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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Is today the last day of trading VONE?

Is today the last day of trading VONE?

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1Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Is today the last day of trading VONE? Mon Jul 18, 2011 2:34 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
In the last hour of today's trading VONE sellers showed a panic behavior, just like this is the last day of trading VONE? To me this is an indication of lack of confidence in the market. What do you think?

nahor


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
yeah, pretty worried with VONE behaviour. there was so much talk about it performing well, but ..................... SFS took a beating as well.

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
In the last hour of today's trading VONE sellers showed a panic behavior, just like this is the last day of trading VONE? To me this is an indication of lack of confidence in the market. What do you think?

The market is very weak at these levels. I highly doubt it will hold.

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
In the last hour of today's trading VONE sellers showed a panic behavior, just like this is the last day of trading VONE? To me this is an indication of lack of confidence in the market. What do you think?

Agreed. Though VONE has regained , it was fake and manulpulated rally, which can not sustain on its own. Further, it alone can not raise the market confidence which has been quite negative in the recent past.



Last edited by salt on Mon Jul 18, 2011 4:28 pm; edited 1 time in total

a_randy

a_randy
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
GO UP GO UP
VONE & SHL

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
To be simple let's consider a holding company which has subsidiaries that all are listed (fair-value). Mathematically, value of the holding company should be around summation of each subsidiary's proportional ownership (precisely, the holding company worth lesser than the proportional summation due to conglomeration discount).

Since VONE has newly acquired subsidiaries/investments, fair value of VONE should be around its book value, that is 23-25. Further, if VONE has acquired subsidiaries during last "bubble" period (in fact they did), if market continue to go down, fair-value of subsidiaries/investments may go down permanently resulting goodwill impairments as I explain in http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5059-vallibel-one-analysis . This causes VONE to further go down as market declines. Remember that pure holding company is more or less a unit trust which is valued at book value!

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
This causes VONE to further go down as market declines. Remember that pure holding company is more or less a unit trust which is valued at book value!

technically they should be less than book value.

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:
@Academic wrote:
To be simple let's consider a holding company which has subsidiaries that all are listed (fair-value). Mathematically, value of the holding company should be around summation of each subsidiary's proportional ownership (precisely, the holding company worth lesser than the proportional summation due to conglomeration discount).

Since VONE has newly acquired subsidiaries/investments, fair value of VONE should be around its book value, that is 23-25. Further, if VONE has acquired subsidiaries during last "bubble" period (in fact they did), if market continue to go down, fair-value of subsidiaries/investments may go down permanently resulting goodwill impairments as I explain in http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5059-vallibel-one-analysis . This causes VONE to further go down as market declines. Remember that pure holding company is more or less a unit trust which is valued at book value!

technically they should be less than book value.

Yes.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
My thinking is; the companies that are under VONE umbrella are high performance companies.. Look at th revenues of LFIN, SAMP, RCL.. for the last financial year.. Holder of these companies really should be shining on its value, the share value when these are doing well..
But the question is; market has taken a beating.. All these companies have gone down drastically just becuz the market sentiments are not in favour not becuz they've shown poor performance..
Now its nail biting time till the market outlook shows bullishness.. This is like a dead cat bounce time to time..

10Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Mon Jul 18, 2011 6:25 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:My thinking is; the companies that are under VONE umbrella are high performance companies.. Look at th revenues of LFIN, SAMP, RCL.. for the last financial year.. Holder of these companies really should be shining on its value, the share value when these are doing well..
But the question is; market has taken a beating.. All these companies have gone down drastically just becuz the market sentiments are not in favour not becuz they've shown poor performance..
Now its nail biting time till the market outlook shows bullishness.. This is like a dead cat bounce time to time..

the thing is if you want to buy LFIN, RCL, SAMP you buy those companies. They're fairly liquid companies, i don't see much point in investing in those companies vicariously.

11Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Mon Jul 18, 2011 7:16 pm

rocksan

rocksan
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:
@smallville wrote:My thinking is; the companies that are under VONE umbrella are high performance companies.. Look at th revenues of LFIN, SAMP, RCL.. for the last financial year.. Holder of these companies really should be shining on its value, the share value when these are doing well..
But the question is; market has taken a beating.. All these companies have gone down drastically just becuz the market sentiments are not in favour not becuz they've shown poor performance..
Now its nail biting time till the market outlook shows bullishness.. This is like a dead cat bounce time to time..

the thing is if you want to buy LFIN, RCL, SAMP you buy those companies. They're fairly liquid companies, i don't see much point in investing in those companies vicariously.


Anyway SAMP is not under VONE - Dammika Perera is one of the directors in Sampath Bank board that's it

12Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Mon Jul 18, 2011 7:25 pm

player

player
Moderator
Moderator
bcoz of this shit VONE,my LFIN stagnant in 170 levels,if no VONE,defa LFIN at least will reach 175 Sad
every push will have to exercise its pull back eventually,....
Ex-CDIC,SINI,CSF,PALM...etc
BLUE and many more are on the cards

13Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Mon Jul 18, 2011 8:41 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@rocksan wrote:
@mono wrote:
@smallville wrote:My thinking is; the companies that are under VONE umbrella are high performance companies.. Look at th revenues of LFIN, SAMP, RCL.. for the last financial year.. Holder of these companies really should be shining on its value, the share value when these are doing well..
But the question is; market has taken a beating.. All these companies have gone down drastically just becuz the market sentiments are not in favour not becuz they've shown poor performance..
Now its nail biting time till the market outlook shows bullishness.. This is like a dead cat bounce time to time..

the thing is if you want to buy LFIN, RCL, SAMP you buy those companies. They're fairly liquid companies, i don't see much point in investing in those companies vicariously.


Anyway SAMP is not under VONE - Dammika Perera is one of the directors in Sampath Bank board that's it

VONE has 14.99% of SAMP. See VONE prospectus p.24. Cost of per share investment in SAMP, after adjusting for script dividend, is Rs 294.75 (based on pp.104-105). Which is now trading at 236. VONE has 22,917,200 shares of SAMP as per the prospectus (before script dividends).

The unrealized loss from this investment at the moment is 1,377,288,473.78 (=22917200/43.39*44.39*236-6910395270). That is 20% loss on investment.

14Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Mon Jul 18, 2011 8:43 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
@rocksan wrote:
@mono wrote:
@smallville wrote:My thinking is; the companies that are under VONE umbrella are high performance companies.. Look at th revenues of LFIN, SAMP, RCL.. for the last financial year.. Holder of these companies really should be shining on its value, the share value when these are doing well..
But the question is; market has taken a beating.. All these companies have gone down drastically just becuz the market sentiments are not in favour not becuz they've shown poor performance..
Now its nail biting time till the market outlook shows bullishness.. This is like a dead cat bounce time to time..

the thing is if you want to buy LFIN, RCL, SAMP you buy those companies. They're fairly liquid companies, i don't see much point in investing in those companies vicariously.


Anyway SAMP is not under VONE - Dammika Perera is one of the directors in Sampath Bank board that's it

VONE has 14.99% of SAMP. See VONE prospectus p.24. Cost of per share investment in SAMP, after adjusting for script dividend, is Rs 294.75 (based on pp.104-105). Which is now trading at 236. VONE has 22,917,200 shares of SAMP as per the prospectus (before script dividends).

The unrealized loss from this investment at the moment is 1,377,288,473.78 (=22917200/43.39*44.39*236-6910395270). That is 20% loss on investment.

didn't dammika simply trasfer his SAMP shares into VONE. i can remember this cross. it crossed at 300 when the share price was 260ish.

15Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Mon Jul 18, 2011 8:54 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@rocksan wrote:
@mono wrote:
@smallville wrote:My thinking is; the companies that are under VONE umbrella are high performance companies.. Look at th revenues of LFIN, SAMP, RCL.. for the last financial year.. Holder of these companies really should be shining on its value, the share value when these are doing well..
But the question is; market has taken a beating.. All these companies have gone down drastically just becuz the market sentiments are not in favour not becuz they've shown poor performance..
Now its nail biting time till the market outlook shows bullishness.. This is like a dead cat bounce time to time..

the thing is if you want to buy LFIN, RCL, SAMP you buy those companies. They're fairly liquid companies, i don't see much point in investing in those companies vicariously.


Anyway SAMP is not under VONE - Dammika Perera is one of the directors in Sampath Bank board that's it

VONE has 14.99% of SAMP. See VONE prospectus p.24. Cost of per share investment in SAMP, after adjusting for script dividend, is Rs 294.75 (based on pp.104-105). Which is now trading at 236. VONE has 22,917,200 shares of SAMP as per the prospectus (before script dividends).

The unrealized loss from this investment at the moment is 1,377,288,473.78 (=22917200/43.39*44.39*236-6910395270). That is 20% loss on investment.

didn't dammika simply trasfer his SAMP shares into VONE. i can remember this cross. it crossed at 300 when the share price was 260ish.

Yes. That is why the prospectus says the cost of investment is 6,910,395,270. That is per share cost is 301.5 (1.5 may be the transaction cost).

16Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Tue Jul 19, 2011 9:19 am

sanjee

sanjee
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@salt wrote:
@Academic wrote:
In the last hour of today's trading VONE sellers showed a panic behavior, just like this is the last day of trading VONE? To me this is an indication of lack of confidence in the market. What do you think?

Agreed. Though VONE has regained , it was fake and manulpulated rally, which can not sustain on its own. Further, it alone can not raise the market confidence which has been quite negative in the recent past.

if vone is fake and manipulated what can you say about current price of SHL?

VONE pp & ipo is same.
SHL pp 140 m @ 7.20 & ipo 140 m shares @ 29...

anyway if vone fell below 30 i will definitely buy..

17Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Tue Jul 19, 2011 1:52 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sanjee wrote:
@salt wrote:
@Academic wrote:
In the last hour of today's trading VONE sellers showed a panic behavior, just like this is the last day of trading VONE? To me this is an indication of lack of confidence in the market. What do you think?

Agreed. Though VONE has regained , it was fake and manulpulated rally, which can not sustain on its own. Further, it alone can not raise the market confidence which has been quite negative in the recent past.

if vone is fake and manipulated what can you say about current price of SHL?

VONE pp & ipo is same.
SHL pp 140 m @ 7.20 & ipo 140 m shares @ 29...

anyway if vone fell below 30 i will definitely buy..

If you are not an experienced trader, it is better not to enter this just because it is trading below 30. Round figures like 30, 40, 100, etc. do not have any value in determining fair-value of a share. Even I do not see why ASI should bounce back at round figures like 6700, 6500, etc., IMHO.

18Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Tue Jul 19, 2011 1:55 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
@sanjee wrote:
@salt wrote:
@Academic wrote:
In the last hour of today's trading VONE sellers showed a panic behavior, just like this is the last day of trading VONE? To me this is an indication of lack of confidence in the market. What do you think?

Agreed. Though VONE has regained , it was fake and manulpulated rally, which can not sustain on its own. Further, it alone can not raise the market confidence which has been quite negative in the recent past.

if vone is fake and manipulated what can you say about current price of SHL?

VONE pp & ipo is same.
SHL pp 140 m @ 7.20 & ipo 140 m shares @ 29...

anyway if vone fell below 30 i will definitely buy..

If you are not an experienced trader, it is better not to enter this just because it is trading below 30. Round figures like 30, 40, 100, etc. do not have any value in determining fair-value of a share. Even I do not see why ASI should bounce back at round figures like 6700, 6500, etc., IMHO.

we like round figures. so you generally see alot of action around such numbers.

19Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Tue Jul 19, 2011 2:02 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Psycho! A pair of shoes marked as 999.99 is cheaper than 1000. confused

20Is today the last day of trading VONE? Empty Re: Is today the last day of trading VONE? Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:45 pm

sanjee

sanjee
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Academic wrote:
@sanjee wrote:
@salt wrote:
@Academic wrote:
In the last hour of today's trading VONE sellers showed a panic behavior, just like this is the last day of trading VONE? To me this is an indication of lack of confidence in the market. What do you think?

Agreed. Though VONE has regained , it was fake and manulpulated rally, which can not sustain on its own. Further, it alone can not raise the market confidence which has been quite negative in the recent past.

if vone is fake and manipulated what can you say about current price of SHL?

VONE pp & ipo is same.
SHL pp 140 m @ 7.20 & ipo 140 m shares @ 29...


anyway if vone fell below 30 i will definitely buy..

If you are not an experienced trader, it is better not to enter this just because it is trading below 30. Round figures like 30, 40, 100, etc. do not have any value in determining fair-value of a share. Even I do not see why ASI should bounce back at round figures like 6700, 6500, etc., IMHO.

what i meant that it is worth to buy @ below 30 , not just because a round figure..anyway you cant exactly value a share something like like 29.75 etc; so you need to have a some figure in your mind.

so can you exactly tell me the real value of the VONE ?? is it 25.25 0r 25.50 0r 29.25 Embarassed Embarassed

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