ASI forecast 2014

Sstar · 1 ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:10 pm

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It anybody's guess what would be the highest point of the All Share Index (ASI) of the Colombo Stock Exchange during the Calendar year 2014. I am sure you would take the poll and see whether your guess is correct.

Last edited by Sstar on Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:29 pm; edited 2 times in total

SHARK aka TAH · 2 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:36 pm

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I VOTED 8000 Very Happy

SHARK aka TAH · 3 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:41 pm

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but surely 7500 the way its moving.

a neg view would be 6500-6600 Very Happy

(pullback)

MARKETWATCH2 · 4 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:41 pm

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SHARK wrote:I VOTED 8000

I am also.

SHARK aka TAH · 5 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:42 pm

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since no 6500 i cast 8000

Sstar · 6 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:18 pm

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SHARK wrote:since no 6500 i cast 8000

We have already passed 6500. So it is not relevant any more.
Poll means the highest ASI level during year! not end of the year.

VALUEPICK · 7 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:45 pm

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Before market reach 8000 both JKH and COMB should pass Rs.250 and Rs.150 respectively. There should be some strength in some market movers such as SAMP, HNB, NDB and DFCC and few more stocks as well. We should see strength in many sectors and stocks. Then market will go above 7500.When we see index level around 7500 to 8000 we may see active trading in many stocks such as large, mid and small stocks. Everybody is going to benefit irrespective of they hold small, mid and large stocks. Of course there could be some breakout stocks as well. Beauty is this market has plenty of value sectors and stocks. Tomorrow could be very big day for JKH. In the meantime we should target attractive individual stocks that we like where we can get short, mid and long term returns. Still there are massively undervalued sectors and stocks in the market. Some stocks are massively undervalued. When compare with market these stocks are trading at a great discount.

Positive factors

Lower oil prices
Lower interest rate
Gradual improvement in weather in some rice production areas
Higher export earnings from garments, Tea and other industry products
Good Tea output and more garment related activities
Higher tourist arrivals
More construction activities
More activities in the money and capital market

Good luck!

NC · 8 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:42 pm

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I say 7500. Very Happy

ahamed112 · 9 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:46 pm

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7500.

NC · 10 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:16 pm

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@ sstar, is there any closing date or period we can vote, unless I can exactly say the highest point during the year, at 31st of December.... Laughing

Sstar · 11 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:50 pm

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NC wrote:@ sstar, is there any closing date or period we can vote, unless I can exactly say the highest point during the year, at 31st of December....

Poll is available for 100 days.

soileconomy · 12 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:07 pm

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7500 is more healthy.my prediction is that.

VALUEPICK · 13 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:45 am

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NOW JKH and COMB are trading around Rs.249 and Rs.148 respectively very closer to their psychological barriers. It is very interesting. Neglected great value stocks, stock with earning potentials and some new stocks in almost all the sectors also are gradually gathering some momentum now. What does it means?

A common mistake is applying the wrong indicator to the wrong market condition. Indicators don’t predict – they confirm. In this type of market winning stocks can be picked by first understanding the price pattern and then using an indicator to make stronger analysis. One of the most profitable strategies is getting back on a trend when it starts its former direction. One way to succeed this is to watch price and the trend line. Strong trends usually resume their former direction and it’s important to know when to take another position.

Good luck!

stevenapple · 14 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sun Aug 31, 2014 9:54 am

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VALUEPICK wrote:NOW JKH and COMB are trading around Rs.249 and Rs.148 respectively very closer to their psychological barriers. It is very interesting. Neglected great value stocks, stock with earning potentials and some new stocks in almost all the sectors also are gradually gathering some momentum now. What does it means?

A common mistake is applying the wrong indicator to the wrong market condition. Indicators don’t predict – they confirm. In this type of market winning stocks can be picked by first understanding the price pattern and then using an indicator to make stronger analysis. One of the most profitable strategies is getting back on a trend when it starts its former direction. One way to succeed this is to watch price and the trend line. Strong trends usually resume their former direction and it’s important to know when to take another position.

Good luck!

Good one VP.

Sstar · 15 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:32 am

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Very analytical VP. Thanks for the contribution.
Poll indicate more weightage towards 7500. This could be due to the revision of expected economic targets for the year end based on current sentiment and interest rate impact on growth?

Invest-Wise · 16 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Sep 04, 2014 4:43 pm

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MARKETWATCH2 wrote:

SHARK wrote:I VOTED 8000

With JKH buying lining up 7500 is easily attainable I feel. Also I guess the banks will contribute after this quarter earnings. Dont forget there will be some pull back for sure I feel. So I average t out at 7,500

Sstar · 17 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:25 am

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7200 is a clear possibility. Hope it will reach this target by next 2 weeks.

puliyanam · 18 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:40 am

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I note that there are at least 20 votes for ASI above 9000 before December...What can I say...CSE has consistently surprised us, thanks to some of the participants...

7100 in sight if johnny crosses 250 convincingly.... may be next week.....

bandulawee · 19 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:05 pm

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I think we'll go up to around 7,600 high and pull back to 7,500 by December with less trading during holiday season.

VALUEPICK · 20 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sat Sep 06, 2014 4:55 am

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As I expected COMB passed its psychological barrier Rs.150 and trading around Rs.155/- now. JKH is too hovering around its psychological barrier Rs.250/. Market should pass 7100 barrier next. Market leaders are leading the market while other stocks too are heading for positive territory. Even one by one out of favour stocks, stocks which had short pause and pullback also are gathering gradual momentum now. Some of them can become break out stocks too. Some illiquid stocks have become liquid stocks now. Just like illiquid stocks such as SUN and REXP Remaining illiquid stocks also will have liquidity when we see active market in the coming months. Good weather was mainly limited to some areas of the country during last couple of months. Now rain has reported even in grain producing areas. So we can expect good grain harvest and lower grain prices in the coming months and quarters. In addition oil prices and raw materials prices will stay low in the coming quarters. As a result of this cost of production will come down in many industries and companies. Up to August 2014 tourist, Tea, garments and other industry export income has gone up. Similarly we are seeing improved foreign remittances to the country. If we see quality western tea season this time, high grown tea prices will have some of the record tea prices. Rubber prices will stay low in the short run. Lower interest rate will reduce interest cost in the coming quarters. We will see more money and capital market operations too in the coming months and coming quarters. This market has more legs as there are many value stocks. Some sectors/stocks are trading below the P/E ratio of 8. At least they should go to p/ e ratio of 15 in a major uptrend. Investors, traders and analysts are busy with following popular stocks and stocks that they are following. So everybody will miss some big winners in the market during next eight months to two years. Good luck!

Antonym · 21 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sat Sep 06, 2014 8:24 am

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NC wrote:I say 7500.

When you consider that the market has broken through to a new 52-week high, it has automatically created a new support and resistance level. A new price target has been set by subtracting the 52-week low (5,604.59) from the 52-week high (7,087.41) and then multiplying the resultant figure by the Fibonacci number of 1.618. By adding that to the 52-week low price, a new price target has been created: 8,004 for the ASI. Assuming that the trajectory of the 52-week trend line holds steady, that should happen during April 2015.

If we use the (less significant) Fibonacci number of 1.272 and the same trend line, we are on course for 7,491 during December 2014.

Caution: The above predictions are based on my limited understanding of technical analysis and with inputs from http://finance.zacks.com. However, the prices of stocks are influenced by a variety of factors and are, in fact, less predictable than a woman's moods.

puliyanam · 22 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:37 am

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7200 in sight, possibly before end of the week... may need a little support from CTC, NEST, CARS etc as JKH and COMB are already at 52 week high and moving up further....

nickjava · 23 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:40 pm

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puliyanam wrote:7200 in sight, possibly before end of the week... may need a little support from CTC, NEST, CARS etc as JKH and COMB are already at 52 week high and moving up further....

yes. its good to see index is moving. personally i like to see a steady run. so that market would sustain.

puliyanam · 24 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Sep 11, 2014 10:30 am

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nickjava wrote:

puliyanam wrote:7200 in sight, possibly before end of the week... may need a little support from CTC, NEST, CARS etc as JKH and COMB are already at 52 week high and moving up further....

yes. its good to see index is moving. personally i like to see a steady run. so that market would sustain.

7200 crossed Very Happy

puliyanam · 25 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:40 am

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7300 in sight.. though turnover is somewhat slow.

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ASI forecast 2014

1 ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:10 pm

Sstar

2 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:36 pm

SHARK aka TAH

3 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:41 pm

SHARK aka TAH

4 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:41 pm

MARKETWATCH2

5 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:42 pm

SHARK aka TAH

6 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:18 pm

Sstar

7 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:45 pm

VALUEPICK

8 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:42 pm

NC

9 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:46 pm

ahamed112

10 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:16 pm

NC

11 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:50 pm

Sstar

12 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:07 pm

soileconomy

13 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:45 am

VALUEPICK

14 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sun Aug 31, 2014 9:54 am

stevenapple

15 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:32 am

Sstar

16 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Sep 04, 2014 4:43 pm

Invest-Wise

17 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:25 am

Sstar

18 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:40 am

puliyanam

19 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:05 pm

bandulawee

20 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sat Sep 06, 2014 4:55 am

VALUEPICK

21 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Sat Sep 06, 2014 8:24 am

Antonym

22 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:37 am

puliyanam

23 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:40 pm

nickjava

24 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Thu Sep 11, 2014 10:30 am

puliyanam

25 Re: ASI forecast 2014 Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:40 am

puliyanam

26 Re: ASI forecast 2014

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