slstock wrote:Good, it happened.  ASI dropped about 25 point, and CTC also dropped to 1300.  If this hold for a while,  we can expect recovery late today or maybe starting tomorrow.

slstock wrote:

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below  it will do the trick.

Is this to fulfill a technical criteria ? Irrespective of demand and supply ?

Hmmmm... So,is it the length of time that it has to stay 20 points below ? or the volume traded while 20 points down ? How technicals actually work is still a mystery to me.    

Backstage wrote:..........
.........................

How technicals actually work is still a mystery to me.    

If there is no mystery....., how these inventors (of Indicators) ,educators, teachers, book writers , Gurus,  pundits make money ?

see this...........,
http://www.bollingerbands.com/

To simplify,  the number of Down days  ( length of time ) matters  to reduce  unwanted heat with other factors.

Also other than that, after watching market for  long time you  tend to develop your own "observations"  (lets just say)  

Some technical indicators can also confirm to support your observations ( at times)  1 million bucks for further details haha.


Btw Knock, personally I never followed Bollinger so far. Maybe I should just to find out their effectiveness at CSE.

But Bollinger is not clear cut either. Some people buy at upper band and some people sell at upper band.

Backstage wrote:

slstock wrote:Bit of several concepts : technicals, to reduce over supply and  my  own study.

It would be actually better if the market  closes with 20-25 point ( 0.4%)  down today.

Backstage wrote:

slstock wrote:Good, it happened.  ASI dropped about 25 point, and CTC also dropped to 1300.  If this hold for a while,  we can expect recovery late today or maybe starting tomorrow.

slstock wrote:

This is a wish :  I hope there is another 20-30 drop, before ,market recovers.  Essentially if CTC drops back to Rs 1300 or even below  it will do the trick.

Is this to fulfill a technical criteria ? Irrespective of demand and supply ?

Hmmmm...  So,is it the length of time that it has to stay 20 points below ? or the volume traded while 20 points down ? How technicals actually work is still a mystery to me.    

Update for  Jan 29th:

:-)  The drop today was 27 points  0.43% ( around what was expected ).

It is important market  does not fall below 6200 will large volume.  

 omorrow the market needs to end  flat ( closer to flat) or end up in green .

If it goes to plan,  will be happy with  the present market behaviour  for a sustainable further run.


Note : Am updating to give some input  to  so many people in the forum still worried due to continous Bear attacks.

The above is based on my personal opinions and study.  I cannot be held responsible if market behaves differently to my want  ( I wish it would behave the way I want always)

I know , if I am proven right nobody will say so or thank . But if I am wrong there will be many with daggers in hand. Sad fact of human psycology.

Yesterday ASI graph shot up suddenly today shot down.Better if someone can come up with two images.

If the read above posts you will see why it shot up and shot down. No graph necessary

nimantha80 wrote:Yesterday ASI graph shot up suddenly today shot down.Better if someone can come up with two images.

slstock wrote:If the read above posts you will see why it shot up and shot down. No graph necessary

nimantha80 wrote:Yesterday ASI graph shot up suddenly today shot down.Better if someone can come up with two images.

I know it,just a little joke. under each graph CTC price movement should be mentioned.Reason for red today yesterday's CTC. and tomorrow green. Garanteed.

so stock .........
I understand ur say.......
It's about reliability n consistency of the way of going up......
Keep it up!

Guessing early, that Today is going to end up in Green.  

If we can have big volume  / turnover it will be good for the market.

CTC is used to raise or drop the ASI by about 0.3-0.5% daily.

slstock wrote:Update for  Jan 29th:



 omorrow the market needs to end  flat ( closer to flat) or end up in green .

If it goes to plan,  will be happy with  the present market behaviour  for a sustainable further run.

Thanks SLS for providing these advice.

Even if tomorrow results red, Even though the red color dominated on few days we can expect bullish trend continue IFF <=>
- observe good absorbing mechanism in selling
- down words in selected stocks and noticeable collecting in some other stocks
- if foreign keep on start buying as yday
- when bank and finance sector stats rally
- if SL prepare a strong backup for March Geneva event. (Despite of eh false alarms of LTTE favorable western voices)
- may be good year end results and selected counters.
- raise of fallen giants (w.r.t NAV/Earnings)

31st Jan :

With about 35 minutes to go, turnover at Rs 1.03 billion .

Crossing so far only Rs 75.0 million !!

Retailer are coming back it seems with this Fin sector merger .

Ended at 1.33 billion. Foregin Inflow 210 mil today . Not bad, after yesterday selling.

Also time to read the below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t32521-bank-fin-merger-hype-warning

Anyone like my Avatar  

slstock wrote:Anyone like my Avatar  

Tomorrow maybe around Flat or Green.

slstock wrote:Anyone like my Avatar  

I can understand meaning behind that. But…………………….

Don't think of quitting this forum SLS   

We need you 

slstock wrote:Anyone like my Avatar  

i like it !

i saw it a couple of years back at that museum in philly ! after paris, the philly one has the main collection.

i hope we are not yet at the Gates of Hell though  

No we are not at the Gates of Hell haha

Actually today a good thing happened on a technical  grounds :-).

It is important next trading day  it is closer to Flat or Green.

Today inflow over Rs 290 mil.

Nice to see few illiqd high caps falling,
GSF,SHAL....etc

slstock wrote:

slstock wrote:Anyone like my Avatar  

Tomorrow  maybe around Flat or Green.

Flat for sure   

Right now ASI 6196.

These red days were needed in my opinion , but if it falls much further today , it can induce some panic.

Like /wish to see it close over 6200 today.

Btw, CSE was lucky to be closed yesterday ;-) .

Feb 5th :
Market closed at 6175.  To be frank it was below what I expected.

Here are some observations/developments  for this happening
a ) When in the morning there was a COMB crossing  at Rs 127, in was surprising to see in  the last few minutes  why COMB was  dragged down to Rs 120 from Rs 126 for a large sale of shares in  the market .
b) As mentioned CSE was saved yesterday as it was closed on Holiday. The world markets went down badly on the 4th.  Japan much as 3.5% down. Thats big.

So I guess CSE had some response to that also today.

Anyway,  it is important market doesn;t sink too much further. Else for shorter term , overall market sentiment can get negative. One technical have turned negative. But some are still positive or neutral.

If market does behave as expected, use the opportunities wisely. ( this is not the time to hold weak shares)

Turnover is still decent. Today also about 50 mil foriegn inflow.

Can we hope for a bounce back on Friday  ( or even Thursday afternoon?)

TAH will be happy as he wanted 100 points down in SL20. Today itself , SP20 lost about 50 points. ( mainly to JKH and COMB)

slstock wrote:Right now ASI 6196.

These red  days were needed in my opinion , but if it falls much further today , it can induce some panic.

Like /wish to see it close over 6200 today.

Btw,  CSE was  lucky to be closed yesterday ;-) .

slstock wrote:Feb 5th :
Market closed at 6175.  To be frank it was below what I expected.

Here are some observations/developments  for this happening
a ) When in the morning there was a COMB crossing  at Rs 127, in was surprising to see in  the last few minutes  why COMB was  dragged down to Rs 120 from Rs 126 for a large sale of shares in  the market .
b) As mentioned CSE was saved yesterday as it was closed . The world market went down badly on the 4th.  Japan much as 3.5% down. That big.

So I guess there was some response to that also today.

Anyway,  it is important market doesn;t sink much further,

Can we hope for a bounce back on Friday  ( or even Thursday afternoon?)

TAH will be happy as he wanted 100 points down in SL20. Today itself , SP20 lost 50 points. ( mainly to JKH and COMB)

slstock wrote:Right now ASI 6196.

These red  days were needed in my opinion , but if it falls much further today , it can induce some panic.

Like /wish to see it close over 6200 today.

Btw,  CSE was  lucky to be closed yesterday ;-) .

if INDEX doesn't turn up within next 7 days....
we may have to say bye bye for big buying deals .....for 1 to 2 months....
hmm...
But i hope it should turn either tomorrow mid day or Friday.....
But JKH N and W may be the decision maker...

slstock wrote:Feb 5th :
Market closed at 6175.  To be frank it was below what I expected.

Here are some observations/developments  for this happening
a ) When in the morning there was a COMB crossing  at Rs 127, in was surprising to see in  the last few minutes  why COMB was  dragged down to Rs 120 from Rs 126 for a large sale of shares in  the market .
b) As mentioned CSE was saved yesterday as it was closed . The world market went down badly on the 4th.  Japan much as 3.5% down. That big.

So I guess there was some response to that also today.

Anyway,  it is important market doesn;t sink much further,

Can we hope for a bounce back on Friday  ( or even Thursday afternoon?)

TAH will be happy as he wanted 100 points down in SL20. Today itself , SP20 lost 50 points. ( mainly to JKH and COMB)

slstock wrote:Right now ASI 6196.

These red  days were needed in my opinion , but if it falls much further today , it can induce some panic.

Like /wish to see it close over 6200 today.

Btw,  CSE was  lucky to be closed yesterday ;-) .

Do anyone think COMB late activity was real.Anyway now it can be collected again upto 129.Slowly.

I would like to see JKH around 225, for a rebound .....A good point to collect

Almost all major world markets  closed in  considerable Green  ( either thurday or on Friday)
Can CSE take the same trend , be opposed to it or close Flat to be neutral.

There still appears some selling. Today DIAL 400 mil is it foreign ?
Just now JKH had a 220000 share crossing at 229.

Just remember , when people expect others wise things can go opposite.

Give us a blast in the last hour.

dhanurrox wrote:Give us a blast in the last hour.

Anyway what ever says darama in geneva also matters , so market will be down as well as Big boy JKH .. hoping to buy below 220...

Out of all shares IF some foreigners might want to sell, I hope not for CTC and NEST.

These share are high caps trading at premiums at CSE.
Some companies are still holding to CTC for example which they bought below Rs 300 ( and now at Rs 1300. )
Same propoirtions with NEST . One good thing is most companies who bought are long term investors.

However, if they decide to sell directly in market or much lower via crossings , it will be very detrimental to present market sentiments.