THE COLOMBO FORT LAND & BUILDING PLC (CFLB.N0000)

The Colombo Fort Land & Building PLC is engaged in real estate and property development, management of an investment portfolio and the provision of management services. The Company operates in five segments: Trading of Consumer Products, Trading of Industrial Products, Leisure, Plantations and Others. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of chemicals, paints, hardware, building materials and packaging; manufacturing and marketing of consumer disposables, food and beverage products; marketing and distribution of pharmaceuticals; marketing of motor vehicles and accessories, and the provision of vehicle maintenance services. In addition, the Company involves in the operation of tourist hotels and inbound tour operations; production, processing and marketing of tea, rubber and desiccated coconut, and management of investment portfolios. Its subsidiaries include Agarapatana Plantations Limited, Kotagala Plantations PLC and Marawila Resorts PLC.

CFLB prices have gone up so much, there is a rumor in the market that there is a rights issue or split. Is it true? do you think it is worth buying this company at this price. Also what do you think of lankem and cw mackie.

CFLB 6mts ended Sep'10 profit after tax was up by 1628% to 0.567Mn also EPS Rs.8.82. No of issued share are only 36MN of which 84% i.e 30.2MN in the hands of Institutions and the bal 16% i.e only 5.8MN in the hands of the public. Profit for year end could be predicted at least Rs 2.2 BN then EPS would be >Rs.60/-. This is one of the best in the market. With compare to the other company's in the market the price of a share still undervalue and it should be reached ???? 4 digit mark..

Commented by a reader @ Srilankaequity.com chatbox

It's seems like silent collection is going.

As discussed above, CFLB has the potential to go up to Rs 1000/= based on its earnings, Profit. CFLB is expected to make a Group profit of about Rs 2,5 bn. Breakdown is expected to be Lankem Rs 1bn, Kotagala Rs 800mn, CW Mackie Rs 250mn, Hotels Rs 70mn etc..

CFLB owns the entire group including Lankem. Please find below the Group: structure.

Nice explanation....
thank U

wouldnt LCEY trade higher ? being the largest contributor to CFLBs eps value especially in the third quarter. pls correct me if im wrong. Plus an year ended profit of 1Billion for LCEY accounts for a december eps of 31.6

I think CFLB easily can pass 500 now

Hi Quibit,

6 months EPS is 8.82. So price of 1000 can be justifiable? appreciate ur comments.

Eps as for the last quarter(Q3:10) = 3.70
Annualized EPS = 3.70*4= 14.8
Market pric = 455
PER = 455/14.8 = 30.7
Sector PE = 34.04

Market value as for the Sector OE value = 34.04*14.8 = 454.08

MACD = 60
Signal = 48
RSI = 86

Eps as for the last quarter(Q3:10) = 3.70
Annualized EPS = 3.70*4= 14.8
Market pric = 455
PER = 455/14.8 = 30.7
Sector PE = 34.04
Market value as for the Sector OE value = 34.04*14.8 = 454.08

According to the present conditions this is overbought.
Please corect me if I'm wrong, also appreciate if you can give a explanation on the figures since Im not a fundamental expert

Tkz

@dulandesilva wrote:Eps as for the last quarter(Q3:10) = 3.70
Annualized EPS = 3.70*4= 14.8
Market pric = 455
PER = 455/14.8 = 30.7
Sector PE = 34.04

Market value as for the Sector OE value = 34.04*14.8 = 454.08

MACD = 60
Signal = 48
RSI = 86

Eps as for the last quarter(Q3:10) = 3.70
Annualized EPS = 3.70*4= 14.8
Market pric = 455
PER = 455/14.8 = 30.7
Sector PE = 34.04
Market value as for the Sector OE value = 34.04*14.8 = 454.08

According to the present conditions this is overbought.
Please corect me if I'm wrong, also appreciate if you can give a explanation on the figures since Im not a fundamental expert

Tkz

EPS for the 6 months ended is 8.82. so annualized EPS is 17.64, so the approximate price could be,

17.64*34 ( sector PE) = 600.

But, this is based on the sector PE. So how come this 1000 story came? Appreciate if someone give clarifications if the valuation for 1000 is justifiable.
cheers.

The story i have heard is that they have alot of land on lease around fort that has not been revalued for 30 odd years. now if these people actually have 5-6 acres of land in fort that would be worth billions now and many more billions in the future with the fort expansion project. that is why the share is going up. I'm going to go and see if i can actually find this land next week.

I do have a large holding of CFLB and i have no way of verifying what i have said. so please take my comment with a grain of salt and try to do your own research. Don't jump into this share willy nilly as it is quite overbought at the moment and can easily loose 40-50 rupees of it's value.

I have doubts whether their EPS can justify their current price, but if this land story is true the company can also be evaluated like a real estate company with their book value being more important

@mono wrote:The story i have heard is that they have alot of land on lease around fort that has not been revalued for 30 odd years. now if these people actually have 5-6 acres of land in fort that would be worth billions now and many more billions in the future with the fort expansion project. that is why the share is going up. I'm going to go and see if i can actually find this land next week.

I do have a large holding of CFLB and i have no way of verifying what i have said. so please take my comment with a grain of salt and try to do your own research. Don't jump into this share willy nilly as it is quite overbought at the moment and can easily loose 40-50 rupees of it's value.

I have doubts whether their EPS can justify their current price, but if this land story is true the company can also be evaluated like a real estate company with their book value being more important

Thanks mono. Good that you share the revaluation thing. I didnt know that up to now. anyway it seems risky entering now. will see if prices come down. tks.

thanks for the info mono..
but I wish I could get that news when CFLB trade around 190..
it went up too fast..
now too late for me..
you got it around 340 right??

dulandesilva,

you have taken Q2 result as Q3.Q3 still no release and everybody waiting for that.

thanks for correcting me kuk83.

What is the most accurate EPS value to consider...6 month value or the quarter value when calculating(in general)

tkz again

CFLB EPS for the two quarters ending 30/09/2010 was 8.82, however, one cannot simple double this to yield an annualized EPS of 17.64 since the Q4 of 2010 will show a considerable increase in profits. Just have a look at what exactly their holding structure is: https://servimg.com/view/16108723/3 (Kudos to Quibit for compiling this)

If we apply average profit increases that we have seen in recently released results, it is safe to assume that CFLB will yield an annualized EPS of at least 30-35, if not considerably more. Personally I expect them to announce an EPS of 20+ for the last quarter alone. Assuming the former (not the latter), a share price of 800-1000 is very realistic and I presume it will hit this (with a few ups and downs along the way) latest with their Q1 2011 results. This is not an advice, just my opinion. We will know for sure within a week or two when their results are out.

@knowledge wrote:CFLB EPS for the two quarters ending 30/09/2010 was 8.82, however, one cannot simple double this to yield an annualized EPS of 17.64 since the Q4 of 2010 will show a considerable increase in profits. Just have a look at what exactly their holding structure is: https://servimg.com/view/16108723/3 (Kudos to Quibit for compiling this)

If we apply average profit increases that we have seen in recently released results, it is safe to assume that CFLB will yield an annualized EPS of at least 30-35, if not considerably more. Personally I expect them to announce an EPS of 20+ for the last quarter alone. Assuming the former (not the latter), a share price of 800-1000 is very realistic and I presume it will hit this (with a few ups and downs along the way) latest with their Q1 2011 results. This is not an advice, just my opinion. We will know for sure within a week or two when their results are out.

EPS for last two qtrs is 8.82, roughly, 4.5 for a qtr. Then, to EPS of 20 for the last qtr is a 500% increase. what's the reason to such as increase? pls clarify.

CFLB has alot of plantations & agriculture related companies under it's wing. You can't just take past EPS and multiply it to get CFLB future performance. It's not that simple, you need to look at those sectors and figure out how they're doing and then forecast quarter by quarter.

Agree with Knowledge ...CFLB EPS for the first 6 months is 8.82 .Since CFLb has a low free float of 36 Million shares any up surge in profit results in the EPS moving up considerably. When you look at Segment revenue it has doubled from 09 t0 10 with all their business segments doing extremely well . Out of the 11 segments only two are making losses which are Construction and Hotels (we all know how these two segments are set to boom). I to feel that that their anualised EPS Should settle between 30 and 35 . Even if you take the PE at 20 well the results will speak for themselves and the share should trade between 600 and 700 ...don't for get that they have a massive land bank in fort that has not been revalued in years so they are sitting on a massive Land bank. PER for growth sectors are usually higher as people are willing to pay more for such shares. The other factor is that only 5 million plus shares are actively traded as 85% share holding is with the top 20 share holders of the firm . If CFLB has to move forward another thing they might do is offer a rights issue or script issue to increase the Free float which at the moment really doesn't do justice to it's rising status. they will need to increase it sooner rather than later. an estimate is that
they will top one billion in profits in the last two quarters with the 3rd quarter expected to do around 700 million if their anualised profit tops 1.5billion then we are looking at an EPs of around 40 . All depends on this quarters results.

However the risks would be that like any company with low liquidity the share price can come down as much if there is any negativity with regard to the share i.e BFL when it drops it drops but it consolidates and rises.

The bull signals are there FOR CFLB and its main group companies....lets see when the latest quarter results are out.

Yes past performance as important can not be taken in to consideration when calculating current or future trends..as in the case of CFLB go in to the individual segments and you can gauge where the company is headed. quite a few growth segments in their portfolio.

Guys what do you think about CFLB.I feel it can move up agin why because I noticed the
Trading patern is unusual.

well my friends, the CFLB interim financial statement can be downloaded from the CSE website.
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/504_1297677052538.12.10%20CFLB.pdf

I leave it to you to argue whether the growth justifies a 170% increase in share price seen since the start of the year.

LCEY eps for the quarter 23.63

impressive!

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/497_1297674897479..%202010.PDF

@mono wrote:LCEY eps for the quarter 23.63

impressive!

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/497_1297674897479..%202010.PDF

hey mono, you were thinking what would happen if LCEY doent earn EPS of 10 right?

I think Lcey exceeded expectations and CFLB has stayed on course. Lets keep an eye on segmental profits during the next few quarters. Over all I think CFLB and the group are on the right track if they can go in for a split or even rights to spice up things well its going to be a nice couple of quarters in the future.

Happy Hunting!