EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

Mithooshan wrote:Once the collection is done, Price shot up today. I don’t expect the price to come down tomorrow. Shares engaged in exports will have a good time.

Expo has given dividend in the past and they might give a dividend as well.

EXPO P/E - 10
Estimated EPS - Minimum 2.40
Market Price Justifiable with the support of Fundamentals - RS.24

Not a buy or sell recommendation and please do not buy if you think the share is overvalued.

Mr. X wrote:what if they put island wide curfew this weekend??

Mr. X wrote:what if they put island wide curfew this weekend??

Captain wrote:Dont forget electrucity energy generation sector too, there is lot goverment assistance for this sector

Exit

Captain wrote:Dont forget electrucity energy generation sector too, there is lot goverment assistance for this sector

Exit

DKbogols wrote:EXPO EPS for Q2 is expected to be more than Q1. Expect over Rs. 2/- EPS for Q1+Q2. Annualise this you get Rs. 4/- + eps for the full year. At a conservative PE of 8 times (below market), the value of this share should be Rs. 32/- +. Global freight rates haven't changed, there is no reason for them not to do well in Q3 & Q4 too. However, there were one-off gains in Q1&Q2 due to charter flights moving PPE - which won't repeat in Q3/Q4 but still, we can expect around Rs. 4/- EPS for this year. At curent market price of Rs. 13.30/-, EXPO can easily double or even triple in value within 1-2 months.

subash81 wrote:Tomorrow 15

DKbogols wrote:Hi ONTHEMONEY

Yes, my estimates are conservative generally. This is way any upside to my expectations would be an added bonus 

In terms of EXPO, yes you are correct, PE of 8 times is severely understated compared to the mother company purchases which was around 20-25x PER. But we cannot expect similar levels of PE multiples in the current scenario since the company is more matured & generally negative outlook in the global scale.

However, from my in depth analysis, it is clear that EXPO is currently benefiting from high freight rates while effectively maintaining same GP % - meaning that this is a direct addition to bottom line (since overheads are fairly fixed). 

Also note that this company is hedged against the dollar. With LKR expected to hit around 220+, this will add a further 15%-20% to top line revenues. This too will add further to the bottom line and to future EPS.

Moreover, this company is positively correlated to C19. With a possible vaccination 6 months away, and considering at may take a minimum of 18-24 months to completely eradicate C19 after vaccine, the medium term outlook is very strong. 

If I am not being conservative, I would have applied at least 15x PE. Meaning that this share is worth Rs. 60/- to 70/-.

Adding more to the story, due to high demand for the share with low supply in free float, the above valuation is not entirely out of the realms of short term possibility/realisation. 

This is not a buy or sell recommendation - just an analysis from an independent investor.

Invest-Wise wrote:Just hold nd wait and watch the ride. When results are published early November you will see this over 20/- easily. 16.20 was their all time high. 14 was IPO issue. It will break ATH next week for sure if things are externally ok and no more Covid shocks are present. Disclosure- Im holding Expo.