Technical Analytics & Charts (2)

traderathome wrote:

traderathome wrote:OOOps sorry ...

That was the naked chart......while i was dressing to get to my work...

Here you go the nicely drawn HPP chart on S&PSL20 Index for the weeks ahead

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Happy Trading

TAH

oops looks the chart is on course with reality......

will there be renewed interest from coming week or will it push hard one more time break below LAST Lower LOW.

TAH

Two reversals came correct as predicted on HPP thread....1st was a 113FIB 3150 and secondly today..........

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This was 2nd....Reversal happened today...
Slightly worried on the reversal it may happen around 3200-3300 on profit take. Sellers can hurt this Run..

TAH

JKH Short term trade toward 225 or extension 240 max.

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There were long awaited friends requests that were not accepted by me, due to an oversight.

I have accepted all your requests, of course those who sent me.

so no more pending at the moment
sorry for the delay.

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I dont like to trade on JKH when its direction appears less certain on Technical PoV.
The Risk Reward factor is too narrow to get in to this trade.
So i dont like to burn my fingers when the Big Sharks playing their Game.
I rather wait for calm waters to get in at the right price on JKH.
It will look much easy to enter for smaller fishes like me, when all the news and other issues have subsided.

traderathome wrote:Well the Market does not behave according to my thinking in reality, but i thought i can now play with some fancy patterns on VONE.

That is to have a smaller Head & Shoulder bottom in a Big H&S. Will this be a reality, only time will tell.

That pattern i am seeing is totally hypothetical, so do not confuse it with your decision making.

I am not trying to influence your decision by any means......

But if we can develop a program to detect patterns well in advance before such formation BASED on HIGH PROBABILITIEs , wouldnt that be fantastic

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I do remember me and small were able to detect the H&S of JKH when it was trading around 180 before the upsurge, this was some years back.

one should be able to find that posts where discussed on lengths if he or she could dig into my HPP old thread from the beginning.

Lets see what happens with this one in few years.

Happy to see VONE making some move on technical....we may see 17-18Rs ...if the momentum takes us there

TAH, SAMP whats happening?

SAMP ...160-162.5 a possible reversal zone.

No money to collect @ 160 because i bought ASIY

This is the ASIY.N chart.

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Possible short term targets 4Rs and extension Rs 5/- on current momentum.

Disclosure: Own considerable qty. of ASIY @ current market price.

What is happening in CSE at the moment is retailers are getting a taste of swing trade opportunities.
Can this momentum trading opportunities slowly change in to a bull run on sentiment changes.

I am of the opinion if this happens in gradual phase, more opportunities will make some very good profit and more volatility will shift the sentiments to a controlled bull run.

This will be a different ball game compared to last short rally we had last year.

what we will find this time would be the strong caps making a slow move... and the rally continuing attracting more retailer participation.

This is a good time to accumulate (BUY & HOLD) as better rally will pay you off handsomely if you position well.

When will the Tea Rally start

Better to start a business as interest rates low-RCB poll

Commercial banks the safest investment
View(s): 66

A street survey this week by Colombo-based Research Consultancy Bureau (RCB), in conjunction with the Business Times, on the most-safest investment options has given a ‘thumbs-up’ to commercial banks.

Residents in middle-class societies were also wary of investing in the share market, saying all of a sudden shares prices go up as they are controlled by ‘government bigwigs’. “We deposited in the share market but did not get benefits resulting in losing the very deposits,” one woman said.

Interviewing several respondents on the street, the poll revealed that 99.4 per cent opted for bank investments with just 3.8 per cent favouring finance companies. There were also respondents who invested in more than one option, as seen in the graphic.The polls were done separately by the BT (on email) and its polling partner RCB and the results were not only revealing but occasionally different from one another. (See Page 1 for BT poll results)

For instance, while the RCB poll showed near 100 percent support for bank investments, that figure was 50 per cent in the case of the BT poll with investors having 2-3 other options.

Respondents raised concern over the cost of living saying the interest from deposits was not enough to meet day-to-day costs.
“It is better to start a business now that the interest on the standard deposits is low,” said one respondent.
Other comments:

=Because of the danger in depositing in state banks it is advisable to deposit in private banks though the interest is low.
=After people have been cheated by Golden Key, Sakvithi and Danduwam Mudalalis there is no confidence in private investment options too.
=We use to invest in gold but since gold prices fell, even that is doubtful.
=The best investment is in real estate since land prices are rising in Colombo. This is better than saving in banks.
=Fixed deposits are better than profits from cultivation in agriculture.
=Gone are the days when we had money to save or invest.
=Unlike those days now we cannot keep a fixed deposit in one bank for fear of bankruptcy. It is better to withdraw such deposits when there is a problem emerging and invest in another bank.
=Bank reports are also not accurate. I am a lawyer and I know how it is.
=We got caught to Sakvithi and now we have no confidence in finance companies too.
=The sweet stories told about private banks in the advertisements disappear when we do business with them.
=People talk about teak cultivation. Some talk about investing without even knowing what it is. It is doubtful if after even 15 years one gets any benefits.

Letter
Another finance company bites the dust

Reference to the editorial comment in the Businss Times last week headlined “Finance companies: Again and again”, I would like to thank you for writing and advising the general public on this topic. The articles published in line with it were a great help since I am also having problems with a similar company at present.

This company is called the Nations Building Society Ltd, where my brother and I have deposited our savings;

- Mine -
Rs. 515,333
- My brother – Rs. 898,000/- + 50,000/- each for three children to receive Rs. 1 million each in 21 years.
Recently this company writes to us saying that they are unable to pay these monies and that it will be handed over to a new company Nations Lanka Finance and the payment plan would be as follows ;
-80% will be issued as shares (Non-Voting Ordinary Shares) and the balance
-20% repayment in 60 installments from Sept 2013

When I went to meet them they showed a company profile of Nawaloka Group of companies in which Nations Lanka is a subsidiary and that we will have to follow up this with them in future, since the shares will be issued through them.

Actually this is our hard earned money, for our children’s future, and we have no say in this. Isn’t this unfair? Like many companies this company too was registered with the Central Bank which has , not done anything about it
We will be taking legal action against this. We urge you to keep the public informed on these developments.

Mrs. N.P. Narendran
Himbutana

http://www.sundaytimes.lk/130922/business-times/better-to-start-a-business-as-interest-rates-low-rcb-poll-62549.html

Why I Bought ASIY.N Chart with my Technical PoV.

All explained in a nutshell.......

Fundamentally I dont have enough information of its positives and negatives.

The decision is based on Pure Technical Analysis.

I hope this would help ASIY.N lovers.....

Please Do your own Due Diligence, I am not responsible for your Losses, Investing in Equities carry significant risk while it can bring Huge profits.

I own ASIY in my Portfolio a considerable qty. @ CMP.
This is not a BUY,HOLD or SELL recommendation.
God has given you a BRAIN to think so Trade with care....

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Good Luck
Smiling TAH a.k.a Ravin

Here is the Proof of my stake in ASIY.N

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No hidden agenda....

Dont expect overnight results on this trade...be patient and give time to for the trade to blossom.....with regular review and stop loss adjustment.although i do not like to give time frames, in case the trade set up goes against a hard sop loss of below 2.1 is encouraged.should the trade go our way we will review it on daily one time in the morning and just before close regularly.hope to see more feedback on this trade and hopefully there will be retail investors with me to walk through this trade from monday onwards.
Please note Target prices are only for indicative purpose only if position our self in nice upward trend then we will revise the stop loss & targets on regular basis.

Expected return

80.c/3.1Rs*100=25-26% per annum (assume 1 year holding, if less then the return would be high in % term)

Risk Reward:
Rs 2.1-3.1=Rs1/-
Rs 4.1 (minimum)-3.1=Rs1/-
Conservative short term= Rs 1/- to Rs 1/- RR

Longterm (Open) = Rs 7.1-3.1=Rs 4 so
Risk Reward Ratio stands @ 1:4
Thats a nice ratio.



Good luck
TAH

traderathome wrote:Here is the Proof of my stake in ASIY.N

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No hidden agenda....

ASIY is a good one.Highly iliqd. Unfortunately I exit before XD date.My average was 2.6. 

what was the reason for the EXIT if i may know ?

Thanks

traderathome wrote:what was the reason for the EXIT if i may know ?

Thanks

The day it announced dividend there was red across the board and it was in green.Market sentiment didn't improve even when XD was nearing.So I exit before XD. Anyway could have bought after XD.

While i don't know the reason you bought @ 2.6, but it turned out to be a good decision and you should have HELD it at that price provided if you had bought after price fell to 2.2 levels i mean on the bounce (bottomed out).
Anyhow Technically recommend 3.1-3Rs as entry price on the break-out, this could turn out to be a fake break-out you never know until this is shown on the chart. but for me this trade set up is valid.

TAH

LSE wrote:
Opportunities are usually disquised as hard work,
so most people don't recognize them.

~ Ann Landers

Thank You THA. I really appreciate your effort.

Thanks LSE.  

traderathome wrote:Here is the Proof of my stake in ASIY.N

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No hidden agenda....

Thanks Trader
you are.........
 

A family is at the dinner table. The son asks his father, 'Dad, how many kinds of boobs are there?'
The father, surprised, answers, 'Well, son, a woman goes through three phases.
In her 20s her boobs are like melons, round & firm.
In her 30s t o 40s, they are like pears, still nice but hanging a bit.
After 50, they are like onions'.
'Onions?'
'Yes, you see them and they make you cry.'
This infuriated his wife and daughter, so the daughter said, 'Mom, how many kinds of 'willies' are there?'

The mother smile s and answers, 'Well dear, a man goes through three phases also.
In his 20s his willy is like an oak tree, mighty and hard.
In his 30s and 40s, it is like a birch, flexible but reliable.
After his 50s, it is like a Christmas tree'.
'A Christmas tree?'
'Yes --- dead from the root up and the balls are just for decoration'

Today (Friday) has seen many changing hands of ASIY peaking 3.8 and settling intraday so far around 3.7.

Seems that ASIY now trading PAR with CTBL

TAH

I have seen few members are seeking direction of CIFL.

At the moment i am staying Neutral on Technical side,however we are seeing based on past price movements CIFL has formed almost couple of HPP patterns.

I am looking towards
1.90
2.10 for BULLS

With Possible 2.60 or 2.90

With Down side
0.60

The BULLS have so far able to hold 1.10 & 1Rs (Price Band below 0.90)

But looking at the CIFL movement as long as 1.1 is held there is a good chance it can move up.

CIFL is a highly liquid counter, with prevailing disadvantage it has on the company name, any good news can restart its run towards a near term 1.50 and any bad news can ruin the party for .60/.50cents.

Trade with Care
TAH

i will post the chart on CIFL later in the day.

Here Is the 1st Part of the CHART on CIFL

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For any Harmonic Price Pattern, we need 2 points initially to draw the potential Pattern.In CIFL i see 2 previous HIGH points (X) LOW points (A) as extreme points at present.This is very important to be able to identify the significant price action levels.
We can see a minimum 38.2% rise from Last Low (A) to B and that completed the 3 rd point. after initial burst we see a another pullback towards point (C).This is the point we are in at the moment.
Those who bought @ point (C).Part of retailers who bought at C sold probably big chunk @ 1.40 levels, that brought the Price towards 1.1-1.2 and few got traded @ 1.immediately it got settled @1.1. we are seeing few trades changing hands today @1.2 but not significant.
If extreme good news that market would see in this counter then one could target around 3-3.5 levels. That would complete the BEARISH CRAB pattern.
Well i have not gauged the accuracy of such pattern in CSE.
The stop loss would be below 0.90c/0.80c for this trade.

The 2nd pattern we are looking at it in my next post on CIFL is also BEARISH BAT pattern which indicates a modest point of reversal around Rs 2/2.1.
This trade better if entered around .60c (c) point with Stop loss around .40c
I wish price will fall if any bad news such as current directors not able to find new cash infusion.
So lets hope these directors are able to find new cash to revive the battered finance co.
There are certain elements trying to maximise their political motives.
Its better to revive the company with constructive plan of repayment to the innocent depositors in my opinion.

TAH

Sorry Guys, Here is the CIFL chart with Points (XAB & C)
This should help the newcomers to know as to what we are discussing.

Please trade with extreme care, as we are basically trading CIFL on news driven.This share can be very volatile on any NEWS given the present situation, so better to trade with some clear guidelines.I always recommend a STOPLOSS which you might have seen in my last post.

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This is the other trade on CIFL Bearish BAT.

The trade is not initiated as yet.

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Its always recommended that only 2-5% of your PF is used on trades.

This is not a BUY,SELL or HOLD advise.
Dont blame me for LOSSES.

traderathome wrote:A family is at the dinner table. The son asks his father, 'Dad, how many kinds of boobs are there?'
The father, surprised, answers, 'Well, son, a woman goes through three phases.
In her 20s her boobs are like melons, round & firm.
In her 30s t o 40s, they are like pears, still nice but hanging a bit.
After 50, they are like onions'.
'Onions?'
'Yes, you see them and they make you cry.'
This infuriated his wife and daughter, so the daughter said, 'Mom, how many kinds of 'willies' are there?'

The mother smile s and answers, 'Well dear, a man goes through three phases also.
In his 20s his willy is like an oak tree, mighty and hard.
In his 30s and 40s, it is like a birch, flexible but reliable.
After his 50s, it is like a Christmas tree'.


'A Christmas tree?'
'Yes --- dead from the root up and the balls are just for decoration'

Nice One

well friends
I too hold asiy and i too purchased below 3.00 and got the dividend. my only conern is they paid 38 cents when their eps is 36. but good share to buy, hold or to play