All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

This is one of the most ridiculous spreadsheets & analysis i have seen.
even the GDP data has not been calculated properly with the growth rates. how can GDP growing at even 7 % from base of usd 60 bill today become only usd 65 bill after 16 years in 2030 ?!
it is obvious that someone screwed up on the formula's on the excel spreadsheet.
This is the montessori level research and forecasting carried out by tradingeconomics.com chaps.
utter disgrace, waste of time and source of confusion, without any scientific or statistical basis done  simply because someone is utterly stupid.

I wonder about the poster !

pissuda ban?

Whô is this trading economics ?

another party of gmnet da?

i went into that website.
they have similar data from all countries.

they explain their method as follows

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com

mark wrote:pissuda ban?

Whô is this trading economics ?

another party of gmnet da?

Please do not accuse others. I am sure you know about ethics of the forum more than I do. I just posted something in this forum, and this is from a reputed website. So why are you'll trying to harass me. If you have a problem with the statistics please get in touch with the source authors and tell them it is wrong. I have seen enough repost from gossip sites in this forum that goes without any question. Do you want me also to stop submitting articles to the forum, like some others have done in the past? I can understand whats going on with the forum and its membership. I wonder what changes it requires?

Utter crap

Maybe He is right.By 2020,

1)JKH could be bankrupt after shifting from core business to casino
2) People( reduction in population) would stop smoking and CTC could relocate to other countries. For reduction in population, With busy life most people would live single and would not bring up babies.
3)With the merger & acquisition and due to government heavy borrowing most of the banks and finance companies would become branches of central bank and delisted from CSe
4)once there is no shares to trade nestle would become harischandra or Swadeshi
5)LLUB and LIOC would leave once oil is found in Mannar basin

GMNet wrote:

mark wrote:pissuda ban?

Whô is this trading economics ?

another party of gmnet da?

Please do not accuse others. I am sure you know about ethics of the forum more than I do. I just posted something in this forum, and this is from a reputed website. So why are you'll trying to harass me. If you have a problem with the statistics please get in touch with the source authors and not me. I have seen enough repost from gossip sites in this forum that goes without any question.  I can understand whats going on with the forum and its membership. I wonder what changes it requires?

Firstly, We would normally sensor the gossip without a base. Members usually report such suspicious posts so you can also do the same.
Secondly, when a majority suggests that the reports are suspicious, it has some weight know? Look at these without glasses... use magnifiers if you want, but this is utterly stupid from economic point of view.
And the reason for this much ha huu with this post is that it came out at a time ppl are a bit worried what to do seeing market goin up 2 days then fall 3 days... This forcast is like a death penelty for them if you ask me.. I wonder a reputed firm as such (as per you) would do these kinda stupid acts that even the shoe shining boys would not..
And yes, SLS has given a good explanation so I dont wanna waste my time trying to find more to add cuz to me its pretty clear n concise.

here's my view;

Frankly speaking these nut heads predict ASI to rise to  6582 in 2015 and after 5 years to 6618, just 36 points.

The prediction are based on a regressive based moving average formula.

Either these ppl are utterly stupid or we're stupid to look at these crazy reports and base out investments.

They should give year-on-year analysis for us to see cuz now we dont know whether between
2014 - 2020, how much the ASI could rise and fall. Ultimately it can fall to 6618 if so..
Or is it 16618 they missed? LOL

Accordingly, in Jan 2014, inflation has come down to 4.40 as per their report. Have any of you noticed?

If any of you want to take a loan, wait till Q4, it can come down to 10.4% ;-)

Anyways GM, ur not at fault since its not you who did this.. But GM, ur holding a responsible post so I wonder whether  there's any point it publishing a scandalous report like this  

Hanoifortune wrote:Maybe He is right.By 2020,

1)JKH could be bankrupt after shifting from core business to casino
2) People( reduction in population) would stop smoking and CTC could relocate to other countries. For reduction in population, With busy life most people would live single and would not bring up babies.
3)With the merger & acquisition  and due to government heavy borrowing most of the banks and  finance companies would become branches of central bank and delisted from CSe
4)once there is no shares to trade nestle would become harischandra or Swadeshi
5)LLUB and LIOC would leave once oil is found in Mannar basin

Ohhh... now we're clear      

GMNet - I don't need to say more than already mentioned. You can at least argue for or against what you posted. We are not reading a newspaper to merely read what is posted and accept it. The figures look largely suspicious and unbelievable!
According to the chart, ASI, between 2015-2020 and 2020-2030 will increase more or less at the same rate as next for quarter! I mean, what? Other figures too.

It's not you who came up with it, but you can at least state your opinion.

මුලින් LOL කිව්වට, මෙහෙම දේකුත් වෙන්න පුළුවන්.

මේ කතා කරන්නේ තව අවුරුදු 6ක් ගැන නේ!
ඒත් මෙහෙම දෙයක් වුණොත්, market එක උඩට ගිහින්... ගිහින්... තවත් උඩට ගිහින්...2017-2018 විතර ආපහු bubble එකක් form වෙලා වැටෙනවා. බිමටම...

ඊට පස්සේ මේ කියන විදිහට ආපහු 6000ට යනවා.
කොහොමද  ටිකිරි මොළේ   

stumpy wrote:මුලින් LOL කිව්වට, මෙහෙම දේකුත් වෙන්න පුළුවන්.

මේ කතා කරන්නේ තව අවුරුදු 6ක් ගැන නේ!
ඒත් මෙහෙම දෙයක් වුණොත්,  market එක උඩට ගිහින්... ගිහින්... තවත් උඩට ගිහින්...2017-2018 විතර ආපහු bubble එකක් form වෙලා වැටෙනවා. බිමටම...  

ඊට පස්සේ මේ කියන විදිහට ආපහු 6000ට යනවා.
කොහොමද  ටිකිරි මොළේ   

This is what I said.. They should've given the year-on-year prediction to have more clarity   But its easy saying this and blame it on a regression formula later too    

"when you know for yourselves that certain things are unwholesome and wrong and bad then give them up ....... and you know for yourselves
certain thing are wholesome and good then accept them and follow them"
( Lord Buddha- KALAMA SUTTA)
GM net's quotation is unwholesome and bad

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:"when you know for yourselves that certain things are unwholesome and wrong and bad then give them up ....... and you know for yourselves
certain thing are wholesome and good then accept them and follow them"
( Lord Buddha- KALAMA SUTTA)
GM net's quotation is unwholesome and bad

Quoting a financial prediction of a third  party is unwholesome and bad!! How would you know whether it is true or false? How would you predict it yourself?
I guess you need to read more buddha teachings. I have just quoted one for your enlightenment.

“In the sky, there is no distinction of east and west; people create distinctions out of their own minds and then believe them to be true.” Lord Buddha.

GMNet thanks

This cant happen again. Out of all the posts I read ths looks suspicious to me. Why at a time all the developments are going well, sentiments are fine a company say this ASPI comes to 6618 in another 5-6 years?

This brings panic to the forum if you give a deep thought.

Light of Hope wrote:This cant happen again. Out of all the posts I read ths looks suspicious to me. Why at a time all the developments are going well, sentiments are fine a company say this ASPI comes to 6618 in another 5-6 years?

This brings panic to the forum if you give a deep thought.

Agree it brings panic. Hope and pray that market would take off soon! but what if, these predictions become true? Just like the Tsunami warning signal that was ignored by the authorities.

Looking back at the market, I regret for not exiting the market when index was around 7800. After that,  I look at everything with an open mind. And I ask myself the question, What If? and work out a contingency plan in the event for further decline in the stock market. I believe it is better to face or ready for the reality, instead of living or believing a dream. Only time will us whether it is a dream or a reality.

This is why it is important to give equal prominence to both negative and positive information and articles in this forum.

Mr. GM, its all about market circles. If you dont know get a chart and draw see your self. In 2016, market can come down. I'm not notradamus, neither do you or warren buffe. But dont you agree this reseach company could've given a more analytical view than just sayng it has no growth in 6 years?

Now, after seeing your message the first thing that come to mind was "why i still n the market" so if all thought about the same as me, the market will drag down instantly at least 2-3%.

so its still not market manipulation to you but ppl who educated the forum membership and posted news from various sources are the market manipulators right?

I do not want to take a side of anyone. I want to analyse the plaintiff you brought against the so called trusted characters (by many) are true. and Sorry if I hurt the sentiments but if all thos who accused are market manipulators so do you in a big way.

I do not see any sense in you logic Mr.GM. Now dont get upset and delete my comments. I want to hear your side as well to accuse others.

slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

Change the way We Think!

What a Change!!!

GMNet wrote:

slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?

Change the way We Think!

U mean how to manipulate the market using a forum like this?

This post would've never saw the light of the day or atleast you could have asked whether this is valid, this is a copy-paste but you could have the courtesy to ask members whether this can happen? Then nobody would have panicked and ask questions from you.

Then again what I see is that you always liked to stay away from commenting cuz you cannot give an answer.

There is a saying, "a fool is a wise man till he opens his mouth"

If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

GMNet wrote:If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

That's a valuable suggestion. I'm 100% agree on this. I think broker huts have that kinda information.

Any luck searching such?

Light of Hope wrote:

GMNet wrote:If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

That's a valuable suggestion. I'm 100% agree on this. I think broker huts have that kinda information.

Any luck searching such?

I tried.. but I could get it only from 2003. I really like to see the bubble we had it in late 80's and early 90' and compare it with crash we had in late 90's (When lot of stock brokers lost there job) and subsequently crash just before we ended the war. This will show the real story.

Thank you for agreeing with me for the first time!!

Mr.GM, as I told you, I dont support anyone. my objective is to see things in the fair and correct way without just bringing up false information and mis-guiding forum members and trying to raise hate on previous administration. to me, they've done nothing wrong and never did promotions. same goes for the other members in the manipulator list.

But I was trying to understand why you didnt call "the professional" a manipulator when it was all clear that mislead the forum and tried to manipulate BLUE. It was just easy than even looking at others posts to find faults. But u never didnt want to do it. LOL

All this time you've done that and I could'n agree with you for that but if you just try to do somethgin good that benefits the members, why shouldn't I agree.

Light of Hope wrote:Mr.GM, as I told you, I dont support anyone. my objective is to see things in the fair and correct way without just bringing up false information and mis-guiding forum members and trying to raise hate on previous administration. to me, they've done nothing wrong and never did promotions. same goes for the other members in the manipulator list.

But I was trying to understand why you didnt call "the professional" a manipulator when it was all clear that mislead the forum and tried to manipulate BLUE. It was just easy than even looking at others posts to find faults. But u never didnt want to do it. LOL

All this time you've done that and I could'n agree with you for that but if you just try to do somethgin good that benefits the members, why shouldn't I agree.

I hope that " Light of Hope " will be able to keep our hopes intact. Thanks mate for your effort.

Thank you for posting this. I want be careful and should be more discipline.
Now I think we should plan for mid and long term. because how de we know bull start next month, next quarter, second half of this year. 2015, 2016. 2017. 2018,. 2019 or 2020. I got a good idea. during next five years at least if I get three or more years of dividend I can earn get half of my stock cost, any bull trend make me more rich.

GMNet wrote:If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

1985 - 2003
http://sharemarket-srilanka.deleted.co.uk/2013/07/cse-historical-bull-and-bear-markets.html

Forecast by Trading Economics
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast



CSE: Historical Bull and Bear Markets 1985 -2003


Above chart indicate how ASI moved during the 18 Year Period.
Look at the 10 Year period between 1991 to 2001. ASI has lost approximately 400 points!!. This might provide some form of trend analysis to determine what would be the ASI in 2020. This might prove that Trade Economics ASI Forecast may be correct!!

Chart courtesy of Redbulls.

GMNet wrote:
Look at the 10 Year period between 1991 to 2002. Hardly any gains!!
This might provide some form of trend analysis to determine what would be the ASI in 2020. This might prove that Trade Economics ASI Forecast may be correct!!

Graph thanks to Redbulls.

In Sri-lanka 1991-2002 is known as the decade of the hung over president and the terrorist war. With those two things no one needed to invest in the CSE because you could get 24% return from Suntel debentures.

But good work GMNet, bring some negativity. Market is too positive the last two days. We need some posts about ASI 4,800

What do you think of the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?

*Sanctions or embargo from USA and Europe
*Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu/India
*Economic Invasion by China.
*Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
*Shortage of self generated Power in Sri Lanka.
*Tsunami, Earquakes other natural disasters
*3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.
*War Crime charges against the country.

Then ASI can easily be 4800!!