All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

Jeremy

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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast
All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Screen10

Antonym

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"Given enough time, a hypothetical chimpanzee typing at random could, as part of its output, almost surely produce one of Shakespeare's plays." - Infinite monkey theorem in popular culture

Similarly: Given enough time, a hypothetical analyst creating excel spreadsheets at random could, as part of his output, almost surely produce an economic forecast like the one above. And he has! Smile

Rapaport

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GNP to more than triple but ASI to remain at 6000 levels! Wow!! MArket PE might be 2-3X by then!

Lol!

Cheers!

stumpy

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Aubrey Perera

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would be a great time to invest then ? shareholders sell now and buy in 2020.

D.G.Dayaratne

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There was a Book called Use and misuse of statistics in 1970s

This i quote from Wikipedia
Quote
misuse of statistics occurs when a statistical argument asserts a falsehood. In some cases, the misuse may be accidental. In others, it is purposeful and for the gain of the perpetrator. When the statistical reason involved is false or misapplied, this constitutes a statistical fallacy.

The false statistics trap can be quite damaging to the quest for knowledge. For example, in medical science, correcting a falsehood may take decades and cost lives."

Misuses can be easy to fall into. Professional scientists, even mathematicians and professional statisticians, can be fooled by even some simple methods, even if they are careful to check everything. Scientists have been known to fool themselves with statistics due to lack of knowledge of probability theory and lack of standardization of their tests.

Contents

1 Types of misuse
1.1 Discarding unfavorable data
1.2 Loaded questions
1.3 Overgeneralization
1.4 Biased samples
1.5 Misreporting or misunderstanding of estimated error
1.6 False causality
1.7 Proof of the null hypothesis
1.8 Data dredging
1.9 Data manipulation
1.10 Non-enduring class fallacies
1.11 Other fallacies
2 See also
3 Notes
4 References
5 Further reading
Unquate
Pl read to understand what GNMet try to say

Leon

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Rapaport wrote:GNP to more than triple but ASI to remain at 6000 levels! Wow!! MArket PE might be 2-3X by then!

Lol!

Cheers!

Yes, a lot confusing.

smallville

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Aubrey Perera wrote:would be a great time to invest then ? shareholders sell now and buy in 2020.

They expect ASI to reach 6200+ in March '14 and on long term, 6618 in 2020.. 2020 is 5+ years from now on and if index goes on 600+ points up for 5+ years, why invest in stocks?

However, we must also understand this is a forecast, between now and 2020, there can be many bull n bear runs and ultimately index stall at 6618 as they think. tongue

Slstock

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GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

dudi

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guys don't you see it? obviously a figure is missing here.it should be 26618

D.G.Dayaratne

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Typical example for misuse of statistics

Can get a good post in present Central Bank

nalaka_sg

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He may be correct ...ASI went more than 5000 point in just 1 1/2 years during 2009-2011
its already overbrought for 10years
i feel ASI will hover around 5500 to 7000 for year to come.
But it dose not mean individual stock not gain over the time

Slstock

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I think I can guess the intention now .

slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

Last edited by slstock on Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:37 am; edited 2 times in total

sew

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slstock wrote:I think I can guess the intention now.

slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

can u pls. elaborate ?

Last edited by sew on Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:09 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : mistake)

Slstock

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Let await GMnet's reason/response.

(

sew wrote:

slstock wrote:I think I can guess the intention now.

slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

can u pls. elaborate ?

UKboy

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Whoever created that table must only used a malfunctioning crystal ball to obtain data.

Jeremy

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slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

Is this a standard question that you ask from Posters?
Currently there are 187782 posts in the forum and I am sure none of them have given their reason for posting an article in the forum. If you still want me to answer your question, I am more than happy to do so.

Slstock

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I asked a reasonable question , so give a direct answer to reduce unnecessary speculation.

I see you must be a new GMnet so let me clarify why I asked .

1) When ASI is 6100 now, you post some article which shows the market will go to 6618 in 6 years!
To you , me and many in all honesty will find this fact hard to believe.

Also look at other stats in this article. Look at population and wages. Do you think it is viable?

2) When other members also post articles or links which is questionable we ask the same questions and ask them to give reasons.

I personally have asked direct questions when in doubt ( to any poster) for over 3 years.. I/We do this to maintain certain standard in the forum which you will also appreciate.

3) The forum mentality is down, some people are scared right now, some soothsayers are predicting market can hit 4800 again without giving reasons.

What market lacks is confidence more than anything than fundamentals. When ASI was 7800 it was one story. Now it is another.

Present market if you looking at forward earnings , ie, bloomberg, and some broker stats, it is trading around PE of 11. Some companies are trading at 0.5 NAV and PE of 5.

What we need is morale boosting stuff right now to encourage true investment at CSE and teach new comers to learn patience as investment takes time.

I believe the market probably will exceed 6618 this year itself (I could be wrong) but i gave the reasons which I wrote in lengthy articles in the forum ( if you search) .

This question have nothing personal as I even don;t know you. But I did not appreciate the timing and the posting without reason which gives rise to unnecessary speculation ( which I did also) and worry.

Hope it is clear why I asked.

GMNet wrote:

slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

Is this a standard question that you ask from Posters?
Currently there are 187782 posts in the forum and I am sure none of them have given their reason for posting an article in the forum. If you still want me to answer your question, I am more than happy to do so.

dudi

dudi

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GMnet seems to be a crazy fellow.ha ha ha

UKboy

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GMNet wrote:

slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

Is this a standard question that you ask from Posters?
Currently there are 187782 posts in the forum and I am sure none of them have given their reason for posting an article in the forum. If you still want me to answer your question, I am more than happy to do so.

GMNet, the way you response to slstock question is sooo rude. Evil or Very Mad

Thats so unprofessional. You need to learn few basic things.

Slstock, it's really up to you to decide what you are doing in forum.

I'M OUT

The Alchemist

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This is one of the most ridiculous spreadsheets & analysis i have seen.
even the GDP data has not been calculated properly with the growth rates. how can GDP growing at even 7 % from base of usd 60 bill today become only usd 65 bill after 16 years in 2030 ?!
it is obvious that someone screwed up on the formula's on the excel spreadsheet.
This is the montessori level research and forecasting carried out by tradingeconomics.com chaps.
utter disgrace, waste of time and source of confusion, without any scientific or statistical basis done simply because someone is utterly stupid.

I wonder about the poster !

mark

mark

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pissuda ban?

Whô is this trading economics ?

another party of gmnet da?

The Alchemist

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i went into that website.
they have similar data from all countries.

they explain their method as follows

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com

Jeremy

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mark wrote:pissuda ban?

Whô is this trading economics ?

another party of gmnet da?

Please do not accuse others. I am sure you know about ethics of the forum more than I do. I just posted something in this forum, and this is from a reputed website. So why are you'll trying to harass me. If you have a problem with the statistics please get in touch with the source authors and tell them it is wrong. I have seen enough repost from gossip sites in this forum that goes without any question. Do you want me also to stop submitting articles to the forum, like some others have done in the past? I can understand whats going on with the forum and its membership. I wonder what changes it requires?

jonta999

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Utter crap

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All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

1 All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:45 am

Jeremy

2 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:37 am

Antonym

3 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:04 pm

Rapaport

4 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:22 pm

stumpy

5 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Fri Feb 14, 2014 4:39 pm

Aubrey Perera

6 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:43 pm

D.G.Dayaratne

7 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:31 am

Leon

8 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:56 am

smallville

9 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:59 am

Slstock

10 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:47 am

dudi

11 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:59 am

D.G.Dayaratne

12 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:26 am

nalaka_sg

13 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:58 am

Slstock

14 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:07 pm

sew

15 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:59 pm

Slstock

16 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 2:48 pm

UKboy

17 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 5:15 pm

Jeremy

18 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 5:56 pm

Slstock

19 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:20 pm

dudi

20 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:23 pm

UKboy

21 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 8:46 pm

The Alchemist

22 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:11 pm

mark

23 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:18 pm

The Alchemist

24 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:27 pm

Jeremy

25 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:37 pm

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26 Re: All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

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