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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

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Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast
All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Screen10

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
"Given enough time, a hypothetical chimpanzee typing at random could, as part of its output, almost surely produce one of Shakespeare's plays." - Infinite monkey theorem in popular culture

Similarly: Given enough time, a hypothetical analyst creating excel spreadsheets at random could, as part of his output, almost surely produce an economic forecast like the one above. And he has! Smile

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
GNP to more than triple but ASI to remain at 6000 levels! Wow!! MArket PE might be 2-3X by then!

Lol!

Cheers!

stumpy

stumpy
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
lol! 

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
would be a great time to invest then ? shareholders sell now and buy in 2020.

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
There was a Book called Use and misuse of statistics in 1970s

This i quote from Wikipedia
Quote
misuse of statistics occurs when a statistical argument asserts a falsehood. In some cases, the misuse may be accidental. In others, it is purposeful and for the gain of the perpetrator. When the statistical reason involved is false or misapplied, this constitutes a statistical fallacy.

The false statistics trap can be quite damaging to the quest for knowledge. For example, in medical science, correcting a falsehood may take decades and cost lives."

Misuses can be easy to fall into. Professional scientists, even mathematicians and professional statisticians, can be fooled by even some simple methods, even if they are careful to check everything. Scientists have been known to fool themselves with statistics due to lack of knowledge of probability theory and lack of standardization of their tests.

Contents

1 Types of misuse
1.1 Discarding unfavorable data
1.2 Loaded questions
1.3 Overgeneralization
1.4 Biased samples
1.5 Misreporting or misunderstanding of estimated error
1.6 False causality
1.7 Proof of the null hypothesis
1.8 Data dredging
1.9 Data manipulation
1.10 Non-enduring class fallacies
1.11 Other fallacies
2 See also
3 Notes
4 References
5 Further reading
Unquate
Pl read to understand what GNMet try to say

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rapaport wrote:GNP to more than triple but ASI to remain at 6000 levels! Wow!! MArket PE might be 2-3X by then!

Lol!

Cheers!


Yes, a lot confusing.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Aubrey Perera wrote:would be a great time to invest then ? shareholders sell now and buy in 2020.

They expect ASI to reach 6200+ in March '14 and on long term, 6618 in 2020.. 2020 is 5+ years from now on and if index goes on 600+ points up for 5+ years, why invest in stocks?

However, we must also understand this is a forecast, between now and 2020, there can be many bull n bear runs and ultimately index stall at 6618 as they think.  tongue 

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?



dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
guys don't you see it? obviously a figure is missing here.it should be 26618

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Typical example for misuse of statistics

Can get a good post in present Central Bank

nalaka_sg


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
He may be correct ...ASI went more than 5000 point in just 1 1/2 years during 2009-2011
its already overbrought for 10years
i feel ASI will hover around 5500 to 7000 for year to come.
But it dose not mean individual stock not gain over the time

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I think I can guess the intention now .


@slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?





Last edited by slstock on Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:37 am; edited 2 times in total

sew


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@slstock wrote:I think I can guess the intention now.


@slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?




can u pls. elaborate ?



Last edited by sew on Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:09 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : mistake)

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Let await GMnet's reason/response.

(
@sew wrote:
@slstock wrote:I think I can guess the intention now.


@slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?




can u pls. elaborate ?

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Whoever created that table must only used a malfunctioning crystal ball to obtain data.

Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?




Is this a standard question that you ask from Posters?
Currently there are 187782 posts in the forum and I am sure none of them have given their reason for posting an article in the forum. If you still want me to answer your question, I am more than happy to do so.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I asked a reasonable  question ,  so give a direct answer to reduce unnecessary speculation.

I see you must be a new GMnet so let me clarify  why I asked  .

1) When ASI is  6100 now, you  post some article which shows the market will go to   6618 in 6 years!
   To you , me and many  in all honesty will  find this fact hard to believe.

 Also look at other stats in this article. Look at population and wages.  Do you think it is viable?
     
2) When other members  also post articles or links which is questionable we ask the same questions and ask  them to give reasons.

I personally have asked direct questions when in doubt ( to any poster) for over  3 years.. I/We do this to maintain certain standard in the forum which you will also appreciate.

3)   The forum mentality is down, some people are scared right now,  some soothsayers are predicting market can hit 4800  again without giving reasons.  

What market lacks is confidence more than anything than fundamentals. When ASI was 7800 it was one story. Now it is another.

Present market  if you looking at forward earnings , ie, bloomberg, and some broker stats, it is trading around PE of 11. Some companies are trading at 0.5 NAV and PE of 5.
 
What we need is morale boosting stuff  right now  to encourage true investment at CSE and teach new comers to learn patience as investment takes time.

I believe the  market probably will exceed 6618 this year itself (I could be wrong) but i gave the reasons  which I wrote in lengthy  articles in the forum  ( if you search) .

This question have nothing personal as I even don;t know you.  But I did not appreciate the timing and the posting without reason which gives rise to unnecessary speculation  ( which I did also) and worry.  

Hope it is clear why  I asked.




GMNet wrote:
@slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?




Is this a standard question that you ask from Posters?
Currently there are 187782 posts in the forum and I am sure none of them have given their reason for posting an article in the forum. If you still want me to answer your question, I am more than happy to do so.

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
GMnet seems to be a crazy fellow.ha ha ha

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
GMNet wrote:
@slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?


Is this a standard question that you ask from Posters?
Currently there are 187782 posts in the forum and I am sure none of them have given their reason for posting an article in the forum. If you still want me to answer your question, I am more than happy to do so.

GMNet, the way you response to slstock question is sooo rude.  Evil or Very Mad 
Thats so unprofessional. You need to learn few basic things.

Slstock, it's really up to you to decide what you are doing in forum.

I'M OUT

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