All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

Thank you for posting this. I want be careful and should be more discipline.
Now I think we should plan for mid and long term. because how de we know bull start next month, next quarter, second half of this year. 2015, 2016. 2017. 2018,. 2019 or 2020. I got a good idea. during next five years at least if I get three or more years of dividend I can earn get half of my stock cost, any bull trend make me more rich.

GMNet wrote:If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

1985 - 2003
http://sharemarket-srilanka.deleted.co.uk/2013/07/cse-historical-bull-and-bear-markets.html

Forecast by Trading Economics
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast



CSE: Historical Bull and Bear Markets 1985 -2003


Above chart indicate how ASI moved during the 18 Year Period.
Look at the 10 Year period between 1991 to 2001. ASI has lost approximately 400 points!!. This might provide some form of trend analysis to determine what would be the ASI in 2020. This might prove that Trade Economics ASI Forecast may be correct!!

Chart courtesy of Redbulls.

GMNet wrote:
Look at the 10 Year period between 1991 to 2002. Hardly any gains!!
This might provide some form of trend analysis to determine what would be the ASI in 2020. This might prove that Trade Economics ASI Forecast may be correct!!

Graph thanks to Redbulls.

In Sri-lanka 1991-2002 is known as the decade of the hung over president and the terrorist war. With those two things no one needed to invest in the CSE because you could get 24% return from Suntel debentures.

But good work GMNet, bring some negativity. Market is too positive the last two days. We need some posts about ASI 4,800

What do you think of the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?

*Sanctions or embargo from USA and Europe
*Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu/India
*Economic Invasion by China.
*Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
*Shortage of self generated Power in Sri Lanka.
*Tsunami, Earquakes other natural disasters
*3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.
*War Crime charges against the country.

Then ASI can easily be 4800!!

GMNet wrote:What do you think the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?
Sanction or embargo from USA and Europe
Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu
Economic Invasion by China.
Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
Severe shortage of Power Generation in Sri Lanka.
Tsunami or Earquakes.
3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.

Good news. We can have ASI 1,000. But people will fault you for posting a positive news about ASI 6,618. Can't you get a trend forecast showing ASI 1,000 in 2030 (Earquakes maybe a big problem for Sri-Lanka at that time)

Jiggysaurus wrote:

GMNet wrote:What do you think the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?
Sanction or embargo from USA and Europe
Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu
Economic Invasion by China.
Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
Severe shortage of Power Generation in Sri Lanka.
Tsunami or Earquakes.
3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.

Good news. We can have ASI 1,000. But people will fault you for posting a positive news about ASI 6,618. Can't you get a trend forecast showing ASI 1,000 in 2030 (Earquakes maybe a big problem for Sri-Lanka at that time)

Better Go abroad..

Jiggysaurus wrote:

GMNet wrote:What do you think the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?
Sanction or embargo from USA and Europe
Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu
Economic Invasion by China.
Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
Severe shortage of Power Generation in Sri Lanka.
Tsunami or Earquakes.
3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.

Good news. We can have ASI 1,000. But people will fault you for posting a positive news about ASI 6,618. Can't you get a trend forecast showing ASI 1,000 in 2030 (Earquakes maybe a big problem for Sri-Lanka at that time)

Better Go abroad..

Forecast by Trading Economics
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast



CSE: Historical Bull and Bear Markets 1985 -2003


Above chart indicate how ASI moved during the 18 Year Period.
Look at the 10 Year period between 1991 to 2001. ASI has lost approximately 400 points!!. This might provide some form of trend analysis to determine what would be the ASI in 2020. This might prove that Trade Economics ASI Forecast may be correct!!

What can happen in Sri Lanka during the period between 2015 to 2030.

*Sanctions or embargo from USA and Europe
*Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu/India
*Economic Invasion by China.
*Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
*Shortage of self generated Power in Sri Lanka.
*Tsunami, Earquakes other natural disasters
*3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.
*War Crime charges against the country.

Then ASI can easily be 4800!!

Keep up the good work GMNet. You are nicely balancing the forum.

GMnet has given extreme case scenario

Following also possible

No sanction from USA under friendly govt which understand our strength and weakness. No human rights problems also

Tamil nadu will not invade SL because of US support to sri lanka

China invention not possible when America and India support SL

Act of god common to any country

China usually do not like to create unnecessary problems by invading other countries

Third world war not possible under present balance of power
If happen that will be end of Human civilization  in this world
not only SL stock market

This govt has over estimated our strength and under estimated our weakness because of war victory

GMnet may be correct under present scenario under practical mahinda chithanaya

Stated mahinda Chithanaya what we support is different form
present one in pratice

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:This govt has over estimated our strength and under estimated our weakness because of war victory

GMnet may be correct under present scenario under practical mahinda chithanaya

Stated mahinda Chithanaya what we support is different form
present one in pratice

I agree with Mr D.G.Dayaratne

VALUEPICK wrote:Thank you for posting this. I want be careful and should be more discipline.
Now I think we should plan for mid and long term. because how de we know bull start next month, next quarter, second half of this year. 2015, 2016. 2017. 2018,. 2019 or 2020. I got a good idea. during next five years at least if I get three or more years of dividend I can earn get half of my stock cost, any bull trend make me more rich.

Very interesting answer!

We can buy great value business in any type of market. Value investment creates wealth in the long run. Value investors can forget market direction, volatility, charts, boxes, patterns and other waves. They are long term winners. How can we measure success of companies within one quarter or less than two years? At least we should give five to six years time period to the mangers that run their business to analyse their performance. It is not easy to run business as others thinks. There are risks. I believe even now it is better to concentrate on value stocks. Market prediction is not a good thing. Value Companies link to mega trends in Sri-Lanka is ideal place to park money.

If you check the link in 1st of GMNet, the forecast has been revised.......

Aparade meyala gahagate ........

SHARK wrote:If you check the link in 1st of GMNet, the forecast has been revised.......

Aparade meyala gahagate ........

by the way, this profile pic is great

GM Net you have forgotten about the most important thing. With the boom in hotel rooms, apartments and growth of elderly persons Sri Lanka is definitely going to face a water crisis. We might be able to import drinking water but what about water for general use.

As long as stock market stays strong stocks also will stay strong. We are seeing continues strength in the financial sector and gradually it will spread to other sectors as well. It is hard to tell buying point and selling point in a major uptrend. If we analyse some  stocks such CFIN, LFIN,COMB, SAMP, JKH, SPEN, TAFL, HHL, WATA and  MASK etc sold around Rs.180, 100, 110, 180, 200, 90, 40, 40, 10, 9 etc. All of above stocks have gone to next level due to current market situation. Some stocks could break their 52 high in a major uptrend. If they announce attractive earnings, strong cash flow, higher ROE and produce strong balance sheets during next 10 quarters and if we see one of the great bull markets they could break their all time high as well. Still some value sectors and value stocks have become laggards in the current uptrend. I believe on valuations and better prospects those value sectors including out of favour stocks too should go up.

As an analyst I would not forecast anything beyond 3 years. You cannot blame anyone. Blame the source of the which is supposed to be a reputed organization for trend analysis.

Some of the comments made by the members are funny. Its nice to look back on some of the past predictions.

most funniest part is tamil nadu invasion of sri lanka oooooohhhhhhhhhhhh  they dont have single military unite 
where is this Gmnet some time may dead during the invasion

Revised Edition by Trading Economics:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast